5. DEMONETISATION
REASON OF DEMONETISATION IN INDIA
POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EFFECT
DEMONETISATION EFFECT IN WORLD
DEMONETISATION IN INDIA
DEMONETISATION INDIAN ECONOMY
Sinha's Presentation
7. WHAT IS DEMONETISATION?
Demonetization is the act of stripping
a currency unit of its status as legal tender.
Demonetization is necessary whenever there is
a change of national currency. The old unit of
currency must be retired and replaced with a
new currency unit.
8.
9. On 8 november 2016 PM Narendra Modi announced
the demonetisation in an unscheduled live televised
address at 20:00
Modi declared that use of all ₹500 and ₹1000
banknotes would be invalid past midnight, and
announced the issuance of new ₹500
and ₹2000 banknotes in exchange for the old
banknotes.
10. Meaning of demonetisation
Demonetisation is the act of stripping a currency unit
of its status as legal tender.
The old unit of currency must be retired and replaced
with a new currency unit.
11. The Reserve Bank of India stipulated a window of fifty days until
December 30, 2016 to deposit the demonetised banknotes in bank
accounts. The banknotes could also be exchanged over the counter of
bank branches upto a limit that varied over the days:
Initially, the limit was fixed at ₹4,000 per person from 8 to 13
November.
This limit was increased to ₹4,500 per person from 14 to 17
November.
The limit was reduced to ₹2,000 per person from 18 November.
All exchange of banknotes was abruptly stopped from November 25,
2016.
International airports were also instructed to facilitate an exchange of
notes amounting to a total value of ₹5,000 for foreign tourists and
out-bound passengers
12. Strikes
As the demonetisation was opposed in both houses of
the parliament, it triggered organised nationwide
strikes across India.
The Opposition involving parties like Indian National
Congress, BSP,DMK, JD(U), AIADMK, Nationalist
Congress Party, Left, Rashtriya Janta Dal and
the Samajwadi Party decided to observe ‘Akrosh Diwas’
as, a protest campaign day on November 28 and launch
protests in front of banks, demanding that money be
returned to people.
13. The decision met with mixed initial reactions. Several bankers
like Arundhati Bhattacharya(Chairperson of State Bank of India)
and Chanda Kochhar (MD & CEO of ICICI Bank) appreciated the
move in the sense that it would help curb black money. Infosys
founder N.R. Narayna Murthy praised the move.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that demonetisation would
clean the complete economic system, increase the size of
economy and revenue base
14. The Indian Supreme Court while hearing one among a slew of cases
filed against the sudden demonetisation decision in various
courts, observed that it "appears to be carpet bombing and not surgical
strike" which government repeatedly claims it to be.
Nobel laureate Indian economist Amartya Sen, severely criticised the
demonetisation move calling it a "despotic action" among other things.
Former Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist of the World
Bank, Kaushik Basu, called it a 'major mistake' and said that the
'damage' is likely to be much greater than any possible benefits.
15. It has been reported that 97% of the demonetised
notes are back in banks and banks have received Rs
14.97 trillion ($220 billion) as of December 30 out of
the 15.4 trillion rupees that were demonetised. The
return of 97% of money back in bank have a
negative impact on government's move against black
money.
16. Reasons for
Demonetization IN INDIA
•We knew terrorism is a frightening threat, but who funds
these terrorists? Our enemies they use the fake currency
to sponsor terror-this was proven many a times.
•Corruption and black money are the major obstacles in
our country. It is weakening the efforts to remove poverty.
Our country is rapidly increasing in terms of growth and
we are in No.1 position in terms of growth but we are
ranked 76 in Global Corruption Perception ranking. It
clearly shows how corruption and black money have
spread their tentacles.
19. • The major decision which is made by the government will
help us to eradicate black money, corruption to some
extent by replacing the cash transactions in our daily
activities.
Also Financial Intelligence Unit will track all details of
the transactions from the banks. So now it is really difficult to
get rid of the black money.
20. Demonetization impacted 20 Trillion Human
Trafficking Industry
other sectors like drug trafficking, illegal trade and
the money use in it, funding of election and
involvement of various terrorist groups effected
badly.
Steps towards cashless economy
Real estate can see significant course of correction
Less chance of avoiding taxes
Parallel economy
21. The Demonetization has badly hit Maoist and Naxalites as well.
The surrender rate has reached its highest since the
demonetization is announced. It is said that the money these
organizations have collected over the years have left with no value
and it has caused them to reach to this decision.
22. • Real estate industry is totally corrupted and now by this
stringent decision the real estate sector will bring in
more transparency. By doing it in this way we will have
more credibility, making it more attractive to the
foreign investors as well as domestic investors.
23. A huge fall in HUMAN trafficking. All the transaction
of selling and buying used to happen through cash
mainly in the form of ₹500 & ₹1000 notes but now
there is no liquidity which has hit the business badly.
24. transactions – Demonetisation has crippled
the hawala rackets. Hawala is a method of
transferring money without any actual money
movement. Hawala is used as a means for facilitating
money laundering and funding terror.
25. • The scarcity of cash due to demonetisation led to chaos,
and most people holding old banknotes faced difficulties
exchanging them due to endless lines outside banks and
ATMs across India, which became a daily routine for
millions of people waiting to deposit or exchange the ₹500
and ₹1000 banknotes since 9 November.
26. Several people were reported to have died from
standing in queues for hours to exchange their old
banknotes. By the end of the year 2016, opposition
leaders claimed that over 100 people had died due to
demonetisation.
27. The day after the demonetisation announcement, BSE
SENSEX crashed nearly 1,689 points and NIFTY
50 plunged by over 541 points.By the end of the
intraday trading section on 15 November 2016, the BSE
SENSEX index was lower by 565 points and the NIFTY
50 index was below 8100 intraday.
28. Agriculture
Transactions in the Indian agriculture sector are heavily
dependent on cash and were adversely affected by the
demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 bank notes. Due to
scarcity of the new banknotes, many farmers have
insufficient cash to purchase seeds, fertilisers and
pesticides. Farmers and their unions conducted protest
rallies against the demonetisation.
29. The demonetisation led to unavailability of cash to pay for food
products. The reduction in demand that arose in turn led to a
crash in the prices of crops. Farmers were unable to recover
even the costs of transportation from their fields to the
market from the low prices offered. The prices dropped as low
as 50 paise per kilo for tomatoesand onions.This forced the
farmers across the country to dump their products in
desperation. Some farmers dumped their produce in protest
against the government.
30. By the second week after demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000
banknotes, cigarette sales across India witnessed a fall of 30–
40%, while E-commerce companies saw up to a 30% decline
in cash on delivery (COD) orders.
The demand for point of sales (POS) or card swipe machines
has increased.E-payment options like Paytm and , has also seen
a rise. According to data of Pine Labs, the demand for its POS
machines doubled after the decision..
31. Results
Income tax raids and money came into system
Fighting corruption and counterfeiting
Expanding the formal economic grid and building
digital economy
The Indian finance minister Arun Jaitley claimed the
direct tax collection has increased 14.4%
Government reports a combined 268% year on year
increase in tax collection for november 2016.
32.
33. LIST OF COUNTRIES THAT HAVE
TRIED DEMONETIZATION:
• UNITED STATES (1873)
• UNITED STATES (1969)
• INDIA (1978)
• GHANA (1982)
• NIGERIA (1984)
• MYANMAR (1987)
• SOVIET UNION (1991)
• ZAIRE(1993)
• AUSTRALIA (1996)
• EUROPEAN UNION (2002)
• NORTH KOREA (2010)
• ZIMBAWE (2015)
• INDIA(November, 2016)
• VENEZUELA (December, 2016)
34. One of the earliest instances of demonetization can be witnessed in United States on
mandated removal of silver in favour of adopting the gold standard as the legal
tender.
This led to a contraction of the money supply and subsequently a 5-year economic
depression in the country.
35. In 1969, the United States of America under President Richard Nixon declared all
bills above $100 null and void ,to curb the existence of black money in the
nation and restore the country’s sheen.
The $100 bill is the most widely circulated denomination till date.
36. India witnessed demonetization before in 1978 when the Janata party coalition in order to
counter black money in the economy decided to scrap 10000, 1000 and 500 rupee
notes.
The RBI governor back then, was not in favour of the step since it was believed that the
step was targeted at the corrupt predecessor government leaders.
37. To reduce tax evasion and clear excess liquidity, the country demonetized its 50 cedi
currency.
The exercise was highly unsuccessful as the public started turning towards foreign
currency and physical assets.
38. The military government under Muhammadu Buhari started issuing new
currency notes with new colours in an attempt to make the old notes
obsolete.
The movement aimed towards fixing a debt-ridden and inflated economy failed
miserably.
39. Under the leadership of Mikhail Gorbachev, 50 and 100 rubble notes were removed
from circulation in an attempt to combat the parallel economy.
The removed notes formed about one third of the total money in circulation. There
were economic dislocations and several Soviet republics such as Kazakhstan
and Ukraine were severely affected.
40. Under the dictatorship of Mobutu Sese Seko, successive currency reforms were
rolled out.
Obsolescent currency was withdrawn from the system in 1993. Increasing
economic disruptions resulted in ouster of Mobutu in 1997.
41. In order to improve upon the security features and curb black money in the
economy, the Australian government withdrew all paper-based notes replacing
them with polymer-based note.
This helped in making Australia a business friendly country, despite the initial costs
incurred to manufacture polymer-based notes.
42. Introduction of a unified currency ‘Euro’ on Jan 1, 2002 called for demonetization
of the existing currencies of 12 countries under the European Union.
About eight billion notes and 38 billion coins were distributed through 218,000
banks, post offices and 2.8 million sales outlets.
Prior preparations starting from mid 1998 and informing the citizens well in
advance resulted in this successful currency changeover.
43. In order to halt black market and improve the economy, Kim Jong–II government
introduced currency changes.
The move backfired as the price of necessity goods increased and people strongly
resisted the move.
This was followed by the murder of the finance minister.
44. The military invalidated nearly 80 percent of the value of money in circulation with
the motive to curb the rising black economy.
It resulted in a student demonstration followed by a government crackdown the
very next year.
45. On November 8,2016 PM Narendra Modi declared that from the stroke of
midnight 500 and 1000 rupee notes would cease to be legal tender.
This immediately sparked unrest and an estimated 15 tonnes of gold worth Rs
5000 crores was bought within an hour of the announcement.
ATMs and banks were engulfed with people demanding and depositing cash. The
situation only deteriorated thereafter.
46. In order to curb the rising inflation rate that reached 425% and tackle the
growing threat of the transnational mafias breeding in the country.
The Nicolas-Maduro led government announced demonetization of its 100
Bolivar notes (which form 77% of the nation’s cash in circulation).
47. In order to stabilize its economy racked by hyperinflation, the government
decided to replace the Zimbabwe dollar with the American dollar in 2015.
The move, carried out in a haste turned out to be unsuccessful as most wealth
holders saw the value of their accumulated savings receding.
50. Impact Of Demonetization
Inflation : It will cause inflation in the market as people who
have earned money through illegal ways would be afraid to
declare the money as they may be prosecuted by the Income tax
department on the legitimacy of their income.
Reduction in Monetary Circulation: This will lead to
reduction of money circulation in the economy leading to
deflation. Value of money will be increasing which we have
because the total money supply will be going down but the
commodities and things available in the market have not gone
down. It will lead to inflation slowly but not overnight.
51. Impact Of Demonetization(contd.)
Cash Deposits in Banks: A lot of cash which
are legally earned will be deposited in the banks
and now the banks with more deposits will be
able to do more lending.
Easy Loans: Loans will become easier and
interest rates may come down. As banks will
have more money so more loans will be given
out which will increase the money supply in the
market and it will create inflation.
52. PROS AND CONS OF DEMONETIZATION:
PROS:
• The major decision which is made by the
government will help us to eradicate black
money, corruption to some extent.
• Due to lack of funding there will be no arms
smuggling and all the terrorist activities will
also be choked.
• Financial Intelligence Unit will track all details
of the transactions from the banks. So now it is
really difficult to get rid of the black money.
53. PROS (CONTD.):
• Exchange of money in banks can only be done producing a valid
identity cards like PAN, aadhar card and electoral card from 10
to 24 November with a daily limit of Rs.4000. By doing so it will
be easy for the government to track the money which is being
exchanged in banks. There is no limit if the amount which we
are exchanging is legal amount.
• Real estate industry is totally corrupted and now by this
stringent decision the real estate sector will bring in more
transparency. By doing it in this way we will have more
credibility, making it more attractive to the foreign investors as
well as domestic investors.
54. CONS:
• It will cause great inconvenience to common man who
will start running to bank to exchange Rs.500 and
Rs.1000 notes.
• By replacing all the Rs.500 and Rs.1000 denomination
notes, as ordered by the government, could cost the
RBI at least Rs.12000 crore.
• It will be very difficult for half of the population who
are not well versed with the card transactions.
• The major problem is that big fishes will be left out
whose black money is in the form of foreign currency,
gold and property and stashed in tax havens.
55. Effect of Demonetization on Indian Economy
• It will likely hit the economy hard in the short term.. The
service sector, which dominates economic activity and involves
a sizable chunk of cash transactions, will likely be hit the
hardest.
• GDP growth in the quarters from September to December 2016
and January to March 2017 could be significantly lower than
previous years. Some bounce back should be seen in the first
quarter of fiscal 2017–2018.
• The demonetization that has been in effect since November 9 is
expected to have a negative impact on inflation. Consumer
spending activity fell to a near halt.
56. Effects of demonetisation
The Demonetization has badly hit Maoist and Nasalises
as well. The surrender rate has reached its highest since the
demonetization is announced. It is said that the money
these organizations have collected over the years have left
with no value and it has caused them to reach to this
decision.
Real estate industry is totally corrupted and now by this
stringent decision the real estate sector will bring in more
transparency. By doing it in this way we will have more
credibility, making it more attractive to the foreign
investors as well as domestic investors.
57. A huge fall in HUMAN trafficking was assumed. All
the transaction of selling and buying used to happen
through cash mainly in the form of ₹500 & ₹1000
notes but now there is no liquidity which has hit the
business badly.
The scarcity of cash due to demonetisation led to
chaos, and most people holding old banknotes faced
difficulties exchanging them due to endless lines
outside banks and ATMs across India, which became a
daily routine for millions of people waiting to deposit
or exchange the ₹500 and ₹1000 banknotes since 9
November.
58. Several people were reported to have died
from standing in queues for hours to
exchange their old banknotes. By the end
of the year 2016, opposition leaders
claimed that over 100 people had died due
to demonetisation.
59. The day after the demonetisation announcement, BSE
SENSEX crashed nearly 1,689 points and NIFTY
50 plunged by over 541 points. By the end of the
intraday trading section on 15 November 2016, the BSE
SENSEX index was lower by 565 points and the NIFTY
50 index was below 8100 intraday.
Transactions in the Indian agriculture sector are heavily
dependent on cash and were adversely affected by the
demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 bank notes. Due to
scarcity of the new banknotes, many farmers have
insufficient cash to purchase seeds, fertilisers and
pesticides. Farmers and their unions conducted protest
rallies against the demonetisation.
60. Support
The decision met with mixed initial reactions. Several bankers
like Arundhati Bhattacharya(Chairperson of State Bank of
India) and Chanda Kochhar (MD & CEO of ICICI Bank)
appreciated the move in the sense that it would help curb black
money. Infosys founder N.R. Narayna Murthy praised the
move.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that demonetisation would
clean the complete economic system, increase the size of
economy and revenue base
61. Demonetization for vendors
The need for this paper is to shows that how demonetization has affected
the unorganized sectors of economy with the special reference to hawkers
and vendors.
62. Problems in withdrawing cash
However if they arrange to buy card swiping machine or
Smartphone but they don’t know how to access it and if
somehow they learn to access them then also they face
several problems such as:
...
• how to recover deduction of money from failed
transaction.
...
• if they input wrong amount how to correct it.
...
• how to check whether or not amount is deducted from
failed transaction.
63. Demonetization has motivated cashless
transaction in economy.
Because of shortage of cash people start preferring
online mode of payment and shopkeepers started
prevailing online mode of payments .
After situation being handled people still prefer
online mode of payment as it is much safer to
carry plastic money or PayTm rather than to keep
cash in wallet.
It’s a kind of 1st step toward PM’s digital India
mission.
64. Facts and figures
It has been reported that 97%of the demonetised notes are back in banks
and banks have received Rs 14.97 trillion ($220 billion) as of December 30
out of the 15.4 trillion rupees that were demonetised. The return of 97% of
money back in bank have a negative impact on government's move against
black money.
67. 50% of them do not have bank accounts, and 30% of them
access bank only in their home town. Whereas only 20% of
them have bank account in the city they are living. So it was
bit difficult for hawkers and vendor to change demonetized
notes of 500 and 1000 Rs. with new currency.
20
30
50
having bank account in current city/
town
having bank account in home town don’t have any bank account
68. Some of them have opened their bank accounts through Jan
Dhan Yojana but hardly had they deposited any of their savings
in them. They prefer to keep their savings at home so that they
can use them at the time of uncertainty. Only 20% of them
deposit their savings in bank accounts.
20
80
prefer to save donot prefer to save
69. Following graph shows percentage of vendors and hawkers
able to withdraw money from bank/ATM.
easily little bit difficulty very much
difficulty
not at all
15
50
40
5
70. 85% of hawkers and vendors face difficulty in using
online mode of payment while 15% of them find out it
easy to use.
85%
15%
difficulty in operation easily operated
71. 70% of vendors are availing online payment services to keep
their business going.
vendors availing online payments
70
72. 55% of vegetable vendors and street vendors had installed
PayTm in their mobile, 30% of them are using card swiping
machines and the one who are not having Smartphone’s i.e.
15% are using *99# service started by our PM for accepting
payment.
PayTm
Card Swiping Machine
*99# service
55
30
15
73. Will Demonetization in India Impact
Your Loan Burden?
Rates are already on the decline
After the demonetization announcement on November 8, Indian banks saw a
rise in deposits.
Banks also saw a rise in term deposit accounts since the demonetization. Due to
these factors, commercial banks sharply reduced their deposit rates.
Loan burden will also fall
Apart from cutting deposit rates, banks reduced their lending rates as well. In
India, loans sanctioned from April 1,2016 are with reference to the MCLR
(Marginal Cost of funds-based Lending Rate: The marginal cost of funds based
lending rate (MCLR) refers to the minimum interest rate of a bank below
which it cannot lend), instead of the Base Rate, which was used earlier.
It will translate into lower interest rates on existing floating rate loans and new
loans.
76. After demonetization weekly sales of hawkers and vendors
decreased up to 70%-80% The main reason for decrease in
their sales was shortage of cash as instead of buying from
vendors and hawkers people preferred to go to modern retail
stores and departmental stores where online payment is
acceptable so that they can make transaction without cash.
Demonetization on other side have some positive aspect too as
on the other hand some vegetable vendors and small traders
have began the use of cashless payments like Paytm, UPI,
Mobiwik, free charge, card swiping etc. as people were unable
to undertake transaction through cash in the absence of Rs
500 and Rs 1000. It has somewhere promoted PM’s cashless
India mission.
