There is allot of misconceptions when it comes to federal transfer to the province. This presentation will walk you through the various transfers

1. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
TRANSFERS TO PROVINCES
AND PROGRAM SPENDING –
ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY
Author: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
Date: June 2019

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. INTRODUCTION
 There is allot of misconceptions when it comes to federal transfer to the
province. This presentation will walk you through the various transfers.

4. AGENDA
 Federal Transfers to the Provinces
 Fiscal Management / Federal Government
 Equalization
 Capital Spending

5. GOVERNMENT TRANSFERS AND GDP
• Liberals honor the CPC agreement of tying transfers to GDP -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/provinces-get-their-cash-but-do-we-get-better-
health-care/article34283737/

6. TRUDEAU / TRANSFERS
 Federal and provincial health ministers emerged from a day of tense talks in Toronto still at
odds over the federal government's planned cut to the annual increase in federal funding for
health care.
 Next year the Canada Health Transfer, the amount of money the federal government gives the
provinces each year to pay for health care, will stop increasing by six per cent and instead will only
increase by three per cent.
 Quebec Health Minister Gaétan Barrette said the single "concrete" takeaway from the meeting is
that the federal government is cutting health-care funding and forcing the provinces and
territories to make tough choices.
 "For today we know there will be a cut of $60 billion of funding from the federal government over
the next 10 years," Barrette said.
 "That means all provinces and territories must make difficult choices because we are being asked
to do more with less. And on top of that we are being told what to do. So I don't think this is the
end of the story.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/canada/1407726-baloney-meter-is-the-federal-government-cutting-health-
transfers-to-provinces or http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-health-funding-philpott-provincial-
ministers-1.3810576

7. COMMENTS BY ONTARIO / HOSKINS
 Healthcare Waste
 Hoskins comments “"So to put that in context," Hoskins said, "Ontario stands to gain in home and
community care [with] the $3-billion commitment made by the federal government, to the tune of probably
$250 million next year, roughly, but we will lose approximately $400 million if the federal government goes
through with their position that the [health transfer] will be limited to three per cent. He also said many of
the ministers took offence at Philpott's suggestion that federal funds earmarked for health care went into
general revenues without certainty it was being spent on health services.”
 Comments
 Auditor-General eHealth - https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/10/13/liberals-scramble-to-get-ehealth-appraised-
before-ag-weighs-in.html “A 2009 auditor general’s report found $1 billion had been spent on eHealth and its predecessor
with little to show for it at that point in time. Then in 2012, the legislative watchdog found that $24.4 million was spent on an
electronic registry of diabetes patients that was unceremoniously scrapped before it was up and running.
 LHINs - http://ochuleftwords.blogspot.ca/2015/12/37-health-care-findings-by-auditor.html
 So, Where is the Minister of Health on delivery of Healthcare dollars
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-health-funding-philpott-provincial-ministers-1.3810576

8. HEALTHCARE

9. TRUDEAU / TRANSFERS
 Federal and provincial health ministers emerged from a day of tense talks in Toronto still at
odds over the federal government's planned cut to the annual increase in federal funding for
health care.
 Next year the Canada Health Transfer, the amount of money the federal government gives the
provinces each year to pay for health care, will stop increasing by six per cent and instead will only
increase by three per cent.
 Quebec Health Minister Gaétan Barrette said the single "concrete" takeaway from the meeting is
that the federal government is cutting health-care funding and forcing the provinces and
territories to make tough choices.
 "For today we know there will be a cut of $60 billion of funding from the federal government over
the next 10 years," Barrette said.
 "That means all provinces and territories must make difficult choices because we are being asked
to do more with less. And on top of that we are being told what to do. So I don't think this is the
end of the story.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/canada/1407726-baloney-meter-is-the-federal-government-cutting-health-
transfers-to-provinces or http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-health-funding-philpott-provincial-
ministers-1.3810576

10. COMMENTS BY ONTARIO / HOSKINS
 Healthcare Waste
 Hoskins comments “"So to put that in context," Hoskins said, "Ontario stands to gain in home and
community care [with] the $3-billion commitment made by the federal government, to the tune of probably
$250 million next year, roughly, but we will lose approximately $400 million if the federal government goes
through with their position that the [health transfer] will be limited to three per cent. He also said many of
the ministers took offence at Philpott's suggestion that federal funds earmarked for health care went into
general revenues without certainty it was being spent on health services.”
 Comments
 Auditor-General eHealth - https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/10/13/liberals-scramble-to-get-ehealth-appraised-
before-ag-weighs-in.html “A 2009 auditor general’s report found $1 billion had been spent on eHealth and its predecessor
with little to show for it at that point in time. Then in 2012, the legislative watchdog found that $24.4 million was spent on an
electronic registry of diabetes patients that was unceremoniously scrapped before it was up and running.
 LHINs - http://ochuleftwords.blogspot.ca/2015/12/37-health-care-findings-by-auditor.html
 So, Where is the Minister of Health on delivery of Healthcare dollars
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-health-funding-philpott-provincial-ministers-1.3810576

11. HEALTHCARE

22. EDUCATION

23. 2009-2010

24. 2009-2010

25. 2009-2010

26. 2009-2010

27. PROGRAM SPENDING

28. POST STIMULUS TRENDS

29. POST STIMULUS TRENDS

30. DEFICITS AND SPENDING TRENDS

31. STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS

32. HARPER AND TRUDEAU (SMALL DEFICITS)
 http://www.torontosun.com/2016/11/02/harper-right-about-trudeaus-deficits

33. STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
 Government of Canada (actual report – does not include restatements may in 2018 for pensions reporting.

34. BUDGET SURPLUS / NOVEMBER 2015
 Government of Canada

35. FY – 2015 TO 2016
 Government of Canada

36. TRUDEAU / CPC DEFICIT
 Martin is was wrong with his comment. From 1993-2002 when Martin was in power there were cuts to transfers, money taking from EI, etc.
There was also stronger growth due to hype of the baby boomers spending. Martin never faced global pressures like there is today.
 Small deficits became large deficit and yet the GDP growth rate was on par with the past 18 + years
CBC News – June 27, 2017

37. REFUGEE / COST – UNBUDGETED - $365M
 http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2016/11/22/bringing-25000-syrian-refugees-to-canada-cost-
385m/
The Conservatives pledge that if re-elected, they will allow a further 10,000
Syrians in over the next four years, continuing a focus on those being persecuted
because of religion. (This works out to be 2,500 as compare to liberals plan of
25,000. The budget never reflected 22,500 new refugees.

38. EQUALIZATION

39. EQUALIZATION
Source: Government of Canada
• Equalization entitlements are determined by measuring provinces' ability to
raise revenues – known as "fiscal capacity". Before any adjustments, a
province's per capita Equalization entitlement is equal to the amount by which
its fiscal capacity is below the average fiscal capacity of all provinces – known
as the "10 province standard".
• Provinces get the greater of the amount they would receive by fully excluding
natural resource revenues, or by excluding 50 per cent of natural resource
revenues.
• Equalization is adjusted to ensure fairness among provinces while continuing to
provide a net fiscal benefit to receiving provinces from their resources
equivalent to half of their per capita resource revenues.
• Equalization is also adjusted to keep the total program payout growing in line
with the economy. The growth path is based on a three-year moving average
of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. This helps to ensure stability and
predictability while still being responsive to economic growth. The program
also maintains the benefits of the Atlantic Accords for Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland and Labrador. In 2007, the two provinces were given the choice
to continue to operate under the previous Equalization system or to
permanently opt into the new program at any point prior to the expiry of the
offshore accords. Having chosen the new program, Nova Scotia benefits from
a guarantee that it will do at least as well, on a cumulative basis, as it would
have under the formula agreed to at the time the Accord was
signed. Newfoundland and Labrador no longer qualifies for Equalization.

40. EQUALIZATION COMMENTS
• Finance Minister Cathy Bennett said Thursday she is disappointed Quebec asked the federal government to not
extend a loan guarantee for her province’s Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project. Bennett says Quebec just
announced it would post a surplus of $2.2 billion in the 2015-16 fiscal year while receiving $10 billion in
equalization payments. Bennett told reporters Newfoundland and Labrador will face a $1.6-billion shortfall this
fiscal year and is scheduled to receive nothing in equalization. http://www.thetelegram.com/Business/2016-10-
27/article-4673603/Newfoundland-and-Labrador-reminds-Quebec-about-Canadian-values-on-hydro-project/1
• Quote “A toast to Bernard Hancock of Fort McMurray (an oil rig worker who spoke on Parliament Hill). Good on
you! You said it better than the politicians and even the energy sector. You delivered where it should count –
Parliament. Do we have a confederation or not? In Montreal and the East, refineries (40 per cent) live on blood
oil from the Gulf states and Venezuela. Tankers are fine on the East Coast and St. Lawrence. You’d rather have
that than a pipeline and Western Canadian oil. That’s really safe! OK, fine. From now on for every year of delay
on the Energy East pipeline, the West cancels a year of transfer equalization payments. Prime Minister Trudeau,
you decide. Do we have a confederation or not?” Source – http://lethbridgeherald.com/commentary/letters-
to-the-editor/2016/10/18/do-we-have-a-confederation-or-not/

41. INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING

42. GAS TAX FUND

43. BUILD CANADA FUND

44. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON
INFRASTRUCTURE

45. BLOG – CAPITAL INVESTMENT
@JustinTrudeau
“Premier Doug Ford’s government has yet to say on which projects, including
transit, it wants to partner with Ottawa.”
How come the gas transfers are down nearly 9% YTD January 2019? It seems to
me that it is your govt holding money back as part of your re-election
campaign?
How many loans has the Infrastructure bank provided? The only loan is to
Montreal Transit, right? https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/infrastructure-bank-
montreal-metro-rail-loan-1.4794751
BTW:
It has been your govt that has slow infrastructure money to a crawl since you
took office. I suggest you own this issue, but you won’t because you never own
anything when it comes to your failures!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/infrastructure-and-business-
investment-canada-analysis
How so? It seems more spin by MSM to attack
@fordnation
Harper worked much better with all levels of govts to
get projects out the door. Trudeau only goal is buying
votes as such seems to hand money out as part of
winning the election!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/infrastructu
re-and-capital-investment-canada-march-2019
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-
ontario-demands-money-for-ontario-line-subway-but-
provides-no-
new/?fbclid=IwAR2pyEUP0hqTx_AaAiBsUlpjfnxE5mMU
9yT3PrD-BubzGrrLtgCkMvU5wJ8
BTW: There has been like one loan to Montreal Transit
from the Infrastructure Bank, why?
June 2019
Trudeau is playing games for votes!