Ed Miller's April 2014 video for Red Chip Poker

1. Ed Mi l ler
EVERYONE IS TERRIBLE
AT POKER
GET THE VIDEO AT

2. WHY SO MEAN, ED?
 Massive, widespread delusion about poker ski l l.
 Understanding the true state of the game may inspire you.

3. CHESS VS. POKER
 Chess is very hard.
 People study for years and improve incrementally over time.
 Most people cap out at a cer tain strength.
 Fairly wide player base.
 Wide, wide ski l l disparity between the el ite players and the
vast majority of players.
 No $$$ in it unless you are top 0.01%.

4. POKER VS. CHESS
 Poker is very hard. (Simi lar to chess)
 People study for years and improve incrementally over time.
 Most people cap out at a cer tain strength.
 Wide player base. (Even wider than chess)
 Wide, wide ski l l disparity between the el ite players and the
vast majority of players.
 Lots of $$$ in it, even if you are just top 10%.

5. THE CLUB PLAYER
 They play on a regular basis at a local chess club and travel
regionally to play in tournaments.
 They study the game with some level of interest.
 They are competitive amongst themselves.
 They basically have absolutely no shot against any el ite or
semi -elite player.

6. POKER REGS ARE CLUB PLAYERS
 Any reg in a commonly of fered poker game (up to roughly $2-
$4 onl ine and $10- $ 2 5 l i ve ) i s a p o ke r “ c l u b p l ayer”.
 These are players of varying ski l l who take the game seriously
and invest regular time into it.
 They stratify—$5-$10 regs wi l l tend to be a good bit better
than $1-$3 regs.
 None of these players have any legitimate shot against el ite
or semi -elite players.

7. POKER HIDES ITS STRATA
 The random element of poker hides its deep stratification.
 Club chess players wi l l feel overmatched against
grandmasters almost immediately.
 I t t a ke s l o ng e r fo r a p o ke r “ g ame” to p l ay o u t s u c h t h a t t h e
ski l l dif ference becomes clear.
 The ski l l dif ference is just as stark and unforgiving.

8. EVERYONE IS TERRIBLE AT POKER
 E l i te p l ayer s are n’ t i n you r g ames .
 The people who are in your games are at best club level
p l ayer s , a nd i t ’ s p o s s i b le to h ave a n e no rmo u s s k i ll a d vant age
over them.
 I f yo u fe e l l i ke s ome p l ayer s i n yo u r g ame a re “ to u gh” a nd
“ s ol i d, ” i t ’ s an i nd i c at ion t h at you too are a c l u b - level player.
 Go o d news : I t ’ s f a i rly e a s y to imp rove a c o u p l e l evels a nd
learn to pummel everyone in your game.

9. TIME FOR MYTHBUSTING

10. WHY MYTHBUSTING
 Because these myths persist among regular players, spread
from person to person.
 I f you bel ieve and fol low these myths, you wi l l not learn to be
better than your fel low club- level players.
 E l i te p l ayer s j u s t d o n’ t t h i nk t h i s way a b o u t no - l imit h o l d ’ em.
You should know that.

11. MYTH #1. FIVE AND TEN RULE
 Five and ten rule has to do with percentage of stack size to
cal l preflop with suited connectors, smal l pairs, and the l ike.
 Focuses only on a single component of hand value: implied
odds.
 Imp l ies t h a t yo u wa nt to “ ke ep p ot sma l l” wi t h t h e s e h a nd s .

12. MYTH #1. FIVE AND TEN RULE (CONT.)
 PROBLEMS
 You check-fold too frequently postflop.
 Your preflop calling and 3-betting ranges get unbalanced.
 Unbalances postflop aggression, making it easy to fold to your
strength.
 REALITY
 These hands aren’t special. They belong in well -designed preflop
ranges that scale with stack size, position, and action.

13. MYTH #2. FOLD EARLY TO AVOID GETTING
OUTPLAYED
 This is when people fold relatively strong hands from (usually)
out of position to avoid being outplayed on a later street.
 A l s o k nown a s , “ I f yo u c a l l now, yo u h ave to c a l l t h e ri ve r to o . ”
 E.g. , the out of position player bets the flop, the button makes
a smal l raise (compared to the pot and remaining stack
sizes) , and bettor folds to avoid being outplayed.

14. MYTH #2. FOLD EARLY TO AVOID GETTING
 PROBLEMS
OUTPLAYED
 You just outplayed yourself. You allowed your opponent to push you
off too large a percentage of hands with a very small investment.
 If you find yourself wanting to do this a lot, there’s a good chance
your out of position hand range is poorly constructed going in.
 REALITY
 Ever yone is terrible at poker. MAKE THEM OUTPLAY YOU. DON’T GIVE
THEM CREDIT.
 It’s frequently correct to call on one street with the plan to fold
unimproved to a bigger bet on the next street.
 You have to build bet-calling and bet-folding ranges for common
situations before you sit in a game.

15. MYTH #3. PLAYING TO REDUCE VARIANCE
 This takes a lot of forms, but usually it involves making a fold
instead of playing a hand out to avoid a potential big loss.
 Sometimes it involves l imping or flat -cal ling preflop with a
hand to avoid bui lding a big pot.
 “ I am wa i t ing fo r a b et ter s p ot . ”
 “ I l i ke to s e e t h e fl op fi r s t b e fore I c ommi t . ”
 “ I wi l l ru n b et ter/ play b i g ger i f I p l ay to re d u c e my va ri anc e. ”

16. MYTH #3. PLAYING TO REDUCE VARIANCE
 PROBLEMS
 Everything?
 None of these plays benefit you in any way. They just cause you to play
poker worse.
 Calling when you should raise rewards your opponents for
overaggression.
 Folding when you should call also rewards your opponents for
overaggression.
 Players tend to take these lines the most in AGGRESSIVE games. That’s
bad.
 REALITY
 Want to reduce your variance? You got three options:
 Run it twice
 Buy in for less
 Play smaller
(CONT.)

17. WHAT’S NOT A MY TH?
 Unfor t u nately, many of t h e “ ru l es of t h umb ” you may h ave
learned about no- l imit h o l d ’ em are myths.
 Eight years ago, these rules of thumb were good ways to get
your ski l l level to a point where you could abuse the total ly
clueless.
 Tod ay, mos t re g u lar p l ayer s k now t h e s e “ ru les ” and wh e n you
play by them, you play no better than anyone else.

18. WHAT’S NOT A MY TH? (CONT.)
 In chess, one of the best ways to get better is to do chess
puzzles. Do some every day for six months, and you wi l l
improve.
 I n p o ke r, yo u ne e d to d o s omet h ing s imi lar. I t ’ s c a l l ed ra ng e -
bui lding exercises.
 I describe the process in detail in my latest book, P o ke r’ s 1%.
The basic idea is that you star t from basic, mathematical
principles and bui ld a strategy from preflop through the river
for playing every hand in the deck.
 Every day, you take 1- 3 h a nd s t h a t yo u ’ ve p l ayed a nd d o t h e s e
range-building exercises.
 Do one exercise a day for six months, and you wi l l improve.

19. WHAT’S NEXT, ED?
 I plan to focus on the thought processes of regular players
and construct and deconstruct their strategies, strengths, and
weaknesses.
 My goal is to show you exactly what I mean when I say
everyone is terrible at poker. Once you see that clearly, you
can rise above your level and really star t making $$$.