5. Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
6. Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other General election 2007 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 6 th Feb 2011 If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
7. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT Core figures 6 th Feb 2011 Excluding undecided 2007 Election Results % % % Fine Gael 28 35 27 Labour 17 22 10 Fianna Fáil 13 17 42 Sinn Féin 11 13 7 Green Party 2 2 5 Independents/ Others 9 11 6 Undecided 20
8. Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) The Spiral of Silence Assumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them. To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election. We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time.
9. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 35% 22% 17% Independent 11% 2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 13% 2010
10. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 35% 22% 17% Independent 13% 2% 11%
11. General Election 2011 Run Up and Campaign 1 st Preference Poll Trends ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs Independent Fianna Fáil Labour Fine Gael Independent Sinn Féin Green Party
12. The Battle for Floating Voters Decided, but might still change mind Completely Decided Completely Undecided Gave 1 st pref. not decided 40% Possible Fine Gael Voters Possible Labour Voters Have voters made up their minds? Cross over of possible voters between Fine Gael & Labour
13. Second Preference among First preference voters FG % FF % Labour % % Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Independents Undecided First Preference Second Preference TOTAL % Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Nov 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Nov 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Nov 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Nov 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Nov 2010
14. Attitude to 1 st Preference Voting for this Party at Next General Election FG % FF % Labour % % % (Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 913) Definitely Will Likely To Might Do Probably Won’t Definitely Won’t D/K Refused Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Dec 2010
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