Presentation of Dr. Tolentino Moya, Professor, Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, University of the Philippines Diliman, during the UP Manila Conference on Global Climate Change, held October 22-23, 2009 at the Pearl Garden Hotel, Manila.
Making communications land - Are they received and understood as intended? we...
Plenary 1 - The Science of Climate Change
1. Living with Global Warming Tolentino B. Moya, Ph D Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology College of Science, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City
38. Vulnerability information systems El Ni ñ o - La Ni ñ a Vulnerability Map Support for Greenhouse Gas Inventory www.sc.chula.ac.th/courseware/2303105/BBAPart4_2n. ppt
40. Global warming impacts Agriculture: Changes in crop yields Irrigation demands, Productivity Forests: Change in Ecologies, Geographic range of species, and Health and productivity Coastal Areas: Erosion and flooding Inundation Change in wetlands Water Resources: Changes in water supply and water quality Competition/Trans-border Issues Human Health: Weather related mortality Infectious disease Air quality - respiratory illness Industry and Energy: Changes in Energy demand Product demand & Supply
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42. Thermal impacts -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1920 1960 2000 Year Temperature Change (°C) 1920 1960 2000 Year Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Land Ocean
52. Cost to stabilize CO 2 concentrations 450 550 650 750 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Carbon Dioxide (ppm) Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)
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60. … A sustainable future … A sustainable future The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Alan Kay (Inventor of OS for Apple Computers) Maraming Salamat Po Magandang Araw
Hinweis der Redaktion
There’s no issue that’s as hotly contested and debated in science, politics, and on the street as global warming. But, all scientists, researchers, academicians, skeptics, deniers, people on the street all agree that the Earth, our very own Planet is warming… The global average surface temperature has indeed increased, on the one hand, as a consequence anthropogenic emissions acc to global warming believers and champions. On the other hand, g lobal warming skeptics emphasized research indicating that a significant part of the 20 th -century temperature change is due to solar activity influence. Specifically, an increase of 1 o C in a period of 100 To 200 years would be considered global warming. Over the course of a single century, even 0.4 o C Would be considered significant. FAQ 3.1, Figure 1. (Top) Annual global mean observed temperatures 1 (black dots) along with simple fits to the data. The left hand axis shows anomalies relative to the 1961 to 1990 average and the right hand axis shows the estimated actual temperature (°C). Linear trend fits to the last 25 (yellow), 50 (orange), 100 (purple) and 150 years (red) are shown, and correspond to 1981 to 2005, 1956 to 2005, 1906 to 2005, and 1856 to 2005, respectively. Note that for shorter recent periods, the slope is greater, Indicating accelerated warming. The blue curve is a smoothed depiction to capture the decadal variations. To give an idea of whether the fluctuations are meaningful, decadal 5% to 95% (light grey) error ranges about that line are given (accordingly, annual values do exceed those limits). Results from climate models driven by estimated radiative forcings for the 20th century (Chapter 9) suggest that there was little change prior to about 1915, and that a substantial fraction of the early 20th-century change was contributed by naturally occurring influences including solar radiation changes, volcanism and natural variability. From about 1940 to 1970 the increasing industrialisation following World War II increased pollution in the Northern Hemisphere, contributing to cooling, and increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases dominate the observed warming after the mid-1970s. 1 From the HadCRUT3 data set.
However, given the increasing concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, earth’s surface temperature is predicted to rise up to 7 o C. For instance, these figures show the variation in CO 2 and temperature during both the 400,000 years. The rise and fall in temperature correlates very well with the increase and decrease of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere. Despite the high correlation, GHG skeptics emphasized that temperature increase/decrease trail or lag behind the recorded increase/decrease in CO 2 concentration. they found an opportunity to jump onto climate scientists’ claim that what the Earth is going through now is GHG-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING; some even calling them global warming swindler My own analysis is that this temperature behavior inhere from the TIME LAG characteristic of a dynamic system, like the climate system Increased GHG concentration in the atmosphere, via increased temperature, could disrupt and the climate system and bring about surprises. Climate scientists and researchers input these measured data (temperature and CO2 concentrations) as forcings into climate models first to find out whether they can pospdict historical temperature. Good model performance, allowed them to predict future climate scenarios.
The impacts of global change are not likely to be distributed evenly throughout the world. For instance, the following graph of the world shows that estimates of temperature and precipitation changes very in different parts of the world. Some areas (primarily in the northern latitudes) will experience increased precipitation, whereas other areas will experience decreased precipitation.
Figure TS.18. Annual averages of the global mean sea level based on reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (red), tide gauge measurements since 1950 (blue) and satellite a ltimetry since 1992 (black). Units are in mm relative to the average for 1961 to 1990. Error bars are 90% confidence intervals. {Figure 5.13} Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr 2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic Thermal expansion of oceans Mountain glaciers melting Melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets All Greenland = 7m All Antarctica = 60-70m Just WAIS = 5-6m
FAQ 5.1, Figure 1. Time series of global mean sea level (deviation from the 1980-1999 mean) in the past and as projected for the future. For the period before 1870, global measurements of sea level are not available. The grey shading shows the uncertainty in the estimated long-term rate of sea level change (Section 6.4.3). The red line is a reconstruction of global mean sea level from tide gauges (Section 5.5.2.1), and the red shading denotes the range of variations from a smooth curve. The green line shows global mean sea level observed from satellite altimetry. The blue shading represents the range of model projections for the SRES A1B scenario for the 21st century, relative to the 1980 to 1999 mean, and has been calculated independently from the observations. Beyond 2100, the projections are increasingly dependent on the emissions scenario (see Chapter 10 for a discussion of sea level rise projections for other scenarios considered in this report). Over many centuries or millennia, sea level could rise by several metres (Section 10.7.4).
El Nino and La Nina are extreme phases of naturally occuring climate cycle referred to as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both terms refer to large-scale changes in sea-surface temperature across the eastern tropical Pacific. Usually, sea-surface readings off South America's west coast range from 60-70 deg F (16-21 deg C), while they exceed 80 deg F (27 deg C) in the "warm pool" located in the central and western Pacific. This warm pool expands to cover the tropics during El Nino, but during La Nina, the easterly trade winds strengthen and the cold upwelling along the equator and the West coast of South America intensifies. Sea-surface temperatures along the equator can fall as much as 7 deg F (-14 dg C) below normal. El Nino and La Nina conditions recur every few years and can persist for as long as two years. (source: http://www.noaa.gov) Sources: - Base Map with Administrative Boundaries (UTM Projection), NAMRIA - Field Information Manual on El Nino July 1997, BSWM - 1998 Philippine Statistical Yearbook, NSO - El Nino and La Nina Definition, NOAA Methodology: Degree of Vulnerability of El Nino and La Nina based on PAGASA's Climate Map, slope, flooding and elevation. Note to Users: This map is version 1.0 and is under development. The Manila Observatory would appreciate feedback on the veracity of spatial data. Manila Observatory Support for Greenhouse Gas Inventory Philippine Climate Change Program Development, 1999
If we examine global warming from the perspective of the two hemispheres, we find that temperatures in the northern hemisphere have increased much more than temperatures in the southern hemisphere. So, since two thirds of the earth’s land mass is in the northern hemisphere, we would expect global warming to have its largest impact there. In a similar fashion, temperatures over land masses have increased much more than temperatures over the oceans. This is because the oceans tend to moderate temperature changes.
Figure 5.1. Time series of global annual ocean heat content (10 22 J) for the 0 to 700 m layer. The black curve is updated from Levitus et al. (2005a), with the shading representing the 90% confidence interval. The red and green curves are updates of the analyses by Ishii et al. (2006) and Willis et al. (2004, over 0 to 750 m) respectively, with the error bars denoting the 90% confidence interval. The black and red curves denote the deviation from the 1961 to 1990 average and the shorter green curve denotes the deviation from the average of the black curve for the period 1993 to 2003. Figure 3.8. Annual anomalies (°C) of global average SST (blue curve, begins 1850), NMAT (green curve, begins 1856) and land-surface air temperature (red curve, begins 1850) to 2005, relative to their 1961 to 1990 means (Brohan et al., 2006; Rayner et al., 2006). The smooth curves show decadal variations (see Appendix 3.A). Inset shows the smoothed differences between the land-surface air temperature and SST anomalies (i.e., red minus blue).
Figure 20.13 Natural capital degradation : possible effects of global warming on the geographic range of beech trees based on ecological evidence and computer models. According to one projection, if CO 2 emissions doubled between 1990 and 2050, beech trees (now common throughout the eastern United States) would survive only in a greatly reduced range in northern Maine and southeastern Canada. Similarly, native sugar maples would likely disappear in the northeastern United States. QUESTION: What difference does it make if the range of beech trees changes? (Data from Margaret B. Davis and Catherine Zabinski, University of Minnesota)
Global warming will affect peoples throughout the world. For example, Fewer deaths will result from cold weather, but more deaths will result from heat waves Initially, decreased thermohaline circulation will result in cooler temperatures in North Atlantic. The CO2 fertilization effect will increase crop yields by up to 30% Precipitation changes will result in droughts and famine in some areas and expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union
There are winners and losers in the global warming game…
Depending upon the scenario, the cost to stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations will be expensive (from 200 times the U.S. annual budget) to very expensive (up to 900 times the U.S. annual budget).
Methods of mitigating global warming include Conservation Reduce energy needs, such as electrical usage, petroleum usage, reduced packaging Recycling, which uses less energy to produce products compared to Another way to reduce carbon emissions is to use alternate energy sources, such as Nuclear Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Solar Fusion?
Another promising way to reduce global warming is to store carbon dioxide underground. Carbon dioxide can be pumped into depleted oil and gas reservoirs. In addition, carbon dioxide can be pumped into existing oil and gas deposits to enhance recovery. Another method is to pump carbon dioxide into deep saline formations both offshore and onshore. Carbon dioxide can also be used to enhance methane recovery from coal beds.
In conclusion, Global warming is happening Most of the warming is probably the result of human activities There will be positive but mostly negative repercussions from global warming The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere?
