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Private Equity Final Presentation
Friday, March 23, 2012


Yiu Lau, Daniel Möllerhenn, Ram Peri, Xin Yu
Agenda



    Introduction and Overview
    Industry Analysis
    Business Model and Revenue Streams
    Investment Thesis
    Valuation and Transaction Dynamics
    Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps
    Conclusion
Company Overview
                              Company Overview                                                                       Stock Performance (NYSE Ticker: DV)
       DeVry is a for-profit higher education organization
       Founded in 1931, named DeVry University in 2002
       Enrollment of 80,000+ undergrad and grad students
       200,000+ graduates in the last 25 years
       90+ campuses throughout US, Canada, Brazil
       Headquarters: Downers Grove, IL
       Market cap: $2.3B
       Revenue 2011: $2.2B - CAGR 2008-2011: 26%
       EBITDA 2011: $491M
       CFFO 2011: $408M - CAGR 2008-2011: 27%
       Debt 2011: $0

               Three Major Business Segments                                                                                      Financial Highlights
       Business, Management and Technology                                                                                                    % of       Op    Op
                                                                                                             Segment                 Revenue
         – DeVry University, Keller Graduate School of                                                                                         Total    Income Margin
           Management, Carrington College                                                                    Business, Tech,
         – Highest operating margin, biggest segment                                                                                  14.60    19.73%    359    25%
                                                                                                             Management
       Healthcare and Nursing                                                                               Medical/
         – Ross University, Chamberlain College of Nursing,                                                                            5.58    7.54%     107    19%
                                                                                                             Healthcare
           American University, Carrington College
         – High growth in demand for nurses                                                                  Professional,
                                                                                                                                       1.64    22.2%      33    20%
                                                                                                             K12, International
       Professional Training and K12
         – Becker Professional Educator, Advanced Academics                                                  Totals (FY11)            21.82    29.49%    499    23%

Source: FactSet Data, Company Data, http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media-relations/fact-sheets/nursing-shortage, DeVry Inc, 2011 10-K

                                                                                                                                                                  3
Agenda



    Introduction and Overview
    Industry Analysis
    Business Model and Revenue Streams
    Investment Thesis
    Valuation and Transaction Dynamics
    Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps
    Conclusion
Industry Analysis
                                              Recent Revenue Development (in $M)




                          Recent Revenue Growth                      Market Share by Revenue in 2011
Revenue Growth Rates                   2008     2009   2010   2011
DeVry Inc                              17%      34%    31%    14%
Apollo Group                           15%      26%    25%    -4%
Education Management                   24%      19%    25%    15%
Career Education                        -1%     11%    16%    -10%
Corinthian Colleges                    17%      23%    35%     6%
ITT Educational Services               17%      30%    21%    -6%
Bridgepoint Education                  156%     108%   57%    31%
Lincoln Educational Services           15%      47%    16%    -20%
Strayer Education                      25%      29%    24%    -1%
Industry Average                       16%      26%    26%    2%
Source: 10-K fillings of competitors

                                                                                                       5
Industry Analysis
                                       Valuations and Multiples of the Industry in 2011
                                                                                                   EV/EBITD
                                                              P/E     EV/Sales    EBIT Margin %               Sales/Assets
                                                                                                            A
DeVry                                                         10.32        0.94            15.82         4.28         1.18
Apollo                                                         9.95        0.92            23.27         3.58         1.45
Education Management                                          10.39        1.11            15.35         5.37         0.63
Career Education                                               4.59        0.06            12.26         0.41         1.43
Corinthian Colleges                                           12.47        0.27             3.18         3.77         1.55
ITT Education Services                                         5.67        0.95            33.81         4.48         0.58
Bridgepoint Education                                          8.07        1.05            29.33         3.51         1.52
Lincoln Educational Services                                   7.22        0.36             8.83         2.58         1.41
Strayer Education                                             11.14        1.83            28.55         5.98         2.71
Industry Average                                               8.87        0.83            18.93         4.19         1.39


                                                       Key Takeaways

        DeVry’s position and main weaknesses:
          – Valuation lags behind leaders such as
            Apollo and Strayer
          – Inefficient cost control; low EBIT
            margin
          – Underutilized resources; low
            Sales/Assets ratio
Source: 10-K fillings of competitors

                                                                                                                     6
Agenda



    Introduction and Overview
    Industry Analysis
    Business Model and Revenue Streams
    Investment Thesis
    Valuation and Transaction Dynamics
    Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps
    Conclusion
Business Model Highlights




                            8
Growing Revenues and Predictable Cash Flows
                                          Revenue                                                                                               M&A
       Stable growth in revenue and net income due                                                                  Fanor ($23.5M) – leading provider of private
        to organic growth and acquisitions                                                                            post-secondary education in Brazil
       Students are not likely to drop out due to                                                                   U.S. Education Corporation ($290M) –
        economic slowdowns                                                                                            provider of healthcare education through
                                                                                                                      certificate/associate programs
       But new student starts are influenced by
        economic slowdowns (i.e. improving                                                                           Advanced Academics ($27.5M) – leading
        unemployment rate would encourage                                                                             provider of online secondary education
        enrollment)                                                                                                   services
                                       Cash Flows                                                                                 Financial Highlights
       DeVry generates stable operating cash flows                                                                                2008          2009      2010     2011
       CFO has grown by 29% CAGR for past 3                                                                 Revenue                1,092         1,461    1,915    2,182
        years while revenue has grown at 26%                                                                 Growth                         -      33.8%    31.1%    13.9%
        CAGR                                                                                                 Net Income             126            166      280      330
                                                                                                             CFO                    197            250      392      408
       CFO consistently stands at 17-24% of assets                                                          Capex                   63             74      131      136
                                                                                                             CFO/Assets             19.4%          17.4%    24.1%    22.1%


Source: FactSet Data, Company Data, http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media-relations/fact-sheets/nursing-shortage, DeVry Inc, 2011 10-K

                                                                                                                                                                      9
Agenda



    Introduction and Overview
    Industry Analysis
    Business Model and Revenue Streams
    Investment Thesis
    Valuation and Transaction Dynamics
    Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps
    Conclusion
Investment Thesis
                        1. Increase Student Enrollment - Grow Revenue
   High fixed cost means high operating leverage
     – Each additional student can be served at a small incremental cost
     – Boost number of students to maximize usage of these fixed costs
   Differentiate curriculum
     – Design more programs focusing on fastest growing sectors such as nursing and healthcare
     – Involve employers in curriculum design and hire industry leaders and experts as instructors
     – Initiate study abroad-like program to better connect international students/consumers (these
       also tend to be higher margin programs)
   Enhance job placement results
     – Establish academia-industry alliances to match graduates and employers
     – Enhance career services and develop alumni networks to enhance job placement results.




                                                                                                11
Investment Thesis
                           2. Optimize Resource Utilization - Increase Sales / Assets Ratio
      Provide discounts to encourage seasonally weak summer enrollment
      Expand facilities and widen course offerings at campuses in key population centers
      Consolidate and/or share suburban and rural campus space while also renting out unused
       capacity
      Upgrade the facilities of Carrington Community College to make them suitable for use by
       DeVry’s high-margin postgraduate degree programs

                                  3. Reduce Costs - Increase EBIT Margin & Lower SG&A
      Integrate online course delivery system and admin functions across different brands to create
       synergies and reduce operating costs
      Create a more universal marketing campaign which encompasses and links the various specialties
       Devry offers
      Tighten credit check process upon student enrollment to lower student loan default rates and
       collection costs

1. http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media-relations/fact-sheets/nursing-shortage
2. DeVry Inc, 2011 10-K

                                                                                                       12
Agenda



    Introduction and Overview
    Industry Analysis
    Business Model and Revenue Streams
    Investment Thesis
    Valuation and Transaction Dynamics
    Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps
    Conclusion
The Deal
                                          Structure                                                                               Transaction Dynamics
       Purchase price: $2.52B                                                                                       Pay 30% premium over latest closing price
                                                                                                                      ($44/share) to acquire company
       30% Equity – $720M
                                                                                                                         – Time frame: 3 – 6 months to close deal
       70% Debt – $1.80B
                                                                                                                     Bring in new managers for cost cutting and
           – 70% Mezzanine paid over 5 years
                                                                                                                      streamlining various divisions
           – 30% Senior paid over next 5 years                                                                       Exit via sale to strategic buyer after 5 years


                                     Assumptions                                                                                        Results
       Average growth rate: 14 %                                                                                    Valuation at exit: $5.50B
       Debt/Equity: 2.33 (Post-LBO)                                                                                 IRR: 22% (base case)
       Borrowing costs: 7-9% interest rate                                                                          CoC: 3.5 years
       Pre-LBO EV/EBITDA: 5.2                                                                                       Total value to equity investors: $5.0B
       Post-LBO EV/EBITDA: 5.2 (no expansion)


Source: FactSet Data, Company Data, http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media-relations/fact-sheets/nursing-shortage, DeVry Inc, 2011 10-K

                                                                                                                                                                   14
Unlocking Value
   COGS + SG&A is currently around
    81% of revenue
   Our target is lower to (through the
    methods described in investment thesis)
    around 72-74%
   This improvement puts DeVry in line
    with current industry leaders


   High operating leverage business means
    it is essential to grow student volume
   Our belief is that we can at least sustain
    the current growth rate of 14% if not
    expand
   Improving domestic macro conditions
    and further international expansion will
    help drive top-line

                                                 15
Agenda



    Introduction and Overview
    Industry Analysis
    Business Model and Revenue Streams
    Investment Thesis
    Valuation and Transaction Dynamics
    Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps
    Conclusion
Key Risks and Mitigation Solutions
The economy slows down, causing enrollment to drop further.
   Plan expansions carefully, based on projected population and economic growth in each region.

Competition tightens, with competitors poaching current students.
   Differentiate on education quality, job placement results and branding.
   Strengthen online course delivery platform to enhance flexibility to students.
   Create student clubs and communities to form a bond among current students.

The revenues do not offset the fixed costs.
   Consolidate IT systems, administration and careers services across member institutions.
   Sell off unprofitable and underused campuses. Negotiate lease termination.

Difficulties encountered in post-acquisition integration
   Grow organically
   Carefully assess synergetic potential and cross-selling opportunities before making an acquisition.


                                                                                                    17
Agenda



    Introduction and Overview
    Industry Analysis
    Business Model and Revenue Streams
    Investment Thesis
    Valuation and Transaction Dynamics
    Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps
    Conclusion
Education is good business.

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DeVry Inc. LBO Analysis.

  • 1. Private Equity Final Presentation Friday, March 23, 2012 Yiu Lau, Daniel Möllerhenn, Ram Peri, Xin Yu
  • 2. Agenda  Introduction and Overview  Industry Analysis  Business Model and Revenue Streams  Investment Thesis  Valuation and Transaction Dynamics  Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps  Conclusion
  • 3. Company Overview Company Overview Stock Performance (NYSE Ticker: DV)  DeVry is a for-profit higher education organization  Founded in 1931, named DeVry University in 2002  Enrollment of 80,000+ undergrad and grad students  200,000+ graduates in the last 25 years  90+ campuses throughout US, Canada, Brazil  Headquarters: Downers Grove, IL  Market cap: $2.3B  Revenue 2011: $2.2B - CAGR 2008-2011: 26%  EBITDA 2011: $491M  CFFO 2011: $408M - CAGR 2008-2011: 27%  Debt 2011: $0 Three Major Business Segments Financial Highlights  Business, Management and Technology % of Op Op Segment Revenue – DeVry University, Keller Graduate School of Total Income Margin Management, Carrington College Business, Tech, – Highest operating margin, biggest segment 14.60 19.73% 359 25% Management  Healthcare and Nursing Medical/ – Ross University, Chamberlain College of Nursing, 5.58 7.54% 107 19% Healthcare American University, Carrington College – High growth in demand for nurses Professional, 1.64 22.2% 33 20% K12, International  Professional Training and K12 – Becker Professional Educator, Advanced Academics Totals (FY11) 21.82 29.49% 499 23% Source: FactSet Data, Company Data, http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media-relations/fact-sheets/nursing-shortage, DeVry Inc, 2011 10-K 3
  • 4. Agenda  Introduction and Overview  Industry Analysis  Business Model and Revenue Streams  Investment Thesis  Valuation and Transaction Dynamics  Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps  Conclusion
  • 5. Industry Analysis Recent Revenue Development (in $M) Recent Revenue Growth Market Share by Revenue in 2011 Revenue Growth Rates 2008 2009 2010 2011 DeVry Inc 17% 34% 31% 14% Apollo Group 15% 26% 25% -4% Education Management 24% 19% 25% 15% Career Education -1% 11% 16% -10% Corinthian Colleges 17% 23% 35% 6% ITT Educational Services 17% 30% 21% -6% Bridgepoint Education 156% 108% 57% 31% Lincoln Educational Services 15% 47% 16% -20% Strayer Education 25% 29% 24% -1% Industry Average 16% 26% 26% 2% Source: 10-K fillings of competitors 5
  • 6. Industry Analysis Valuations and Multiples of the Industry in 2011 EV/EBITD P/E EV/Sales EBIT Margin % Sales/Assets A DeVry 10.32 0.94 15.82 4.28 1.18 Apollo 9.95 0.92 23.27 3.58 1.45 Education Management 10.39 1.11 15.35 5.37 0.63 Career Education 4.59 0.06 12.26 0.41 1.43 Corinthian Colleges 12.47 0.27 3.18 3.77 1.55 ITT Education Services 5.67 0.95 33.81 4.48 0.58 Bridgepoint Education 8.07 1.05 29.33 3.51 1.52 Lincoln Educational Services 7.22 0.36 8.83 2.58 1.41 Strayer Education 11.14 1.83 28.55 5.98 2.71 Industry Average 8.87 0.83 18.93 4.19 1.39 Key Takeaways  DeVry’s position and main weaknesses: – Valuation lags behind leaders such as Apollo and Strayer – Inefficient cost control; low EBIT margin – Underutilized resources; low Sales/Assets ratio Source: 10-K fillings of competitors 6
  • 7. Agenda  Introduction and Overview  Industry Analysis  Business Model and Revenue Streams  Investment Thesis  Valuation and Transaction Dynamics  Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps  Conclusion
  • 9. Growing Revenues and Predictable Cash Flows Revenue M&A  Stable growth in revenue and net income due  Fanor ($23.5M) – leading provider of private to organic growth and acquisitions post-secondary education in Brazil  Students are not likely to drop out due to  U.S. Education Corporation ($290M) – economic slowdowns provider of healthcare education through certificate/associate programs  But new student starts are influenced by economic slowdowns (i.e. improving  Advanced Academics ($27.5M) – leading unemployment rate would encourage provider of online secondary education enrollment) services Cash Flows Financial Highlights  DeVry generates stable operating cash flows   2008 2009 2010 2011  CFO has grown by 29% CAGR for past 3 Revenue 1,092 1,461 1,915 2,182 years while revenue has grown at 26% Growth - 33.8% 31.1% 13.9% CAGR Net Income 126 166 280 330 CFO 197 250 392 408  CFO consistently stands at 17-24% of assets Capex 63 74 131 136 CFO/Assets 19.4% 17.4% 24.1% 22.1% Source: FactSet Data, Company Data, http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media-relations/fact-sheets/nursing-shortage, DeVry Inc, 2011 10-K 9
  • 10. Agenda  Introduction and Overview  Industry Analysis  Business Model and Revenue Streams  Investment Thesis  Valuation and Transaction Dynamics  Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps  Conclusion
  • 11. Investment Thesis 1. Increase Student Enrollment - Grow Revenue  High fixed cost means high operating leverage – Each additional student can be served at a small incremental cost – Boost number of students to maximize usage of these fixed costs  Differentiate curriculum – Design more programs focusing on fastest growing sectors such as nursing and healthcare – Involve employers in curriculum design and hire industry leaders and experts as instructors – Initiate study abroad-like program to better connect international students/consumers (these also tend to be higher margin programs)  Enhance job placement results – Establish academia-industry alliances to match graduates and employers – Enhance career services and develop alumni networks to enhance job placement results. 11
  • 12. Investment Thesis 2. Optimize Resource Utilization - Increase Sales / Assets Ratio  Provide discounts to encourage seasonally weak summer enrollment  Expand facilities and widen course offerings at campuses in key population centers  Consolidate and/or share suburban and rural campus space while also renting out unused capacity  Upgrade the facilities of Carrington Community College to make them suitable for use by DeVry’s high-margin postgraduate degree programs 3. Reduce Costs - Increase EBIT Margin & Lower SG&A  Integrate online course delivery system and admin functions across different brands to create synergies and reduce operating costs  Create a more universal marketing campaign which encompasses and links the various specialties Devry offers  Tighten credit check process upon student enrollment to lower student loan default rates and collection costs 1. http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media-relations/fact-sheets/nursing-shortage 2. DeVry Inc, 2011 10-K 12
  • 13. Agenda  Introduction and Overview  Industry Analysis  Business Model and Revenue Streams  Investment Thesis  Valuation and Transaction Dynamics  Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps  Conclusion
  • 14. The Deal Structure Transaction Dynamics  Purchase price: $2.52B  Pay 30% premium over latest closing price ($44/share) to acquire company  30% Equity – $720M – Time frame: 3 – 6 months to close deal  70% Debt – $1.80B  Bring in new managers for cost cutting and – 70% Mezzanine paid over 5 years streamlining various divisions – 30% Senior paid over next 5 years  Exit via sale to strategic buyer after 5 years Assumptions Results  Average growth rate: 14 %  Valuation at exit: $5.50B  Debt/Equity: 2.33 (Post-LBO)  IRR: 22% (base case)  Borrowing costs: 7-9% interest rate  CoC: 3.5 years  Pre-LBO EV/EBITDA: 5.2  Total value to equity investors: $5.0B  Post-LBO EV/EBITDA: 5.2 (no expansion) Source: FactSet Data, Company Data, http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media-relations/fact-sheets/nursing-shortage, DeVry Inc, 2011 10-K 14
  • 15. Unlocking Value  COGS + SG&A is currently around 81% of revenue  Our target is lower to (through the methods described in investment thesis) around 72-74%  This improvement puts DeVry in line with current industry leaders  High operating leverage business means it is essential to grow student volume  Our belief is that we can at least sustain the current growth rate of 14% if not expand  Improving domestic macro conditions and further international expansion will help drive top-line 15
  • 16. Agenda  Introduction and Overview  Industry Analysis  Business Model and Revenue Streams  Investment Thesis  Valuation and Transaction Dynamics  Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps  Conclusion
  • 17. Key Risks and Mitigation Solutions The economy slows down, causing enrollment to drop further.  Plan expansions carefully, based on projected population and economic growth in each region. Competition tightens, with competitors poaching current students.  Differentiate on education quality, job placement results and branding.  Strengthen online course delivery platform to enhance flexibility to students.  Create student clubs and communities to form a bond among current students. The revenues do not offset the fixed costs.  Consolidate IT systems, administration and careers services across member institutions.  Sell off unprofitable and underused campuses. Negotiate lease termination. Difficulties encountered in post-acquisition integration  Grow organically  Carefully assess synergetic potential and cross-selling opportunities before making an acquisition. 17
  • 18. Agenda  Introduction and Overview  Industry Analysis  Business Model and Revenue Streams  Investment Thesis  Valuation and Transaction Dynamics  Risk Analysis and Mitigation Steps  Conclusion
  • 19. Education is good business.

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Fixed costs: Curriculum design, instructor recruitment, campus construction, online course delivery system, marketing, student acquisition, job placements services.