Flammulated Owls are a sensitive, indicator species. Modeling enabled me to extrapolate demographic data and discern meaningful relationships between specific vegetation parameters and the owls\' reproductive success.

1. Modeling habitat quality for a breeding population of Flammulated Owls (Otus flammeolus) Quintana Baker, Brian Linkhart and Steven Janke

2. Introduction Bird populations depend on resources for breeding success High vs. low habitat quality: Availability of requisite resources Reproductive rates vs. mortality rates Difficult to distinguish habitat quality Empirical data Spatial scales Modeling is a helpful tool

3. Flammulated Owl Habitat Associations Habitat associations poorly understood Territories must: Attract females Provide all requirements for breeding pair & offspring Habitat parameters which provide resources? Goal: Index of breeding habitat quality

4. Hypotheses Most important habitat parameters: Area and/or percent of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) Forest structure of large trees Most important demographic parameters: Fecundity Total fledgling production Optimal habitat quality index

5. Study area N  Mosaic of forest types Demographic parameters (1981-2006): Occupancy Reproduction Habitat parameters: Forest type Forest structure Tree density Crown volume Hotel Gulch 510 ha 2,500-3,000 m

6. Methods Probability model Territory focus Extrapolated the empirical data Relationships between habitat parameters and demographic parameters Index of habitat quality developed

7. Results R2 = 53.2%

8. Results R2 = 35.8% 1 2 3 4 5 6

9. Results Index= (area of ponderosa pine)(forest structure of large trees) High quality Low quality

10. Conclusion Mature ponderosa pine habitat key to reproductive success Greater requisite resources Attract females, more nesting events Fire-maintained forests

11. Further Research Habitat associations of other populations throughout range? Habitat quality at the population scale? Utilize modeling Fill gaps in data Long-term patterns More effective research

12. Acknowledgments Thank you to Brian Linkhart, Steven Janke, the Flam crew, the CC Biology Department, and the National Science Foundation

13. Questions?