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STEMinars
- 1. STEMinars Robert D. Cormia Foothill College
- 11. Solar Energy - earth’s Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
- 12. 250 years of Carbon Emissions It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll burn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?
- 13. Rising CO 2 over 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html see-saw swings in CO 2 result from seasonal ‘biological production’
- 14. Temperatures over 1000 Years http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
- 15. Ice Cores – Story of Vostok
- 17. GHGs and Vostok Data James Kirchner Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley
- 18. Dials on the Thermostat GHGs force energy into the planet, surface warming leads to feedbacks Thermal inertia Climate feedbacks GHGs CO 2 CH 4 Ice / albedo Water vapor Clouds Temperature
- 19. Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming Margaret S. Torn and John Harte AGU GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L10703 Effect of Climate Feedbacks
- 21. Understanding CO 2 and pH CO 2 + CaCO 3 + H 2 O => 2(HCO 3 ) - + 2Ca 2+ Dissolving CO 2 into seawater produces bicarbonate and hydrogen ions – decreasing pH
- 24. Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’ http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
- 25. World Oil Production History
- 26. Oil Production – Reserves From ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
- 31. US GDP/VMT VMT data from green car congress => http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/us-vehicle-mile.html
- 33. Wind Power – Real Power
- 35. Vanadium redox flow cells Store excess power for later use! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanadium_redox_battery
- 38. How Fuel Cells Work A fuel cell is a device that uses hydrogen (or hydrogen-rich fuel) and oxygen to create electricity. Fuel cells are more energy-efficient than combustion engines and the hydrogen used to power them can come from a variety of sources. If pure hydrogen is used as a fuel, fuel cells emit only heat and water, eliminating concerns about air pollutants or greenhouse gases. http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/fc_animation_text.html
- 40. Do Math in Public! Use numbers in your conversation to tell a story. Numeracy and computation is how we learn and test both statistical and empirical (causal) relationships.
- 41. Exploratorium
- 43. Creative Commons Licenses CreativeCommons.org
Hinweis der Redaktion
- M. King Hubbert’s famous 1956 prediction that oil production would peak in the US in the early 1970s – which in fact it did. Followers of Hubbert then calculated Peak oil production around 2004 – 2010. After that, more expensive to find / refine Not the end of oil, the end of easy oil! Economies dependent on oil / gas will struggle More expensive to find. After the midpoint, oil will be both technically challenging to recover, and more environmentally damaging, as with the tar sands in Alberta Canada. Ironically, the high price of oil will drive the exploration and recovery of more difficult oil.
- The symmetric approach to world oil production follows the curves seen for US oil production, and coal production in Pennsylvania. This curve is in stark contrast to the expected 2% annual increase in demand based on economic development in China, India, as well as historical curves showing 2% CAGR. Using those curves, world oil demand is expected to increase by 50% during the period 2005 to 2025. Clearly, history has shown us that what we have observed in regional markets (North America) is more likely the better predictor of future oil production than simply estimating production based on CAGR demand.
- M. King Hubert developed a mathematical approach to modeling oil production based on discovery curves, assumptions about the size of oil fields, and the shape of production and discovery curves (thought to be Gaussian curves, based on experience). These curves have been validated for US oil production, oil production in Norway, and coal production in Pennsylvania. In all these cases, production of assets continues, but becomes more expensive. World oil production references ‘conventional’ petroleum assets, but does factor in tar sands in Canada.
- Oil production minus reserves shows the seriousness of the oil reserves problem. As demand for petroleum and gas increases while reserves grow slowly, and costs of production increase, could lead to serious deficits in liquid fuel, as well as natural gas, increasingly sought as a replacement for coal. Based on this graph, we are producing from 10 to 15 billion barrels more a year than are being added to reserves, a number increasing by 1 to 1.5 billion barrels every year. By 2025, that deficit will increase to 45 to 50 billion barrels a year, equal to total annual oil production. Using another method of calculation, starting with roughly one trillion barrels of oil in 2000, and subtracting an amount equal to 80 million barrels per day, and increasing by 2% per year, we will run out of oil in 2025 if no new reserves are found. Additionally, the ‘second trillion barrels of oil’ will be much more problematic than the first trillion, which could lead to both shortages and price spikes during the period from 2005 to 2030.
- Wind power is real power. Germany and Europe have made significant investments in wind, where it can supply as much as 40% of electrical demands (peak power). Using methane as backup / peaking power and wind as a primary source. The cost of wind makes it very attractive – new GE wind turbines with 3.6 MWhr sell for 3.6 million dollars, or roughly $1 a watt, and at least 5 to 10 times cheaper than solar installations.