2. ANTHROPOLOGY
the study of human beings, study of their physical
character, evolutionary history, racial classification,
historical and present day geographic distribution, group
relationships, and cultural history
3. GEOGRAPHY
the study of the location and distribution of living things
and the physical environment in which they live
4. SOCIOLOGY
the study of social customs, structures and institutions
and of the effects on individuals of participation in groups
and organisations
5. PSYCHOLOGY
the study of mental processes and behaviour through the
observation and recording of how people relate to one
another and the environment
6. POLITICAL SCIENCE
the study of the functions performed by governments as
well as patterns in the behaviour of voters, political
parties, pressure groups etc
7. ECONOMICS
the study of the process through which people make a
living, the production and distribution of goods, the
organization of industries, banking, trade, and the use of
resources
8. Related to Human Sciences
Linguistics
Criminology
International relations
Business and
management studies
Religious studies
Archaeology
History
9. Some aims of Human Sciences
Knowledge about human behaviour and interaction in
society
Understanding of influences on human behaviour
Explain underlying patterns
Understanding how decisions are made
Predicting human behaviour
Informing decisions
10. Particularity of human sciences
Man is the subject and the student
Compare Martian as student
The car
engines
malfunction
when the
lights go
red!
Wir verstehen!
11. Claims about Human and Social Sciences
Human sciences permeated with values
Concepts in social sciences are vague and
imprecise
Unavoidable interaction between the scientist and
what he studies
Human scientist cannot state and verify hypotheses
with precision and universality
No social scientist can predict with any assurance
12. METHODOGLOGY
Questionnaires and surveys
Interviews
Observation
Gathering and interpretation of statistics
Study of written sources (official records, books …)
Study of artefacts
Experiments
13. Issues in observation
Surveys
Scope and scale
Sample size and choice
Question(er) bias / loaded questions
Quality of answers
15. Issues in Experimentation
People as the subject / Interaction
between scientist and subject
Behaviour of people being observed
Margaret Mead Case (the observed
respond to the expectations of the
observer)
Hawthorne Effect (presence of
observers produces a bias and
unduly affects the outcome of the
experiment)
17. Issues in Experimentation
Ethical Problems
Milgram experiment
Zimbardo experiment at Stanford University
18. Measurement and interpretation
Can everything be measured satisfactorily?
Thought in a child?
Happiness?
Economic data?
The use of numbers and data
Statistics
Models
Isaac Newton:
“I can
calculate the
motions of
heavenly
bodies, but not
the madness
of crowds”
19. The Model 1 - The Credit Crunch
"It was the failure to properly price …. risky assets that
precipitated the crisis. In recent decades, a vast risk management
and pricing system has evolved, combining the best insights of
mathematicians and finance experts supported by major advances in
computer and communications technology. A Nobel Prize was
awarded for the discovery of the pricing model that underpins much
of the advance in derivatives markets. This modern risk management
paradigm held sway for decades. The whole intellectual edifice,
however, collapsed in the summer of last year because the data
inputted into the risk management models generally covered
only the past two decades, a period of euphoria.“
Dr. Alan Greenspan, US House of Representatives Committee on Government Oversight and Reform, October 23,
2008
20. Measurement and interpretation
Correlation v. Causation
The Phillips curve
When in the 1970s this failed to explain stagflation, Milton Friedman
argued that there were a series of different Phillips curves for each
level of expected inflation. If people expected inflation to occur, then
they would anticipate and expect a correspondingly higher wage
rise.
21. Correlation v. Causation
Facebook users have lower overall grades than non-
users, according to a survey of college students
Students who supplement their studies with
interactive, game like computer animations retain a
much better understanding of a scientific concept
than those who don't.
Men with deep voices tend to have more children
than those who speak at a higher pitch, scientists
say.
22. Causation and social policy
Tony Blair: 'tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime'
Feeding children a diet rich in fish could prevent violent
and anti-social behaviour in their teens, according to
research ….. which suggests the root causes of crime
may be biological rather than social. The study raises
major questions over the extent to which criminals
exercise free will, as well as fuelling fresh debate over
whether simple childhood interventions might be more
use in preventing crime than blaming parents or
organising draconian crackdowns on crime.
The Observer, Sunday 14 September 2003
23. Free Will - C’est écrit là-haut!
How did they meet? By chance, like everyone else.
What were they called? What does that matter to
you? Where were they coming from? From the
nearest place. Where were they going? Who knows
where they were going? What were they saying?
The master was silent and Jacques was saying that
his captain in the army used say that all the good
and bad that happens to us down here on earth was
already written up there.
24. Oedipus
He knew (because of a prophecy)
theat he would kill his father and
marry his mother
To what extent did his knowledge of
the prophecy affect his behaviour
and choices?
Why does he punish himself?
Why does he blind himself as a
punishment?
25. The Oedipus effect.
“ …… the oracle played a most important role in the
sequence of events which led to the fulfilment of its
prophecy. … For a time I thought that the existence of the
Oedipus effect distinguished the social from the natural
sciences. But in biology, too—even in molecular
biology—expectations often play a role in bringing about
what has been expected. ”
Karl Popper
26. Self fulfilling prophecy - psychology.
A person who expects people to be friendly, may smile
more and thus receive more smiles
A person expecting to be lucky, may enter many more
competitions and thus increase their chances of winning.
Children randomly allocated to a group labelled ‘bright’
did better in an experiment than a similar group labelled
‘less bright’
BUT you may also do your utmost to ensure a prediction
made by a psychologist does not happen!
27. Self fulfilling prophecy - Economics
Told that a bank was in trouble, people rushed to take out
their money thereby causing the bank to fail.
Bear and Bull markets – expectations of market rises and
falls tend to make them rise or fall.
Predictions of depression make people behave in a way
which (at least) hastens it
28. Placebo and Nocebo
A patient given a pill expects it to make him better
(placebo) and often does
In a classic nocebo experiment conducted in the early
1980s volunteers were told that a mild electrical current
would pass through their head, and although no electrical
current was used, two-thirds of the volunteers
complained of a headache after the experiment.
29. The Purposes of Human Sciences
Understanding of how people and societies work
To make people or societies work better (or how we think
they should work)
Involve predictions on the basis of which we make
Personal choices
Economic and social policy
Business and management decisions
30. BUT are Human Sciences able to produce
reliable Laws?
31. … some of the reasons
Confirmation bias
Question(er) bias
Difficulties in measurement
Observation of people may affect their behaviour
32. .. and more reasons?
Problem of (no) controlled experiments
Human sciences often affected by moral issues
Limitations on willingness or ability to experiment
Human science suggests the ‘probable’
Uncomfortable with falsification
Hinweis der Redaktion
The Phillips Curve showed a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. However, the problem that emerged with it in the 1970s was its total inability to explain unemployment and inflation going up together - stagflation. According to the Phillips curve they weren't supposed to do that, but throughout the 1970s they did. Friedman then put his mind to whether this could be adapted to show why stagflation was occurring, and the explanation he came up with was to include the role of expectations in the Phillips Curve - hence the name 'expectations-augmented'. Once again the supreme logic of economics comes to the fore!Friedman argued that there were a series of different Phillips curves for each level of expected inflation. If people expected inflation to occur then they would anticipate and expect a correspondingly higher wage rise. Friedman was therefore assuming no 'money illusion'- people would anticipate inflation and account for it. (Bized)