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Emerging Markets Outlook By Peter Urbani 25 November 2011
Why Emerging Markets ? “ A significant transformation of the global economy is well under way. Growth market economies will be the driver of the world economy in the coming decade.”  - Jim O'Neill*, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management  *Author of : Building better Economic BRICS
Why Emerging Markets ? Source: IMF - WEO Forecasts Sep 2011
Why Emerging Markets ? Source: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective p262, IMF - WEO Forecasts Sep 2011
Why Emerging Markets ?
BRIC and Emerging – High Growth
Deflationary forces still in place
EM do not share the Debt problems
Developed Markets Outlook
Emerging Markets Outlook Note: GDP and Pop weights grossed up from 90.865% and 70.154% respectively to reflect missing countries. Total World GDP 70,012 Bn
What are ‘Emerging Markets’ ? Source: MSCI
Why Emerging Markets ? Source: MSCI
Why Emerging Markets ? Source: MSCI
US ‘Strong Dollar Policy’ a major driver Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
US ‘Strong Dollar Policy’ a major driver Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
Developed Markets Performance Source: MSCI
Emerging Markets Performance Source: MSCI
Market Inefficiencies ? Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
Market Inefficiencies ? Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
Market Inefficiencies ? Source: MSCI , US Federal Reserve
Over the longer term there is clear bias towards Value  And a general aversion to Growth* * This may just represent the last 10 years poor market conditions USD
Over the shorter term there has been some appetite for more Growth probably reflecting investors hunt for yield Large Cap interest may reflect investor concerns over liquidity USD
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Peter (‘Pietro’) Urbani ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],http://nz.linkedin.com/in/peterurbani

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