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The Effects of Term Limits
1. The Effects of Term Limits
Karl Kurtz
National Conference of State Legislatures
2. Term Limit Provisions
Limit in Years Consecutive Limit Lifetime Limit
6 House/8 Senate AR, MI
8 Total NE
8 House/8 Senate AZ, CO, FL, ME, MT,
OH, SD
MO
12 Total CA, OK
12 House/12 Senate LA NV
3. Turnover and Term Limits:
Membership Change in Houses
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1968 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 10
percent
House Turnover in Term-Limited and Non-Term-Limited States
TL States
NTL States
Source: Gary Moncrief, Richard G. Niemi and Lynda W. Powell, "Turnover in State Legislatures: An Update,"
Western Political Science Association, March 22-25, 2008
Term limit
enactment
period
4. The Experience Gap
Percent of Members in Each Chamber With at Least Five
Years Experience at Start of Next Session
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
6-yr TL 8-yr TL No TL
Source: Gary Moncrief, Richard G. Niemi and Lynda W. Powell, "Turnover in State Legislatures: An Update,"
Western Political Science Association, March 22-25, 2008
5. The “Burkean Shift”
0 1 2 3 4
Talk to constituents
Solve constituent problems
Seek district projects
Send mailings
NTL States
TL States
“Legislators today compared to a decade ago…
Scale: 1 (Much less time) to 5 (Much more time)
6. Legislators’ Knowledge
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Statewide issues
Process
Committee issues
NTL States
TL States
“Legislators today compared to a decade ago…
Scale: 1 (Much less knowledgeable) to 5 (Much more knowledgeable)
7. House to Senate Movement
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
6-8 yr. TL
12-yr. TL
NTL
8. Experience of House Speakers in TL
Legislatures
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
AZ AR CA CO ME OH Avg.
Averageyearsofservice
3 Pre-TL Spkrs
Post-TL Spkrs
Source: Joint Project on Term Limits
9. Power Shifts over 10 Yrs.
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
AZ AR CA CO ME OH IL IN KS
Governor Agencies
TL States Control States
Score of Zero Indicates “about the same.”
ExecutiveGainsLegislativeGains
Source: JPTL Knowledgeable Observer Survey, 2003
10. Summary: Effects of Term Limits
• Vary depending on type of legislature
• Loss of experienced legislators
– Less knowledge of substantive issues
– Less institutional knowledge
– More chaotic legislatures
• No effect on who is elected
• Less attention to constituents
• Senates have more experience
• Governors gained power
11. Limits on Leaders’ Terms
Years By Custom By Rule By Statute
2 Florida House
Florida Senate
North Dakota House
South Dakota House
Wyoming House
Arkansas Senate
Wyoming Senate
4 Kansas House
Kansas Senate
Oklahoma House
6 Connecticut House Maine House
Maine Senate
8 Massachusetts House
Massachusetts Senate