Thank you....

2. "A large number of scenarios and
outcomes … are impossible to
comprehend and evaluate without
the help of a computer simulation
model (Harrington and Tumay,
2000)."
Concept of Simulation

3. Simulation
Acting out an actual or probable real life condition, event, or
situation to find a cause of a past occurrence (such as an
accident), or to forecast future effects (outcomes) of assumed
circumstances or factors.
Simulation is an imitation of the operation of a real-world
process or system.
Simulation is normally used to assess the current, or predict
the future, performance of a business process.
Simulation typically uses statistical and computer modelling
to investigate the performance of a business process either for a
new situation or to improve an existing set of processes.
Concept of Simulation

4. A simulation may be performed through
Solving a set of equations (a mathematical model)
Constructing a physical (scale) model
Games (such as war games)
Computer graphics model (such as an animated
flowchart)
Concept of Simulation

5. Advantages of simulation
New policies, operating procedures, information flows
and so on can be explored without disrupting ongoing
operation of the real system.
New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation
systems can be tested without committing resources for
their acquisition.
Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed-
up or slow-down of the phenomenon( clock is self-control).

6. Advantages of simulation
Insight can be obtained about interaction of variables and
important variables to the performance.
Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where
work in process, the system is delayed.
A simulation study can help in understanding how the
system operates.
“What if” questions can be answered.

7. Disadvantages of simulation
Model building requires special training
Vendors of simulation software have been actively
developing packages that contain models that only need
input (templates).
Simulation results can be difficult to interpret.
Simulation modeling and analysis can be time
consuming and expensive
Many simulation software have output-analysis.

8. Example of simulation
https://youtu.be/4B03a-uhkG8