When developing new products or managing projects our mind very often tricks us. We think we're right but we're often subject to fallacies and biases which lead our product or project astray. I'm describing some tools which help us to keep our minds from deceiving us. Because our thinking is the number one success factor for successful projects and products.

1. Cognitive Fallacies & Biases
- And How To Deal With Them.
PM Camp – 2014-06-21

2. Product Development
& Project Management
From Vision To
Implementation

3. How Do We Work? In A Way That Fits The Requirements.

4. Which Tools Ensures Success?
None.
The
Lean/Product/Project/Business
Canvas

5. Development Processes Do Processes Ensure Success?
No.

6. If it‘s not processes …
What is it about?
You!
http://www.fastcompany.com/1810918/3-secrets-recruiting-tech-talent-tough-markets

7. Leadership
Leadership starts with you.
Your company will inherit your
values, processes and culture.
This will determine your product
or project success.
7
http://www.davidoliete.com/

8. The Problem With You …
You Suck at Thinking.
http://imgur.com/1DEYI

9. Survivorship Bias
All winners do …
http://albumwar2.com/german-soldiers-inspect-shot-down-soviet-bomber-sb-2m/

10. Availability heuristic
Mental Shortcut which uses
anecdotal evidence instead of
statistical data.
http://blog.asmartbear.com/customer-validation.html

11. Cognitive Dissonance
Confirmation Bias
It hurts to be wrong.
We avoid evidence of our failure.
We look for proof of our idea instead of
validation.

12. Endowment Effect
Loss Aversion
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Now that we invested so much we can‘t
throw it away.
http://www.odt.co.nz/files/story/2012/12/gollum____helping_lure_precious_visitors_reuters_w_50ca509bb5.JPG

13. Optimism Bias
93% deem their driving ability above median.
Chance for enterprises to survive 5 years: 30%
Entrepreneurs who think they’ll make it: 80%
http://pics.kuvaton.com/kuvei/traffic_jam3.jpg

14. Bias blind spots
“And why worry about a speck in
your friend's eye when you have
a log in your own?”
https://medium.com/p/5b374cfeb43c

15. Best-Practice?
Most common project-
methode: SALT
http://kaleidoscopebrain.wordpress.com/tag/self-help/

16. Cargo Cult
http://www.theresilientearth.com/?q=content/cargo-cult-climate-science

17. Know Thyself?
You won‘t know yourself.
You won‘t change.
Just deal with yourself – professionally.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Otto_Greiner_-_Odysseus_und_die_Sirenen.jpg

18. Empirical Process Control
“If a process is too unpredictable or too complicated for
the planned, (predictive) approach, then the empirical
approach (measure and adapt) is the method of choice.”
Ken Schwaber
http://r2blog.com/2012/02/23/should-we-look-for-gnu-new-ways/ford-assembly-line-copy/

19. Doubt Yourself!
Many founders are overly
confident
It's good to doubt. Accept the
doubt.
Allow for doubt in your team.
http://images.fotocommunity.de/bilder/raubtiere/baeren/stirnrunzeln-1fb6706e-9ceb-4b9b-a7cc-0319abd8e517.jpg

20. Breathe!
Stop! Step up/out! Reflect!
Be mindful.
http://d1jqu7g1y74ds1.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Yoda-Meditating.jpg

21. Explicate!
Mind dumps
Mindful Conversation
Listen. Loop. Feel.
Listening/Psychater
http://craigsnodgrassart.com/project/brain-dump-extreme-doodling/

22. Pre-Mortem Why did we fail?
http://www.fastcodesign.com/1668984/the-challenger-explosion-rendered-in-cauliflower

23. More …
Fallacies
 Dualism
 Anchoring
 Bandwagon Effect
 Frequency Illusion
 …
Tools
 Reframing
 Worst Case
 Scenario Planning
 …

24. Good Luck.
http://ayay.co.uk/backgrounds/science/space/Other-Space-Shuttle-Launch.jpg