The Future of work and impact on the technology worker
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A talk on the megatrends which will impact on all companies and the opportunities for the technology worker
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The Future of work and impact on the technology worker
- 1. Peter Cosgrove June 18th 2014
- 2. The fear of being without your cellphone or losing your signal
- 3. Agenda • Future Employment/ Work Trends • What it means for your company • What is the impact for you the technology worker
- 4. Predictions 1899 “Everything that can be invented has been invented” 1927 "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk" 1981 “640 kilobytes ought to be enough for anyone” 2012 “One Direction will never take off”
- 5. Predictions 1899 “Everything that can be invented has been invented” US Patent office 1927 "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk" Warner Brothers President 1981 “640 kilobytes ought to be enough for anyone” Bill Gates 2012 “One Direction will never take off” Me
- 6. The first critique of the internet – very much an understatement!
- 7. Change has never happened so fast and it will never happen so slow again
- 8. Megatrends
- 9. Demographics
- 10. • By 2030 most of Singapore’s population will not be at working age • Sweden – 64% are now in single households • 1 in 3 babies born in 2012 in the UK are expected to live past 100 • 40% of French people are over 55 and are not working
- 11. The number needed to replicate the species – countries either need to make babies or import them
- 14. ACCOMMODATING OLDER WORKERS 30 40 50 60 70 FRANCE OECD TOTAL UNITED KINGDOM DENMARK GERMANY CHILE CANADA UNITED STATES KOREA JAPAN NORWAY Employment Rate of Older Workers, 2013 % OF POPULATON AGED 55-64
- 15. Women taking over the world
- 16. • 23 million people in Europe are unemployed yet vacancies are on the rise • McKinsey – shortfall of 16 – 18 million college educated workers by 2020 • 2000s - less people working at the end of the decade than at the start Trends
- 19. • Between 2010 – 2020 internet access will spread to 3 billion people • 5 billion will have access to the internet by 2025 Hyperconnectivity
- 21. Education
- 22. University / Education • The value of the University degree is falling • UNESCO “by 2030 one in two will have a university education” • Growth of MOOCs
- 23. Khadijah Niazi The head of Stanford put his first year software engineering lecture online and the exam paper – this 12 year old came first of the 20,000 who took it!
- 24. Over 60% of the top 10 Universities worldwide in the USA
- 25. Talent clusters
- 27. Moore’s law
- 28. 3-d printers – will manufacturing come back to the first world. A 28 y/o Japanese man was arrested for making guns
- 29. Music Photography News Job Advertising Everything is changing – so will your business/ industry
- 30. Hotels Books Retail Shops Record Producers Banks Auction Houses Taxis Disintermediation
- 31. What jobs the iPad is doing away with Keys Books Thermometer Letter box Barometer GPS Address Books Tax Return Fixed telephone Expenses Video conferencing Wallet Mouse / keyboard Flyers Tickets - movies Maps Torches Agendas Mosquito Noise Maker
- 32. Changing world of work
- 34. The human alarm clock
- 35. Jobs automated
- 36. Probability that your job will be done by computer • Telemarketers, mathematical technicians, tax preparers, accounts clerks Probability 0.99 • Educational, Guidance and Vocational Counsellors Probability .0085 (least likely to be computerised) …its about efficiencies… Ref: La Trobe Univeristy
- 37. New roles
- 38. Jobs of the Future
- 39. Work is not a place you go it is a thing you do
- 40. By 2020, Millennials—the first group of people to use digital networks since birth—will be of the workforce. 50%
- 41. By 2030, they’ll be 75%
- 42. • Nearly half of candidates do not see themselves in their current employer in 2 years • Loyalty to skills • Temp/ contract work increasing The changing candidate
- 43. ii
- 44. • 21% of people with a Facebook profile are work friends • 25% of workers highlighted their best friend was a work colleague • 59% of us have dated co-workers Blurred lines
- 45. Reputation
- 46. “Lamebook”
- 47. Your personal employees brand is linked more than ever with the strength of your corporate brand
- 48. • Huge change driven by technology • Huge opportunities because of hyper- connectivity • Massive change in the talent landscape • Huge changes in how your company’s brand will be perceived Megatrends
- 49. How it will affect you
- 50. 71% see technology as the number one external force to impact the organisation IBM CEO Survey 2012
- 51. Who’s your daddy? 30% 23% 10 20 30 40 0 2009 2012 % CTOs reporting to CEO
- 52. 20 40 60 80 0 100 CFO CTO 2009 2012 100% 100% 30% 23% Who’s your daddy?
- 53. 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s CEO CEO CEO CEO CEO CEO CFO COO CFO COO CFO COO CFO COO CFO COO CFO COO CMO CMO CMO CMO CTO CTO CTOCEOs looking for one throat to choke, they have it in Finance but In IT, there can be a CTO, CIO maybe a Chief Security officer…
- 54. Skillgap? ESSENTIAL Opinionated Commercial Revenue Generator NECESSARY Deep tech Manager Get it done
- 56. Who do you work for? “I work in IT” Many IT professionals answer when asked where they work – they need to be more business integrated
- 61. What measure are you using to see how effective your hiring is – most companies don’t
- 62. Bill Gates focused hugely not just on technology but great talent,. Even when others created a great product, Microsoft improved on it eg spreadsheet, database etc
- 63. Facts tell. Stories sell. Technologists need to be able to sell more to the business
- 67. A CRM tool that works without sales people having to do anything – that is what they want
- 68. Excellent tools build for use by the new generation of Millennials
- 69. Need to move away from IT as a stereotypical support service and as a business driver
- 70. Companies used to be powerful only if they had… But not now… LAND CAPITAL RAW MATERIALS
- 71. Now, companies don’t deal in things they deal in knowledge
- 72. How is it possible that Apple created the iPhone in 2007 and in 2011, Nokia has nothing remotely similar?”
- 74. I’m not sure what I’m looking for, but I’ll know it when I see it. .
- 75. Fish where the fish are…. Over 113,000 hits
- 76. Branding - Be a great company
- 77. Line Managers - Take Accountability Reference checking has to be done by the person who the hire will report to not by anyone else
- 78. The “Selection”Process Still a huge focus on university degrees – none of these guys have one
- 79. Money isn’t everything 1. Growth 2. High Calibre Team 3. Good management 4. Independence 5. Excitement about company products 6. Great Tools/ Hardware 7. Identify with Company Goals 8. Creative work 9. Location 10. Physical Workplace Stackoverflow annual survey
- 80. Skill sets change as we move to products • No longer do we have 3 year product launches • As technology changes faster so will the technologist need to change • Think attitude as much as aptitude
- 81. Takeaways
- 82. • Talent will be the key differentiator but understand the demographic changes • It will be easier to find people but harder to get them to work for you • People will work much longer than they used to but where from? • University education will be open to all • The droids will start taking our jobs • And……..Technology is the place to be What does this mean for you
- 83. Thank You Name: Peter Cosgrove Title: Director – Cpl Phone: 087 6200836 Email: peter.cosgrove@cpl.ie Twitter: @petercosgrove
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Thanks you and intro me Agenda on what we are going to talk through I hope to terrify you about the future, but then hopefully end with some good news.. I am also concious I am between you and your evening drinks in the beautiful sunshine
- Health warning – when you discuss predictions you can be very wrong
- Health warning – when you discuss predictions you can be very wrong
- This was the first critique of the internet – vague but exciting Something that was to become the most important communication and information tool of all time – it’s a bit of an understatement
- A quote I heard from a futurist Lynda Gratton - the future of work research Its scary how quick things are changing yet this will be slow compared to how quick things will change in the future!
- China – one child policy going to be a big challenge One child households – different marker for them The idea od your middle age is going to ave to change France in real trouble…but it wont affect the politicians wo are making these laws – it will be their grandchildren
- 2.1 is the number of babies We either need to make more babies or import more babies
- Here are the scary numbers around Europe
- Pension example
- Do one thing that will set your company in a new direction is to make your company more female-informed. Women are the majority of purchasers and the sharers of everything. Social media better for women. So look at any area that is male dominated and change it.
- It says global youth unemployment is more than 13 percent, compared to the overall worldwide rate of six percent. The International Labor Organization says in 2013, nearly 202 million people were unemployed around the world. This represents an increase of almost five million on the previous year ILO Director-General Guy Ryder says worse is to come. He says current trends indicate the number of unemployed will increase in coming years and is expected to reach 215 million by 2018.
- Huge increase in innovation….$
- Huge increase in innovation….$
- While there are many good reasons to get an academic qualification, it is also a sort of currency and it can go up and down dependent on market conditions. Unprecedented numbers are now going to college, in the 1970s 1 in 20 people went to college, now its 1 in 3 and will potentially rise to 1 in 2. According to UNESCO the number of people gaining formal education qualifications will exceed the gross total since the beginning of history. So now something more is needed to edge above the crowd Story about a university panel – what are you looking for “ a good Phd” not just a Phd What’s next – a Nobel Laureate Ken Robinson – international authoer and adviser on education
- Massive online open course - a course of study made available over the Internet without charge to a very large number of people.
- http://www.wiredacademic.com/2013/01/davos-12-year-old-pakistani-prodigy-girl-talks-about-her-online-learning/ Khadijah (Ka-dee-jeh) Niazi of Lahore, Pakistan, is an inspirational example of how online education is revolutionizing learning. She was only 10 years old when she first took the Artificial Intelligence online course on Udacity. She managed to finish the course and, the following year, Khadijah completed Udacity’s Physics course with highest distinction, being the youngest ever girl to complete it. Now, Khadijah is 12-years old, and earlier this month she sat next to Udacity founder Sebastian Thrun, Bill Gates of Microsoft, Larry Summers of Harvard, Thomas L. Friedman of The New York Times, and other panelists at the Victor Pinchuk Foundation’s 6th Philanthropic Roundtable, which took place at Davos in conjunction with the World Economic Forum. The discussion aims to show how MOOCs are finding their way to young prodigies around the world and how they are potentially changing the game in educational access. “I think that MOOCs may allow peace in the world,” she says at one point during the video. Why is she there. Because the Stanford lecturer put all his notes online and all MIT lectures are online and 1.5 million people has put it online. But he has also out the exam online. 20,000 people did the exam online, the same exam first year software engineering students at Stanford did online. She came first!!
- M twain – comments about my demise are greatly exaggerated – the same with te US http://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2013#sorting=rank+region=+country=+faculty=+stars=false+search= 10 of top 15 top unis are form US
- Exponential growth – one piece of rice on the first square and double after each square…. on the twentieth square it would have had to put 1,000,000 grains of rice. On the fortieth square it would have had to put 1,000,000,000 grains of rice. And, finally on the sixty fourth square the it would have had to put more than 18,000,000,000,000,000,000 grains of rice which is equal to about 210 billion tons and is allegedly sufficient to cover the whole territory of India with a meter thick layer of rice.
- http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/japanese-man-arrested-guns-3d-printer Make a human trachea Bring manufacturing back from China….
- People did not stop taking pictures or listening to music – they just changed how they did this If everything else is being reinvented why would recruitment not follow?
- Taxis – also uber
- Look at the mosquito repeller – also works for kids under 12 But look at the service industry and how this cannot work the same way – presenting today – what can I do I can talk faster or maybe record it and put it on a video screen but both are less aceptabel than what is happening now…..
- Highlighting a paper publisehed at the University of Oxford by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, the Atlantic serves as the harbiner of doom for workers in several industries and occupations. Inevitable technological progress, they say, will continue to eat into jobs in manufacturing, administrative support, retail, and transportation in "a decade or two."
- Some jobs harder –if I wanted to be more productive or efficient I could speak faster or put myself on the screen but both would more than liely impact the presentation…
- BYOD
- Temporary high unemployment is generating an overwhelming pool of the wrong applicants when companies need to tightly match the right skills with the candidates they need to recruit. Conclusion – hiring is very difficult First you need to find the right people and either you find none or you are swamped with applications Then you need to be clear who is right for you Then they need to want you …not as straightforward as it seems given people are not rational
- Opps for people to be educated Harder and easier to find talent if you change how you think
- 2 years ago 30% of CTOs reported into their CEO, now only 23% do,
- compare that to the fact that practically every CFO reports into the CEO, why is this the case, especially with added importance of IT
- Well the business is confused – there are no longer just IT Directors or CTOs, there are now CIOs, Chief Mobile Officers and many other acronyms. This can cause the CEO a challenge – they like one point of contact on this or more accurately one “throat to choke” and this does not give them one.
- Also IT professionals recently surveyed felt the most important skill for Directors in Technology was people/ soft skills, but they admitted they were doing little about it. This is critical, as CEOs want CTOs who are influencers, who can increase or create whole new revenue streams and who can help shape the business strategy
- Graph on most imp vs most trained on skill So they recognise that people skills are the most important but they also agree they dont get any training on this It is much more nebulous and it is also something much more difficult to identify a quick win unlike legal training for example
- Surveying anecdotally many IT professionals who do not work for a tech company – so say if they work for Lisney, for KPMG, for Musgraves or kerry group – they are more likely to say they work in IT rather than answer the question with the company they work for. This is interesting if you think about what this says – for technology to be front and centre of the organisation we need the technologists to associate themselves with the company brand– this may need to change SO as you heard yesterday – if you are in IT are you proud of the company you work for Again someone highligthed yesterday via a question that there seems to be quite a difference in a tech led company and one that is not
- We know that 1 year olds accessing ipads and IT have school policies technology for 6 year olds It’s a brave new world out there.
- However where this becomes a challenge is how IT is now in everybody’s homes in everyone’s pocket and . How can I be master of the universe Saturday and Sunday, and such a dweeb Monday to Friday? How is it I can find out who sat beside me in second class in school, but not know who my best customer is? What’s going on here!
- the fact that everyone uses technology in almost everything they do means they feel they know what they need and they want it now. People expect to achieve very simple chores on mobile devices and it frustrates them when IT cannot do this in a business context. The importance of data security, IT audits, compliance, password security is lost on the business user
- So there is this feeling in every business and from the CEO that technology should be giving them more of an advantage So how can the proliferation of technology in the business act as a positive not a challenge and improve the brand of IT? And stop business people asking “why can’t I”
- but ask yourself what measure your organisations use to measure talent and effectiveness – probably very little, so don’t expect anyone to want to have the best team in place but you. It is now the key differentiator But, hiring while critical is a hugely deficient skill and also more importantly something IT professionals dislike.
- Bill Gates always talked about others POSSIBLY having better technology but Microsoft having better talent, so they created something and we made it better and he did this with the spreadsheet, the database, the internet etc. One of his contentions was that while Microsoft had innovators, they made a lot more money neutralising the competitors – so they were always clear on the skills they needed – so you do to?
- Tell the story first to the business then talk about the importance of data! You will capture the room better The business do not admire complexity they want a simple message and now more than ever that helps make speedier decisions.
- You have heard the phrase facts tell, stories sell, for those of you who never heard this story about the store Target I will recount it quickly A father is irate when his 15 year old daughter receives info about pregnancy clothes, from Target, on a mail drop. He complains about the inappropriateness to the shop but subsequently apologises as he unfortunately find out his 15 y/o is pregnant. Target looked into their data and it highlighted that she had changed from scented to unscented shampoo and had bought a range of vitamins mainly bought by pregnant women – all of this had generated her profile as being pregnant, so the store knew before the father knew – that’s how data analytics are now tracking us
- · Watches your network · Alerts to potential job seekers · Alerts to moves and promotions · Great tool for business development
- We don’t just want technologists who understand the business we want products that do the work for us. Many failed IT solutions could be summarised as – the product worked, the business just did not use it correctly but what about products that work if you use it or not
- We just partnered with Datahug who provide a crm tool around capturing email traffic – the beauty is there is no manual entries needed from the sales team so it works in the background because everyone uses email -perfect
- You see this very simply with channels like Yammer and Chatter – simple Social communication tools that are understood by the business and are for the business – these are becoming really powerful not just for communication but for areas like crowdsourcing – something Dell are using effectively I have seen. Also we are now seeing three year product launces that need 50 developers
- Secondly get your team to be visible – never before have the whole of the business been so ensconced in technology – use it to your advantage, The business wants to talk technology, the CEO is using more technology, this is a chance to break down barriers of the business and technology and speak to the business about the business – If you improve the IT brand – you will improve the IT influence.
- Because they had LAND, CAPITAL or RAW MATERIALS..not any more So it all comes down to ...Talent.
- Steve Ilop, Former CEO Nokia was quoted last year “How is it possible that Apple created the iPhone in 2007 and in 2011, Nokia has nothing remotely similar?” a damning sentence you can say – Nokia felt it had to out-differentiate Apple
- it was too proud to copy; whereas Google had Android out incredibly quickly. So until you know what the critical business drivers are you may struggle to hire the best IT talent – are you hiring innovators, or are you hiring business savvy technologists where speed to market may sometimes be the more important driver than innovation.
- Said…Every hiring manager ever,at some point in their career Once you know what you want YOU need to start looking to tap into the vast amount of networks available to IT professionals (and they are vast) and spend time finding out who those people you want are. Simpl put - when you know what you want – it becomes a lot easier to find it or in this case them
- Y don’t have to like social media but you have to go with the trends – mobile devices, I in 7 people in the workd in facebook etc How is that infused into your hiring strategy Ritzys nightclub
- 7 times more likely to be viewed with a pic than without Referrals – use your own networks
- You do everything by interview – therefore you are using a very poor assessment tool, and you do it 5 times as opposed to giving some sort of a test – you would not hire a secretary without checking typing speed, there are plenty of tests to give IT, marketing, finance professionals but we do not use them Its about de-selection not selection however de-selecting based on degree would exclude such visionaries such as: Steve jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, Michael dell etc If you found the perfect candidate would you hire them – no I need to see a few more candidates! You take forever to make a decision because rightfully you worry about hiring but you end up losing candidates who love companies that can move the process along You do not put out your best people to hire Reference – nothing highlights better how good they are – work harder to get reliable references, there are ways around companies saying they don’t give out references – we are a small village really – someone will always know someone Always be ready to hire – many great people apply to companies they love not positions and companies cannot handle this – you need to!
- NO 5 is interesting – the importance of what te company does
- ?
- It says global youth unemployment is more than 13 percent, compared to the overall worldwide rate of six percent. The International Labor Organization says in 2013, nearly 202 million people were unemployed around the world. This represents an increase of almost five million on the previous year ILO Director-General Guy Ryder says worse is to come. He says current trends indicate the number of unemployed will increase in coming years and is expected to reach 215 million by 2018.
- We have droids and robots delivering the drinks in keeping wit tonight’s theme…..