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Building an SME Portfolio – A VC’s
           Perspective


            Pranay Veer
           PGDM 2011-13
          NMIMS Hyderabad
Many SMEs in traditional sectors have limited access to equity
                                        capital


                         To establish an Asset Management Company


                 Provide Venture Capital/ Private Equity funding services



                     To conduct a feasibility study of an SME Growth fund after identifying
                                           potential SME Sectors




                                     To critically evaluate the
                                                                      To build a portfolio of the
To identify potential sectors      identified sectors & suggest
                                                                    sectors & project future Cash
  for investment in SMEs            highly potential sectors for
                                                                          Flows of the fund
                                            investment
How to know????
 Is it feasible? If so – Which sectors? 5yr to 10 yr horizon?
 Structure/ Framework – To study the feasibility of the SME fund


                             Analysis of the Environment
     SME Industry Analysis                 Opportunities for Venture Capitalists in SME


                                 Selection of SME Sectors
Identification of Sectors (12 Sectors)    Assessment of Selected SME Sectors (6 Sectors)

              Construction of Portfolio - Developing different Portfolios
Equal Weighted Portfolio        Growth Based Portfolio           Score Based Portfolio


                         Portfolio Projections - 10 Years
        5 Year EXIT Scenario                           3 Year EXIT Scenario
                - Selected Scenarios
Analysis of the Environment
   79000 SMEs or 5% of the total MSMEs in India
                                                                     Investment Scenario
                     -Ministry of MSME                               in SMEs
  Generate 30% of                             Contribute to 63%      • Difficult to get
                      55% of the Gross                                 conventional funding
 total employment                               of total Fixed
                          Output
     (28 lakhs)                                     Assets           • Most companies have
                                                                       less asset base
                                                                     • Take higher risk
          Growth Rates -SME v/s Industry
                                 7.92%                    1.5
Average                                   12%             times
2007-08                          8%                                  Venture capital - A
                                                    14%
                                                                     savior
2006-07                                   11.50%
                                              13%                    • Focus  Growth
2005-06                         7.50%                     Industry     prospects and not on
                                              12%
                                                                       security
2004-05                          8%                                  • Investment Long
                                         11%
                                                          SME          term horizon
2003-04                     6.50%                         Sector
                                        10%                          • Profile >> High risk
2002-03                    6%                                           High return
                                    9%

                    Source: SME White-book 2011-12, Businessworld
Selection of Sectors - MATRIX
1                                 2                                3
    Survey of                           Dun & Bradstreet                 Ministry of MSME
    Venture                            Research
                                                                                                   12
                                                                       • Top 10 sectors based     sectors
    Capitalists                        • Identified 10                   on the Total number of
    • 12 websites                        potential sectors               enterprises (74.18%)

M
A
N
U
F
A
C
T
U
R
I
N
G

      Manufacturing                                           Services
      1.   Food Products & Beverages                     1.   Retail
      2.   Textiles                                                                       Selected
                                                         2.   Hotels & Restaurants        Sectors
      3.   Publishing, Printing & Reproduction of
           Recorded Media
                                                         3.   Education
Portfolio Construction
                                                                    Avg. IIP Growth rate
 Initial   • Rs.20 Crores                       Manufacturing
                                                                          (2005-12)              1.5 times
Corpus     • Min. corpus to start a
             fund under (AIF)                                                                   these rates
of Fund      Regulations                                                                          (SME =
                                                                                                 Industry *
                                                            Revenue growth rate (2012-13)           1.5)
                                                 Services    (CMIE - Economic Survey –
                                                                       2011)


To be invested in a series of: (3 stage investment)
                                                                           Equal
Total Corpus        20 Crores         Crore   EXIT Yr                     weighted
                                                                          Portfolio
                                                                                            Score
Year - 1 (2012)         25%             5      2017                                         Based
                                                                                           Portfolio
Year - 2 (2013)         35%             7      2018
                                                                           Growth
                                                                             Rate
Year - 3 (2014)         40%             8      2019                         Based
                                                                           portfolio
Portfolio Cash Flow - Criteria
             No. of years to Exit the Proposed Investment
              3 Years                                 5 years


                            Fund Projections
                           10 years (2012-2021)


                             Hit/Loss Ratio
        1 in every 5 companies is considered as a Loss Company (20%)


No. of Companies calculation - For every investment (Hit/ Loss)

Below 1.5 Crores   > 1.5 – 2.5 Crores > 2.5 – 3.5 Crores > 3.5 – 4.5 Crores
 – 1 Company        – 2 Companies      – 3 Companies      – 4 Companies
Cash Flows - 5 Year Exit Scenario
PARAMETERS                      3 Year Exit Scenario                 5 Year Exit Scenario
CAGR of the Portfolio                        17.95%                             18.59%
Average of the CAGR
                                              9.76%                             13.42%
(post Hit/Loss ratio)
                                High Risk, comparatively less        Comparatively less Risk, Stable
Risk/ Return
                                           returns                             Return


               Comparison with the Benchmarks
                                        FUND NAME                         5 year Annualized
   CATEGORY
                               (RANK 1 Funds – Money Control)                  Returns
     INDEX              SENSEX**                                                 15%

SMALL & MID CAP         HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund (G)                      10%

SMALL & MID CAP         SBI Magnum Emerging Businesses Fund (G)                 6.60%
   LARGE CAP            Fidelity Equity Fund (G)                                6.90%
   LARGE CAP            UTI Opportunities Fund (G)                              12.60%
      Index             Franklin India Index Fund - BSE Sensex (G)              3.80%
      Index             UTI Nifty Index Fund (G)                                3.50%
   SME Fund             SME Fund - Post Hit/loss ratio                         13.42%

         ** SENSEX – 10 year annualized returns
         Source: Money Control
FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATION
    79000 SMEs in India contribute to 63% of total Fixed Assets and 55% of the Gross
                                  Output of MSME


              Growth rate of MSME sector is 1.5 times the Indian Industry


     Manufacturing Segment – Food & Beverages, Textiles and Publishing, Printing &
                         Reproduction of Recorded Media


             Services Segment – Education; Retail and Hotels & Restaurants


   In 5 year Exit Scenario – Viable Strategy with a CAGR post Hit/Loss ratio of 13.42%



 SME Fund is a feasible option
 Setup:- After identifying budding companies in the potential
  SME sectors
Limitations                           Scope for Improvement

• SME Industry - Very                  • Company level analysis
  unorganized
                                       • Matrix
• Data availability - Very limited
                                         ▫ Ratings
  in Public domain
                                         ▫ Weights
• Lack of data  Assumptions
                                       • Actual data of growth rate of
• Specific Company level info -not
                                         sectors in SMEs
  used
• Interpretations and conclusions
  - Sector level


                                                         Exit Scenario and
  Academic                                 MSME            Hit/Loss Ratio
                        Score Based
                                      performance and
 Contribution             Matrix
                                         challenges      – An excel sheet
                                                              model
THANK YOU
Appendix I - Definition of MSME
Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises Development (MSMED) Act, 2006




                                         Source: MSME Census 2006-07
Appendix II - Performance of MSME
 PERFORMANCE OF MSME SECTOR
No. of Enterprises (In Lakhs)
                              Micro
                              14.85
                                    Small
                                    0.76
                                          Medium
                                           0.03
                                                 Total
                                                 15.64
% of Total Enterprises          94.94%      4.89%         0.17%        100

Employment (In Lakhs)            65.34       23.43         4.32       93.09
%                               70.19%      25.17%        4.64%        100
Per Unit Employment              4.40        30.83        144.00       5.95

Fixed Assets (In ‘000 Crores)   169.53       223.5        56.09       449.12
%                               37.75%      49.76%       12.49%        100
Per Unit Fixed Asset            11.42       294.08       1869.67      28.72

Gross Output (In ‘000 Crores)   312.97      318.79        75.74       707.5
%                               44.24%      45.06%       10.71%        100
Per unit Output                  21.08      419.46       2524.67      45.24
                                         Source: Ministry of MSME Census 2006-07
Appendix III - Academic Contribution
1. Score Based Matrix – For Portfolio Construction
2. Analysis of MSME performance and challenges
3. Specific analysis and study on SME Financing challenges
4. Investment Scenario in MSMEs and opportunities to Venture
  Capitalists
5. Construction of Portfolios based on SEBI – AIF Regulations (Draft)
6. Exit Scenario and Hit/Loss Ratio is used for the analysis – An excel
  sheet model can be used to make 10 year projections for 3 year and 5
  year exit scenario by only changing the portfolio weights.

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Venture Capital Funding for SMEs - Pranay Veer

  • 1. Building an SME Portfolio – A VC’s Perspective Pranay Veer PGDM 2011-13 NMIMS Hyderabad
  • 2. Many SMEs in traditional sectors have limited access to equity capital To establish an Asset Management Company Provide Venture Capital/ Private Equity funding services To conduct a feasibility study of an SME Growth fund after identifying potential SME Sectors To critically evaluate the To build a portfolio of the To identify potential sectors identified sectors & suggest sectors & project future Cash for investment in SMEs highly potential sectors for Flows of the fund investment
  • 3. How to know???? Is it feasible? If so – Which sectors? 5yr to 10 yr horizon? Structure/ Framework – To study the feasibility of the SME fund Analysis of the Environment SME Industry Analysis Opportunities for Venture Capitalists in SME Selection of SME Sectors Identification of Sectors (12 Sectors) Assessment of Selected SME Sectors (6 Sectors) Construction of Portfolio - Developing different Portfolios Equal Weighted Portfolio Growth Based Portfolio Score Based Portfolio Portfolio Projections - 10 Years 5 Year EXIT Scenario 3 Year EXIT Scenario - Selected Scenarios
  • 4. Analysis of the Environment 79000 SMEs or 5% of the total MSMEs in India Investment Scenario -Ministry of MSME in SMEs Generate 30% of Contribute to 63% • Difficult to get 55% of the Gross conventional funding total employment of total Fixed Output (28 lakhs) Assets • Most companies have less asset base • Take higher risk Growth Rates -SME v/s Industry 7.92% 1.5 Average 12% times 2007-08 8% Venture capital - A 14% savior 2006-07 11.50% 13% • Focus  Growth 2005-06 7.50% Industry prospects and not on 12% security 2004-05 8% • Investment Long 11% SME term horizon 2003-04 6.50% Sector 10% • Profile >> High risk 2002-03 6%  High return 9% Source: SME White-book 2011-12, Businessworld
  • 5. Selection of Sectors - MATRIX 1 2 3 Survey of Dun & Bradstreet Ministry of MSME Venture Research 12 • Top 10 sectors based sectors Capitalists • Identified 10 on the Total number of • 12 websites potential sectors enterprises (74.18%) M A N U F A C T U R I N G Manufacturing Services 1. Food Products & Beverages 1. Retail 2. Textiles Selected 2. Hotels & Restaurants Sectors 3. Publishing, Printing & Reproduction of Recorded Media 3. Education
  • 6. Portfolio Construction Avg. IIP Growth rate Initial • Rs.20 Crores Manufacturing (2005-12) 1.5 times Corpus • Min. corpus to start a fund under (AIF) these rates of Fund Regulations (SME = Industry * Revenue growth rate (2012-13) 1.5) Services (CMIE - Economic Survey – 2011) To be invested in a series of: (3 stage investment) Equal Total Corpus 20 Crores Crore EXIT Yr weighted Portfolio Score Year - 1 (2012) 25% 5 2017 Based Portfolio Year - 2 (2013) 35% 7 2018 Growth Rate Year - 3 (2014) 40% 8 2019 Based portfolio
  • 7. Portfolio Cash Flow - Criteria No. of years to Exit the Proposed Investment 3 Years 5 years Fund Projections 10 years (2012-2021) Hit/Loss Ratio 1 in every 5 companies is considered as a Loss Company (20%) No. of Companies calculation - For every investment (Hit/ Loss) Below 1.5 Crores > 1.5 – 2.5 Crores > 2.5 – 3.5 Crores > 3.5 – 4.5 Crores – 1 Company – 2 Companies – 3 Companies – 4 Companies
  • 8. Cash Flows - 5 Year Exit Scenario
  • 9. PARAMETERS 3 Year Exit Scenario 5 Year Exit Scenario CAGR of the Portfolio 17.95% 18.59% Average of the CAGR 9.76% 13.42% (post Hit/Loss ratio) High Risk, comparatively less Comparatively less Risk, Stable Risk/ Return returns Return Comparison with the Benchmarks FUND NAME 5 year Annualized CATEGORY (RANK 1 Funds – Money Control) Returns INDEX SENSEX** 15% SMALL & MID CAP HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund (G) 10% SMALL & MID CAP SBI Magnum Emerging Businesses Fund (G) 6.60% LARGE CAP Fidelity Equity Fund (G) 6.90% LARGE CAP UTI Opportunities Fund (G) 12.60% Index Franklin India Index Fund - BSE Sensex (G) 3.80% Index UTI Nifty Index Fund (G) 3.50% SME Fund SME Fund - Post Hit/loss ratio 13.42% ** SENSEX – 10 year annualized returns Source: Money Control
  • 10. FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATION 79000 SMEs in India contribute to 63% of total Fixed Assets and 55% of the Gross Output of MSME Growth rate of MSME sector is 1.5 times the Indian Industry Manufacturing Segment – Food & Beverages, Textiles and Publishing, Printing & Reproduction of Recorded Media Services Segment – Education; Retail and Hotels & Restaurants In 5 year Exit Scenario – Viable Strategy with a CAGR post Hit/Loss ratio of 13.42%  SME Fund is a feasible option  Setup:- After identifying budding companies in the potential SME sectors
  • 11. Limitations Scope for Improvement • SME Industry - Very • Company level analysis unorganized • Matrix • Data availability - Very limited ▫ Ratings in Public domain ▫ Weights • Lack of data  Assumptions • Actual data of growth rate of • Specific Company level info -not sectors in SMEs used • Interpretations and conclusions - Sector level Exit Scenario and Academic MSME Hit/Loss Ratio Score Based performance and Contribution Matrix challenges – An excel sheet model
  • 12.
  • 14. Appendix I - Definition of MSME Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises Development (MSMED) Act, 2006 Source: MSME Census 2006-07
  • 15. Appendix II - Performance of MSME PERFORMANCE OF MSME SECTOR No. of Enterprises (In Lakhs) Micro 14.85 Small 0.76 Medium 0.03 Total 15.64 % of Total Enterprises 94.94% 4.89% 0.17% 100 Employment (In Lakhs) 65.34 23.43 4.32 93.09 % 70.19% 25.17% 4.64% 100 Per Unit Employment 4.40 30.83 144.00 5.95 Fixed Assets (In ‘000 Crores) 169.53 223.5 56.09 449.12 % 37.75% 49.76% 12.49% 100 Per Unit Fixed Asset 11.42 294.08 1869.67 28.72 Gross Output (In ‘000 Crores) 312.97 318.79 75.74 707.5 % 44.24% 45.06% 10.71% 100 Per unit Output 21.08 419.46 2524.67 45.24 Source: Ministry of MSME Census 2006-07
  • 16. Appendix III - Academic Contribution 1. Score Based Matrix – For Portfolio Construction 2. Analysis of MSME performance and challenges 3. Specific analysis and study on SME Financing challenges 4. Investment Scenario in MSMEs and opportunities to Venture Capitalists 5. Construction of Portfolios based on SEBI – AIF Regulations (Draft) 6. Exit Scenario and Hit/Loss Ratio is used for the analysis – An excel sheet model can be used to make 10 year projections for 3 year and 5 year exit scenario by only changing the portfolio weights.