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The 2014 Simon Poll - Voter Opinions on Term Limits in Illinois
- 1. The 2014 Simon Poll: Voter Opinions on Term Limits in Illinois Charlie Leonard, Visiting Professor Union League Club of Chicago April 7, 2014
- 2. 2014 Simon Poll • 1,001 Live interviews, registered voters • 20-min. interview; Proportional across Illinois • Conducted Feb. 12 – 25; 30% Cell phones • Margin for error ± 3.5 percentage points • Phoning: Customer Research International - San Marcos, Texas - No Illinois political clients - Paid with Institute endowment
- 3. Widely and Consistently Popular • No matter how you phrase the question • No matter what group you ask • Support consistent over time
- 5. Legislative Term Limit Time Series
- 7. Leadership Term Limit Time Series
- 8. Strong Support in Every Subgroup The Ones You Might Expect • Republicans – 89.8% • Chicago suburbs - 80.6% • Private sector – 80.7% • Conservatives - 83.4%
- 9. Strong Support in Every Subgroup The Ones You Might Expect • Republicans – 89.8% • Chicago suburbs - 80.6% • Private sector – 80.7% • Conservatives - 83.4% The Ones You Might Not • Democrats – 74.0% • Chicago – 73.3% • Public sector – 79.7% • Liberals – 76.0%
- 10. Strong Support in Every Subgroup The Ones You Might Expect • Republicans – 89.8% • Chicago suburbs - 80.6% • Private sector – 80.7% • Conservatives - 83.4% The Ones You Might Not • Democrats – 74.0% • Chicago – 73.3% • Public sector – 79.7% • Liberals – 76.0% Opposition Highest Among • Blacks – 26.7% • Democrats – 22.6% • Chicago – 21.5% • Liberals – 20.0%
- 11. Arguments in favor of Term Limits Term limits make elected officials more responsive • 71% Agree; 24% Disagree
- 12. Arguments in favor of Term Limits Term limits make elected officials more responsive • 71% Agree; 24% Disagree Term limits bring new people with fresh ideas • 83% Agree; 14% Disagree
- 13. Arguments against Term Limits Term limits don’t give elected officials enough time to develop expertise • 28% Agree; 68% Disagree
- 14. Arguments against Term Limits Term limits don’t give elected officials enough time to develop expertise • 28% Agree; 68% Disagree Term limits give more power to lobbyists and unelected staff • 35% Agree; 55% Disagree
- 15. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track”
- 16. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track” • 89%: State corruption very/somewhat common
- 17. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track” • 89%: State corruption very/somewhat common • 61%: State corruption impacts people’s lives
- 18. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track” • 89%: State corruption very/somewhat common • 61%: State corruption impacts people’s lives • 58%: Illinois more corrupt than other states* * 2012 Simon Poll
- 19. What’s Behind the High Support? Frustration with Government • 76%: Illinois is “on the wrong track” • 89%: State corruption very/somewhat common • 61%: State corruption impacts people’s lives • 58%: Illinois more corrupt than other states* • 28%: Trust state gov’t to do what’s right** * 2012 Simon Poll ** Gallup Poll 2014
- 20. Would It Pass If It Made the Ballot? Faster than free ice cream.
- 21. Would It Pass If It Made the Ballot? Faster than free ice cream. • Questions?