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BUILDING REAL ESTATE
MARKET INDEXES FOR THE
BRAZILIAN MARKET
Who is
ZAP?
Who is
Fipe?
Brazil:
numbers,
historical
facts and
real estate
market
FipeZAP
partnership:
products and
indexes
Repercussions in
the media
Who is
Fipe?
Brazil:
numbers,
historical
facts and
real estate
market
FipeZAP
partnership:
products and
indexes
Repercussions in
the media
Who is
ZAP?
Launched
2007
ZAP TIMELINE
140x more listings
1000x more audience
than the newspapers
2010
100% owned by Grupo Globo –
The largest media group in Latin
America
70% of TV audience market share
2012
Approximately
400 employees
27 offices in all of Brazil
TODAY
ZAP TIMELINE
Sponsors Formula 1
Top of Mind in classified ads
40.1% revenue growth
2015
ZAP 50% larger than the competition
Acquisitions:
2014
ZAP IN NUMBERS2015 VS 2014
Source: Internal database
VISITS
116mi
36%
SEARCHES LISTINGS
AD IMPRESSIONS LEADS TRANSACTIONS
412Mi
76%
1.1Mi
139%
13Bi
180%
8.4Mi
61%
169.7K
61%
2015
Who is
ZAP?
Brazil:
numbers,
historical
facts and
real estate
market
FipeZAP
partnership:
products and
indexes
Repercussions
in the media
Who is
Fipe?
Indexes
Expertise
Indicators
F I PE
INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC
RESEARCH FOUNDATION
Consumers
Public Sector
Real Estate Market
Academic Programs
Ad-Hoc Projects
Researches
Economic and Financial Indicators
Indicator for Developers
Indicator for Auto Market
Salary-meter
Indicator for Job Market
WHY DOES THE PAS T M ATTE R ?
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
+ 60
+ 200
+ 80
+ 100
+ 120
+ 140
+ 160
+ 180
HOME PRICES IN THE USA
In 2005, the Nobel Prize Winner Robert
Shiller foresaw and demonstrated the
evolution of real estate prices in USA
’
HOW
ABOUT
BRAZIL?
Necessity to create an
index of historical pricing
High volatility in the
political and economic
environments
Historical data is rare
Who is
ZAP?
Who is
Fipe?
FipeZAP
partnership:
products and
indexes
Repercussions
in the media
Brazil:
numbers,
historical
facts and
real estate
market
Largest economy in
South America
and Latin American
region (40% share)
USD 11.38k
in 2014
GDP per capita:
GDP:
USD 2.39
trillion in 2014
Population:
205 million
2nd largest economy
in the Western Hemisphere
Size
3,286,488
square miles
World’s 7th
largest economy
Total homes
50 million
BRAZIL IN
NUMBERS
1964
Beginning of
the military
dictatorship
Until 1964
Market totally
deregulated
1967
New Currency:
Cruzeiro
1964
Establishment of the
Housing Finance
System
1970
New Currency:
Cruzeiro Novo
1966
Creation of the
National Housing
Bank
1964 1970MAIN FACTS
IN BRAZIL
Dictatorship Regime
IN THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET
Time for structuring
1975
Expansion of
the middle class
+ Consumption
= inflation
Low resources
for the real
estate financing
1976
Impact of the
International
oil crisis
1971 1976MAIN FACTS
IN BRAZIL
Economic Growth
IN THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET
Housing Shortage Accumulated Units(Total)
6.000.000
5.000.000
4.000.000
3.000.000
2.000.000
1.000.000
0 1970 1974 19781972 1976 1980
Evolution of the number
of financed homes (Units)
1980
Accumulated
inflation
(110% a.a in 1980)
Banks restrict
new credits
1977 1982MAIN FACTS
IN BRAZIL
End of the
economic miracle
IN THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET
Delinquency as high
as a skyscraper
GPD Evolution
1950 to 1987
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987
Economic
Miracle
“Lost
Decade”
Real Estate
Developers take on
the role of financiers
1984
Social
movement
wanting
democracy
Big unemployment rate
1983 1990MAIN FACTS
IN BRAZIL
End of the dictatorship
IN THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET
Delinquency still growing
Stratospheric
delinquency
Delinquency SFH rate evolution compared to
total financings (1980 – 1984)
20,0%
10,0%
0,0%
60,0%
40,0%
30,0%
50,0%
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
54,6%
Total
1985
GDP growth
reaches 7.8%
1986
New president
and new
currency:
Cruzado
1989
New currency:
Cruzado Novo
Accumulated
inflation:
1.035%
1990
The first
president
elected
by the
brazilians
New loan offers
slowed down
1992
President
Collor was
impeached
Blockage of
financial assets
and 60% of
savings
accounts
1994
New currency: Real
The most successful
economic plan
until nowadays
The lowest amount
of financed houses
since 1965
End of high inflation
4th World Soccer
Cup Title
1991 1995MAIN FACTS
IN BRAZIL
A new chance for Brazil
IN THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET
Stagnation
1996
Monitary Policy
Committee was
established
1997
Establishment of
the Real Estate
Financing
System
1999
Implementation of inflation
targeting in 1999 by
Brazilian Central Bank
2000
300 times more
houses financed
compared to 1994
1996 2000MAIN FACTS
IN BRAZIL
Inflation under control
IN THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET
New housing policy
2002
Record growth of formal jobs
Launched the largest income
distribution program: Bolsa Família
2001 2005MAIN FACTS
IN BRAZIL
Rise of the family
consumption
IN THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET
A new era in real
estate financing
2001
IPO of the 14 main
construction companies
2002
45.6 thousand units launched in
the city of São Paulo - historical
peak for launch and sale
Reduction of interest rates
Increase in financing terms
and percentages
New classified portals on the market
2007
Brazilian GDP grows 6% yoy,
best performance since 1986
2006 2011MAIN FACTS
IN BRAZIL
Brazil takes off
IN THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET
Real estate boom
2007
Creation of
ZAP portal
2009
Minha Casa
Minha Vida:
the largest
federal housing
program for low
income families
2010
Economy grows 7,5%
2010
Number of
financed
houses doubled
2011
Launch of
FipeZAP index
2012
Economy has a
weak performance
Only 0,9% growth
2012 2015MAIN FACTS
IN BRAZIL
Fall, recession
and pessimism
IN THE REAL
ESTATE MARKET
Cooling off period
Decline of home prices
Increase in interest rate in leases
Record number of cancellations up
to 41% over total sales of new homes
Huge offer of new properties
Construction companies deep in
debt
2014
Dilma Rousseff is
reelected president
2015
Decrease of loan-to-value
for pre-owned property
financing from 80% to 50%
2015
GDP estimated
by The International
Monetary Fund:
recession of -3,8%
Who is
ZAP?
Who is
Fipe?
Brazil:
numbers,
historical
facts and
real estate
market
Repercussions
in the media
FipeZAP
partnership:
products and
indexes
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
Jun-65
Jun-66
Jun-67
Jun-68
Jun-69
Jun-70
Jun-71
Jun-72
Jun-73
Jun-74
Jun-75
Jun-76
Jun-77
Jun-78
Jun-79
Jun-80
Jun-81
Jun-82
Jun-83
Jun-84
Jun-85
Jun-86
Jun-87
Jun-88
Jun-89
Jun-90
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
BRL USD Total formal income
FIPEZAP
MAIN HOME PRICE INDEX FOR
BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET
Both movements seem
to have been triggered
by changes in
regulation, which
increased credit supply
Recent boom (and
decline in prices)
was accompanied
by a sharp growth in
total income
Prices in USD are at
the same level as
the late 1970’s
The 2005-2014 boom
was similar to the 1965-
1979:In the 1960’s &
1970’s boom prices
were up by 108% (real
terms); in 2000’s the
increase was 166%
80.60%
64.50%
64.30%
62.10%
59.90%
43.80%
35.20%
23.20%
22.00%
18.90%
14.50%
9.80%
9.70%
7.00%
3.80%
1.50%
UK - 2013
Canada - 2011
Portugal 2013
USA - 2013
Spain - 2013
France - 2013
Germany - 2013
Italy - 2013
South Africa - 2013
Chile - 2012
China - 2012
Mexico - 2013
Brazil - 2014-11
India - 2011
Russia - 2013
Argentina - 2012
(%) Mortgage Loans as of GDP
Source: Abecip
Growth of real estate prices
in Brazil was very fast for
international standards
The current economic scenario
and the enormous volatility seen
over the last 30 years create
additional short-term risks
Over the long term, there
doesn’t seem to be any
abnormal behavior
Potential for development and
expansion of real estate credit
LESSONS LEARNED
PARTNERSHIP
FIPEZAP
TWO FORCES
COMBINED TO PROVIDE
KNOWLEDGE
Calculated based on
property ads published
on ZAP portal
Average price per m² of
ready to move properties
in 20 Brazilian cities
First indicator with a national
scope that monitors home
prices for sale and rental in
Brazil
Real estate market statistics
by area and type of property
WITH FIPE
FIPEZAP PRODUCTS
FIPEZAP INDEXES FOR
S ALE AND R E NTAL
Main indexes of the real
estate market that monitor
the evolution of home
prices for sale and rental
X-RAY RESEARCH
SURVEY WITH OVER
2.000 RESPONDENTS
SEEKS TO IDENTIFY Buyer profile
Purchase objectives
Discounts praticed
Price expectation
B U Y O R R E NT
CALCULATOR
Widget that allows users to
compare purchasing options
from their economic/finance
point of view
FIPEZAP
BULLETIN
Quarterly publication with an
economic analysis focused on
the real estate market outlook
It addresses macroeconomic
topics, indicators and sector
specific perspectives
FIPEZAP
Annual event that
gathers the main
leaders of the brazilian
real estate market
Economic analysis
Market trends
PANEL
Who is
ZAP?
Who is
Fipe?
Brazil:
numbers,
historical
facts and
real estate
market
FipeZAP
partnership:
products and
indexes
Repercussions
in the media
FIPEZAP
MEDIA IMPACT
Renamed national
and international
institutions rely on
FipeZap information
MEDIA E XPO S U R E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kc7eD_Grym0&feature=youtu.be
TWO UNITED
FORCES FORM
A POWER
THAT IS
THE BEST
DEFINITION
FOR FIPEZAP
QUESTIONS?
THANK YOU
BUILDING REAL ESTATE
MARKET INDEXES FOR THE
BRAZILIAN MARKET

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Building Real Estate Market Indices for the Brazilian Market

  • 1. BUILDING REAL ESTATE MARKET INDEXES FOR THE BRAZILIAN MARKET
  • 2. Who is ZAP? Who is Fipe? Brazil: numbers, historical facts and real estate market FipeZAP partnership: products and indexes Repercussions in the media
  • 3. Who is Fipe? Brazil: numbers, historical facts and real estate market FipeZAP partnership: products and indexes Repercussions in the media Who is ZAP?
  • 4. Launched 2007 ZAP TIMELINE 140x more listings 1000x more audience than the newspapers 2010 100% owned by Grupo Globo – The largest media group in Latin America 70% of TV audience market share 2012
  • 5. Approximately 400 employees 27 offices in all of Brazil TODAY ZAP TIMELINE Sponsors Formula 1 Top of Mind in classified ads 40.1% revenue growth 2015 ZAP 50% larger than the competition Acquisitions: 2014
  • 6. ZAP IN NUMBERS2015 VS 2014 Source: Internal database VISITS 116mi 36% SEARCHES LISTINGS AD IMPRESSIONS LEADS TRANSACTIONS 412Mi 76% 1.1Mi 139% 13Bi 180% 8.4Mi 61% 169.7K 61% 2015
  • 7. Who is ZAP? Brazil: numbers, historical facts and real estate market FipeZAP partnership: products and indexes Repercussions in the media Who is Fipe?
  • 8. Indexes Expertise Indicators F I PE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH FOUNDATION Consumers Public Sector Real Estate Market Academic Programs Ad-Hoc Projects Researches Economic and Financial Indicators Indicator for Developers Indicator for Auto Market Salary-meter Indicator for Job Market
  • 9. WHY DOES THE PAS T M ATTE R ? 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 + 60 + 200 + 80 + 100 + 120 + 140 + 160 + 180 HOME PRICES IN THE USA In 2005, the Nobel Prize Winner Robert Shiller foresaw and demonstrated the evolution of real estate prices in USA ’
  • 10. HOW ABOUT BRAZIL? Necessity to create an index of historical pricing High volatility in the political and economic environments Historical data is rare
  • 11. Who is ZAP? Who is Fipe? FipeZAP partnership: products and indexes Repercussions in the media Brazil: numbers, historical facts and real estate market
  • 12. Largest economy in South America and Latin American region (40% share) USD 11.38k in 2014 GDP per capita: GDP: USD 2.39 trillion in 2014 Population: 205 million 2nd largest economy in the Western Hemisphere Size 3,286,488 square miles World’s 7th largest economy Total homes 50 million BRAZIL IN NUMBERS
  • 13. 1964 Beginning of the military dictatorship Until 1964 Market totally deregulated 1967 New Currency: Cruzeiro 1964 Establishment of the Housing Finance System 1970 New Currency: Cruzeiro Novo 1966 Creation of the National Housing Bank 1964 1970MAIN FACTS IN BRAZIL Dictatorship Regime IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET Time for structuring
  • 14. 1975 Expansion of the middle class + Consumption = inflation Low resources for the real estate financing 1976 Impact of the International oil crisis 1971 1976MAIN FACTS IN BRAZIL Economic Growth IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET Housing Shortage Accumulated Units(Total) 6.000.000 5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 0 1970 1974 19781972 1976 1980 Evolution of the number of financed homes (Units)
  • 15. 1980 Accumulated inflation (110% a.a in 1980) Banks restrict new credits 1977 1982MAIN FACTS IN BRAZIL End of the economic miracle IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET Delinquency as high as a skyscraper GPD Evolution 1950 to 1987 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1 -1 -3 -5 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 Economic Miracle “Lost Decade” Real Estate Developers take on the role of financiers
  • 16. 1984 Social movement wanting democracy Big unemployment rate 1983 1990MAIN FACTS IN BRAZIL End of the dictatorship IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET Delinquency still growing Stratospheric delinquency Delinquency SFH rate evolution compared to total financings (1980 – 1984) 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% 60,0% 40,0% 30,0% 50,0% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 54,6% Total 1985 GDP growth reaches 7.8% 1986 New president and new currency: Cruzado 1989 New currency: Cruzado Novo Accumulated inflation: 1.035% 1990 The first president elected by the brazilians New loan offers slowed down
  • 17. 1992 President Collor was impeached Blockage of financial assets and 60% of savings accounts 1994 New currency: Real The most successful economic plan until nowadays The lowest amount of financed houses since 1965 End of high inflation 4th World Soccer Cup Title 1991 1995MAIN FACTS IN BRAZIL A new chance for Brazil IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET Stagnation
  • 18. 1996 Monitary Policy Committee was established 1997 Establishment of the Real Estate Financing System 1999 Implementation of inflation targeting in 1999 by Brazilian Central Bank 2000 300 times more houses financed compared to 1994 1996 2000MAIN FACTS IN BRAZIL Inflation under control IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET New housing policy
  • 19. 2002 Record growth of formal jobs Launched the largest income distribution program: Bolsa Família 2001 2005MAIN FACTS IN BRAZIL Rise of the family consumption IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET A new era in real estate financing 2001 IPO of the 14 main construction companies 2002 45.6 thousand units launched in the city of São Paulo - historical peak for launch and sale Reduction of interest rates Increase in financing terms and percentages New classified portals on the market
  • 20. 2007 Brazilian GDP grows 6% yoy, best performance since 1986 2006 2011MAIN FACTS IN BRAZIL Brazil takes off IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET Real estate boom 2007 Creation of ZAP portal 2009 Minha Casa Minha Vida: the largest federal housing program for low income families 2010 Economy grows 7,5% 2010 Number of financed houses doubled 2011 Launch of FipeZAP index
  • 21. 2012 Economy has a weak performance Only 0,9% growth 2012 2015MAIN FACTS IN BRAZIL Fall, recession and pessimism IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET Cooling off period Decline of home prices Increase in interest rate in leases Record number of cancellations up to 41% over total sales of new homes Huge offer of new properties Construction companies deep in debt 2014 Dilma Rousseff is reelected president 2015 Decrease of loan-to-value for pre-owned property financing from 80% to 50% 2015 GDP estimated by The International Monetary Fund: recession of -3,8%
  • 22. Who is ZAP? Who is Fipe? Brazil: numbers, historical facts and real estate market Repercussions in the media FipeZAP partnership: products and indexes
  • 23. - 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 Jun-65 Jun-66 Jun-67 Jun-68 Jun-69 Jun-70 Jun-71 Jun-72 Jun-73 Jun-74 Jun-75 Jun-76 Jun-77 Jun-78 Jun-79 Jun-80 Jun-81 Jun-82 Jun-83 Jun-84 Jun-85 Jun-86 Jun-87 Jun-88 Jun-89 Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 BRL USD Total formal income FIPEZAP MAIN HOME PRICE INDEX FOR BRAZILIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET Both movements seem to have been triggered by changes in regulation, which increased credit supply Recent boom (and decline in prices) was accompanied by a sharp growth in total income Prices in USD are at the same level as the late 1970’s The 2005-2014 boom was similar to the 1965- 1979:In the 1960’s & 1970’s boom prices were up by 108% (real terms); in 2000’s the increase was 166%
  • 24. 80.60% 64.50% 64.30% 62.10% 59.90% 43.80% 35.20% 23.20% 22.00% 18.90% 14.50% 9.80% 9.70% 7.00% 3.80% 1.50% UK - 2013 Canada - 2011 Portugal 2013 USA - 2013 Spain - 2013 France - 2013 Germany - 2013 Italy - 2013 South Africa - 2013 Chile - 2012 China - 2012 Mexico - 2013 Brazil - 2014-11 India - 2011 Russia - 2013 Argentina - 2012 (%) Mortgage Loans as of GDP Source: Abecip Growth of real estate prices in Brazil was very fast for international standards The current economic scenario and the enormous volatility seen over the last 30 years create additional short-term risks Over the long term, there doesn’t seem to be any abnormal behavior Potential for development and expansion of real estate credit LESSONS LEARNED
  • 25. PARTNERSHIP FIPEZAP TWO FORCES COMBINED TO PROVIDE KNOWLEDGE Calculated based on property ads published on ZAP portal Average price per m² of ready to move properties in 20 Brazilian cities First indicator with a national scope that monitors home prices for sale and rental in Brazil Real estate market statistics by area and type of property WITH FIPE
  • 27. FIPEZAP INDEXES FOR S ALE AND R E NTAL Main indexes of the real estate market that monitor the evolution of home prices for sale and rental
  • 28. X-RAY RESEARCH SURVEY WITH OVER 2.000 RESPONDENTS SEEKS TO IDENTIFY Buyer profile Purchase objectives Discounts praticed Price expectation
  • 29. B U Y O R R E NT CALCULATOR Widget that allows users to compare purchasing options from their economic/finance point of view
  • 30. FIPEZAP BULLETIN Quarterly publication with an economic analysis focused on the real estate market outlook It addresses macroeconomic topics, indicators and sector specific perspectives
  • 31. FIPEZAP Annual event that gathers the main leaders of the brazilian real estate market Economic analysis Market trends PANEL
  • 32. Who is ZAP? Who is Fipe? Brazil: numbers, historical facts and real estate market FipeZAP partnership: products and indexes Repercussions in the media
  • 33. FIPEZAP MEDIA IMPACT Renamed national and international institutions rely on FipeZap information
  • 34. MEDIA E XPO S U R E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kc7eD_Grym0&feature=youtu.be
  • 35. TWO UNITED FORCES FORM A POWER THAT IS THE BEST DEFINITION FOR FIPEZAP
  • 38. BUILDING REAL ESTATE MARKET INDEXES FOR THE BRAZILIAN MARKET