theWorstCase.com is an independent business based in Geneva, Switzerland. We specialize in developing risk- and crisis- management solutions for public and private sector organizations that help to protect their reputation and ensure operational continuity in out of the ordinary situations. theworstcase.com is a partnership between themurdochgroup.com and thewolfgroup.org, two consulting groups that bring a over 50 years of experience in the public and private sectors. Our philosophy is to deliver practical, lightweight solutions that fit our clients' organizational culture, systems and operating environments.

1. theworstcase.com
Crisis Management
- new challenges - and tools
Tony MURDOCH
Raj RANA
www.theworstcase.com
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

2. theworstcase.com
Charting Gaps in Crisis Management
- new tools and approaches
Tony MURDOCH
Raj RANA
www.theworstcase.com
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

3. Aim
• Illustrate crisis management challenges in the
New Media age
• How simulation can create creating learning
environments highlight strengths and
weaknesses in your own procedures
• Talk about theworstcase.com
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

4. Crisis Management
quot;It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to ruin
it.quot; (Warren Buffet)
quot;If it's not important to senior management, it will not be important
to middle management or line management at all.quot; (Denny Lynch, Senior
VP Communications, Wendy's)
quot;90 percent of a crisis response is communications.quot; (Barbara
Reynolds, CDC, USA)
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

5. What are the challenges?
• Information overload
• Staff not equipped
• Senior management not interested
• Inward looking- outside, ‘untrustworthy’
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

6. What are the challenges?
• New media overload
Information and ICT seen as security threats
• Parallel communications - needs driven
Staff not equipped
• Learning is based on individuals, not
Senior management not interested organizations
• Developing consistent and replicable responses
Inward looking- outside, ‘untrustworthy’
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

7. What complicates it further?
• Very real fear of legal action
• Managing daily business and crisis in parallel
• A dangerous fascination with technology
• ‘Old recipes for a New World’ - Web 2.0??
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

8. A few illustrations
London Bombings
• 07 July 2005
• Within 24 hours BBC had received 1000 stills
and videos, 3000 texts and 20000 emails
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

9. Mumbai bomb blasts
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

10. Mumbai bomb blasts
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

11. Mumbai bomb blasts
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

12. Mumbai bomb blasts
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

13. Mumbai bomb blasts
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

14. The Ranger Station Fire
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

15. The Ranger Station Fire
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

16. The Ranger Station Fire
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

17. The Ranger Station Fire
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

18. Reputation
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

19. Reputation
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

20. Reputation
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

21. Reputation
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

22. Some figures
• Every minute 15 hrs of video is uploaded to
YouTube
• Twitter use grew 1382% in the last year
• FaceBook boasts 175 million users
• 4.1 billion mobile phones worldwide
• 50 million iPhone users
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

23. Some figures
• Every minute 15 hrs of video is uploaded to
YouTube
• Twitter use grew 1382% in the last year
• FaceBook boasts 175 million users
• 4.1 billion mobile phones worldwide
• 50 million iPhone users
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

24. Some figures
• Every minute 15 hrs of video is uploaded to
YouTube
• Twitter use grew 1382% in the last year
• FaceBook boasts 175 million users
• 4.1 billion mobile phones worldwide
• 50 million iPhone users
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

25. Some figures
• Every minute 15 hrs of video is uploaded to
YouTube
• Twitter use grew 1382% in the last year
• FaceBook boasts 175 million users
• 4.1 billion mobile phones worldwide
• 50 million iPhone users
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

26. Why Simulation?
Helping you to look around corners
• Simulation is a means to engender experience
• Create a neutral learning environment- no right or wrong
• Not process-oriented
• Plenary sessions are a ‘break from the action’
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

27. How does it work?
• Development of a realistic scenario
• Role players working in real-time from their
respective locations, time zones, languages
• Use of simple web-based tools that can
support clients in crisis management
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

28. Client Title
FBA Simulation Outline
FBA Scenario OUTLINE Dates Place
03-07 September, 2007 Sandö
Role: Head of Mission, Jabal Nafusa Role: Head of Mission, Jabal Nafusa Role: Head of Mission, Jabal Nafusa
03 September, 207: 2 months since back- Real-time- 04 September, 2007 Real-time- 04 September, 2007
ground documents
F Task 2: Re-visit the exercise of flagging key I Text 5: Email from the Desk with Operations
Provide Lani City Map
A Text 1: Major Events July-August; increas- information that you completed in Task 1. Director in cc: They had a discussion with
ingly complex and unpredictable situation. Please focus on how you might find a balance Foreign Ministry, link to Eva-Britt whose father
B Text 2: Email from Lani office- Security between risks, operational priorities and prin- is a minister in the government. Give of us
Situation from THI (02 September, 2007)- 1 ciples. some insight on your thinking: Are we really
car jacking, 1 armed robbery of house, small doing all that we can in security?
G Audio 2: Voicemail from Edith Fortier- She J Task 3: What do you answer to the Director
incidents.
C Video 1: Glimpse of Security Coordination of Operation’s email? 15 min
puts into question whether David isn’t getting
Meeting in Jabal Nafusa. a bit panicky- we should talk.
D Task 1: Flag what you consider to be the K Video 2: Radio operator, Lani- Convoy has
H Text 3 THI Operations Update: August
most important information. Explain why you been machine-gunned, it’s the driver who is
feel this information is so important, and try to Update, standard 2-pager of facts and figures. wounded who is calling.
L Task 4: What do you do now?
rank the information according to these crite-
ria.- 15 min Plenary (PM 04 September) Discussion: risk M Text 6 BBC Website Piece: Initial reports,
E Audio 1: Voicemail from Dave Donaldson- thresholds, acceptable work hazards, assum- confused, targeted by government forces as
ing responsibility for strategic decisions.
Doctors of the World are pulling out- we get part of campaign aimed at...
their compound.
Plenary (PM 04 September) Discussion: What
Plenary (AM 04 September)- start talking how went wrong? Was there really a mistake?
risk and operations equate.
Session 1: What is important info? Session 2: Confusion around realities Session 3: Sudden onset crisis
Key Issue: Is the risk worthwhile? Key Issue: Balance ops-security Key Issue: Crisis Management
!
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

29. How does it work?
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

30. How does it work?
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

31. How does it work?
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

32. How does it work?
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

33. How does it work?
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

34. How does it work?
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

35. How does it work?
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

36. How does it work?
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

37. How does it work?
• Record your thinking, decisions and the rationale behind your
decision(s)
• Plenary sessions to present and question your peers
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

38. How does one design it?
5 Tips
• Identifying and addressing vulnerabilities
• Linking tactical incidents that take on strategic importance
• Exposing managers to the ‘porpoise effect’
• Participants are always faced with at least two pieces of
contradictory information
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

39. theworstcase.com
Helping you to look around corners
A recently formed initiative to
provide companies and
organizations with a platform of
innovative opportunities in
emergency response preparedness
training and “ready for the
unexpected” status evaluation.
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

40. theworstcase.com
Public/Private sector experience
• Corporate clients, international
organizations, armed forces
• Actors operating globally in politically
charged, hostile environments
• Clients that function in complex
networks, with diverse stakeholders
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

41. theworstcase.com
Services
• Risk audit and profile analysis
• Emergency response decision-making
• Developing crisis management
protocols and contingency plans
• Critical incident management
• Simulation training to test
preparedness
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

42. What can we offer?
• Quick alert tests of your response system (3 hrs) to verify
communications, call-up, initial response, staffing, etc.
• Management workshop to bring all stakeholders together to
review procedures and participate in a desk top drill
• Full-scale simulation exercise drawn from your risk profile and
testing all levels and responsibilities.
‘Hope for the best - but plan for the worst’

43. Questions?
www.theworstcase.com

44. Questions?
www.theworstcase.com