1. Global Sensitivity Analysis for
Impact Assessments
Matthew Aiello-Lammens
H. Resit Akçakaya
Stony Brook University
Ecological Society of America 2013

3. Integration of Sea-Level Rise model
(SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis
(RAMAS GIS)
•Land cover
•Geology
•Local accretion and
erosion rates
•SLR / climate change
scenario
Current species
distribution
Sea-level Rise
Model (SLAMM)
Population size
through time
Land cover
change
through time
Demographic Model
(RAMAS GIS)
Current demographic data
Habitat Suitability
Model (MaxEnt)
Habitat suitability
through time

4. Integration of Sea-Level Rise model
(SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis
(RAMAS GIS)
•Land cover
•Geology
•Local accretion and
erosion rates
•SLR / climate change
scenario
Current species
distribution
Sea-level Rise
Model (SLAMM)
Extinction risk
Population viability
analysis
Land cover
change
through time
Demographic Model
(RAMAS GIS)
Current demographic data
Habitat Suitability
Model (MaxEnt)
Habitat suitability
through time

5. Results
1.1
Relative value to 2010
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
N (No SLR; Ceiling)
0.4
0.3
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100

6. Results
1.1
Relative value to 2010
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
∆ Carrying Capacity
0.6
0.5
N (No SLR; Ceiling)
0.4
0.3
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100

7. Results
1.1
Relative value to 2010
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
∆ Carrying Capacity
0.6
0.5
N (No SLR; Ceiling)
0.4
0.3
2010
N (2m SLR; Ceiling)
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100

8. 2m SLR
1m SLR
No SLR
Expected Minimum
Abundance
Extinction
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2m SLR
1m SLR
No SLR
2m SLR
1m SLR
No SLR
Risk
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Results
Decline to 20

9. Patterns?
Patterns?
Adult Males
0.6
0.4
0.2
Juveniles
0.0
Adult Females
Risk of Decline
0.8
1.0
Processes?
Processes?
0
200
400
Abundance
Risk
600
800

10. Patterns?
Patterns?
Adult Males
0.6
0.4
0.2
Juveniles
0.0
Adult Females
Risk of Decline
0.8
1.0
Processes?
Processes?
0
200
400
Abundance
600
Uncertainty
800

11. Risk-Max - Risk-Min Parameter Value
-0.2
-0.4
-1
Survival, Juvenile
Rmax - Contest DD
Initial Abundance
Correlation
StdDev - Surv, Juvenile
Dispersal
Carrying Capacity
StdDev - Fecundity
StdDev - Survival, Adult
-0.8
Survival, Adult
-0.6
Fecundity
Sensitivity Analysis
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Δ Risk Extiction
Δ Risk to N=20

12. Sensitivity Analysis

14. Fecundity
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival

15. Fecundity
Sensitivity Analysis
Best Estimates
Adult Survival

16. Fecundity
Sensitivity Analysis
Uncertainty
Adult Survival

17. Fecundity
Sensitivity Analysis
Uncertainty
Adult Survival

18. Fecundity
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival

19. Fecundity
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival

20. Fecundity
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival

21. Fecundity
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival

22. Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Uncertain Population and
Vital Rate Parameters
1. Adult Survival
2. Variability of Adult Survival
3. Fecundity (Juvenile Survival
and Maternity)
4. Variability of Fecundity
5. Dispersal
6. Spatial Correlation
7. Carrying Capacity
8. Initial Abundance

23. Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Sample Size / Partition
Number Comparisons:
•
•
•
•
•
100
250
500
1000
10000

24. Relative Influence of Parameters - 10k Simulations

25. Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Sample Size / Partition
Number Comparisons:
•
•
•
•
•
100
250
500
1000
10000

26. Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Sample Size / Partition
Number Comparisons:
•
•
•
•
•
100 (100 sets)
250 (40 sets)
500 (20 sets)
1000 (10 sets)
10000

27. Sensitivity Analysis
Snowy Plover Revisited
Parameter
Fecundity
Adult Survial
Variability of Adult
Survival
Variability of
Fecundity
Carrying Capacity
Spatial Correlation
Dispersal
Initial Abundance
Relative Influence Values as
Determined by BRT Analysis
Sample Size 10k
76.859
20.960
Sample Size 100
79.028
13.861
1.499
2.945
0.441
0.698
0.184
0.025
0.019
0.013
0.628
0.700
0.827
1.312

28. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100
53
71
83
87
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0.35
fecund
Fecundity
0.34
0.33
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0.68 0.69 0.70
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0.68 0.69 0.70
0.68 0.69 0.70
0.68 0.69 0.70
0.68 0.69 0.70
72
0.68 0.69 0.70
91
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Unif
30
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LHS
29
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10
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ad.surv
Adult Survival
2
10
31
39
54
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0.1 0.2 0.3
0.1 0.2 0.3
0.1 0.2 0.3
0.1 0.2 0.3
15
LHS
10
count
5
0
15
Unif
10
5
0
near.neighbor

29. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100
53
71
83
87
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0.35
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Fecundity
0.34
0.33
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0.68 0.69 0.70
0.68 0.69 0.70
0.35
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0.34
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0.33
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0.68 0.69 0.70
●
0.68 0.69 0.70
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95
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0.68 0.69 0.70
0.68 0.69 0.70
0.68 0.69 0.70
0.68 0.69 0.70
72
0.68 0.69 0.70
91
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84
88
92
96
0.1 0.2 0.3
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0.1 0.2 0.3
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Unif
38
● ● ●
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●
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●
Unif
30
●
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LHS
29
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LHS
10
● ●
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ad.surv
Adult Survival
2
10
31
39
54
0.1 0.2 0.3
0.1 0.2 0.3
0.1 0.2 0.3
0.1 0.2 0.3
0.1 0.2 0.3
15
LHS
LHS
10
count
Frequency
5
0
15
Unif
Unif
10
5
0
near.neighbor
Nearest Neighbor Distance

30. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable
Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K
100
1.00
250
snpl.100.SA2
1.0
Correlation Value
snpl.1000.SA2
●
●
●
●
●
●
No SLR
2m
●
●
●
●
1000
snpl.500.SA2
●
●
0.95
500
snpl.250.SA2
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.90
●
●
●
0.85
0.85
●
1.00
1.0
cor.val
●
●
●
0.90
●
●
●
●
2mnocc
SLR
0.95
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.85
0.85
●
1.0
LHS
Unif
LHS
Unif
LHS
Unif
LHS
Unif
unif
lhs
unif
0.5
−0.5
relEnds
0.0
●
●
●
lhs
unif
lhs
unif
lhs
samp

31. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable
Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K
100
1.00
250
snpl.100.SA2
1.0
Correlation Value
snpl.1000.SA2
●
●
●
●
●
●
No SLR
2m
●
●
●
●
1000
snpl.500.SA2
●
●
0.95
500
snpl.250.SA2
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.90
●
●
●
0.85
0.85
●
1.00
1.0
cor.val
●
●
●
0.90
●
●
●
●
2mnocc
SLR
0.95
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.85
0.85
●
1.0
LHS
Unif
LHS
Unif
LHS
Unif
LHS
Unif
unif
lhs
unif
0.5
−0.5
relEnds
0.0
●
●
●
lhs
unif
lhs
unif
lhs
samp

32. Sensitivity Analysis
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
2010
2060
Year
2m SLR: ∆ Carrying Capacity
Relative value to 2010
Relative value to 2010
Paired Simulations for Impact Assessment
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
2010
2060
Year
No SLR: ∆ Carrying Capacity

33. Sensitivity Analysis
Paired Simulations for Impact Assessment
1.1
Relative value to 2010
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
N (No SLR; Ceiling)
0.4
0.3
2010
N (2m SLR; Ceiling)
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100

34. Sensitivity Analysis
Paired Simulations for Impact Assessment
1.1
Relative value to 2010
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
2010
∆N Due to 2m SLR
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100

35. Density
Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Probability of Decline to 50
0.8

36. Density
Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Probability of Decline to 50
0.8

37. Density
Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – 2m SLR
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Probability of Decline to 50
0.8

38. Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50
Density
Unpaired Bootstrap
-0.5
0.0
0.5
∆ Probability of Decline to 50
1.0

39. Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50
Unpaired Bootstrap
Density
Mean Difference = 0.074
-0.5
0.0
0.5
∆ Probability of Decline to 50
1.0

40. Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50
Density
Paired Simulations
-0.5
0.0
0.5
∆ Probability of Decline to 50

41. Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50
Unif
Frequency
LHS
Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR
Unif
Frequency
LHS
Probability of Decline to 50 – 2m SLR

42. Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50
Unif
Frequency
LHS
Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR
Unif
Frequency
LHS
∆ Probability of Decline to 50 (Result of 2m SLR)

43. Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable
Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K
100
1.00
250
snpl.100.SA2
1.0
Correlation Value
snpl.1000.SA2
●
●
●
●
●
●
No SLR
2m
●
●
●
●
1000
snpl.500.SA2
●
●
0.95
500
snpl.250.SA2
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.90
●
●
●
0.85
0.85
●
1.00
1.0
●
●
●
0.90
●
●
●
●
2mnocc
SLR
0.95
cor.val
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.85
0.85
●
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
−0.5
Paired
relEnds
0.5
●
●
●
lhs
LHS
unif
Unif
lhs
LHS
unif
Unif
lhs
samp
LHS
unif
Unif
lhs
LHS
unif
Unif

44. Current Implementations
Glossy Buckthorn Invasive
Effects of land-use change
Density dependence
models
Passenger Pigeon –
Extinctions
Effects of land-use change
Impact of harvest /
hunting
NA Herps – Impacts of
Climate Change
Effects of climate change
scenarios

45. Acknowledgements:
HR Akcakaya, J Stanton, A Cahill, G Sorrentino, H Ryu, E Kneip,
K Shoemaker, M Aldred, S Sabatino, SERDP Collaborators
Funding:
SERDP and NASA