Richard Heinberg's presentation to Ecobuild 2011, London UK

2. the economic crisis changes everything after crisis before crisis

3. some perspective:how we got here

4. 99.9% of our history = renewable energy

5. winning the energy lottery

6. Horsepower in the US economy horsepower in the US economy

8. world GDP per capita, 1-2000 CE

10. world population

11. Meanwhile, we were developing economic institutions and theories

12. With continual growth in energy, population, and consumption, it was assumed that economic growth could continue forever

13. With compound interest, fractional reserve banking, and debt leverage, growth became necessary to the monetary health of nations

14. all money loaned into existence

15. perpetual growth a requirement

16. tomorrow’s growth is collateral

18. The Limits to Growth

19. the hydrocarbon age 1500 CE 2000 2500

20. End of Growth: factors internal to the financial-monetary system

21. manufacturing employment as % of total employment

22. real wages declining since 1973

23. US household debt & debt payments as % of disposable income

24. financialization

25. US total debt, 1979-2010 Trillions

26. inverted pyramid of debt derivatives mortgage-backed securities subprime, no-doc loans house prices

27. US home price index, 1970-2010

28. US foreclosure rate, 1970-2010 Percent

29. “The value of global financial assets . . . fell by more than $50 Trillionin 2008, equivalent to a yearof world GDP.” (Asian Development Bank)

30. visualizing money: $100

31. $10,000

32. $1 million

33. $100 million

34. $1 billion

35. $1 trillion

36. post-WWII recessions, job losses

37. cost of the Wall St. bailout

38. no stimulus, no growth Billions Trillions

39. End of Growth: factors external to the monetary-financial system

40. Marion King Hubbert Geophysicist at Shell lab in Houston, taught at MIT, UCLA Forecast peak year of US oil production

41. Hubbert’s Peak

42. US oil production & discoveries Production Mb Discovery Mb

43. world oil discoveries

44. world crude oil production Million barrels/day

47. the oil price trap Oil price needed for development of new oil production capacity: $70 Oil price likely to trigger economic recession: $100

48. past recessions & oil spikes

49. Peak Oil means the end of cheap air travel peak oil means the end of affordable air travel

50. does peak oil mean peak food?

51. food & oil prices, 2000-2010 Dollars/barrel UN FAO Food Index

52. evaluating energy options Energy return on investment

53. net energy

54. evaluating energy options Energy return on investment Size of resource

55. evaluating energy options Energy return on investment Size of resource Infrastructure requirement

56. evaluating energy options Energy return on investment Size of resource Infrastructure requirement Convenience of use

57. evaluating energy options Energy return on investment Size of resource Infrastructure requirement Convenience of use Environmental impact

58. evaluating energy options Energy return on investment Size of resource Infrastructure requirement Convenience of use Environmental impact Renewability

59. evaluating energy options Energy return on investment Size of resource Infrastructure requirement Convenience of use Environmental impact Renewability Scalability

60. evaluating energy options Energy return on investment Size of resource Infrastructure requirement Convenience of use Environmental impact Renewability Scalability Location of resource

61. There is no credible scenario in which alternative energy sources can make up for fossil fuels once declines begin.

62. depleting materials Antimony China Thermoelectric/paraelectric materials Barium China Thermoelectric/paraelectric materials Bismuth China, Mexico Thermoelectric/paraelectric materials Cobalt Kinshasa, Australia Photovoltaics GalliumChina Photovoltaics Germanium Belgium, Canada Photovoltaics Indium China, Canada Photovoltaics, thermo/paraelectric mat’ls Manganese Gabon, S. Africa Photovoltaics Nickel Canada Fuel cells Platinum S. Africa Fuel cells, para/thermoelectric materials Rare Earths China Fuel cells, para/thermoelectric materials Tellurium Belgium, Germany Solar cells, semiconductors Titanium Australia, S. Africa Solar cells Zinc Canada, Mexico Photovoltaics, fuel cells

63. 30% of amphibians, 21% of mammals, 12% of birds face extinction

64. We’re performing a giant science experiment with the Earth’s atmosphere

65. but, but . . . what about . . . China?

66. but, but . . . what about . . . China? efficiency?

67. but, but . . . what about . . . China? efficiency? substitution?

68. but, but . . . what about . . . China? efficiency? substitution? innovation?

69. but, but . . . what about . . . China? efficiency? substitution? innovation? division of labor?

70. but, but . . . what about . . . China? efficiency? substitution? innovation? division of labor? globalization?

71. facing the wall

73. When growth ceases, growth-based economies enter survival crisis mode

74. “We’re in the midst of a once-in-a-lifetime set of economic conditions. The perspective I would bring is not one of recession. (Steve Ballmer Chairman, Microsoft)

75. Rather, the economy is resetting to a lower level of business and consumer spending based largely on the reduced leverage in the economy.” (Steve Ballmer Chairman, Microsoft)

76. what to expect Unemployment Homelessness Bank failures Hunger Crime Political instability International conflict

77. what to do?

78. money reform Non-debt based

79. money reform Non-debt based Direct credit clearing

80. money reform Non-debt based Direct credit clearing Unit of account?

81. money reform Non-debt based Direct credit clearing Unit of account? Nested systems

82. community currencies Crucial in times of monetary crisis Over 2500 local currencies in countries around the world

83. free money or haircuts for all?

84. beyond the wall

85. The sustainability revolution will be driven by crisis

86. reforming economics The economy is a subset of the environment

87. reforming economics The economy is a subset of the environment growth in population and consumption levels is not sustainable

88. reforming economics The economy is a subset of the environment growth in population and consumption levels is not sustainable Renewable resources must be harvested at less than the rate of natural replenishment

89. reforming economics The economy is a subset of the environment growth in population and consumption levels is not sustainable Renewable resources must be harvested at less than the rate of natural replenishment Non-renewable resources must be recycled, use must decline

90. reforming economics The economy is a subset of the environment growth in population and consumption levels is not sustainable Renewable resources must be harvested at less than the rate of natural replenishment Non-renewable resources must be recycled, use must decline Wastes must be food

91. ecological economics Cap-and-dividend system for extraction rights for basic natural resources

92. ecological economics Cap-and-dividend system for extraction rights for basic natural resources Shift from taxing income toward taxing resource depletion and environmental pollutants

93. ecological economics Cap-and-dividend system for extraction rights for basic natural resources Shift from taxing income toward taxing resource depletion and environmental pollutants Limits on income inequality

94. ecological economics Cap-and-dividend system for extraction rights for basic natural resources Shift from taxing income toward taxing resource depletion and environmental pollutants Limits on income inequality Tariffs to allow countries with sustainable policies to remain competitive with countries without them

95. ecological economics Reduce externalities

96. ecological economics Reduce externalities Tax financial transactions

97. ecological economics Reduce externalities Tax on financial transactions Corporations vs. co-ops

98. ecological economics Reduce externalities Tax on financial transactions Corporations vs. co-ops Indicators that make sense

99. reduce fossil fuels & develop renewables

100. food systems, transport systems, efficient buildings, and more Building resilient communities

101. Only a crisis—actual or perceived—produces real change. When the crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend upon the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable.—Milton Friedman

102. meanwhile, time to prepare

103. resilience: the ability to absorb shocks and continue to function Resilience

104. Transition Towns A bottom-up community organizing model that puts together all of these strategies and more “Life can be better without fossil fuels…”

105. emphasize what’s not at peak Community Satisfaction from honest work well done Intergenerational solidarity Cooperation Free time Happiness Artistry Beauty of the built environment

106. great transitions Fire

107. great transitions Fire Language

108. great transitions Fire Language Agriculture

109. great transitions Fire Language Agriculture Industrial (fossil fuel) revolution

110. great transitions Fire Language Agriculture Industrialism Sustainability

111. crisis = opportunity This is the biggest opportunity of our lifetimes. Who will seize it?

112. Imagine life after growth, a world without fossil fuels,the best case scenario

113. Imagine life after growth, a world without fossil fuels,the best case scenario now imagine a path from here to there, and start to build it

114. www.postcarbon.org

115. Community Economic Laboratories One-stop shop, central location Car-share, ride-share Food co-op Credit union Job center Free clinic Etc.