This presentation will look at how Canada's economy is performing when it comes to exports, retail sales, housing prices, employment and wages.

1. Canada 3Q16 Economic
Scorecard
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA

2. Overview
• This presentation will look at the economic trends as part of assessing the
Government Canada economic policies

3. Agenda
• GDP Growth
• Manufacturing Sales
• Employment
• Wages
• Housing Prices
• Retail Sales

4. GDP Growth
Source – Scotiabank
• Economic GDP has been downgraded many times during
2016
• Canada will lag behind United States and United Kingdom
in terms of GDP Growth
• The impact of the stimulus has had no real impact on the
economy
• Key quote “In our surveys, companies have mentioned a
number of factors that can influence competitiveness or
hinder exports directly. These include deficient
infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, rising trade barriers,
relatively high electricity costs, and the unknown status of
current and future trade agreements,” says Poloz” source -
http://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/columnists/gary-
lamphier-tepid-economic-growth-to-slow-even-further-
says-bank-of-canada:

5. Manufacturing Sales
• Transportation sales are closed to 9B for
2016)
• Forestry sales are led by a strong
domestic and international demand for
lumber (Housing starts)
• Oil is off close 10B in 2016
• Manufacturing sales is flat with 2015
Issues:
• Softwood dispute has not be resolved
• Slower retail sales led by lower demand
for autos
• Manufactures are under cost pressure
due to hydro costs, regulatory burden
and access to market.
Source – Stats Canada

6. Employment
Source – Stats Canada
Key Comments:
• Goods producing has 99K less jobs then it had October 2015
• Healthcare jobs have increase. Caution: Healthcare related
jobs are driven by government spending on healthcare
• Retail sector has lost 18K jobs since October 2016 Key
Quote “ Young people reacted to the comments by
heckling Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a youth
labour forum this week. They’re right to be angry.
Temporary work is second-class employment.
According to recent Statistics Canada numbers, temp
workers earn roughly 75 per cent of what permanent
employees do. The median weekly wage of permanent
workers aged 25 to 54 in September was $962, while
temporary workers earned $720. Source :
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-
finance/genymoney/why-morneau-needs-to-be-less-
accepting-of-temporary-work/article32543380/”

7. Wages
Source – Stats Canada
• Wages are under pressure in Manufacturing
• Retail/Wholesale wages have grown due to more focus
on distribution, i.e. eCommerce – Note – Stats Canada
decided last fall to combined retail sales data with
Wholesale. Wholesale/Warehouse tend to pay more
than retail sales clerk
• Government wages may reflect arbitration settlements.
• Key Quote “In response to widespread uncertainty
about Canada’s economic climate and business
conditions, organizations are planning cautious salary
increases for 2017. The Conference Board of
Canada’s Compensation Planning Outlook
2017 projects average base increases for non-unionized
employees to be 2.2 per cent next year, with the lowest
increases going to workers in Alberta and in the oil and
gas industry.Source -
http://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/newsrelease/1
6-10-
26/canadian_workers_in_for_another_year_of_modes
t_salary_gains_amid_slow_economic_growth.aspx

8. Housing Prices
Source – Scotiabank
According to the report, Canadian detached single family house
prices are expected to increase by nine per cent this year, and by 2.9
per cent annually over the next five years. Meanwhile, condominium
prices are forecast to grow by 4.6 per cent this year, and 2.2 per
cent per annum over the next five years.
Moody's does caution that some metropolitan areas will see "modest"
near-term price declines. Prices in Edmonton are expected to trend
slightly lower, despite an expected rise in oil prices. Saskatchewan and
Newfoundland housing markets are in for "a rough two years,"
Moody's said, citing a combination of overvaluation and slow
projected economic growth.
• Source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-prices-
moodys-1.3810209

9. Retail Sales
Source – Stats Canada
• Retail sales have been sluggish
since February 2016
• The tax cuts and changes to
family tax benefit payments
have had little impact on retail
sales
• Family budgets are under
pressure due hydro rates,
carbon tax (BC) as well as other
taxes

10. Summary
• Canada’s economy is still struggling with sluggish growth
• Employment has seen more part-time jobs than full-time created in 2016
• Housing prices continue to grow faster than wage growth, inflation and GDP
• More and more countries are imposing more protectionism policies. Exports are about $520B or about ¼ of GDP. Canada
depends on exports as part of driving the Canadian economy. Lower exports will impact the tax revenue collected by the
government
• Government has approved a major pipeline. There are more pipelines/projects waiting for approval. Delay in approving
projects could influence future FDI
• Infrastructure spending funding has been slowed.
• Liberal government has decided to impose carbon taxation on all provinces
• Imposing carbon taxation/price for carbon could have the following impact
• Lead to slower growth as it will increase costs of goods for consumer by about 6-9% or about $2,500 to family budget -
http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-carbon-tax-or-a-price-for-carbon
• Make exports more expensive. Many Canada largest trading partners like the United States do not have carbon taxation/price for carbon.