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                    The Greater Richmond Real
                          Estate Market
                                                     Lacy Williams
                                                    Joyner Fine Properties




Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                1
Background              www.RichmondHousingToday.com



 • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA
   housing Market as well as the National Market.
 • Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from
   Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of
   Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current
   Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to
   www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on
   the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.
 • The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by
   Joyner Fine Properties using Central Virginia Regional Multiple
   Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in November
   2012 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined
   by Joyner Fine Properties as the city of Richmond and the counties
   of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.



Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties   2
www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                        The National Market




Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties   3
US Pending Home Sales                                                  www.RichmondHousingToday.com



    105.0

                           Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12
    100.0


       95.0


       90.0


       85.0


       80.0


       75.0


   The stimulus tax credit expired in April of 2010. There was a sharp drop in the number of sales at that time but the number of
   sales has been rising (with monthly fluctuation) since June of 2010 without government intervention. Forecasts are for the
   number of sales to continue to increase as the economy improves.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                           4
US Inventory of Homes for Sale
                                                                                                                     www.RichmondHousingToday.com



                        10.0
                                                                                  Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12


                         9.0
  Months of Inventory




                         8.0


                         7.0


                         6.0


                         5.0


                         4.0
                             Nov        Jan       Mar       May        Jul       Sep       Nov       Jan       Mar       May        Jul      Sept

                        As the number of sales has gone up, the inventory of available houses for sale has been dropping. The national market is
                        approximately a 6 month inventory which is considered to be a normal market.


Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                            5                                     NAR 10/2012
US Home Prices Y-O-Y Changes
                                                                                                        www.RichmondHousingToday.com




Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12
       As shown above, prices have risen during the past year in the Southeast including Virginia. Prices are still declining in the
       Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                              6                               FHFA 2Q HPI Report
US Home Prices Next Year                                                  www.RichmondHousingToday.com


         3.5
                                                                                                     3.25
                                                    Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12
           3
                                                                         2.8

         2.5
                                      2.44


           2



         1.5



           1



         0.5



           0
                    Home Price Expectation Survey           National Association of Business   WSJ Economic Survey
                                                                      Economists


        Three leading National Groups are forecasting price increases to continue next year.

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                     7
Mortgage Rates Moving Forward
                                                                             www.RichmondHousingToday.com




      “After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are
      expected to creep up slowly in the year ahead, the
      Mortgage Bankers Association predicted.

      Rates on the 30-year fixed-                                Projected Average 30 Year Rate
                                                           4.5
                                                                                             4.4
      rate mortgage are expected                           4.4

      to average 3.8% in the                               4.3
                                                           4.2
      fourth quarter of 2012, rising                       4.1
                                                            4
      to 3.9% in the first quarter                         3.9
                                                                               3.9
                                                                    3.8
      of 2013 and eventually rising                        3.8
                                                           3.7
      to an average 4.4% by the                            3.6

      fourth quarter of next year.”                        3.5
                                                                  2012 4Q     2013 1Q      2013 4Q

               Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties      8                      MarketWatch 10/24/2012
The Cost of Waiting a Year                                                 www.RichmondHousingToday.com



                                                    Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12
                                                     Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12
                                                                            Interest
                    Date                              Price                                                   P&I
                                                                              Rate

                   Today                            $200,000                    3.5%                   $898.09

              2013 4Q                               $204,880                    4.4%                $1,025.96

                                                    Difference in Payment                             $127.87
        With prices rising and the interest rate going up, waiting to buy a house will cost you significantly more. The example above
        shows that waiting just a year will cost you $127.87 more for a $200,000 house.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                 9
US Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
                                                                                                        www.RichmondHousingToday.com


     35%

                                                                   Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12

                          35%
     30%




     25%


                                                                                                                        24%

     20%
              Jan                 Feb               Mar   Apr        May           Jun            Jul          Aug           Sept

           Another positive sign is that the percentage of distressed property sales (including foreclosures and short sales) has been
           declining.

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                             10                                      NAR 10/2012
US Housing Starts                                                   www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                                                             Source: NAR




   Housing starts measure the number of newly constructed homes. The U.S. Population grows by approximately 3 million per
   year (though it is estimated to have slowed to 2 million in 2011). Based on population growth and the need to replace some of
   the demolished housing units, most economists believe about 1.5 million housing units need to be built each year, which also
   happens to be the historical average (shown with the green line).
   In recent years, new home construction has been well below the norm contributing to more job losses in the construction
   industry. Multifamily units are primarily for rentals and this sector is experiencing a recovery due to rising rents.
   Housing starts have risen by 20% so far this year. Falling inventory means that builders need to ramp up production. But many
   smaller builders cannot obtain construction loans. Housing starts are forecast to rise 25% in 2012 and by 50% in 2013.


Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                         11
Housing Facts
                                                                                       www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                     Median Home Prices

                                                          UP 7.3%
                                                         rose in 110 out of 147 MSAs



                           Existing                                           Distressed
                                                                                                       -33%
                           Home Sales +8.6%                                   Properties

                           Existing                                           Mortgage
                           Inventory                -24.4%                                          - .86%
                                                                              Rates
                            Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12     NAR 2nd Quarter 2012 vs. 2nd Quarter 2011
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                  12
www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                           Greater Richmond
                           Housing Market

                         Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of
                         Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield,
                         Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central
                         Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)



Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties            13
www.RichmondHousingToday.com




          Market Indicator #1:
          The Number of Sales is
          Up!!!


Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties   14
Number of Single Family House Sales by Year
                                                                                               www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                         Greater Richmond Single Family Sales
      Number of Single Family




                                18000        15262 15533 16450 15074
          House Sales




                                16000 12737                           12644
                                14000
                                12000                                         9482 9069 8574 9051 9071
                                10000
                                 8000
                                 6000
                                 4000
                                 2000
                                    0
                                         2    3     4     5     6      7      8      9    0        1         )
                                      200  200   200   200   200   2 00   2 00    200  201     201        /26
                                                                                                        11
                                                                                                      u
                                                                                                    hr
                                                                                                 (T
                                                                                              12
                                                                                            20

                                                                        Year
                                                                               Source: CVRMLS data 11/26/12


   The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half
   of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than
   2010 and 2012 has, as of Nov 26, already had more sales than 2011!!!.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                        15
Number of Single Family House Sales by
                                               Month and Year                                                                    www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                     Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond By
                                                                      Month and Year

                                              2000
                     Number of Closed Sales




                                              1800                                                                                        2006
                                              1600                                                                                        2007
                                              1400
                                              1200                                                                                        2008
                                              1000                                                                                        2009
                                               800                                                                                        2010
                                               600
                                               400                                                                                        2011
                                               200                                                                                        2012
                                                 0

                                                                                                 Aug
                                                                         Apr

                                                                               May



                                                                                           Jul
                                                       Jan




                                                                                     Jun




                                                                                                               Oct
                                                                   Mar




                                                                                                                     Nov

                                                                                                                           Dec
                                                             Feb




                                                                                                        Sept
                                                                                     Month
                                                                                                   Source: CVRMLS data

     This graph shows the number of sales by month and year. The number of sales has been dropping every year from 2006 through 2010.
     In the later part of 2011, sales started to increase. Sales have continued to increase in 2012 have been higher than sales for the same
     months in the past 3 years!! June 2012 sales were equivalent to June 2010 sales when we had a tax credit. And October sales were
     higher than the previous 2 years in October.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                                  16
Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter
                                                                                                                              www.RichmondHousingToday.com



                      Greater Richmond Single Family First Quarter
                                    Sales by Year

                    4000
  Number of First




                           3161
   Quarter Sales




                                      2892
                    3000
                                                    2088                                              1903
                                                                     1612               1786
                    2000                                   1487

                    1000
                      0
                           2006       2007          2008   2009      2010               2011          2012
                                                                                                                    Source: CVRMLS Data 7/15/12
                                                           Year
        2012 is 6.5% higher than 2011.
                                                                                     Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter
    Sales in the first quarter of 2012                                                              Sales by Year
    were higher than sales for the
                                                                                               4567
                                                                  Number of Second




    past 3 years. And sales in the                                                   5000
                                                                                                             3919
                                                                    Quarter Sales




    second quarter were higher than                                                  4000                                          3013              3040
                                                                                                                    2910
                                                                                                                           2533             2622
                                                                                     3000
    sales in 2008, 2009, 2010 and
                                                                                     2000
    2011 second quarters. Note that
                                                                                     1000
    there was a tax credit stimulus
                                                                                       0
    that expired during the second                                                             2006          2007   2008   2009    2010     2011     2012
    quarter of 2010 making sales                                                                                           Year
                                                                  2012 is 15.9% higher than 2011.
    then artificially high.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                                      17
Third and Fourth Quarter Sales                                                                   www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                        Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales
                                            by Year                                                                   Source: CVRMLS Data 11/26/12


                        5000
     Number of Closed




                               4111
                        4000              3421
                                                           2692                                         2772
                                                    2526
         Sales




                        3000                                                              2496
                                                                  1999
                        2000
                        1000
                          0
                               2006      2007       2008   2009   2010                    2011          2012
     2012 is 11% higher than 2011.                         Year
                                                                                         Greater Richmond Single Family Fourth Quarter sales
   Sales in the third quarter of 2012                                                                         by Year
   were higher than sales for the
                                                                                       3500      3222
   past 4 years!! Sales in the fourth
                                                                     Number of Sales




                                                                                       3000
   quarter of 2011 were higher than
                                                                                                               2362                   2357
   the fourth quarter of 2010. Note                                                    2500
                                                                                                                                                      2123
   that we had a tax credit during                                                     2000                             1707
                                                                                                                                             1847

   the fourth quarter of 2009 making                                                   1500
   sales artificially high.                                                                      2006          2007     2008          2009   2010     2011

                                                                     2011 is 15% higher than 2010.                             Year


Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                                   18
Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond                   www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                      Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales
             Number of Condominium




                                     2500           2035
                                     2000   1761           1757
                                                                  1382                                    1253
                     Sales




                                     1500                                     1154    1093     1201

                                     1000
                                     500
                                       0
                                             2005   2006   2007   2008        2009    2010     2011        2012
                                                                                                          (Thru
                                                                                                          11/25)

                                                                     Year
                                                                                 Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12


   In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in dark blue) were 10% higher
   than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) through Nov 25 th are already higher than 2011 sales!!!

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                        19
Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter
                                                                                                                      www.RichmondHousingToday.com



                              Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium
                                            Sales by Year

                             500
       No of First Quarter




                                   428
                                            376
                             400
                                                    310
                                                                                                      267        Source: CVRMLS data
              Sales




                             300                                                         242
                                                           190        189
                             200
                             100
                              0
                                   2006     2007    2008   2009      2010            2011             2012

     2012 sales were 10% higher than 2011 sales.
                                                           Year
                                                                            Greater Richmond Second Quarter Condominium
                                                                                            Sales by Year
     The first quarter of 2012 had more
     sales than the first quarter of the                                           800
                                                                   Condominium


                                                                                               601
                                                                    No of Closed




                                                                                                         529
     previous 3 years. The second quarter                                          600
                                                                                                               420            431
                                                                       Sales



                                                                                                                                               389
                                                                                                                                       344
     of 2012 had more sales than 2011 or                                           400                                324

     2009 second quarters. There was a                                             200
     tax credit which ended in the second                                           0
     quarter of 2010 so sales were                                                             2006     2007   2008   2009    2010    2011    2012

     artificially stimulated.                                     2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales.
                                                                                                                      Year Source: CVRMLS data 8/16/12


Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                              20
Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters
                                                                                                                                   www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condminium
                                              Sales by Year

                          800
        Number of Sales




                                  578
                          600            499
                                                                                393
                          400
                                                    355    345           325                                        Source: CVRMLS data
                                                                  219
                          200

                           0
                                 2006   2007        2008   2009   2010   2011   2012
                                                           Year
      2012 salesCVRMLS data 10/1/12
         Source: were 21% higher than 2011 sales.                                                                    Greater Richmond Fourth Quarter
                                                                                                                       Condominium Sales by Year




                                                                                       Fourth Quarter Sales
                                                                                                              500
     Third quarter sales in 2012 were                                                                                424
                                                                                                              400           339
     higher than third quarter sales of the                                                                                                     288          287
                                                                                                              300                  233                225
     previous 4 years!! The fourth quarter
                                                                                                              200
     of 2011 had higher sales than the
                                                                                                              100
     fourth quarter of 2010.
                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                     2006   2007   2008     2009      2010   2011

                                                                                                                                         Year
                                                                                        2011 sales were 27% higher than 2010 sales.


Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                           21
Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales
                                                                                                        www.RichmondHousingToday.com




      Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond

   Price Range                               11/10-10/11   11/11-10/12   Change

   $0-$250,000                                      6057      6814       12.50%

   $250,001-$500,000                                2318      2656       14.58%                   In the Condominium market,
                                                                                                  Year over Year number of sales
   $500,001-$750,000                                393       458        16.54%                   by price point have increased in
                                                                                                  all price points with dramatic
   $750,001-$1,000,000                              103       104         0.97%                   increases in the higher price
   $1,000,001+                                      34         40        17.65%                   points.

   In the single family market,
   Year over Year number of
   sales by price point have
   increased in all price points.
                                                               Number of Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond

                                                           Price Range              11/10-10/11     11/11-10/12       Change

                                                           $0-$250,000                 879              1083          23.21%

                                                           $250,001-$500,000           259               296          14.29%
Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12
                                                           $500,001+                    13                31          138.46%
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                              22
www.RichmondHousingToday.com




          Market Indicator #2:
          Inventory is Down!!!



Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties   23
Months Supply’s Impact on Price                                              www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                    Months      Market               Pricing

                                                     1-4         Sellers        Appreciation

                                                     5-6          Even            The Norm

                                                     7+          Buyers         Depreciation

                                                     Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/10

As shown on the graph, a 7 month or greater supply of houses causes depreciation of prices. We are
currently almost at a normal market amount of inventory.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                 24
Inventory of Single Family Houses
                                         by Month in Greater Richmond                          www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                     Inventory of Greater Richmond Single Family Houses

                                  12.0
           Months of Inventory




                                  10.0
                                   8.0                                                                      2010
                                   6.0                                                                      2011
                                   4.0                                                                      2012
                                   2.0
                                   0.0




                                                                        v
                                        n




                                                         n

                                                                l




                                                                        c
                                                               g

                                                                       p
                                         r
                                       ar
                                        b




                                                                      ct
                                       ay



                                                              Ju
                                      Ap




                                                                     No
                                      Ja




                                                       Ju




                                                                     De
                                                             Au

                                                                     Se
                                     Fe




                                                                     O
                                     M



                                     M




                                                             Month
                                 Source: CVRMLS data

 The supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year.
 After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has
 continued to drop in 2012. We are following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. In May 2010, there were 7455
 houses listed for sale in Greater Richmond and now there are 4468. A normal market is 5-6 months of inventory.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                     25
Single Family Inventory by Price Range
                                                                                                  www.RichmondHousingToday.com


                     Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12




        Price Range                                                       Inventory (Months)
        $0-$250,000                                                               4.6
        $250,001-$500,000                                                         5.2
        $500,001-$750,000                                                         7.5
        $750,001-$1,000,000                                                      12.0
        $1,000,001+                                                              16.9

          The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up
          to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still
          challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. However, the number of sales at the higher price points is
          increasing.



Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                         26
Single Family Inventory by County                                            www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                    Inventory By County/City

                       12.0                                                                               9.5
                       10.0                                              8.4
           Inventory




                        8.0           4.9                     5.8                          4.7                         4.8
                        6.0                         4.0
                        4.0
                        2.0
                        0.0
                                     Richmond




                                                                                                                      Richmond
                                                    Henrico




                                                                          Goochland
                                                              Hanover




                                                                                           Chesterfield



                                                                                                          Powhatan
                                       City of




                                                                                                                          All
              Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12                              County


 The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal
 market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                     27
Inventory of Condominiums                           www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                         Inventory of Condominiums in Greater Richmond

                                  12.0
            Months of Inventory




                                  10.0
                                   8.0                                                                 2010
                                   6.0                                                                 2011
                                   4.0                                                                 2012
                                   2.0
                                   0.0




                                                                          v
                                        n




                                                           n

                                                                  l




                                                                          c
                                                                 g

                                                                         p
                                         r
                                       ar
                                        b




                                                                        ct
                                       ay



                                                                Ju
                                      Ap




                                                                       No
                                      Ja




                                                         Ju




                                                                       De
                                                               Au

                                                                       Se
                                     Fe




                                                                       O
                                     M



                                     M




                                                               Month
                                                                               Source: CVRMLS data


 The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of
 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater Richmond
 and today there are 494.. The inventory in November of 2012 is more than 6 months less than in November of 2010. This
 is a sign of recovery.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                      28
www.RichmondHousingToday.com




          Market Indicator #3:
          Prices have bottomed out
          and are rising!!!


Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties   29
Single Family Average Sales Price By Month
                                                                                                                                                           www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                                     Average Sales Price By Month

                                        $330,000
                  Average Sales Price




                                        $310,000
                                        $290,000
                                        $270,000
                                        $250,000
                                        $230,000
                                        $210,000
                                        $190,000
                                        $170,000
                                        $150,000
                                                   Jan-06

                                                            Jul-06

                                                                       Jan-07

                                                                                Jul-07

                                                                                         Jan-08

                                                                                                  Jul-08

                                                                                                           Jan-09

                                                                                                                         Jul-09

                                                                                                                                    Jan-10

                                                                                                                                             Jul-10

                                                                                                                                                      Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                               Jul-11

                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-12
                                                                                                             Month
                                                                                                                                  Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12


   The average sales price in Greater Richmond appears to have hit the bottom and are rising. Note that the spring peak in
   prices in 2012 was higher than 2011 and the low points are also higher.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                                                   30
Greater Richmond Single Family Price
                                        Per Square Foot by Month                                                                                                 www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                        Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed
                                                House Sales in Greater Richmond
          Price Per Square Foot For




                                      $150.00
                                      $140.00
                 Closed Sales




                                      $130.00
                                      $120.00
                                      $110.00
                                      $100.00
                                       $90.00
                                       $80.00
                                                Jan-06

                                                         Jul-06

                                                                  Jan-07

                                                                           Jul-07

                                                                                    Jan-08

                                                                                             Jul-08

                                                                                                      Jan-09

                                                                                                               Jul-09

                                                                                                                             Jan-10

                                                                                                                                      Jul-10

                                                                                                                                               Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                        Jul-11

                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-12
                                                                                                        Month
                         Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12


   Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the spring high in 2012 is higher than last
   year and the winter low does not seem to be occurring.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                                                       31
Average Price Per Square Foot By Year for
                                         Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond                                www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                         Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot
                                                    For Closed House Sales By Year
          Price Per Square Foot




                                  $150                                          $135.82 $139.64 $132.43
                                  $140
                                  $130                                $123.38
                                                                                                          $117.82
                                  $120                                                                              $112.24
                                                            $107.60                                                           $104.98 $105.83
                                  $110             $99.65
                                  $100    $92.37
                                   $90
                                   $80




                                                                                                                                         6)
                                        02


                                                 03


                                                          04


                                                                    05


                                                                              06


                                                                                        07


                                                                                                08


                                                                                                         09


                                                                                                                 10


                                                                                                                           11

                                                                                                                                       /2
                                     20


                                              20


                                                       20


                                                                 20


                                                                           20


                                                                                     20


                                                                                             20


                                                                                                      20


                                                                                                              20


                                                                                                                        20

                                                                                                                                     11
                                                                                                                                ru
                                                                                                                                 h
                                                                                                                              (T
                                                                                                                         12
                                                                                                                      20
                                                                                        Year
                                                                                                     Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12

   Prices have started to rise in Greater Richmond with 2012 prices being approximately 1% higher than 2011 prices. With a
   25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still at 2004 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                            32
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                                                          Greater Richmond Single Family
                                                                                          Price Per Square Foot by Quarter
                                                                                                                                                       Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12
                              $145.00
      Price per Square Foot




                              $135.00
                              $125.00
                              $115.00
                              $105.00
                               $95.00
                               $85.00
                               $75.00
                                        2007-01

                                                  2007-02

                                                            2007-03

                                                                      2007-04

                                                                                2008-01

                                                                                           2008-02

                                                                                                     2008-03

                                                                                                               2008-04

                                                                                                                         2009-01

                                                                                                                                   2009-02

                                                                                                                                             2009-03

                                                                                                                                                        2009-04

                                                                                                                                                                  2010-01

                                                                                                                                                                            2010-02

                                                                                                                                                                                      2010-03

                                                                                                                                                                                                2010-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                          2011-01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2011-02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2011-03

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2011-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2012-01

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2012-02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2012-03
                                                                                                                                                Quarter



                                           First Quarter                                   Second Quarter                                        Third Quarter                                                 Fourth Quarter
                                           Sales                                           Sales                                                 Sales                                                         Sales

When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09,
10 and 11. 2012 is almost equal to 2011. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and33
2012 is equal to 2011. The third quarter is in blue and 2012 third quarter prices are higher than 2011 third quarter prices.
 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                        33
Single Family Year over Year Price Change
                                                                                                www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                            Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From
                         Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond
                                                                            Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12
         20.0%
                                                     14.7%
         15.0%
                                                             10.1%
         10.0%                7.9%            8.0%

            5.0%                                                     2.8%
                                                                                                                0.8%
            0.0%
                              2003            2004   2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010     2011      2012
          -5.0%
                                                                            -5.2%            -4.7%
        -10.0%                                                                                       -6.5%
                                                                                    -11.0%
        -15.0%

   Year over year price change shows that 2012 prices are increasing over 2011 prices after 4 years of declines. In this graph,
   the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc.

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                            34
2011 vs 2012 Prices By County                                                www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                          Change in Prices Between 2011 and 2012 (Thru
                                              8/15)

            8.00%   5.64%
            6.00%
            4.00%                                                                 2.61%
                                1.76%                               1.48%
            2.00%
            0.00%
           -2.00%
                               d




                                                                                  nd
                                                           o




                                                                                                    -1.26%




                                                                                                     ld
                                                                     er




                                                                                                                an
                             on




                                                       ri c




                                                                                                  ie
                                                                  ov




                                                                               la
           -4.00%




                                                                                                                t
                            m




                                                                                                             ha
                                                                                             rf
                                                    en




                                                                             ch
                                                               an
                         ch




                                                                                              e




                                                                                                            w
                                                    H




                                                                                           st
           -6.00%                                                          oo
                                                               H
                      Ri




                                                                                                          Po
                                                                                        he
                                                                          G
                   of




                                                                                        C
           -8.00%
               ity
            C




         -10.00%CVRMLS data 10/1/12
          Source:                                                                                                -8.89%


 Prices have risen in some areas between 2011 and 2012 shown in green. But Chesterfield is slightly down and Powhatan
 still has some challenges.


Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                  35
Condominium Price Per Square Foot                                                                          www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                       Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium Sales
                                                       in Greater Richmond

                                     $170.00
             Price Per Square Foot




                                     $160.00
                                     $150.00
                                     $140.00
                                     $130.00
                                     $120.00
                                     $110.00
                                     $100.00
                                               Jan-06

                                                        Jul-06

                                                                 Jan-07

                                                                          Jul-07

                                                                                   Jan-08

                                                                                            Jul-08

                                                                                                     Jan-09

                                                                                                              Jul-09

                                                                                                                       Jan-10

                                                                                                                                Jul-10

                                                                                                                                         Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                  Jul-11

                                                                                                                                                           Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-12
                                                                                                      Month             Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12


   Price per square foot is a good indicator of prices. Notice that the highs in price per square foot are higher than last year.

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                                              36
Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond
                                           Condominium Sales By Year                                                     www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                          Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By
                                                                Year
          Price per Square Foot




                                  $160                                           $149.49 $154.00 $152.70
                                  $150                                 $133.49                             $135.62 $131.55
                                  $140                                                                                       $119.16 $120.54
                                  $130                       $113.32
                                  $120             $100.03
                                  $110    $90.84
                                  $100
                                   $90
                                   $80
                                   $70
                                            2      3        4         5         6         7        8      9          0          1               )
                                         200    200      200       200       200       200      200    200        201        201             /25
                                                                                                                                           11
                                                                                                                                       u
                                                                                                                                     hr
                                                                                                                                  (T
                                                                                                                              2
                                                                                                                           201

                                    Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/11                         Year

      The price per square foot for condominium sales is between 2004 and 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices
      in 2012 are on average slightly higher than 2011 indicating that prices have bottomed out and are starting to rise.
      Prices are expected to continue rising next year. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                             37
Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change
                                By Price Range                                                          www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                             Single Family                                             Condominium/Townhouse

    Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond                          Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond

Price Range                        11/10-10/11      11/11-10/12   Change   Price Range         11/10-10/11    11/11-10/12    Change
$0-$250,000                            $86.82         $86.55      -0.31%
                                                                           $0-$250,000           $109.87        $106.89      -2.71%
$250,001-$500,000                     $121.06        $122.06      0.83%
                                                                           $250,001-$500,000     $149.59        $152.02      1.62%
$500,001-$750,000                     $153.84        $154.13      0.19%

$750,001-$1,000,000                   $180.47        $176.85      -2.01%   $500,001+             $180.00        $191.45      6.36%

$1,000,001+                           $214.61        $238.39      11.08%
                                                                              In the condominium market, price per square foot is
                                                                              increasing in the higher price points.
     In the single family market, prices were dropping in
     Greater Richmond through the early spring of 2012
     but have been rising since then. So the decreases
     seen in price per square foot on this graph should be
     followed by increases in a few months. Note the
     increase at the highest price point.
                                                                            Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12



Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                38
Richmond Real Estate Areas        www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                         The Richmond Association of
                                                         Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas
                                                         as shown in the graph. The following
                                                         analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24,
                                                         30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60,
                                                         62, 64 and 66 shown on the map. The
                                                         analysis of MLS data was generally
                                                         done for each month during the
                                                         middle of the following month. MLS
                                                         analysis may differ depending on
                                                         what date the information is taken
                                                         from the MLS system.




Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties   39
Active Single Family Listings By Area
                                                                                              www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                    Active Listings By Area (As of 11/25/12)
          Number of Active Single




                                    600
                                                                                           483
             Family Listings




                                    500                                                448
                                                                                                   373
                                    400
                                    300 223    227                 225 250 201 254                         218
                                                               193                 174         167
                                                   149 146 121                                         158
                                    200
                                            62
                                    100
                                      0
                                         10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66
                                                                         Area     Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12

   The number of active listings by area is shown. Active listings are down significantly over last year. There are
   approximately 3500 fewer homes on the market than two years age. Richmond is following a nationwide trend of
   declining inventory. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20
   having the lowest.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                            40
Single Family Average Sales Price By Area
                                                                                                                                                                                                          www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                   Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House



                                                     $423,448
                                                 Sales (11/1/11-10/31/12)




                                                                           $387,164




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          $332,606
                               $450,000




                                                                                                            $315,955
                                                                $307,427




                                                                                                                       $276,901
                               $400,000
         Average Sales Price




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $247,923
                                                                                                                                                                                                               $235,302




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $227,469
                               $350,000




                                                                                                                                                         $220,321
                                          $215,248




                                                                                                                                                                                         $209,180
                                                                                                                                                                                                    $179,057
                               $300,000




                                                                                                                                                                              $156,854
                                                                                                                                  $142,618
                                                                                                 $138,951
                               $250,000                                               $123,710




                                                                                                                                              $102,621
                               $200,000




                                                                                                                                                                    $60,763
                               $150,000
                               $100,000
                                $50,000
                                     $0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                All
                                           10
                                                     20
                                                                22
                                                                           24
                                                                                      30
                                                                                                 32
                                                                                                            34
                                                                                                                       36
                                                                                                                                  40
                                                                                                                                              42
                                                                                                                                                         44
                                                                                                                                                                    50
                                                                                                                                                                              52
                                                                                                                                                                                         54
                                                                                                                                                                                                    60
                                                                                                                                                                                                               62
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          64
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     66
                                 Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12                                                                                Area


      Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50
      having the lowest.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                                                                                41
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area
                                                                                                                                                                                                     www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                           Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House
                                                  Closed Sales By Area (11/1/11-10/31/12)


                                                              $176.34
               Price Per Square Foot




                                                                                    $124.87
                                       $200.00

                                                                         $122.60




                                                                                                                   $117.76
                                                                                                                              $112.13




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          $108.24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $107.59
                                                   $105.68




                                                                                                                                                             $106.91




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $99.63
                                                                                                                                                                                                                $97.94
                                                                                                                                                                                            $91.64
                                                                                                                                                                                                      $92.73
                                                                                                         $90.02
                                       $150.00




                                                                                                                                         $81.11




                                                                                                                                                                                  $81.19
                                                                                               $68.93




                                                                                                                                                   $66.32


                                                                                                                                                                        $42.93
                                       $100.00
                                        $50.00
                                          $0.00
                                                  10

                                                             20

                                                                        22

                                                                                   24

                                                                                              30

                                                                                                        32

                                                                                                                  34

                                                                                                                             36

                                                                                                                                        40

                                                                                                                                                  42

                                                                                                                                                            44

                                                                                                                                                                       50

                                                                                                                                                                                 52

                                                                                                                                                                                           54

                                                                                                                                                                                                     60

                                                                                                                                                                                                               62

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         64

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           66

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             d
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       hm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ric
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                All
                                       Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12                                                                           Area


      Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest
      price per square foot.
Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                                                                                 42
Inventory of Single Family Houses                                                       www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                    Supply of Houses by Area in Months
                       12.0
   Months of Supply




                                                                                                                                      9.5
                       10.0                         8.4
                                                                                  7.3 6.8           7.9
                        8.0                                                                               6.2
                              5.4                                           5.9               5.7
                                                          5.1                                                   4.9                         5.2
                        6.0                                                                                           4.2
                                                                3.8                                                         3.6 4.2
                        4.0         2.3 2.8                           2.8
                        2.0
                        0.0




                                                                                                                                             All Richmond
                               10

                                    20

                                            22

                                                     24

                                                          30

                                                                 32

                                                                       34

                                                                            36

                                                                                  40

                                                                                        42

                                                                                              44

                                                                                                    50

                                                                                                           52

                                                                                                                 54

                                                                                                                      60

                                                                                                                            62

                                                                                                                                 64

                                                                                                                                       66
                      Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12

                                                                                       Area
 As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. The areas that are further out have the largest
 supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan
 (Area 66) have the highest supply of houses at 8.4 and 9.5 months. Richmond is following a nationwide trend—people
 are moving back into the cities.

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                            43
2010 vs. 2012                                                              www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                                                                                                                                        Supply of
                                                             Inventory of Houses 2010 vs 2012                                           Houses
                             18.0                                                                                                       7/19/10
                                                                                                                                        Supply of
                             16.0                                                                                                       Houses
       Months of Inventory




                                                                                                                                        11/25/12
                             14.0
                             12.0
                             10.0
                              8.0
                              6.0
                              4.0
                              2.0
                              0.0
                                    10

                                         20

                                              22

                                                   24

                                                        30

                                                             32

                                                                  34

                                                                       36

                                                                            40

                                                                                 42

                                                                                      44

                                                                                           50

                                                                                                52

                                                                                                     54

                                                                                                          60

                                                                                                               62

                                                                                                                    64

                                                                                                                           hm 66
                                                                                                                               d
                                                                                                                             on
                                                                                                                         ic
                                                                                                                        R
                                                                                                                     ll
                                                                                                                    A
   Source: CVRMLS data                                                           Area

     As shown above, the inventory in all areas in Greater Richmond has declined significantly over the past 2 years.

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties                                               44
www.RichmondHousingToday.com




                     Summary



Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties   45
Existing Home Sales                                                    www.RichmondHousingToday.com




           12,109 US Homes Sell Every Day
           and 8,718 Buyers Receive a Mortgage
                                                    In spite of the recent
                                                    downturn, home
                                                    ownership
                                                    continues to be the
                                                    best long-term
                                                    investment in the
                                                    US!!!

                                                                      Source: Keeping Current Matters

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties              46                          NAR 12/2011
Summary                  www.RichmondHousingToday.com




        •       Sales are up
        •       Inventory is down
        •       Prices have started to rise in some areas.
        •       This is the chance of a lifetime to BUY!!!




Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties   47

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Richmond Housing Today December 2012

  • 1. www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Greater Richmond Real Estate Market Lacy Williams Joyner Fine Properties Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 1
  • 2. Background www.RichmondHousingToday.com • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA housing Market as well as the National Market. • Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org. • The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Joyner Fine Properties using Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in November 2012 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined by Joyner Fine Properties as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 2
  • 3. www.RichmondHousingToday.com The National Market Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 3
  • 4. US Pending Home Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 105.0 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 The stimulus tax credit expired in April of 2010. There was a sharp drop in the number of sales at that time but the number of sales has been rising (with monthly fluctuation) since June of 2010 without government intervention. Forecasts are for the number of sales to continue to increase as the economy improves. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 4
  • 5. US Inventory of Homes for Sale www.RichmondHousingToday.com 10.0 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 9.0 Months of Inventory 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sept As the number of sales has gone up, the inventory of available houses for sale has been dropping. The national market is approximately a 6 month inventory which is considered to be a normal market. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 5 NAR 10/2012
  • 6. US Home Prices Y-O-Y Changes www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 As shown above, prices have risen during the past year in the Southeast including Virginia. Prices are still declining in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 6 FHFA 2Q HPI Report
  • 7. US Home Prices Next Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com 3.5 3.25 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 3 2.8 2.5 2.44 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Home Price Expectation Survey National Association of Business WSJ Economic Survey Economists Three leading National Groups are forecasting price increases to continue next year. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 7
  • 8. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward www.RichmondHousingToday.com “After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in the year ahead, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted. Rates on the 30-year fixed- Projected Average 30 Year Rate 4.5 4.4 rate mortgage are expected 4.4 to average 3.8% in the 4.3 4.2 fourth quarter of 2012, rising 4.1 4 to 3.9% in the first quarter 3.9 3.9 3.8 of 2013 and eventually rising 3.8 3.7 to an average 4.4% by the 3.6 fourth quarter of next year.” 3.5 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 4Q Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 8 MarketWatch 10/24/2012
  • 9. The Cost of Waiting a Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 Interest Date Price P&I Rate Today $200,000 3.5% $898.09 2013 4Q $204,880 4.4% $1,025.96 Difference in Payment $127.87 With prices rising and the interest rate going up, waiting to buy a house will cost you significantly more. The example above shows that waiting just a year will cost you $127.87 more for a $200,000 house. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 9
  • 10. US Percentage of Distressed Property Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 35% Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/12 35% 30% 25% 24% 20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Another positive sign is that the percentage of distressed property sales (including foreclosures and short sales) has been declining. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 10 NAR 10/2012
  • 11. US Housing Starts www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: NAR Housing starts measure the number of newly constructed homes. The U.S. Population grows by approximately 3 million per year (though it is estimated to have slowed to 2 million in 2011). Based on population growth and the need to replace some of the demolished housing units, most economists believe about 1.5 million housing units need to be built each year, which also happens to be the historical average (shown with the green line). In recent years, new home construction has been well below the norm contributing to more job losses in the construction industry. Multifamily units are primarily for rentals and this sector is experiencing a recovery due to rising rents. Housing starts have risen by 20% so far this year. Falling inventory means that builders need to ramp up production. But many smaller builders cannot obtain construction loans. Housing starts are forecast to rise 25% in 2012 and by 50% in 2013. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 11
  • 12. Housing Facts www.RichmondHousingToday.com Median Home Prices UP 7.3% rose in 110 out of 147 MSAs Existing Distressed -33% Home Sales +8.6% Properties Existing Mortgage Inventory -24.4% - .86% Rates Source: Keeping Current Matters 9/12 NAR 2nd Quarter 2012 vs. 2nd Quarter 2011 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 12
  • 13. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Housing Market Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS) Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 13
  • 14. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #1: The Number of Sales is Up!!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 14
  • 15. Number of Single Family House Sales by Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Sales Number of Single Family 18000 15262 15533 16450 15074 House Sales 16000 12737 12644 14000 12000 9482 9069 8574 9051 9071 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 ) 200 200 200 200 200 2 00 2 00 200 201 201 /26 11 u hr (T 12 20 Year Source: CVRMLS data 11/26/12 The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than 2010 and 2012 has, as of Nov 26, already had more sales than 2011!!!. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 15
  • 16. Number of Single Family House Sales by Month and Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond By Month and Year 2000 Number of Closed Sales 1800 2006 1600 2007 1400 1200 2008 1000 2009 800 2010 600 400 2011 200 2012 0 Aug Apr May Jul Jan Jun Oct Mar Nov Dec Feb Sept Month Source: CVRMLS data This graph shows the number of sales by month and year. The number of sales has been dropping every year from 2006 through 2010. In the later part of 2011, sales started to increase. Sales have continued to increase in 2012 have been higher than sales for the same months in the past 3 years!! June 2012 sales were equivalent to June 2010 sales when we had a tax credit. And October sales were higher than the previous 2 years in October. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 16
  • 17. Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family First Quarter Sales by Year 4000 Number of First 3161 Quarter Sales 2892 3000 2088 1903 1612 1786 2000 1487 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CVRMLS Data 7/15/12 Year 2012 is 6.5% higher than 2011. Greater Richmond Single Family Second Quarter Sales in the first quarter of 2012 Sales by Year were higher than sales for the 4567 Number of Second past 3 years. And sales in the 5000 3919 Quarter Sales second quarter were higher than 4000 3013 3040 2910 2533 2622 3000 sales in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2000 2011 second quarters. Note that 1000 there was a tax credit stimulus 0 that expired during the second 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 quarter of 2010 making sales Year 2012 is 15.9% higher than 2011. then artificially high. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 17
  • 18. Third and Fourth Quarter Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales by Year Source: CVRMLS Data 11/26/12 5000 Number of Closed 4111 4000 3421 2692 2772 2526 Sales 3000 2496 1999 2000 1000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 is 11% higher than 2011. Year Greater Richmond Single Family Fourth Quarter sales Sales in the third quarter of 2012 by Year were higher than sales for the 3500 3222 past 4 years!! Sales in the fourth Number of Sales 3000 quarter of 2011 were higher than 2362 2357 the fourth quarter of 2010. Note 2500 2123 that we had a tax credit during 2000 1707 1847 the fourth quarter of 2009 making 1500 sales artificially high. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 is 15% higher than 2010. Year Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 18
  • 19. Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales Number of Condominium 2500 2035 2000 1761 1757 1382 1253 Sales 1500 1154 1093 1201 1000 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Thru 11/25) Year Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in dark blue) were 10% higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) through Nov 25 th are already higher than 2011 sales!!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 19
  • 20. Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium Sales by Year 500 No of First Quarter 428 376 400 310 267 Source: CVRMLS data Sales 300 242 190 189 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 sales were 10% higher than 2011 sales. Year Greater Richmond Second Quarter Condominium Sales by Year The first quarter of 2012 had more sales than the first quarter of the 800 Condominium 601 No of Closed 529 previous 3 years. The second quarter 600 420 431 Sales 389 344 of 2012 had more sales than 2011 or 400 324 2009 second quarters. There was a 200 tax credit which ended in the second 0 quarter of 2010 so sales were 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 artificially stimulated. 2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales. Year Source: CVRMLS data 8/16/12 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 20
  • 21. Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condminium Sales by Year 800 Number of Sales 578 600 499 393 400 355 345 325 Source: CVRMLS data 219 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year 2012 salesCVRMLS data 10/1/12 Source: were 21% higher than 2011 sales. Greater Richmond Fourth Quarter Condominium Sales by Year Fourth Quarter Sales 500 Third quarter sales in 2012 were 424 400 339 higher than third quarter sales of the 288 287 300 233 225 previous 4 years!! The fourth quarter 200 of 2011 had higher sales than the 100 fourth quarter of 2010. 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year 2011 sales were 27% higher than 2010 sales. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 21
  • 22. Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond Price Range 11/10-10/11 11/11-10/12 Change $0-$250,000 6057 6814 12.50% $250,001-$500,000 2318 2656 14.58% In the Condominium market, Year over Year number of sales $500,001-$750,000 393 458 16.54% by price point have increased in all price points with dramatic $750,001-$1,000,000 103 104 0.97% increases in the higher price $1,000,001+ 34 40 17.65% points. In the single family market, Year over Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points. Number of Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond Price Range 11/10-10/11 11/11-10/12 Change $0-$250,000 879 1083 23.21% $250,001-$500,000 259 296 14.29% Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 $500,001+ 13 31 138.46% Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 22
  • 23. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #2: Inventory is Down!!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 23
  • 24. Months Supply’s Impact on Price www.RichmondHousingToday.com Months Market Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/10 As shown on the graph, a 7 month or greater supply of houses causes depreciation of prices. We are currently almost at a normal market amount of inventory. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 24
  • 25. Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory of Greater Richmond Single Family Houses 12.0 Months of Inventory 10.0 8.0 2010 6.0 2011 4.0 2012 2.0 0.0 v n n l c g p r ar b ct ay Ju Ap No Ja Ju De Au Se Fe O M M Month Source: CVRMLS data The supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. We are following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. In May 2010, there were 7455 houses listed for sale in Greater Richmond and now there are 4468. A normal market is 5-6 months of inventory. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 25
  • 26. Single Family Inventory by Price Range www.RichmondHousingToday.com Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Price Range Inventory (Months) $0-$250,000 4.6 $250,001-$500,000 5.2 $500,001-$750,000 7.5 $750,001-$1,000,000 12.0 $1,000,001+ 16.9 The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. However, the number of sales at the higher price points is increasing. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 26
  • 27. Single Family Inventory by County www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory By County/City 12.0 9.5 10.0 8.4 Inventory 8.0 4.9 5.8 4.7 4.8 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Richmond Richmond Henrico Goochland Hanover Chesterfield Powhatan City of All Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 County The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 27
  • 28. Inventory of Condominiums www.RichmondHousingToday.com Inventory of Condominiums in Greater Richmond 12.0 Months of Inventory 10.0 8.0 2010 6.0 2011 4.0 2012 2.0 0.0 v n n l c g p r ar b ct ay Ju Ap No Ja Ju De Au Se Fe O M M Month Source: CVRMLS data The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater Richmond and today there are 494.. The inventory in November of 2012 is more than 6 months less than in November of 2010. This is a sign of recovery. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 28
  • 29. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Market Indicator #3: Prices have bottomed out and are rising!!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 29
  • 30. Single Family Average Sales Price By Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Sales Price By Month $330,000 Average Sales Price $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 The average sales price in Greater Richmond appears to have hit the bottom and are rising. Note that the spring peak in prices in 2012 was higher than 2011 and the low points are also higher. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 30
  • 31. Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Month www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed House Sales in Greater Richmond Price Per Square Foot For $150.00 $140.00 Closed Sales $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 $90.00 $80.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the spring high in 2012 is higher than last year and the winter low does not seem to be occurring. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 31
  • 32. Average Price Per Square Foot By Year for Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot For Closed House Sales By Year Price Per Square Foot $150 $135.82 $139.64 $132.43 $140 $130 $123.38 $117.82 $120 $112.24 $107.60 $104.98 $105.83 $110 $99.65 $100 $92.37 $90 $80 6) 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 /2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 11 ru h (T 12 20 Year Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Prices have started to rise in Greater Richmond with 2012 prices being approximately 1% higher than 2011 prices. With a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still at 2004 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 32
  • 33. Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter www.RichmondHousingToday.com Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Quarter Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 $145.00 Price per Square Foot $135.00 $125.00 $115.00 $105.00 $95.00 $85.00 $75.00 2007-01 2007-02 2007-03 2007-04 2008-01 2008-02 2008-03 2008-04 2009-01 2009-02 2009-03 2009-04 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2011-01 2011-02 2011-03 2011-04 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 Quarter First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter Sales Sales Sales Sales When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 2012 is almost equal to 2011. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and33 2012 is equal to 2011. The third quarter is in blue and 2012 third quarter prices are higher than 2011 third quarter prices. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 33
  • 34. Single Family Year over Year Price Change www.RichmondHousingToday.com Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 20.0% 14.7% 15.0% 10.1% 10.0% 7.9% 8.0% 5.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -5.0% -5.2% -4.7% -10.0% -6.5% -11.0% -15.0% Year over year price change shows that 2012 prices are increasing over 2011 prices after 4 years of declines. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 34
  • 35. 2011 vs 2012 Prices By County www.RichmondHousingToday.com Change in Prices Between 2011 and 2012 (Thru 8/15) 8.00% 5.64% 6.00% 4.00% 2.61% 1.76% 1.48% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% d nd o -1.26% ld er an on ri c ie ov la -4.00% t m ha rf en ch an ch e w H st -6.00% oo H Ri Po he G of C -8.00% ity C -10.00%CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Source: -8.89% Prices have risen in some areas between 2011 and 2012 shown in green. But Chesterfield is slightly down and Powhatan still has some challenges. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 35
  • 36. Condominium Price Per Square Foot www.RichmondHousingToday.com Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond $170.00 Price Per Square Foot $160.00 $150.00 $140.00 $130.00 $120.00 $110.00 $100.00 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Month Source: CVRMLS data 10/1/12 Price per square foot is a good indicator of prices. Notice that the highs in price per square foot are higher than last year. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 36
  • 37. Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond Condominium Sales By Year www.RichmondHousingToday.com Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By Year Price per Square Foot $160 $149.49 $154.00 $152.70 $150 $133.49 $135.62 $131.55 $140 $119.16 $120.54 $130 $113.32 $120 $100.03 $110 $90.84 $100 $90 $80 $70 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 ) 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 /25 11 u hr (T 2 201 Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/11 Year The price per square foot for condominium sales is between 2004 and 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices in 2012 are on average slightly higher than 2011 indicating that prices have bottomed out and are starting to rise. Prices are expected to continue rising next year. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 37
  • 38. Year of Year Price Per Square Foot Change By Price Range www.RichmondHousingToday.com Single Family Condominium/Townhouse Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond Price Range 11/10-10/11 11/11-10/12 Change Price Range 11/10-10/11 11/11-10/12 Change $0-$250,000 $86.82 $86.55 -0.31% $0-$250,000 $109.87 $106.89 -2.71% $250,001-$500,000 $121.06 $122.06 0.83% $250,001-$500,000 $149.59 $152.02 1.62% $500,001-$750,000 $153.84 $154.13 0.19% $750,001-$1,000,000 $180.47 $176.85 -2.01% $500,001+ $180.00 $191.45 6.36% $1,000,001+ $214.61 $238.39 11.08% In the condominium market, price per square foot is increasing in the higher price points. In the single family market, prices were dropping in Greater Richmond through the early spring of 2012 but have been rising since then. So the decreases seen in price per square foot on this graph should be followed by increases in a few months. Note the increase at the highest price point. Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 38
  • 39. Richmond Real Estate Areas www.RichmondHousingToday.com The Richmond Association of Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas as shown in the graph. The following analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map. The analysis of MLS data was generally done for each month during the middle of the following month. MLS analysis may differ depending on what date the information is taken from the MLS system. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 39
  • 40. Active Single Family Listings By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com Active Listings By Area (As of 11/25/12) Number of Active Single 600 483 Family Listings 500 448 373 400 300 223 227 225 250 201 254 218 193 174 167 149 146 121 158 200 62 100 0 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Area Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 The number of active listings by area is shown. Active listings are down significantly over last year. There are approximately 3500 fewer homes on the market than two years age. Richmond is following a nationwide trend of declining inventory. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 40
  • 41. Single Family Average Sales Price By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House $423,448 Sales (11/1/11-10/31/12) $387,164 $332,606 $450,000 $315,955 $307,427 $276,901 $400,000 Average Sales Price $247,923 $235,302 $227,469 $350,000 $220,321 $215,248 $209,180 $179,057 $300,000 $156,854 $142,618 $138,951 $250,000 $123,710 $102,621 $200,000 $60,763 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 All 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Area Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the lowest. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 41
  • 42. Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area www.RichmondHousingToday.com Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House Closed Sales By Area (11/1/11-10/31/12) $176.34 Price Per Square Foot $124.87 $200.00 $122.60 $117.76 $112.13 $108.24 $107.59 $105.68 $106.91 $99.63 $97.94 $91.64 $92.73 $90.02 $150.00 $81.11 $81.19 $68.93 $66.32 $42.93 $100.00 $50.00 $0.00 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 d on hm Ric All Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Area Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest price per square foot. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 42
  • 43. Inventory of Single Family Houses www.RichmondHousingToday.com Supply of Houses by Area in Months 12.0 Months of Supply 9.5 10.0 8.4 7.3 6.8 7.9 8.0 6.2 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.1 4.9 5.2 6.0 4.2 3.8 3.6 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.0 0.0 All Richmond 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66 Source: CVRMLS data 11/25/12 Area As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. The areas that are further out have the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the highest supply of houses at 8.4 and 9.5 months. Richmond is following a nationwide trend—people are moving back into the cities. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 43
  • 44. 2010 vs. 2012 www.RichmondHousingToday.com Supply of Inventory of Houses 2010 vs 2012 Houses 18.0 7/19/10 Supply of 16.0 Houses Months of Inventory 11/25/12 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 hm 66 d on ic R ll A Source: CVRMLS data Area As shown above, the inventory in all areas in Greater Richmond has declined significantly over the past 2 years. Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 44
  • 45. www.RichmondHousingToday.com Summary Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 45
  • 46. Existing Home Sales www.RichmondHousingToday.com 12,109 US Homes Sell Every Day and 8,718 Buyers Receive a Mortgage In spite of the recent downturn, home ownership continues to be the best long-term investment in the US!!! Source: Keeping Current Matters Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 46 NAR 12/2011
  • 47. Summary www.RichmondHousingToday.com • Sales are up • Inventory is down • Prices have started to rise in some areas. • This is the chance of a lifetime to BUY!!! Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties 47