1. Impact of current policies on
future air quality and health
outcomes in Delhi, India
Hem Dholakiaa, Pallav Purohitb,
Shilpa Raob and Amit Garga
aIndian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad, India
bInternational Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
European Geosciences Union
General Assembly 2013
Vienna | Austria | 08 April 2013

2. Introduction
• Curbing high PM2.5 concentrations and associated
health impacts – key challenge in Indian cities
– 27 of top 100 most polluted cities are in India (WHO,
2011)
– About 627,000 annual deaths due to outdoor air
pollution in India (Lim et al. 2012)
• National capital region of Delhi – among most
polluted megacities
– We evaluate the current policy portfolio and compare
against alternative policy scenarios

3. PM-2.5 concentrations in select Indian cities
200
180
160
140
µg/m3
191.0
120
100
80 115.3
83.8
60
NAAQS
40 48.3 40.6
30.7
20 WHO
0
Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Chennai Pune Kanpur
Source: CPCB (2010)

4. Research Questions
• Are current city level polices in Delhi adequate to
achieve the National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS) in the future?
• What are the future health impacts of these policies
in Delhi?
• Can implementing advanced control technologies
or 450 scenario help achieve NAAQS? What are
the health benefits accrued thereof?

5. Methods
• We adopted the IEA/WEO (2011) energy scenario for India
– GDP growth at 6.4% from 2008 to 2035
– Population (1.1 to 1.5 billion in 2035)
– Coal contributes 53% of primary energy in India
• Emissions and future concentrations of fine particulate matter were estimated
using the GAINS model
• All-cause mortality using the population attributable fraction (PAF) approach
– Risk rate of 1.06 used with sensitivity analyses for alternate rates (low = 1.02
& high =1.11) from Pope et al. (2002)
– Relation between dosage and health response assumed to be linear at high
concentrations
– Theoretical minimum exposure of PM-2.5 -10 µg/m3

6. Greenhouse gases and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS):
A model to harvest synergies by integrating multiple pollutants and their multiple effects
Emissions and control measures
Emissions and control measures
for air pollutants and greenhouse gases
for air pollutants
PM HFCs
PM
BC SO2 NO VOC NH CO2 CH4 N2O PFCs
BC SO2 NOx x VOC NH3 3
OC SF6
OC
Health impacts:
Health impacts:
from fromparticulate matter
fine fine particulate matter ( )
from from ground-level ozone
ground-level ozone ( )
Vegetation damage:
Vegetation damage:
Ozone (agricultural crops) ( )
Impacts
Ozone (agricultural crops)
Impacts
Acidification (forests, water)
Acidification (forests, water)
Eutrophication (biodiversity)
Eutrophication (biodiversity)
Radiative forcing:
- from direct greenhouse gases
- via aerosols and ozone ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

7. GAINS India:
23 regions
Delhi
16 m
2.4 m
0.6 m
1.5 m
1.4 m

8. Policy scenarios
Sector City specific policies Advanced Control 450 Scenario* Reference
technologies*
Transport Stage II control measures in buses Stage III controls in Higher reliance on clean MoPNG
and trucks buses and trucks fuels bringing down PM2.5 (2003)
Stage II control measures in two and Stage III controls in two emissions by 20% in 2030
three wheelers and three wheelers
Introduction of Euro IV standards in Introduction of Euro V
Indian megacities from 2010 and Euro VI standards
from 2015
Shifting of public transport buses Same as city specific Bell et al.
from diesel to CNG in Delhi policies (2004)
Power plants Shift of all power plants from coal to Same as city specific High reliance on gas based CPCB
natural gas policies power plants and (2010);
Use of High efficiency ESP Use of High efficiency de- renewables bringing down SoE-Delhi
technology in large coal based power dusters in coal based PM2.5 emissions by 60% in (2010)
plants (where applicable) power plants where 2030
applicable
Industry Closing down/ moving highly polluting Same as city specific No significant change in CPCB
industries outside city limits policies industrial PM2.5 emissions (2010)
Waste Ban on open residential burning of Same as city specific No significant change in MoEF
garbage and plastics policies waste sector PM2.5 (2010)

9. PM-2.5 emissions by aggregated sector for Delhi
20
18
16
14
kt PM 2.5 emissions
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
CSP 450 ACT CSP 450 ACT
2010 2020 2030
Power generation Domestic Industry Transport Agriculture Other

10. Estimated PM-2.5 concentrations for Delhi
under different scenarios
120
2010 Baseline
100 Δ 13%
Δ 18%
Δ 25%
Δ 27%
80
µg/m3
60
Δ 63% Δ 61%
40 NAAQS
20
WHO
0
2020 2030
CSP ACT 450 Scenario

11. Estimates of all – cause mortality in population >30 years
in 2030 attributable to outdoor air pollution in Delhi
35000
30000
25000
Number of deaths
20000
Low
Central
15000
High
10000
5000
0
CSP ACT 450 Scenario

12. Policy insights
• Current policy legislation in Indian cities of Delhi will not
bring particulate matter concentrations down to National
Ambient Air Quality Standards by 2030
• Application of advanced control technologies currently
available in the market could substantially reduce air
pollution impacts in Delhi
– Substantial economic resources may be required
• Contribution of trans-boundary air pollution in Delhi may
not be insignificant and needs stringent policy control
measures

13. Suggested policy portfolio
Sector Policies Measures Implementation strategies Key institutions*
Power sector Efficiency improvements Emission targets, emission Smart grid connections; reduced MoEF, CERC, EM
standards distribution losses; strict control on C
diesel generator sets
Fuel switch Taxation mechanisms Technology transfer; Infrastructure MoEF, MNRE
development for renewable energy
Transport Efficiency improvements Emission standards Leapfrog to Euro VI standards MoPNG,
Technology push Subsidy mechanisms Penetration of electric & hybrid vehicles MoEF
Process improvements Awareness, education Traffic light synchronization, road dust MoRTH
management systems, improved public
transport
Industry Process improvements & Standards, tax, awareness Strict monitoring and correction; Regulatory
recycling adoption of vertical shaft brick kilns bodies, industry
Raw material improvements & Industry standards Industry leadership, supply chain associations
switch management
Trans- Efficiency & Process Emission targets, emission Enhancing metro connectivity, ban on MoEF, Delhi,
boundary improvements standards, awareness open combustion and burning of crop Haryana & Uttar
effects residue Pradesh state
governments

14. Thank you
(purohit@iiasa.ac.at)

15. Component wise break-up of PM2.5 concentrations
in Delhi (µg/m3) in 2010
Urban adjustment Constant k
3.2% 5.1%
Sea salt
Dust 1.1%
8.9%
Secondary PM2.5
32.1%
Primary PM2.5
49.5%