Here is a look at what needs to happen as part of the Post-COVID19

1. Post-Pandemic – Canada –
2020 and beyond
PAUL YOUNG CPA CGA
MAY 2, 2020

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Agenda
 GDP / January 2020
 Government
 Stock Market
 Household Debt
 Farm Incomes / 2019
 Affordability / February 2020
 Merchandise Trade / February 2020
 Job Losses / March 2020
 Government Stimulus
 Provinces / re-opening
 Healthcare
 WHO
 China and transparency
 Reforming government
 Additional Sources – Training and Development

4. Transforming
government
 All levels of government will need to be
transformed
 Areas of focus
 Fiscal management
 Crisis and Risk Management
 Compensation management
 Urban planning
 Economic development
 Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-
management-provinces-canada or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-
for-municipal-government

5. Government
 All levels of government need to undertake a
fiscal cycle management review
 All levels of governments need to have audit risk
and crisis management reports -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-
management-how-best-to-managed-a-crisis
 All levels of government must follow performance
and operational audits as part of fixing any issues
with public policy (value for money/program
spending, efficient and effective use of resources,
tax fairness, etc.
 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-
management-provinces-canada or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-
management-united-states-individual-states-
performance or

6. GDP / January 2020
Source – BMO, RBC, TD Economics, Government of Canada and Scotiabank
GDP
Avg
1993 to
2000
3.8%
GDP
Avg
2001 to
2005
2.5%
GDP
Avg
2006 to
2008
1.9%
GDP
2009
Recession
-2.7%
GDP
2010 to
2015
2.3%
GDP
2016 to
2019
2.0%
Pandemic
Covid19
-4.1
GDP
2021 to
2023
2.8%
GDP 1993 to 2023 – 2.3%
GDP 2001 to 2023 – 1.8%

7. Farm Incomes
 Carbon Tax / Farm Incomes “An organization representing
agricultural producers in Saskatchewan says the federal carbon
tax could eat up to 12 per cent of a farmer’s net income by
2022.” https://globalnews.ca/news/6500544/farm-income-
carbon-tax-saskatchewan-agricluture/
 Farm Income / 2018 –” The realized net farm income of
agricultural producers fell 45.1% in 2018 to $3.9 billion, the
largest percentage decrease since 2006. This followed a 2.8%
decline in 2017. Realized net income is the difference between
a farmer's cash receipts and operating expenses, minus
depreciation, plus income in kind. Rising feed, interest and labor
costs together with little change in farm cash receipts pushed
realized net farm income lower. Realized net income fell in
every province except New Brunswick (+7.2%) where an
increase in cannabis and potato production boosted receipts.
More than one-third of the national decrease was attributable
to a 68.1% decline in Alberta. ” -
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-
quotidien/190528/dq190528a-eng.htm

8. Stock Market
Source – BMO and TSX

9. Household
Debt
Household debt slightly decline
4Q20 - Household debt as a
proportion of disposable income
ticked down from 176.6% in the third
quarter to 176.3% in Q4, the agency
reported.
At the same time, the household
debt service ratio — which
represents payments of principal and
interest as a proportion of household
disposable income — rose to 14.98%,
StatsCan said. Debt payments grew
by 6.9% in 2019, while disposable
income rose by 4.9%. – Source -
https://www.advisor.ca/news/econo
mic/household-debt-remains-
elevated-service-ratio-rises-statscan/

10. Affordability

11. Merchandise Trade / February 2020
• Trade to China has been impacted by COVID19
• Canada trade has struggle despite new deals like TPP, revised NAFTA and CETA
• Aircraft exports expanded – COVID will have impact as travel restrictions were imposed in March 2020 -
https://importersnetwork.ca/news/imports/canadian-international-merchandise-trade-february-2020
• Energy seen a steep drop of in terms of pricing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-
of-oil-to-the-global-economy

12. March 2020/Employment numbers
• More job losses are expected in March 2020 as more of the economy is shutdown due to COVID19
• Many jobs are not coming back. There could be estimated permanent loss of 500K as businesses either
shutdown or restructure how they operate (i.e. eCommerce, automation, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/technology-whats-next-for-canada

13. Government
Stimulus
 Private Sector
 Loan deferrals
 Mortgages
 Federal Government
 Wage Subsidies
 GST tax credits
 Child tax benefit
 Loans to businesses
 Rent Subsidies
 Additional programs for other sectors of the
economy (TBA)
 Additional wage support (TBA)

14. Carbon Tax
 The federal government increase the carbon tax by 50%
 https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/april-1-in-canada-
federal-carbon-tax-jumps-50-and-mps-salaries-grow-2-1
 Trudeau says people get more back, but the reality
Trudeau is not taking in account the costs pass
through the supply chain -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/truth-
about-emissions-and-carbon-pricing
 Trudeau is using the pandemic to push Agenda 2030
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
and-agenda-2030-justin-trudeau-end-state-for-
canada
 Provinces have said little as provinces could be delay
and/or in some cases deny federal funding if they do
not support the carbon tax -
https://ipolitics.ca/2020/04/09/morneau-provinces-
must-apply-climate-lens-to-covid-19-recovery-
efforts/?fbclid=IwAR0hddQ9r4aIh43upNgLRJfRT9xMQ
Dxem0Ov5_pc9NgU0VV9UA0r1CTfJ4Y

15. Garth Turner / GDP
Source - https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/04/09/this-is-
tough/?fbclid=IwAR1yVes6kmI6MMKtyy_oSe2c4PUywr3prqYABPCR2tA-YZOXqEnOauy_FQk
• Here are concerns
• The government needs to watch their debt ratio -
https://nationalpost.com/news/covid-19-federal-deficit-
projected-to-reach-184b-as-economic-response-rolled-out
• People have debt obligations that cannot be fixed with one of
policies. The best way to help people is to provide the
conditions that will encourage FDI -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fdi-foriegn-direct-
investment-Canada
• There has been a job quality issue for more than 30 years. Job
quality has worse over the past 4+ years -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/social-spending-
and-tax-fairness-197908290
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/job-quality-
canada-vs-usa
• Trudeau team never had the balance between economy and
the environment
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-
growth-and-the-major-issues-facing-global-gdp
• Govt may push for guarantee income –
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/guarantee-
income-and-ei-support-analysis-and-commentary
• Finland tried Guarantee Income as such it was a
failure

16. Provinces / Re-
opening
 There is going to need to be gradual phase in when it comes to re-
opening the economy
 Procurement of medical supplies -
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/calling-all-suppliers-help-canada-
combat-covid-19 - There needs to be a made in North America
solution as part ensuring quality control meets Health Canada
standard
 Social distancing needs to be adhere too -
https://www.live5news.com/2020/04/21/lowcountry-retail-
businesses-reopen-under-strict-social-distancing-rules/
 Keeping the border close to international travel -
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/04/19/us-
and-canada-agree-to-extend-border-closure-for-non-essential-
travel/
 Tight restrictions on China
 No travel to/from China
 All Chinese goods should be quarantine for 14 days
 No sale of assets and/or debt to China -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wiil-china-
become-more-open-and-transparent

17. Healthcare
 Funding for assisted living and healthcare -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retirem
ent-and-assistant-living-canada-issues-and-what-
needs-to-be-done
 Continue work with pharma on vaccines and
treatments
 https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/big-
pharma-improve-reputation-covid-19-response/
 Steps should be taken to protect the most
vulnerable
 Isolation
 Masks / testing
 Treatments

18. Reforming the
WHO
The UN and its various agencies need to be more
accountable including performance audits. All
funding should be tied to performance audits and
operation audits (Value for Money)
 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-
the-united-nations-and-its-agencies-like-who-
need-to-be-reformed

19. China and
transparency  China favorable status needs to be review, i.e. WTO,
International Law, etc.
 China needs to be more open and transparent
 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wiil-china-
become-more-open-and-transparent

20. Training and
Development
 If you like to learn more about
trade and/or other subjects as
part of your professional
learning and development
then feel free to review my
material on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA CGA)
 These subjects address how to
fixed issues with housing
and/or systemic issues related
to economy including
government policies

21. What
needs to
help
support
the
economy
 Many businesses will like restructured and/or shutdown due to loss of income - https://www.cfo.com/bankruptcy/2020/04/the-
restructuring-remedy/?utm_campaign=CFODailyAlert&utm_nooverride=1&utm_source=CFO-
email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=CFODailyAlert_Thursday_2020-4-9&utm_term=bankruptcy
 500K jobs will like never come back
 All levels of government will need to focus on economic development strategy
 Emphasis on infrastructure spending - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-infrastructure-and-transit
 Reforming the size of government, i.e. value for money and performance audits -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-of-value-for-money-and-perfomance-based-audits
 Skills Trades - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-human-capital-and-skills-management-canada-
september-2019
 Reforming tax and regulations to support goods producing sector - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-
going-on-with-canadas-competitiveness
 Emphasis on natural resources and food processing sector - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-of-natural-
resources-sector-canada and https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agriculture-and-farming-sector-whats-next
 Development of rural strategy as part of encouraging people to move to rural areas -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-rural-areas-and-affairs-canada
 Eliminating the carbon tax and focusing on more balance between the environment and the economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/truth-about-emissions-carbon-taxes-and-climate-change
 Re-focusing on manufacturing
 Drug/medical supplies and other products should be made locally - https://www.industryweek.com/the-
economy/competitiveness/article/21965621/the-drivers-of-manufacturing-reshoring
 Encouraging manufacturing back to Canada,
 Medical supplies and equipment
 Consumer products/devices
 3-D printing / Automation
 Technology will help support the recovery - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/technology-whats-
next-for-canada
 Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-canadas-manufacturing-sector