The document discusses the impacts of climate change on global food security. It notes that rising temperatures are expected to reduce agricultural productivity, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme heat waves that could devastate crop yields. This could lead to greater food insecurity and price volatility worldwide. While some debate the causes and impacts of climate change, the risks of inaction may be catastrophic for global stability.

1. Food and Water: Basic Challenges to Interna5onal Stability
Climate Change and Future Food Insecurity
Paul E. Walsh
Founder and Managing Principal
G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
Paul.Walsh@G2Weather.com

2. Overview
IntroducBon
•
Weather Risk Management Overview
•
Climate Change Primer
•
The Next 100 Years: Climate “DisrupBon” and Food
•
Security
• The Next Few Years: The Debate Heats Up
• QuesBons

3. G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC
Helping businesses make more
money by proacBvely planning for
the influence of weather on
consumers and business
© 2008 G2 Weather Intelligence, LLC. All Rights Reserved

4. “Always check
the weather
report before
you pray for
rain.”
‐ Mark Twain

5. Managing Weather‐Related Uncertainty
Three components:
1. Understanding value at risk ($)
2. OperaBonal management (managing the knowable)
Real‐Bme

TacBcal

Seasonal

Very long‐lead (decades) Scenario Planning

3. Financial management (hedging the unknowable)
 Weather derivaBve hedging soluBons

6. Trust, but Verify: On Seasonal ForecasBng,
Uncertainty, and Weather Risk Management
• Seasonal forecasts useful for
understanding climate trends
and anomalies
• Forecasts based on large scale
interacBons between the
ocean and atmosphere
• Opera&onal/policy decisions
shaped by probabili&es and
odds vice absolutes
• Financial hedging used to
offset the uncertainty inherent
in seasonal forecast

7. “Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may
not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the
risk of inac5on.” Rupert Murdoch, CEO, News Corp
“…the threat of catastrophic global warming is the greatest
hoax ever perpetrated on the American people,” U.S. Sen.
James M. Inhofe (R‐Okla)
Photo courtesy of Smiling Pug

8. Climate Change Primer from the President’s
Science and Technology Advisor

9. The Hockey SBck
Source: John Holdren The Science of Climate DisrupBon

10. The Smoking Gun
Source: John Holdren The Science of Climate DisrupBon

11. Increased Frequency of Heat Waves
2003 2040
Source: John Holdren The Science of Climate DisrupBon

12. Warnings of Future Food Insecurity With
Unprecedented Seasonal Heat
“The food crisis of 2006 ‐ 2008 demonstrates the fragile nature of feeding the
world’s human populaBon. “
‐ David BafsB, University of Washington and Rosamond Naylor, Stanford

13. Higher Growing Season Temperatures Have
DramaBc Impacts on Agriculture ProducBvity
• Avoiding a perpetual
food crisis under
condiBons of global
warming a serious
future challenge
• Direct yield losses in
the tropics and sub‐
tropics esBmated at 2.5
to 16% for every 1°C
increase in seasonal
temperature
Source: David BafsB, University of Washington and Rosamond Naylor, Stanford

14. >90% Probability Growing Season Temperatures in
the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st
century will exceed the most extreme seasonal
temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006
‐ David BafsB, University of Washington and Rosamond Naylor, Stanford

15. Regional Examples: France
• Summer 2003 heat
wave in western Europe
• >30K killed
• 20% to 30% decreases
in agriculture
producBon
• Projec5ons call for that
level of heat to be the
norm by the end of the
century
‐ David BafsB, University of Washington and Rosamond Naylor, Stanford

16. Regional DisrupBons Have Global ImplicaBons
• Countries respond to producBon and price volaBlity
by restricBng trade or purchasing large quanBBes on
internaBonal markets
• Future heat stress on crops and livestock will occur
in an environment of rising demand for food and
animal feed making markets more vulnerable to
price swings
• Most damaging to poor households that spend the
majority of their incomes on staple foods

17. World Bank Weather Risk Management Efforts
in Malawi

18. World Bank Weather Risk Management Efforts
in Malawi

19. World Bank Weather Risk Management Efforts
in Malawi

20. World Bank Weather Risk Management Efforts
in Malawi

21. HeaBng up the Climate Change Debate
• Possible we could be
entering into a period of
cooling across the
populated regions in the
Northern Hemisphere
• The Pacific Decadal
Oscilla5on (PDO) is a
pabern of Pacific
climate variability that
shiks phases on at least
inter‐decadal Bme
scales, usually about 20
to 30 years

22. A New Regime of Colder Weather?
?
?
“In general, the climate regime no longer resembles the recent warm spell of the last
25 years. The persistence of the very cold Pacific Ocean of the the last couple of years
has resulted in … paKerns more similar to the 1950s‐1970s. If this “old‐school”
paKern persists much longer, the global oceans will conQnue to cool off, and we will
likely head into a cooler mulQ‐decadal climate regime.”
‐‐ Dr Todd Crawford, WSI Seasonal Forecaster

23. Spring 2009 Weather Driver:
La Nina Redux

24. Typical January – March Weather During
Moderate to Strong El Nino and La Nina

25. Summary Points
• Science: >90% likely (“virtually certain”) climate change will result in significant
global food disrupBons this century
• Tropics and sub‐tropics the most at risk for significant disrupBon; impacBng the
most vulnerable populaBons
• SoluBons likely to come in the form of adapBve technologies and increasing
use of financial hedging instruments
• PoliBcal debate re: climate change may be heaBng up over the next few years if
the PDO phase shik results in a long‐term return to cooler temperatures
• ComplicaBng the transformaBonal and adapBve changes needed to
manage the coming challenges

26. QuesBons?
Paul Walsh, G2 Weather Intelligence LLC
– Paul.Walsh@G2Weather.com
– Direct: +1.917.463.4238
– Mobile: +1.610.246.0623
– Blog/Website: www.G2Weather.com
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