A guide to the key dynamics of the mobile ecosystem today and in the next 3 years. Opportunities across the ecosystem plus the strategic importance of developers, platforms and software DNA.

1. 1
Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics - CTO Briefing
Paul Golding
May 2011
http://wirelesswanders.com Copyright Paul Golding, 2011
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

2. Why listen to this guy? 2
Paul G
Key numbers: Key roles:
21 years in mobile ecosystems Mobile Product Strategy
16 patents (mobile chip design) Developer/Product Owner
4 books Chief Apps Architect Motorola
1st mobile apps co. in Europe Advisor to corps €10k - €10B
1st mobile internet portal Founded the O2 UK Incubator
1st push email solution Mentor at Springboard Incubator
connFu* Master at O2
Most importantly: I’ve worked with many companies, big and small,
on mobile product strategies. I at least know the right questions :)
*connFu is a cloud-telephony platform
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

3. Written a few books... 3
Innovation
is for
Everyone
31 innovation
habits
August Sept
2011 2011
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

4. Which future? 4
$
Navigating the
mobile ecosystem...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

5. Which future? 4
$
Navigating the
mobile ecosystem...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

6. Centres of gravity in the mobile landscape... 5
Facebook
Smartphones Experience Google Handset
Apple
Embedded Ecosystems Embedded
Tablets
Post PC epoch Sensor
Proliferation
PaaS
Abundant Cloud SaaS
Access inc. M2M Computing IaaS
LTE
BT LP
“Right-time” App
Real-time web Economy App store
& meta-data Software
Digital service providers need to navigate this landscape
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

7. Centres of gravity in the mobile landscape... 5
Facebook
Smartphones Experience Google Handset
Apple
Embedded Ecosystems Embedded
Tablets
Post PC epoch Sensor
Proliferation
PaaS
Abundant Cloud SaaS
Access inc. M2M Computing IaaS
LTE
BT LP
“Right-time” App
Real-time web Economy App store
& meta-data Software
Digital service providers need to navigate this landscape
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

8. Device platform evolution... 6
2007
apps
Web
OS
comms
Closed
Telco OEM Internet
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

9. Device platform evolution... 6
2007 2011
apps apps
Web Web
OS OS
comms comms
Closed Open
Telco OEM Internet
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

10. Device platform evolution... 6
2007 2011 2014
apps apps Experience Platforms
Web Web apps
OS OS Web
comms comms OS
comms
Closed Open
Telco OEM Internet
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

11. Balance of influence tipping towards developers... 7
Experience Platforms
apps
Web
OS
comms
Telco OEM Internet Developers
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

12. Balance of influence tipping towards developers... 7
Experience Platforms
apps
Web
OS
comms
Telco
OEM
Internet
Developer
s
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

13. Mobile experience is moving towards apps... 8
App experience...
Telco
Apps
Souce: Zokem-CINT - http://bit.ly/dLIQzQ
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

14. Mobile experience is moving towards apps... 8
App experience...
Telco
Apps
Souce: Zokem-CINT - http://bit.ly/dLIQzQ
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

15. Digital experience economy... 9
User Experience
(apps) $$$
Software/Device Ecosystems
e.g. iOS, Android, Web... $$$$$
Network Infrastructure
e.g. LTE, 3G, WiFi, ADSL, Cable... $$$$$$$
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

16. Digital experience influence... 10
User Experience (apps)
Software/Device
Network Infrastructure
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

17. But app stores and experience platforms exert control 11
Experience Platforms
}
apps
Web
OS
comms
Developers Internet Ecosystems
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

18. But app stores and experience platforms exert control 11
Experience Platforms
}
apps
Web
OS
comms
Developers Internet Ecosystems
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

19. Mobile software stack top to bottom... 12
“Right-time” Post PC
Computers Devices
Social Media Gaming Money Health SME/Corp Family
“Experience Platforms”
HTML5 Android iOS ?
Mobile Services “Stack”
SaaS PaaS
“The Web Operating System”
Frameworks “Social Stack” Identity/oAuth LAMP/R stack
IaaS CaaS NaaS
BIG DATA “Cloud Platforms” Telco
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

20. The dominance of experience ecosystems... 13
“Our competitors aren’t taking our market
share with devices; they are taking our
market share with an entire ecosystem.”
Steven Elop, CEO, Nokia
Social Media Gaming Money Health SME/Corp Family
“Experience Platforms”
Strategic battlefront: ecosystems
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

21. Platform economics (N-sided)... 14
OEMS
Users
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

22. Platform economics (N-sided)... 14
Developers
OEMS
Users
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

23. Platform economics (N-sided)... 14
Developers
OEMS
Users
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

24. Platform economics (N-sided)... 14
Developers
OEMS
Operators
Users
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

25. Platform economics (N-sided)... 14
Google mobile search 15%
Google mobile ad revenue: 1.5%
Advertisers
Developers
OEMS
Operators
tip: read Spolsky,
Hagiu, Eisenmann,
Users
VisionMobile
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

26. From hobby to fully blown enterprise... 15
Apps are now about product, not code...
Develop
Product
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

27. From hobby to fully blown enterprise... 15
Apps are now about product, not code...
Analytics, Heyzap
retailing, chomp
Lean start-up Mobile Mobile marketing, flurry
CustDev Web Web support, allify
Planning PaaS/SaaS Tools/X-Dev CRM... Social media
Conceive Choose Develop Deliver Engage
Product Platforms Product Product Market
tip: BIG opportunity in the applications ecosystem itself
tip: follow Ahonen, Asymco, VisionMobile, Nielsen blog,
other devs...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

28. Key platform decisions... 16
Which tech platform should I use?
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

29. Which platforms are developers paying attention to? 17
Penetration (100M+) Penetration (120M+) Web-dev friendly!
Easy learning curve Monetization! Mass consumption
Consistent UX Smartphone browsers
A lighthouse platform for A lighthouse platform for Emerging lighthouse for
devs (experimental) brands/agencies multiscreen development
Weak business app genre Strong entertainment/ Increasing support from
business app genres CMS tools (e.g. Wordpress)
Fragmentation worries Not an “open” OS Limited APIs and
(no OEM update Not “all apps are equal” implementation
incentives) NOT an ecosystem!
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

30. App store monetization... 18
Free Paid
Free Paid
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

31. Tools are getting richer and better... 19
Corona from Ansca Mobile Titanium from Appcelerator Phonegap
Lua language (“code less”) HTML/CSS/JS HTML + CSS + JavaScript
Strong gaming platform Mobile/desktop Open
Exploits OpenGL Annual fee Developer focussed
2D physics engine
Annual fee
Caveats:
Most solutions “favour”
a reference platform
HTML5 framework for Touch Ruby framework
Pay for support Enterprise focus (sync) Success very use-case
dependent
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

32. Mobile web getting better... 20
<canvas> <video> Local storage
Built-in Graphics Canvas Without plug-ins (Flash) Key-value pairs
2D vector graphics Codec independent (IndexDB likely)
Games and rich UI Multimedia content Offline working
App cache Geo-location API
Cache pages/script etc. Accesses underlying APIs
Offline working Location-based apps
Web Workers Semantic Annotations <device>
Background processing “itemprop” API to hardware devices
Offloading long-running Add semantics to HTML Microphone/camera
tasks Semantic apps Richer interactive apps
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

33. We now carry two computers... 21
COMPUTER
#one
COMPUTER
#two
Inert
>1GHz
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

34. But it’s more than just a computer... 22
Sight
(Camera)
Touch
(NFC)
Motion
(Accelerometer)
Touch
(Temperature)
Direction
(Compass)
Sound
(Microphone)
Remote sensing
(Bluetooth)
A computer with senses...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

35. We can surf the real world... 23
AlphaPunk
office
N
W E
S
Popular view of “Augmented Reality”
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

36. And we can interact with the physical world... 24
Security Metering
Sight
(Camera)
Touch
(NFC)
Motion
(Accelerometer) Access
Touch
(Temperature)
Direction
(Compass)
Sound
(Microphone)
Remote sensing
Control (Bluetooth)
Real “Augmented Reality”
Money
Body
Cars
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

37. And we can interact with the physical world... 24
Security Metering
Sight
(Camera)
Touch
(NFC)
Motion
(Accelerometer) Access
Touch
(Temperature)
Direction
(Compass)
Sound
(Microphone)
Remote sensing
Control (Bluetooth)
Real “Augmented Reality”
Money
Body
Cars
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

38. There’s a URI for that... 25
http://paulg.stuff/car/245534462342
/vitals/heart...
/trainers/wear/..
Internet of /watch/temperature/..
“20 Billion devices by
Things /home/windows/..
2020” - GSMA
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

39. Suddenly everything can “talk”... 26
Source: PSFK - http://bit.ly/aES59A
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

40. Right-time Web 27
Real-time streams...
Social stream
Information stream
Entertainment stream
Event stream
Sensor stream
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

41. Mobile is centre stage of right-time Web... 28
Sight
The
(Camera)
Touch
(NFC)
Cloud
Motion
(Accelerometer)
Touch
(Temperature)
Direction
(Compass)
Sound
(Microphone)
Remote sensing
(Bluetooth)
Social stream
Information stream
Entertainment stream
Event stream
Sensor stream
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

42. Big Data is a major accomplice in the right-time revolution... 29
Key enabler: Big Data!
“Sensor real
time
real
time
real
time
Net”
storage processing output
Many challenges = opportunities
Distributed sensor grids
Creating value from unthinkably large amounts of data
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

43. M2M opportunities... 30
Opportunity: M2M ecosystems
Embedded SIM
$3-5 ARPUs
Wireless Asset tracking
Axeda Fleet management
Jasper Wireless Cloud Monitoring
Services
SensorLogic PaaS Security
Sierra Wireless M2M Telematics
ILS Technology Wireless POS
“Big Data” Platforms mHealth
Smart Grids
•No clear standardization Embedded Linux
•Ecosystems yet to emerge Android/Meego/...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

44. M2M opportunities... 30
Opportunity: M2M ecosystems
Embedded SIM
$3-5 ARPUs
Wireless Asset tracking
Axeda Fleet management
Jasper Wireless Cloud Monitoring
Services
SensorLogic PaaS Security
Sierra Wireless M2M Telematics
ILS Technology Wireless POS
“Big Data” Platforms mHealth
Smart Grids
•No clear standardization Embedded Linux
•Ecosystems yet to emerge Android/Meego/...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

45. Mobile ecosystem opportunities in the cloud... 31
Facebook
Apple?
gnip XaaS O2?
IMified New entrants!
SaaS chargify
apigee
Mobile flurry
allify
Nodester mSaaS
Duostack Cloud heyzap
New entrants!
PaaS Heroku
Force.com Opportunities connFu
dotcloud Tropo
mPaaS Corona/Appcelerator?
AWS New entrants!
IaaS Rightscale
Rackspace
Nimbula CaaS Skype/Jajah/Microsoft
BlueVia (Telefonica)
NaaS New entrants!
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

46. Mobile ecosystem opportunities in the cloud... 31
Facebook
Apple?
gnip XaaS O2?
IMified New entrants!
SaaS chargify
apigee
Mobile flurry
allify
Nodester mSaaS
Duostack Cloud heyzap
New entrants!
PaaS Heroku
Force.com Opportunities connFu
dotcloud Tropo
mPaaS Corona/Appcelerator?
AWS New entrants!
IaaS Rightscale
Rackspace
Nimbula CaaS Skype/Jajah/Microsoft
BlueVia (Telefonica)
NaaS New entrants!
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

47. The innovation advantage... 32
Software DNA
Increasingly, the dialogue with
customers is via software (apps)
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

48. Where are we headed? 33
The not-so-distant future...
100 GHz
100 Mbps
100 TB
100 Sensors
Just imagine the possibilities...
Wednesday, 25 May 2011

49. 34
Thank You
paul@wirelesswanders.com
wirelesswanders.com
@pgolding
(C) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010
Wednesday, 25 May 2011