This presentation discusses issues facing Canada's economy

1. CANADA SLOW
GROWTH – WHAT
NEEDS TO HAPPEN?
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
Date: December 11, 2018

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. INTRODUCTION
• This presentation will discuss issues facing the Canadian economy as it heads for
slower economic growth.

4. AGENDA
Slow Economic Growth
GDP Rates / Slow Growth
GDP by Segments
Employment
Careers
What are the next types of
businesses?
How does the government
support new businesses?
Training and Skills
development
Exports
Value of Exports
What can be done to expand
exports?
Retail Sales
Value of Exports
What can be done to expand
exports?
Housing Market
Housing Market Analysis
What can be done?
Government Spending
Housing Market Analysis
What can be done?

5. SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH
• Liberal Economic Council – Key Quotes “The global expert who heads the Trudeau
government’s economic advisory council has offered a glimpse into the group’s
brainstorming sessions on how best to lift Canada’s drooping growth prospects.
Dominic Barton shared details of the team’s focal points during his appearance this
week at a public policy summit in Ottawa. They include easing immigration rules to
attract more talent, retraining swaths of the workforce to adjust to the rapid rise in
automation and creating what he calls the world’s first infrastructure agency
designed to rake in private and foreign capital. Source:
http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/regulation/trudeaus-economic-guru-
offers-sneak-peak-on-reviving-growth-177211/

6. SLOW GROWTH
• Growth is measure by change in GDP. Canada has been experiencing slow growth
for over 12+ years. http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/forecast.pdf
• You will see based on BNS Analysis
Source – Scotiabank
Factors impacting Growth
• Commodity Prices
• Consumer Demand
• Exports
• Demographics
• Government Policies

7. CANADA GDP BY SEGMENT
Source – Stats Canada
GDP Analysis
• Approximately 30% of GDP
is good producing
• Approximately 70% of GDP
is the service sector
How do you grow GDP?
• Opening new markets (Exports)
• Innovation/R&D to support next
generation of businesses
• Government policies related to
consumer spending

8. WHAT ARE
THE NEXT
TYPES OF
BUSINESSES
3-D Printing Energy Storage Expert Farming
Microgrids Digital media Virtual Reality
Pre-fab housing Drones Driver-less cars
eCommerce
Source -
http://www.slideshare.n
et/paulyoungcga/2016
-employment-outlook-
canada or
https://www.slideshare.
net/paulyoungcga/top-
predictions-2019 or

9. HOW DOES THE GOVERNMENT CREATE
POLICIES TO SUPPORT NEXT
GENERATION OF BUSINESS
• Cultivate innovation
• Focusing on private and public partnership through creation innovation centers at all
Colleges and Universities across Canada
• Continue to promote tax programs, like R&D Tax Credits or Stock Options or cuts to EI
for small to medium size business
• Continue to look at programs like SDTC or Next Generation Biofuels or Industry specific
funds
• Partnering with all levels of government to cut down red tape and regulation to help
businesses spend more time growing their business.
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canadian-manufacturing-analysis-
including-trends-and-assessment-of-government-policies

10. REVAMPING EDUCATION
Education systems needs to be align
with needs of business
Provincial government need to
the apprenticeship programs as part
opening up the skills trades to more
individuals
Tax Policies
Hiring credits and/or other training credits should
be promoted as part of assisting companies with
development of their employees
Source:
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/governme
nt-policies-education-skills-development-canada-
october-2-2016

11. EXPORTS
Source – Stats Canada
Analysis:
• Canada exports account for about 25% of GDP. Canada is export driven country.
• For each $1B in exports there is 5,500 indirect/direct jobs created
• Goods producing jobs pay on average $350/week as compare to service sector jobs -
Sources: http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wages-and-employment-canada-
july-2016

12. EMPLOYMENT
• Goods producing jobs lag service sector jobs
• The federal government wants to bump up immigration. The economy on average is producing
approximately 217,000 jobs per year.

13. LIBERALS / MIDDLE CLASS
Source - https://www.liberal.ca/trudeau-unveils-liberal-platform-for-a-strong-middle-class/
“Stephen Harper wants
us to think that if it
weren’t for him, our
economy would fall
apart. But Canada’s
economy doesn’t depend
on him. It depends on
Canadians. It depends on
the people I meet all
across this country,
every single day,” said
Mr. Trudeau. “People
want economic growth,
good jobs, and more
money in their pockets.
They want to see their
voices and values
represented in Ottawa.
Canadians want a better
government, not just a
different one. It’s time for
real change, and that is
exactly what the Liberal
Liberal 2015
GDP by PM
Wage Growth by Year

14. TOP CAREERS / CANADA
Source - http://globalnews.ca/news/2944692/the-top-eight-careers-of-the-
future-in-canada/ or https://www.trade-schools.net/ca/articles/careers-in-
demand.asp
Risks
• Healthcare funding –
Provinces are
strapped for cash
• Education funding –
declining enrolment
• Residential/non-
residential
investment has been
sluggish
1. Registered Nurse
2. Truck Driver
3. College or Vocational Instructor
4. Business Management Consultant
5. Welder
6. Licensed Practical Nurse
7. Occupational or Physiotherapy Assistant
8. Software Engineer or Designer
9. Aerospace Engineer
10. Industrial Electrician
11. Aircraft Pilot
12. Pharmacist
13. Psychologist
14. Steamfitter or Pipefitter
15. Construction Estimator
16. Veterinary Technician or Assistant
17. Dispensing Optician

15. WHAT CAN
BE DONE TO
SUPPORT
EXPORTS
Investment in infrastructure that supports moving goods to
market (Bridges, ports, roads)
More Trade Agreements and FIPA Deals – FYI – Trade Deals
to be fair deals
Cutting red and regulation down as part getting projects off
the ground (mines, pipelines, food processing plants, etc.
Provincial Policies
Approval of Natural Resource
projects
Controlling growth in Hydro Rates
Reducing red tape and regulations
Tax policies
Ensure Canada has competitive tax
policies with the rest of the world
Encouraging more investment in
capital assets by keeping the CCA
rules for the write-down of
machinery and equipment

16. RETAIL SALES
Areas of focus: Retail sales are
approximately $540B and
growing at about rate of
1.5% to 2.2%
Retail market is going
through changes with more
and more adoption of
eCommerce
Retail Market is influence by
taxation (Duties, Tariffs,
carbon taxation, etc.)
Source: Stats Canada /
http://www.slideshare.net/pa
ulyoungcga/canada-retail-
sales-for-july-2016

17. WHAT CAN BE
DONE TO
SUPPORT RETAIL
SALES
Reduction of Tariffs
and Duties (USA vs
Canadian Pricing)
No increases to sales
taxes (Provincial or
GST)
Towing the line when
it comes to payroll
tax increases
Capping growth in
hydro rates
Reducing red tape
and regulations
Promote local buying

18. HOUSING
MARKET
Issues:
Housing prices on average have been growing at rate of 8% for the
past few years. The 8% growth rate is higher than wage growth and
GDP growth
Housing prices are not sustainable as income growth has stagnated
Foreign ownership of property has increase the speculation and push
up prices
Ridiculous bids and asks for housing
No Integrated strategy when it comes to the housing market
(Provinces, Municipalities, Federal Government and the Private Sector
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/real-estate-trends-
and-analysis-for-canada-august-2016

19. GOVERNMENT
SPENDING/DEFICITS
Issues:
Slow economic growth leads to pressure on
government revenues
Today’s deficit and Debt are tomorrow hike in taxation
or spending cut
Government needs to be transformed including more
value for money as well as balance budget laws.

20. HOW DO
GOVERNMENT
DEFICITS AND
DEBT
INFLUENCE
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
High government deficit
may force government into
making cuts to program
spending.
Companies do not like to
invest in countries due to
possibilities of taxes will be
increased
Raising taxes does not
grow an economy.
Https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=hWarBMfshaA
Sources:
http://www.slideshare.net/p
aulyoungcga/what-does-
government-deficits-and-
debt-mean-to-youppt

21. SUMMARY
The economic council
is a good idea as it
brings new ideas to a
government . Will the
government
implement their
suggestions?
There is no easy
solution to fixed slow
growth as there many
pieces of the puzzle
Adding more
regulations will not
support economic
growth – i.e. C69 -
https://www.capp.ca/
publications-and-
statistics/publications
/326232?utm_source
=Facebook&utm_me
dium=Social
Canada needs to
become more
competitive -
https://www.slideshar
e.net/paulyoungcga/
business-
competitiveness-
canada
Government cannot
do tax increases and
then expect business
can absorb those new
taxes. In the end the
business will pass
those costs on to the
consumers -
http://www.slideshare
.net/paulyoungcga/h
ow-do-corporate-
profits-flow or
http://www.slideshare
.net/paulyoungcga/w
Era of using
Keynesian economics
to support economic
growth are done -
https://www.forbes.co
m/sites/peterferrara/2
012/07/12/obamano
mics-the-final-nail-in-
the-discredited-
keynesian-
coffin/#53f9c93cba7d