2. Why study Af-Pak?
• NPR had a discussion on Nov 5th 2009 on the Af-Pak situation.
Pentagon rep was asked who is the enemy?
The person said its Taliban and they are three types:
– Traditional Taliban led by Mullah Omar who were running Afghanistan
before 9/11,
– Haqqani faction of Taliban who are the most ideological faction and
– the Gulbuddin Hekmatyar faction. These are the three types in Afghanistan.
• Next Susan Rice, US Ambassador to UN was asked
– Replied Enemy is Al Qaida being sheltered in Pakistan
• Manmohan Singh said stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan
was of vital importance to India than any other nation as it
stood to be affected more by the turmoil in the two countries
7. External Players
US
Russia Rest of world
Afghanistan
Iran India
Pakistan
8. Perspectives
Indian Perspective:
- Afghanistan shouldn’t become safe haven for terrorists
- Afghanistan shouldn’t become 'strategic depth' for TSP
- Afghanistan should be multi-ethnic, multi-cultural modern state
- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
TSP perspective:
- Afghanistan should have a TSP friendly regime for following reasons:
- Settling Durand Line to prevent loss of NWFP
- Provide strategic depth for
-Terrorist camps
- Hide special weapons
- Hinterland for heroin growing
9. Perspective
• Pashtun Perspective:
- Any ruler in Afghanistan has to be a Pashtun as they created
modern Afghanistan
- Eventually erase Durand line and regain lost lands to British India
- Pashtuns in non-Pashtun areas should not be harassed
Non-Pashtun Perspective:
- Pashtuns should not dominate and impact their sub-nationalism
– Tajik, Hazara, Uzbeg etc..
• US perspective:
- Non Islamist government in Afghanistan to prevent:
- Regrouping of Islamist forces like AlQ & 'bad' Taliban
- Provide bases for US forces for hedge against Central Asia
and fracturing TSP
- Provide base for 'guiding' new Islamist thinking in Central Asia
10. Perspective
• PRC perspective:
- Ensure TSP retains influence in Afghanistan to hedge rising India
- Ensure US is weakened due to Afghanistan to preclude Uigher revolt
- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
Iran perspective:
- Ensure TSP does not dominate Afghanistan
- Ensure balance in Shia (Hazara interests) versus Sunni (Pashtuns) power
- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
Russian perspective:
- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
- Ensure Afghanistan keeps the US occupied
11. Perspective
• Central Asian countries:
- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
EU countries:
- Ensure Afghanistan does not become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
- Ensure Afghanistan is not a heroin producing region
12. Perspective
• Geographic perspective:
- Afghanistan is the pivot of Central Asia
- Pathway to conquer Indian sub-continent or Central Asia
- High mountains and challenging terrain
- Not much arable land. Lot of desert
- Only three rivers: Helmand,Kabul and Herat
History Perspective:
- Afghanistan has been at cross roads of invasions of Indian sub-
continent
- Afghanistan was declared a neutral country between the British and
Tsarist Russia
- Afghanistan has always survived on subsidy from Indo-Gangetic
plains.
- Afghanistan has suffered continuous turmoil and civil war since
1973 if not since Abdur Rehman in late 19th century
13. Consequences of US failure in
Af-Pak
- Extremist Islam wins and will roll over most of the current Islamic
states
- Have high negative impact on Indian sub-continent
- Definite radicalization of TSP with its nuclear weapons
- Uigher uprising in East Turkistan
- Central Asian countries will be radicalized
- PRC will gain Asian domination but lose East Turkistan
- Russia might be rolled back to the Duchy of Muscovy
- Demoralized by the defeat in far away lands the 'malaise' in
American politics could return leading to political wilderness a la
Vietnam
- Drug trade will zoom on the supply side
- World globalization will suffer
- It could lead to loss of leadership as other challengers will emerge
14. Desired Outcomes
• Indian Perspective:
- Maximum acceptable solution is a strong and vibrant Afghanistan
free from Islamist fundamentalism
- Minimum acceptable solution is a Afghanistan free from TSP
influence
• TSP perspective:
- Maximum acceptable solution is Afghanistan incorporated into
TSP
- Minimum acceptable solution: TSP friendly regime in Afghanistan
15. Desired Outcomes
• Pashtun Perspective:
- Maximum acceptable solution: Any ruler in Afghanistan has to be a
Pashtun
- Minimum acceptable solution Any ruler of Afghanistan has to be a
Pashtun.
• Non Pashtun Perspective:
- Maximum acceptable solution Pashtuns should not dominate and impact
their sub-nationalism: Tajik, Hazara, Uzbeg etc.
- Minimum acceptable solution: Pashtuns should include the other ethnic
minorities in government
16. Desired Outcomes
US perspective:
- Maximum acceptable solution: Non Islamist govt in Afghanistan
- Minimum acceptable solution: Friendly regime in place irrespective
of their Islamist credentials.
PRC perspective:
- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure TSP retains influence in
Afghanistan
- Minimum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not
become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
17. Desired Outcomes
• Iran perspective:
- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure TSP does not dominate
Afghanistan
- Minimum acceptable solution: Ensure balance in Shia (Hazara
interests) versus Sunni (Pashtuns) power
Russian perspective:
- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not
become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
- Minimum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not
become base for extremist /"guided" Islam
18. Desired Outcomes
• Central Asian countries:
- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not
become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
- Minimum acceptable solution : Ensure Afghanistan does not
become base for extremist/"guided" Islam
• EU countries:
- Maximum acceptable solution: Ensure Afghanistan does not
become base for extremist/"guided" Islam and drugs production
- Minimum acceptable solution : Ensure Afghanistan does not
become base for extremist/"guided" Islam and drugs production
19. Options
• US leaves Af-Pak
• US stays in Af-Pak
• India increases aid to Afghanistan
– Civil infrastructure and people
– Police and para-military
20. PLAN 11/13/2009
• US increase troop presence and crushes bad Taliban
• Otherwise it will lose and the malaise kicks in
• US manages TSP while doing this
– Not at cost of any other nation
• The good Taliban get regularized into para-military scouts etc.
– Crucial to get them under a uniform and get rid of their tribal dress.
– The Afghan National Army still gets its share of Tajiks and Uzbegs
and Hazaras as top layer to guarantee the ethnic rights
• The Ghilzais and Durranis have to make up and work out a
compromise certified by the loya jirga to ensure Pashtun
solidarity
• An all powers conference to declare Afghan neutrality is crucial
to return
21. PLAN (Continued)
• Afghanistan to buffer status like in the 19th century. This is to
neutralize any dreams of jihadis
• Same time all the ethnic areas will have millat/autonomy status:
Pashtuns, Tajiks and Hazaras and Uzbegs
• The rights of sub-minorities in these areas are guaranteed by
Afghan National Govt eg. Pashtuns in Tajik areas und so weiter
• A G-8/OECD/INDIA and PRC economic program has to be
worked out to stabilize the country. US will have the TSP
economic stabilization program
• A strong advice is to seek Pashtun autonomy in TSP as a self
determination right same as the Kurds in Iraq to satisfy the self
determination rights. as this is related to the Afghan issue
22. Follow-Through
• Obama Plan 11/28/09
– Increase troops (aka Surge)
– Increase diplomatic efforts in region
– Increase pressure on Karzai to integrate Pashtuns
(good vs bad Taliban)
• Results
– Surge in Marjah failed- 2010
– Karzai weakend by US pressure
– Pak arresting Taliban negotiating with Karzai and
delivering them to US as terrorists
23. Robert Blackwill
Plan B
• Withdraw US presence to camps around
Kabul
• Launch periodic drone attacks on Al Qaida
in Afghanistan
• Let Taliban takeover Southern
Afghanistan
• Reduce cost of deployment
• Tell India US wont take care of Indian
interests
24. Consequence of Plan B
• Taliban takeover of Southern Afghanistan
• US presence in Kabul prevents Taliban
takeover
• Taliban will revive Pashtun Nationalism
and move eastwards to erase Durand Line
• Will bring about clash between the
Pashtuns and the TSP
• Could set-off the ‘feared’ Balkanisation
25. Indian Options
• Support the legitimate government in
Kabul
– Karzai Pasthuns and Northern Afghans
• Do nothing else as any involvement will
unite the warring factions
• Balkanization of TSP is not Indian problem
