- The document summarizes government spending and debt levels in Canada and its provinces as of November 2016. It finds that only three provinces (British Colombia, Quebec, and Nova Scotia) will show surpluses for 2016, while combined federal and provincial deficits total over $41 billion. It also discusses topics like employment, wages, deficits, debt, GDP growth, internal trade barriers between provinces, and the upcoming negotiations on the federal health accord.

1. GOVERNMENT FISCAL UPDATE
– CANADA AND PROVINCES –
NOVEMBER 2016
BY: PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA

2. OVERVIEW
• This presentation will look at government spending and debt at both the federal and provincial level

3. SUMMARY – CANADA DEFICITS
• Only three provinces will show surpluses – (British Colombia, Quebec and Nova Scotia)
• Combined Federal and Provincial deficits are over $41B
• Today’s Deficits and Debt are tomorrows Taxes and Spending cuts
• Ontario is selling of assets to balance the budget
• Hydro One
• Ontario and Alberta are pushing forward with Carbon Tax
• Carbon Tax make a slow economy even slower
• Federal Liberal are focused on tax and spend
• Federal Liberals are using the same model that Ontario Liberals has used for 13+ years.
Ontario racking up debt faster than any other province; soon to surpass Quebec as most
indebted - Where will that lead the Federal Government?

4. AGENDA
• Employment/Government
• Wages/Government
• Deficit/Surplus/Debt/Equalization/GDP Growth
• Internal Trade Barriers
• Health Accord

5. EMPLOYMENT/GOVERNMENT
Source – Stats Canada

6. WAGES/GOVERNMENT
Source – Stats Canada

7. DEFICIT/DEBT/EQUALIZATION/GDP GROWTH
Source – RBC, TD Economics and https://www.fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-eng.asp#Prince
Analysis/Commentary:
• Ontario and Quebec are 12B+
yet their economy is growing
faster than Saskatchewan and
Alberta
• Quebec will have $2B surplus
in 2015-2016
• Ontario relies on $2.3B from
equalization, but like Quebec
has put up road blocks to the
east-west pipeline

8. INTERNAL PROVINCIAL BARRIERS
• The Atlantic Provinces Economic Council released a report Oct. 24 saying a region with a market six times smaller than Ontario’s can’t
afford barriers in trucking, liquor sales and other sectors. One restaurant owner told the researchers it was easier to purchase wine and
beer internationally than from other Canadian provinces. The study says removing all trade barriers between Canadian provinces could
create gains as high as 3.3% of gross domestic product, while the gains would be more than double that for the Atlantic provinces at 7.6%
of GDP. Source - http://www.plant.ca/general/atlantic-provinces-need-to-shed-trade-regulatory-barriers-study-argues-162913/
• Encourage growth – an act that saw Saskatoon-based Great Western Brewing file a court challenge of its own. Barlow said the protectionist
measures put in place by provinces to protect businesses are harming the Canadian economy as a whole by preventing growth. According
to the Conference Board of Canada, preventing free trade is costing the economy about $15 billion per year, he said. “It would also mean
an additional 780,000 jobs across the country and 78,000 in BC and Alberta alone if we were able to eliminate some of these barriers,” said
Barlow. “When we’re talking about a recession in Alberta where every job counts, if we could just eliminate some of these trade barrier it
could have a pretty profound impact.” Source - http://www.westernwheel.com/article/Breaking-down-Canadian-trade-barriers-20161026
• The report concludes that firms in Atlantic Canada face a small market that is further fragmented by provincial borders and differing
standards and regulations. These barriers increase costs, reduce efficiency, lower revenue and reduce investment. Reducing these barriers
and reforming the regulatory environment has the potential to boost the region’s output, which is especially important given the region’s
economic, demographic and fiscal outlook. Source - http://neia.org/interprovincial-trade-barriers-hurting-atlantic-businesses/

9. HEALTH ACCORD
• Canada transferred $36.1 billion to the provinces for health care this year. A six per cent increase next year would
be $2.2 billion more. A three per cent increase will be $1.1 billion. The previous government announced intentions
to reduce the increase in health transfers to three per cent and the Liberals have taken up that plan. Additional
funds will be available for health care but in targeted ways, such as for home care or mental health. During the
election the Liberals promised to spend $3 billion on home care over four years, money that has yet to materialize.
"Canadians want to see their health care system get better," said Philpott. Developing a new multi-year health
accord with the provinces was the first deliverable assigned to Philpott in her mandate letter in November 2015.
Philpott said when the previous accord was signed it put a lot of money on the table and it was negotiated in good
faith by everyone that "there would be the changes that needed to take place.“ Source -
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/provinces-never-delivered-on-2004-health-accord-philpott-
397515291.html
• The talks come ahead of Tuesday’s meeting with federal Health Minister Jane Philpott, when a frank debate is
expected to play out about the rate of increase on federal health transfers. The federal Liberals plan to apply a
three-per-cent increase in April despite pushback from provinces including B.C., Ontario, Nova Scotia, Manitoba and
Saskatchewan. (FYI – This is same plan Harper introduced - http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/liberals-keeping-harper-
target-for-health-transfers-philpott-1.3086326 ) Source: http://globalnews.ca/news/3006832/provincial-territorial-
health-ministers-to-meet-in-toronto-before-health-accord-talks/