Nano and Micro-satellite Market assessment_2014

2014
Nano / Microsatellite
Market Assessment
Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)

2Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)
2014 Nano / Microsatellite Market Assessment
Developed by:
Ms. Elizabeth Buchen
Director, Engineering Economics Group
elizabeth.buchen@sei.aero | 1+770.379.8006
Mr. Dominic DePasquale
Space Ventures Specialist
dominic.depasquale@sei.aero | 1+770.379.8009
Published by:
SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)
Atlanta, GA

SpaceWorks’ 2013 Projection estimated 93 nano/
microsatellites would launch globally in 2013; 92 nano/
microsatellites actually launched, an increase of 269% over
2012
2013
2014+
SpaceWorks’ 2014 Projection reflects a significant increase in
the quantity of future nano/microsatellites needing a launch.
This year’s projection is 2-3 times higher than our 2013
projection in the later years (2017 – 2020), which is driven by
the emergence and continued growth of commercial players in
the 1-50 kg satellite market.

2014 Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment Overview
§  The data source for this study is the SpaceWorks Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB)
•  The LDDB is an extensive database of all known historical (2000 – 2013) and future (2014+) satellite
projects with masses between 0 kg and 10,000+ kg
•  Currently 650 future (2014 – 2016) nano/microsatellites (1 – 50 kg) in the LDDB (focus of this study)
•  Currently 48 future (2014+) picosatellites (< 1 kg) in the LDDB (not included in this study)
§  SpaceWorks has projected global launch demand in the nano/microsatellite market according to a
Gompertz logistic curve from 2014 to the year 2020
•  Note that SpaceWorks places no value judgment on whether developers will successfully meet
their announced launch date or not
§  The nano/microsatellite projection was developed from a combination of two data sets
•  Publicly announced nano/microsatellite projects and programs
•  Quantitative and qualitative adjustments to account for the expected sustainment of current projects and
programs (e.g. follow-on to EDSN, CubeSat Launch Initiative), as well as the continued emergence and
growth of numerous existing commercial companies
Projections indicate substantial growth in nano/microsatellite launches, with an estimated range of 410 to
543 nano/microsatellites (1-50 kg) that will need launches globally in 2020 (compared to 92 in 2013)

Nano/Microsatellite Definitions and Terminology
§  Many nanosatellites are based on the
“CubeSat” standard
•  Developed in by California Polytechnic State
University and Stanford University in 1999
•  Consists of any number of 10 cm x 10 cm x 10
cm units
•  Each unit, or “U”, usually has a volume of
exactly one liter
•  Each “U” has a mass close to 1 kg and not to
exceed 1.33 kg (e.g. a 3U CubeSat has mass
between 3 and 4 kg)
§  This study limits the upper end of microsatellite
mass to 50 kg given the relative large amount
of satellite development activity in the 1-50 kg
range by comparison to the 50-100 kg range.
Satellite Class Mass Range
Femtosatellite 10 – 100 g
Picosatellite < 1 kg
Nanosatellite 1 – 10 kg
Scope of this study 1 – 50 kg
Microsatellite 10 – 100 kg
Small Satellite 100 – 500 kg
Aalborg University’s
AAUSAT4 CubeSat

Nano/Microsatellite Applications and Associated Examples
Scientific Research
Phonesat 1.0
Mass: 1 kg
Launched: 4/2013
Technology
SwampSat
Mass: 1.2 kg
Launched: 11/2013
Earth Observation
Dove 2
Mass: 5.5 kg
Launched: 4/2013
Education
ArduSat
Mass: 1 kg
Launched: 8/2013
Military Application
SENSE-1
Mass: 5 kg
Launched: 11/2013
Astronomy
BRITE-PL
Mass: 7 kg
Launched: 11/2013
Credit: University of Florida Credit: Planet LabsCredit: http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/small_spacecraft/phonesat.html
Credit: http://www.dk3wn.info/sat/afu/sat_ardusat.shtml Credit: USAF/SMC

302
344
380
410
436
487
521
543
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
NumberofSatellites
(1-50kg)
Calendar Year
Full Market Potential
SpaceWorks Projection
Historical Launches
Nano/Microsatellite Launch History and Projection (1 - 50 kg)
* Please see End Notes 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6.
The Full Market Potential dataset is a combination of publically announced launch intentions, market research, and qualitative/quantitative assessments to account for future activities and programs.
The SpaceWorks Projection dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.
Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate
between 2,000 and 2,750 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through 2020

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
* Assumes two NSF Geospace & Atmospheric CubeSat satellites selected in 2014. NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative total includes the sixteen
missions chosen in February 2014 (in response to August 2013 Announcement of Opportunity) and the timeframe listed is based on when the
already selected CubeSats are scheduled to launch. QB50 total includes two precursor satellites.
Please see End Notes 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7.
Nano/Microsatellite Future Program Summary (1 – 50 kg)
Name of Program/
Satellite Constellation
Timeframe Organization Country Mass (kg)
Launched
to Date
Total
Planned
NSF Geospace &
Atmospheric CubeSat
2010-2015 NSF USA 1-3 7 13
NASA EDSN 2013-2014 NASAARC USA 3 0 8
NASA CubeSat
Launch Initiative
2011-2017 NASA USA 1-12 24 115
SeeMe Payloads 2016 DARPA USA 12 0 6
QB50 2015
Von Karman
Institute /
Various
Various 2 0 52
HUMSAT 2013-2014
University of
Vigo / Various
Various 1 0 9
QB50
HUMSAT
Commercial
(USA)
Other
(Foreign)
SeeMe
NSF
EDSN
CSLI
Other
Programs,
75%
Existing
Large
Programs,
25%
Existing large programs will comprise only 25% of future
nano/microsatellites (compared to 65% in 2013) due to
worldwide growth in the civil and commercial sectors
(2014 – 2016)
Large Program Breakdown for Announced Future Satellites
Other
(USA)
NumberofSatellites
(1-50kg)

3 22
10
366
26
38
88
224
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NumberofSatellitesNano/Microsatellite Trends by Sector (1 – 50 kg)
Commercial sector
will contribute
56% of future nano/
microsatellites
Civil
Government
Commercial
Defense/Intelligence
Historical
(2009 – 2013)
(2014 – 2016)
* Please see End Notes 2, 6, 7, and 8.
The civil sector remains strong, contributing over one third of future nano/microsatellites,
but it will see reductions compared to 2009-2013 when the sector contributed 63%

Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Purpose (1 – 50 kg)
Technology
Communications
Communications
Total: 202
Historical
(2009 – 2013)
SpaceWorks
Projection
(2014 - 2016)
2%
12%
21%
10%
55%
Reconnaissance
2%
52%
17%
9%
20%
Technology
Scientific
Earth Observation/
Remote Sensing
Reconnaissance
Scientific
Earth Observation/
Remote Sensing
Total: 650
* Please see End Notes 2, 6, and 7.
A smaller proportion of technology development/demonstration nano/microsatellites
will be built in the next few years (20% vs. 55% from 2009 to 2013)
Over half of future nano/microsatellites will be used for
Earth observation and remote sensing purposes (compared to 12% from 2009 to 2013)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Percentage Contribution
Nanosatellite Size Trends (1 - 10 kg)
Historical
(2009 – 2013)
SpaceWorks
Projection
(2014 – 2016)
25%
1 kg 3 kg2 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg
3%
1 kg 3 kg2 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg
* Please see End Notes 2, 6, 7, and 9.
1U (1 kg) CubeSats, while still immensely popular, will comprise less of the market in the
future (35% of future nanosatellites compared to 47% from 2009 to 2013)
25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly popular 6 kg mass class
(compared to only 3% from 2009 to 2013)

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NumberofSatellites
Calendar Year
Historical Nano/Microsatellites Launched: 2000 - 2013 (1 - 50 kg)
1 – 10 kg
11 – 50 kg
A 330% increase in attempted nanosatellite (1-10 kg) deliveries in 2013,
compared to 2012, shows signs of an emerging and growing launch market
Significant growth
in the 1-10 kg
mass range
* Please see End Notes 1 and 2.

Historical Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Launch Vehicle (2000 - 2013)
Launch Vehicle
No. of
Satellites
No. of
Launches
Percentage of
Satellites Launched
Kosmos-3M 50 6 20%
Dnepr-1 34 4 14%
Minotaur I 34 4 14%
PSLV 21 6 9%
H-2 18 5 7%
Space Shuttle 12 6 5%
Falcon 9 11 2 4%
Soyuz 9 5 4%
Delta II 8 3 3%
Long March 7 4 3%
Minotaur IV 8 1 3%
Vega 8 2 3%
Other 8 5 3%
Antares 4 1 2%
Atlas V 5 2 2%
Rokot-KM 6 1 2%
Falcon 1 2 1 1%
M-5 (2) 2 2 1%
Launch Vehicle
No. of
Satellites
No. of
Launches
Percentage of
Satellites Launched
Kosmos-3M 25 9 24%
Dnepr-1 9 2 9%
H-2 9 6 9%
Minotaur I 9 2 9%
PSLV 8 6 8%
Minotaur IV 7 5 7%
Safir 6 6 6%
Soyuz 6 6 6%
Long March 5 5 5%
Other 5 5 4%
Pegasus-XL 3 1 3%
Space Shuttle 3 2 3%
Delta IV Heavy 2 1 2%
KT-1 2 2 2%
Rokot-KM 2 2 2%
Atlas V 1 1 1%
Delta II 1 1 1%
Falcon 1 1 1 1%
Falcon 9 1 1 1%
Launch Vehicles: 2000-2013 for
1-10 kg Satellite Class
Launch Vehicles: 2000-2013 for
11-50 kg Satellite Class
Low cost piggy-back opportunities have historically attracted
small satellite payloads to international launch vehicles
* Please see End Note 2.

Emergence of Commercial Companies: 2013 Case Study
§  SpaceWorks released its annual nano/microsatellite
projections in February of 2013
•  According to the projection, 93 satellites (1-50 kg)
were planning to launch in 2013
•  92 satellites (1-50 kg) actually launched in 2013
§  Based on the announced launch data alone, 2014
will see a 52% increase in nano/microsatellites
launched compared to 2013
§  Commercial companies will contribute over one-
fourth of all nano/microsatellites launched in 2014
•  This is a significant increase from 2013, where the
commercial sector contributed only 11%
•  The continued emergence and growth of commercial
Commercial Company Satellite Class Satellite Application
Dauria Aerospace Nano
Deep Space Industries Nano
GeoOptics, Inc. Micro
ISIS Nano/Micro
Outernet (MDIF) Nano
NanoSatisfi Nano
Planet Labs Nano
Planetary Resources, Inc. Nano/Micro
SpaceQuest, Ltd. Micro
companies (see table) will result in an even greater increase in 2015, with the sector contributing 60% of all nano/
microsatellites launched
§  Many companies have publicly revealed their near-term intentions regarding future launches of nano/
microsatellites and the satellites’ wide spectrum of revenue generating applications
§  Other companies have been more reserved, revealing only small details of their plans
Ship
Tracking
Asteroid
Exploration
Data
Collection
Earth Obs./
Remote Sensing
Precise quantities aside, strong evidence suggests the commercial sector will
have a meaningful and enduring impact on the nano/microsatellite industry

2014 Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment Conclusions
§  The nano/microsatellite market is growing tremendously with the continued use of the CubeSat standard,
microelectronics and other technology development, government programs, and furthering of applications
§  The civil sector remains strong, but the eruption of commercial companies and start-up activities will
continue to influence the nano/microsatellite market; future launches suggest this trend will continue
§  Projections based on both announced and anticipated plans of developers indicate 2,000 – 2,750 nano/
microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through 2020
§  Nano/Microsatellite CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate):
•  Historical average growth of 37.2% per year over the last 4 years (2009 – 2013)
•  SpaceWorks’ Projection Dataset shows average growth of 23.8% per year over the next 6 years (2014 – 2020)
§  While 1U (1 kg) CubeSats are still widely used, 25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly
popular 6 kg mass class
§  Applications for nano/microsatellites are diversifying, with increased use in the future for Earth observation and
remote sensing missions

Custom analyses and more detailed assessments are
available from SpaceWorks for nano/microsatellites
and larger satellite classes
For additional information or to request a quote,
please contact:
Ms. Elizabeth Buchen
Director, Engineering Economics Group
1+770.379.8006
elizabeth.buchen@sei.aero

End Notes
1.  The number of satellites may not equal the number of launches since many small satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite co-
manifested on a particular launch vehicle). Historical data includes failed launch attempts.
2.  The data used throughout this presentation (both historical and future) may not represent all global nano/microsatellite activities.
3.  All NSF satellites thus far have launched through the NASA CSLI. In the table, these historical NSF satellites are included in both the count of
number launched for NSF and the count for CSLI (double counted in this sense). The bar graph of future launches shows only those NSF satellites
that expected, but currently not manifested (thus they are appropriately single counted for future launches).
4.  The SpaceWorks Projection and Full Market Potential datasets include some known nano/microsatellite programs for which a specific launch date
has not been announced. The satellites belonging to these programs are distributed across the period (date range) for launches according to the
announced program objectives
5.  Future projections from 2017-2020 are determined by Gompertz logistic curve “best fit” regression with market saturation point (asymptote for
number of satellites) set at 525 nano/microsatellites in a year for the SpaceWorks Projection dataset and 580 for the Full Market Potential dataset.
6.  The Full Market Potential dataset contains all currently known past and future nano/microsatellites from the SpaceWorks LDDB, with the addition of
an inflating factor for known unknowns plus assumed sustainment of certain current projects and programs (e.g. follow-on to NASAAmes EDSN,
CubeSat Launch Initiative, DARPA SeeMe) and the continued emergence and growth of numerous existing commercial companies. The
SpaceWorks Projection dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.
7.  These graphs are based on the SpaceWorks Projection dataset only, and do not include the additional satellites contained in the Full Market
Potential dataset.
8.  By some traditional definitions of space industrial sectors, non-defense government space activities are a subsector of the civil sector. Here we
break out non-defense government activities into a separate sector. “Government” refers to those nano/microsatellite development efforts that occur
within/by the government agency or organization (e.g. NASA, JAXA). Civil refers to all other non-defense development activities (e.g. universities,
federally funded research institutions), though the funding source may be a government agency.
9.  Nanosatellites are binned by rounding mass to the nearest whole number. Picosatellites less than 1 kg are not included.
10.  Satellite application images are credited to the following websites: http://sweetclipart.com/colorable-earth-line-art-709,
http://www.clker.com/clipart-binary-data.html, http://hasloo.com/freecliparts/?p=520, http://bestclipartblog.com/24-ship-clip-art.html.

SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC. (SEI) | www.sei.aero | info@sei.aero
1040 Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 | Atlanta, GA 30338 USA | +1.770.379.8000

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