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Sustainability

Yearbook 2011
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Printed on CyclusPrint Recycled


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Interaction
                                                                                                       Transparency
                                                                                                          Knowledge
                                                                                                               Value



Northern Star
Northern Star is a global multi-boutique asset manager specializing in active investment management and strategic
partnerships with clients. Established in Helsinki by a senior team of financial industry professionals, Northern
Star is striving to become a leading international investment management business with scale and institutional
credibility. Leveraging its partnership with Limestone, Northern Star is pioneering in introducing responsible
investing in worldwide emerging and frontier markets.




Limestone Investment Management
Limestone is a specialist Emerging European equity fund manager based in Tallinn. The company was founded in
2007 and is managed by its owners. We focus exclusively on delivering outstanding investment performance to
our clients. Our home region and investment universe, Central and Eastern Europe, is one of the most dynamic
investment markets in the world. Limestone is one of the very first New Europe based investment managers that
integrates the concepts of socially responsible investment and sustainable development into fundamental research
process as essential factors for long term performance and risk management.




                                                                                      Limestone is a signatory to the United Nations Principles for
                                                                            Responsible Investment (UN PRI) and European SRI Transparency Code
The European SRI Transparency logo signifies that the Limestone commits to provide accurate, adequate and timely information to enable stakeholders, in
particular consumers, to understand the Sustainable Responsible Investment (SRI) policies and practices relating to the fund. Detailed information about the
European SRI Transparency Code can be found on www.eurosif.org, and information of the SRI policies and practices of the Limestone SRI Fund can be found
at Limestone website. The Transparency Code are managed by Eurosif, an independent organisation. The European SRI Transparency Logo reflects the fund
manager’s commitment as detailed above and should not be taken as an endorsement of any particular company, organisation or individual


                                                                                                                                                               3
Dear Reader
    If there is one clear message to learn from the financial crisis that has rocked the world for the better part of last
    four years, it is that change is needed. From the sudden understanding that borrowed welfare is not an asset but
    liability, to the realisation that the sacred ratings that the entire financial system relies upon are nothing more than
    more or less educated guesses, there are signs everywhere that the current Western financial model is not entirely
    sustainable. Find-the-greater-fool in highest possible frequency has become an ever more popular game in stock
    markets, places that were created to mediate capital between investors and entrepreneurs, diversifying the risks
    and distributing the gains. We believe it is time to return to the very basics of investing, to do it in a way it was
    meant to be.

    Limestone took up the task of introducing sustainable investing practices in Eastern Europe four years ago.
    Meanwhile, we found a like-minded partner in Northern Star and decided to create together something truly
    unique: a global multi boutique investment house with common sustainable investment framework. Northern
    Star Group brings together Limestone’s team with experience from emerging Europe and ambitious international
    investment professionals with their own experiences from all over the world. This creates synergy that will lead
    to a all new type of investment culture with sight and focus on long term gains arising from sustainable growth,
    something that will always outperform eventually.

    Limestone New Europe Fund has reached three year milestone, often considered by institutional investors the
    minimum proof of meaningful performance history. Meanwhile, Northern Star Group has launched two new funds,
    dedicated to deliver the best there is from other emerging regions of the world. A concept, contrarian to the
    mainstream world-view, of looking at the emerging world as a collection of investment themes driven by long
    term demographic and social shifts, as opposed to a political map of separate countries, is the underlying idea of
    Globetrotter Fund. Northern Star Russia was created to answer to the demand for a more sophisticated view on
    Russia than presented by the usual index driven mega funds playing the ever more virtual commodities-game.

    While GDP in most rich economies is still below its level at the end of 2007, emerging economies’ output has
    jumped by almost one fifth over the same period. The rich world’s woes have clearly hastened the shift in global
    economic power towards the emerging markets. The long-term outlook for emerging economies remains bright,
    with less debt, more growth and huge potential to lift productivity. Investment flows will follow. Northern Star was
    created to accommodate that shift in a pioneering way. Building on long experience from global capital markets and
    grass root level ground work practice, Northern Star and Limestone team has something novel to offer.

    We sincerely hope that this book will achieve its primary goal and convince you that it is not only possible to do
    things differently but it is also necessary in order to survive and prosper in these turbulent times. The world is full
    of opportunities.




             Tomi Långström                                                      Alvar Roosimaa
             CEO, Northern Star                                                  CIO, Limestone

4
Contents
Northern Star Group: Nourishing the Best of Boutique Culture         6

Responsible Investing Makes Sense From Day One                       8

	 Nothing Sacrificed and Whole Lot Gained                            8

	 Leveraging Limestone’s Three Year Success Track	                   8

	 Best Risk Management Tool for Emerging Markets                     8

	 Integrated Research as Yin and Yang of Successful Investing        9

Limestone New Europe Fund                                            10

	 Update And Outlook                                                 11

Globetrotter – Unlocking the Undiscovered World                      14

	 What Are Frontier Markets?                                         14

	 Clear Investing Principles: Key to Success                         16

	 Investment Themes in Focus                                         17

In Russia, Governance Is Everything                                  19

Integrated Research the Only Way Forward                             21

Country Focus: Serbia, the Last European Frontier                    25

	 Development and Challenges                                         27

	 Capital Markets and Corporate Governance                           28

	 Companies in Focus                                                 29

Why Governance Matters: From Investing To Litigation in A&D Pharma   32

Northern Star Group Responsible Investment Principles                34

	 Framework for ESG Evaluation                                       34

	 Evaluating Corporate Governance                                    36




                                                                          5
Northern Star Group:
    Nourishing the Best of Boutique Culture
    The post crisis investment community is looking for new   and were embedded with poor internal governance to
    solutions with better alignment of motivation between     enter into anything complex or risky.
    investors and managers and more straightforward value
    and risk proposition. In the boom days when funds         The recognition is universal that even when it is obvious
    could pick and choose investors and assets piled up       that small management controlled investment teams
    without too much effort, these were easily overlooked     have higher motivation and potential to outperform,
    – unless things went horribly wrong.                      business risks often outweigh that prospect. People
                                                              who are good at trading or investing are not necessarily
    Recent investment innovation has focused on themes        good at running businesses. Growth is hard to achieve
    like new asset classes and allocation techniques, new     now without building a robust infrastructure with high
    risk and return enhancing tools, theme investing, and     quality internal controls.
    new business models. Institutions that have gained the
    most from that innovation had strong investment beliefs   Northern Star has been created to tap this opportunity
    which they were able to implement in a disciplined way,   by creating a multi-boutique asset management house:
    often benefiting from early mover advantage.              a base where talented fund managers could operate and
                                                              share resources. A flight to quality and size often means
    Institutions that lost the most were victims of their     a flight to “boring”, or benchmark-hugging strategies –
    herd instinct combined with low engagement with their     entrepreneurs supported by institutional infrastructure
    asset managers. Usually these were lacking also skills    are the solution. By partnering up with Limestone,


6
Northern Star got to an instant start with licensed          that are an opportunity for investment managers with
Luxembourg based infrastructure, and a talented team         analytical resources and investment infrastructure
that had been building institutional quality service for     capable to collect and process non-standardized data,
the last three years.                                        including non-financial information.

Creating something new is an opportunity to combine          Asset managers with success have often had strong
all the newest and best innovations into one. In addition    overlay of human judgement in risk models and
to modern business concept, Northern Star is focusing        investment processes. The example of Limestone
on the integration of two other areas of investing that      investment team being a pioneer in East Europe is
promise to be market share winners in the coming             broadened up to be the core element of the whole
years: responsible investing and emerging markets.           Northern Star group and its products and services.
                                                             Our multi-boutique business model is determined to
Non-financial risks demand strong human judgement,           be decisively outward looking and more ideas seeking.
disciplined processes and high engagement with               Special insights and foresight will be driven from
investment targets. Mere lip service, such as having         learning-by-doing, learning by experimentation and
signed a global principle, can be a good start, but          learning from others.
unfortunately too often leaves everything else
unchanged within the investment process. Responsible
investing is not so recent innovation, but is undergoing a     Creating something new is an
transformation to adapt to real needs by real investors.       opportunity to combine all the
There is still a rather small group of asset managers and
institutional investors who take it seriously. Ahead of
                                                               newest and best innovations
the crowd, Northern Star is being ESG implementation           into one.
pioneer in new geographical areas and in new ways to
integrate ESG into traditional valuation methodology.        We may not be able to change the world, but we will
                                                             seek to be better by putting into action such investment
Over the coming years, massive debt burdens will be          beliefs which we believe to create an alignment of
a drag on rich countries’ growth. At the other end, the      interest with our long term clients and ourselves. One
long-term outlook for emerging economies remains             such belief is having integrated ESG as unique value
bright, with less debt, more favourable demography           driver. Northern Star products are often classified as
and huge potential to lift productivity. Investing in        high alpha seeking against indices. We believe that by
developing markets is traditionally considered to carry      being benchmark agnostic against traditional indices
a higher degree of risk, and the main reason is the          can actually lead into less risky portfolios when ESG is
information problem: company specific data is not            fully integrated into investment process.
readily available. The pricing inefficiencies created by




                                                                                                                        7
Responsible Investing
    Makes Sense From
    Day One
    Northern Star has taken on a unique challenge to build        that goal and, as with every new thing in an established
    up an emerging markets multi-boutique platform with           environment with sticky traditions, more threats and
    a dedicated focus on sustainability and responsible           immediate problems are on the visible surface than
    investing. There are no readymade solutions towards           quick wins.




    Nothing Sacrificed and                                        social and governance analysis before. The first three
    Whole Lot Gained                                              years have proven highly successful: fund’s long term
    Mainstream investment community still views anything          returns are at the top of CEE ex-Russia peer group
    that has to do with social responsibility or sustainability   without having to compromise on our standards. The
    with a fair share of suspicion. Being pioneers in the area,   track record has also been characterized by a constant
    we have had to spend considerable amount of effort            search for more effective ways of assessing the extra-
    to demystify the concept of ESG research and social           financial side of companies. The approach has earned
    responsibility in investing. It is the one of the basic       praise from several investors, encouraging Northern
    traits of human nature, the present-bias, that needs to       Star to strive for a group wide sustainable investment
    be taken good care of in order for SRI to break out into      policy development.
    mainstream. Prevailing view of SRI investing is that it
    requires for immediate sacrifices in the performance          Best Risk Management Tool
    and selection of opportunities, for the sake of doubtful      for Emerging Markets
    benefits in the unclear future. This should not be the        All investment portfolios would benefit from managing
    case. Our minimum exclusion and integrated research           ESG risks, but it is in emerging markets where the
    approach adds value from day one without any                  degree is most acute. Gathering and assessing
    sacrifices. We hope that by increasing the size of our        environmental, social and governance information,
    business we reach more investors and help turn socially       and limiting exposure to risks associated with extra
    responsible investing concept from „frown upon“ into          financial factors significantly reduces „tail risk“ – the
    „smiled upon“.                                                risk of unlikely events causing catastrophic damage.
                                                                  The real challenge hereby is the significant information
    Leveraging Limestone’s Three Year                             problem. This can only be tackled by building up an
    Success Track                                                 inhouse research process that is capable of gathering
    Limestone New Europe Socially Responsible Fund has            the necessary information from outside the public data
    since 2008 served as a real life experiment. Nobody had       vendors’ services, and to integrate it into company
    tried to do fundamentals driven all-cap active investing      valuation methodology.
    in Emerging Europe with integrated environmental,

8
The Yin and Yang of
                  Investment Analysis
          A dynamic, unified relationship exists between financial and extra financial
          information. Omitting either part leads to insufficient knowledge about the
                     company and creates exposure to unforeseen risks.




                                          Rational
                                           Visible
                                         Hard Facts
                                                                         Weak financials diminish
  Financial strength
                                                                         opportunities for innovation
                                                                         and sustainable development

       YANG                                                              Balanced analysis can be
   Financial results
                                                                         achieved by evaluating both
                                                                         parts. Tensions in both parts
                                                                         can     be    creative   and
        YIN                                                              constraining
Corporate governance
 Environmental and                                                       Poor corporate governance
 social sustainability                                                   and       management          of
                                                                         environmental and social
 Managerial strength                                                     risks leads to fines, bad press,
                                                                         loss of customers, and
                                                                         valuable      employees        –
                                                                         reflected in financials.

                                           Intuitive
                                           Invisible
                                          Soft Facts


                                                                                                            9
Limestone New Europe Fund
     Limestone New Europe SRI Fund celebrated its third                               New Europe, and invest investors’ funds in their publicly
     anniversary in August 2010. Launched in the wake of the                          traded stock at the best possible terms. The ultimate
     worst financial crisis in modern history – a few weeks                           goal is to outperform any competitive peer and
     before Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy filing – the fund                             investable market proxy in any three year time period.
     was the first equity fund managed from New Europe                                To achieve that goal the management team employs
     to incorporate sustainability factors in its investment                          rigorous bottom up investment process, which is based
     process. The fund has been equally successful in                                 on an in-house developed research framework and
     pioneering in corporate social responsibility in                                 tools, including unique ESG factor integration serving
     New Europe and producing strongly outperforming                                  primarily as a risk management tool.
     investment returns.

     The fund has a simple and straightforward purpose:
     to find the best companies with the highest upside in


                                                  Limestone New Europe Fund
                                                  STOXX EU Enlarged Total Return

               140


               120


               100


                 80


                 60


                 40


                 20
                      July 08



                                Oct 08



                                         Jan 09



                                                      April 09



                                                                 July 09



                                                                           Oct 09



                                                                                    Jan 10



                                                                                             April 10



                                                                                                        July 10



                                                                                                                  Oct 10



                                                                                                                           jan 11



                                                                                                                                    April 11




     Source: Bloomberg



10
Update And Outlook
Looking back to last year, and reviewing year-old           from Baa3 to Baa2 with a stable outlook. The increase
forecasts, it feels like deja vu. The final run-up to       is a consequence of the continuing fiscal discipline, the
Limestone New Europe Fund’s three year milestone            improved institutional stability as well as the relative
was again characterized by uncertainty about the            flexibility of the financial system, the report reads.
sustainability of global recovery. Plenty of one off        Bulgaria is effectively running a balanced budget and
threats and hurdles kept popping up, like US debt ceiling   has very low levels of the public debt, something that
debate, earthquake in Japan and of course the Greeks        is quite rare these days. In addition, Moody’s assessed
keeping the financial markets all over the world their
hostage, threatening to blow up Eurozone. No wonder
then that external factors were heavily prevailing over
                                                              While the world was holding its
local progress reports in setting the sentiment for           breath during most of the spring
Central and Eastern European markets.                         and summer over Eurozone and
Looking beyond the generic risk-on and risk-off market
                                                              US debt, news from New Europe
view that dominated investment flows, New Europe has          grew constantly more positive.
shown surprisingly strong recovery from the crisis. From
economic to political spectrum, all signs show healthy      the public finance and the Bulgarian banking system
restructuring and quick return to convergence path with     to remain out of the influence of the Greek debt
growth returning to long term double-the-EU-average         crisis owing to the considerable liquidity and capital
already in 2011. While the world was holding its breath     buffers. EBRD revised upward its forecast for Romanian
during most of the spring and summer over Eurozone          economic growth, saying it expects harsh austerity
and US debt, news from New Europe grew constantly           measures implemented under a multilateral financial
more positive.                                              program will pay off. And again, EBRD also assessed
                                                            Greek influence and concluded that Greece’s seemingly
The European Council concluded that Croatia is ready to     turn for the worse is unlikely to push Romanian economy
become the 28th member of the European Union and            into recession. And Serbia, the last European “outcast”
accession treaty should be signed during 2011, which        with size, made a giant leap towards EU accession when
will enable the country to become a full member state       it caught the last missing war criminals and handed
in 2013. Moody’s raised the credit rating of Bulgaria       them over to Hague court.


                                                                                                                        11
COUNTRY,   2011E             POPULATION     GDP (PPP)    NOMINAL GDP PER 2011F   WAGE/MONTHS   PUBLIC DEBT   BUDGET DEFICIT   MARKET CAP   STOCKS   MAIN INDEX   FREEFLOAT RETURN FROM
                                            MN         PER CAPITA    CAPITA 2012F   %YOY        €           %GDP           2012F            €MN                                         ‘07 HIGH

           Poland                         38.2        70%              11.5         3.6%      904            54            -3.2%          418         118      WIG20         45%        -39%
           Czech Rep                      10.5        91%              15.9         2.9%      1069           40            -3.8%          27          32.7     PX            40%        -48%
           Romania                        21.5        44%              6.8          3.5%      472            35            -4.0%          82          13.4     BET           20%        -55%
           Bulgaria                       7.4         47%              5.6          3.5%      353            16            -2.1%          98          5.0      SOFIX         25%        -81%
           Hungary                        10.0        69%              11.5         2.8%      880            80            -3.6%          55          17.7     BUX           53%        -38%
           Croatia                        4.3         65%              11.6         1.8%      1043           55            -4.8%          256         19.2     CROBEX        30%        -63%
           Serbia                         7.3         40%              5.0          4.0%      493            42            -3.0%          90          8.7      BELEX15       20%        -81%
           Estonia                        1.3         68%              12.3         3.7%      792            8             -1.8%          15          1.3      OMXT          30%        -44%
           Slovenia                       2.0         103%             20.0         2.4%      1405           36            -5.0%          34          3.2      SBITOP        25%        -38%
           Lithuania                      3.1         63%              9.7          3.8%      614            37            -4.5%          38          5.5      OMXV          30%        -75%
           New europe (10)                106         66%              11.0         3.2%      803            40            -3.6%          1113        207      DJ STOXX      42%        -49%
           Euro area (17)                 332         100%             38.6         1.8%      2450           81            -4.0%                      6 700    STOXX 600     79%        -42%
           share of...                    32%         66%              28%          178%      33%            50%                                      3.1%

     Source: GDP: World Bank , GDP Forecast: IMF World Economic                           Recent financial crisis and subsequent reforms have turned New Europe into a
     Outlook April 2011, Budget Deficit: Eurostat
                                                                                   financially sound and very competitive region within the borderless European Union.

     The above selection of news delibaretly focuses to                                                   room for future growth definitely is.
     the Southern part of New Europe, the least liked by                                                  The importance of Eurozone stability for New Europe is
     investors in the crisis aftermath and therefore the                                                  hard to overestimate. At the same time it is important
     most neglected. Most markets in that region trade                                                    to understand the difference between the direct
     not much higher than at the bottom of the crisis in                                                  impact on domestic economy of CEE countries and
     Spring 2009. We see it as an extraordinary investment                                                the potential damage that would come from another
     opportunity, something alike the second half of 2009                                                 wave of risk aversion and renewed general perception
                                                                                                          downgrade, would Greek crisis escalate further. The
        In the „periphery“ of Eastern                                                                     former is relatively moderate and the effects have
                                                                                                          already run their course. The latter, however, is what
        Europe we find the cheapest                                                                       moves financial markets and short term asset prices;
        companies with the most to                                                                        the “risk off ” trade that pushed prices lower in CEE is
                                                                                                          the direct consequence of that.
        benefit from both the short
        term recovery and the longer                                                                      Naturally, all depends on the scale of crisis escalation.
        term convergence.                                                                                 A real renewed economic slowdown in the Eurozone
                                                                                                          would cause stronger decline in CEE exports and growth
      when the fund nearly doubled its unit price. Our strictly                                           in whatever other areas of the local economies will not
     fundamentals-driven portfolio has throughout 2011                                                    be able to make up for that. In addition, investments
     shifted more weight to the newest members of EU and                                                  into the CEE region largely come from the Eurozone, and
     the next two hopefuls, together often characterized as                                               would therefore be negatively affected in such a case,
     the „periphery“ of Eastern Europe. This is where we                                                  too. Even though there are indications of a recovery
     find the cheapest companies with the most to benefit                                                 that should shift in the coming months and years from
     from both the short term recovery and the longer term                                                export-driven growth to more balanced growth, the
     convergence. With careful liquidity management and                                                   economic recovery will continue to rely on external
     rigorous bottom up research we are certain that for our                                              factors from the Eurozone. While CEE countries with a
     portfolio the fundamental risk is not significantly higher                                           larger domestic demand base may be able to counter
     in the Balkans than it is in Warsaw or Prague. But the                                               some negative external effects more efficiently than



12
smaller and less diversified economies in the future,                                                                                 not only mirror the chances stemming from continued
the overall region will continue to depend on economic                                                                                convergence but also the risks of a slowdown in growth.
trends in the Eurozone, and especially Germany. CEE will


                                                                          Itraxx CEEMEA
                                                                          Itraxx Western Europe

                     350


                     300


                     250


                     200


                     150


                     100


                         50
                                  Jan 10

                                           Feb 10

                                                    March 10

                                                               April 10

                                                                          May 10

                                                                                      June 10

                                                                                                July 10

                                                                                                          Aug 10

                                                                                                                   Sept 10

                                                                                                                             Oct 10

                                                                                                                                        Nov 10

                                                                                                                                                 Dec 10

                                                                                                                                                          Jan 11

                                                                                                                                                                   Feb 11

                                                                                                                                                                            March 11

                                                                                                                                                                                       Apirl 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                  May 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                           June 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     July 11
Source: Bloomberg                                                                    For the first time ever, risk of CEEMEA, as measured by CDS spreads, has dropped below Western
                                                                                   European level. This would suggest that convergence of asset valuation levels should converge, too.


Considering that New Europe is a relatively small                                                                                     and near-emerging market growth rates. Limestone
investment region with open economies and strong                                                                                      New Europe Fund management team will continue
ties to Western Europe, it is unlikely to decouple from                                                                               to do what we know best: finding the most attractive
general trends in global markets. What it offers, is a                                                                                companies in the region and constructing a unique
large long term outperformance if and when European                                                                                   portfolio to deliver the outperformance.
economy recovers, with near-developed market risk



                                                                                                                                      Working in equity markets from 1996 as equities trader
                                                                                                                                      and portfolio manager, Alvar joined Suprema Fund
   Head of Eastern European Equities




                                                                                                                                      Management in 2000 as a fund manager. In 2003 Alvar
                                                                                                                                      started in Hansa Investment Funds where he initiated
                                                                                                                                      the set up of CEE investment management team and
                                                                                                                                      a portfolio of funds including the Morningstar 5*
                                                                                                                                      rated Hansa Eastern Europe Equity Fund. In 2007,
                                                                                                                                      Alvar co-initiated the setup of Limestone Investment
   Alvar Roosimaa




                                                                                                                                      Management, an independent specialist Eastern Europe
                                                                                                                                      equity funds investment manager, where most of the
                                                                                                                                      team from previous employer eventually followed.
                                                                                                                                      He was nominated the Fund Manager of The Year in
                                                                                                                                      Estonia in 2005 and 2006. Alvar has a MSc in Finance
                                                                                                                                      degree from London Business School.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                               13
Globetrotter – Unlocking the Undiscovered World
     For those with the skill and patience to choose carefully   as well as assessing the soft values and company’s
     and a strong view on how the world will look like in the    interaction with the environment around it.
     coming years, global frontier markets provide excellent
     opportunities. There are many unexplored markets with       There are many, both objective and subjective, reasons
     exceptional value and growth opportunities that the big     for the inefficiencies to pop in these markets. There are
     money has not found yet. Accessing these markets in         some markets that have not been found yet because
     earnest requires experience and takes a lot of ground       they are very new or very small and investors just
     work, research, and network building. That is what the      haven’t noticed them yet. Some markets are restricted
     Globetrotter fund was created to do.                        from foreign investors, which provide opportunities for

     What Are Frontier Markets?                                    The lack of investor base
     Northern Star defines frontier markets as the most
     inefficient emerging markets with historically low
                                                                   overlap with global markets
     correlation with major global markets. Mainstream             systematically creates asset
     research coverage from investment banks and brokers           mispricing in frontier markets.
     does not reach these markets and that, along with
     other reasons, keeps the mass of foreign investors away.    those who have the capability to dodge the restrictions.
     This lack of investor base overlap with global markets      Good examples of these are Chinese and Saudi Arabian
     systematically creates asset mispricing and that gives      local markets that Globetrotter has access to, thanks to
     remarkable opportunities for investors who are capable      the local network created over many years of activity
     of conducting a deeper research on the grass-root level     in the region. Then there are markets like Russia, and


14
Central Asian and Eastern European smaller countries                                     these high-potential markets are in the beginning of or
that suffer from reputational downgrades that have                                       already going through their fast growth phases where
little to do with real developments, thus offering                                       the highest returns come from. Indexes consider
extraordinary opportunities for investors with deeper
local knowledge.                                                                             Companies operating in the
                                                                                             high-potential markets are
Selected countries in Globetrotter
frontier market universe                                                                     in the beginning of their fast
Quite often, frontier markets funds base their portfolio                                     growth phases where the
construction on indexes and geographical borders. This
                                                                                             highest returns come from.
usually means that large countries and regions have
large weights and small ones have small weights, no                                      adding the companies remarkably later, long after such
matter what the outlook. Stock-wise, biggest companies                                   prosperous gains.
in the market that are added to indexes usually get
more attention. In the end of the day, everybody is                                      Racing the index does not necessarily make anybody
doing pretty much the same thing and earning the same                                    rich either. A fund can outperform a benchmark index
money because they let someone else decide where                                         but still give a negative return. Who would win in
and how much to invest.                                                                  this case? Working on one’s own speed, having only
                                                                                         the target performance in sight will create value for
That approach will not capture the true potential in                                     investors and increase their wealth.
frontier markets. Some large countries are way too
expensive during some periods while small markets                                        Parts of the world considered frontier are going through
could have tremendous potential. But higher risk                                         the fast-growth-phase and large structural changes, but
profile that comes with big potential makes it seem to                                   not equally in all sectors and all markets. That is where
be safer to keep away while it really only requires more                                 the theme-investing comes in.
homework. Moreover, the companies operating in

                                                                                         Balance on Time required Ease of doing
                                                                                           Current      to start a     business                    Urban      Mortality rate
                                                Population,   GDP growth,   GDP growth, Account, % of business, days,  (1=best,  Railways, km, population, % under-5, of
                                    Area km²     mln, 2010     2011 est      2012 est   GDP, 2011 est      2010       183=worst)     2010      of total, 2010    1000

    Cambodia                        181,035        14.3          6.5           6.5          -11.4           8            147           690           22.8           88
    China                           9,596,961    1,341.0         9.6           9.5           5.7            38            79         86,000          45.2           19
    Congo, Dem Rep                  2,344,858      62.6          6.5           6.0           -2.8           84           175          4,007          35.2          128
    Egypt, Arab Rep                 1,001,450      75.5          1.0           4.0           -2.7           7             94          5,083          42.8           21
    Ghana                           238,533        23.5          13.7          7.3           -6.8           12            67           947           51.5           69
    India                           3,287,263    1,182.1         8.2           7.8           -3.7           29           134         63,974          30.1           66
    Indonesia                       1,904,569     234.0          6.2           6.5           0.9            47           121          5,042          53.7           39
    Iran, Islamic Rep               1,648,195      76.9          0.0           3.0           11.7           8            129          8,442          69.5           31
    Iraq                            438,317     30,399.6         9.6           12.6          -3.2           77           166          2,272          66.4           44
    Kazakhstan                      2,724,900      16.1          5.9           5.6           5.8            19            59         15,079          58.5           29
    Kenya                           580,367        37.5          5.7           6.5           -9.3           33            98          2,066          22.2           84
    Kuwait                           17,818        3.5           5.3           5.1           39.4           35            74                         98.4           10
    Liberia                         111,369        3.8           5.9           9.8          -37.6           20           155           429           61.5          112
    Malaysia                        329,847        27.6          5.5           5.2           11.4           17            21          1,849          72.2           6
    Mongolia                        1,564,116      2.8           9.8           7.1          -13.3           13            73          1,908          57.5           29
    Mozambique                      799,380        21.4          7.5           7.8          -12.0           13           126          4,787          38.4          142
    Nigeria                         923,768       148.1          6.9           6.6           14.6           31           137          3,505          49.8          138
    Qatar                            11,586        1.5           20.0          7.1           36.1           12            50                         95.8           11
    Saudi Arabia                    2,149,690      27.7          7.5           3.0           19.8           5             11          1,378          82.1           21
    United Arab Emirates             83,600        8.9           3.3           3.8           10.4           15            40                         78.1           7
    Vietnam                         331,210        86.9          6.3           6.8           -4.0           44            78          2,347          28.8           24

Source: IMF, World Bank, CIA, FAO




                                                                                                                                                                               15
Clear Investing Principles:
       Investing thematically captures                             Key to Success
       the maximum growth in the                                   Falling in love with companies is quite easy when doing
       selected areas of economy                                   as much work with them as frontier markets require.
                                                                   Knowing them so well and seeing the opportunities
       while not dragging the lagging                              they offer could lead to buying assets that are relatively
       parts of it along.                                          fairly priced. To prevent that, quite straightforward
                                                                   investing principles have to be set in place.
     The idea of investing thematically is to capture the
     maximum growth in the selected areas of economy while         The whole investment process of Globetrotter is based
     not dragging the lagging parts of it along. The strategy is   on fundamental and geopolitical analysis as well as
     to identify those themes that benefit first and pick up the   grass root level research while also adding soft values
     future winning companies in each theme, wherever they         like environmental, social and governance factors. All
     operate in our universe or where they are listed. That        the markets in frontiers’ universe are very different,
     helps achieve real diversification benefits in the fund.      there are no homogenous areas. All markets have
                                                                   different political regimes and cultural characteristics.
     While different parts of the frontier markets are in a        They all have different risks involved. Before investing,
     different phase of development, the themes to benefit         all these aspects must be considered and measured
     are also different. As changes take place, the winning        accordingly. This is the one place where geographical
     themes change, so modifications should also be done in        borders actually do matter and are reckoned with.
     the portfolio in order to stay ahead of the market.
                                                                   In Globetrotter, the most important principle while
     The benefitting themes are usually quite well protected       building the portfolio is having at least 50 percent
     during the times of market turbulence, because the            upside for each theme and each company over the
     big money has not reached them yet or does not care           next 6 to 18 months. That is clear enough to prevent
     about them. Only smaller number of focused investors          making hasty investment decisions and together with
     is involved in the beginning.                                 inefficient market approach, will give enough downside


              CASH

              LOCAL CHINA MARKET

              CHINA LUXURY GOODS

              FSU BANKING

              EE LAGGARDS

              FOOD

              ASIAN NEW TIGERS

              CENTRAL ASIAN COMMODITY RESERVES

              CEMENT

              OIL SERVICES AND EXPLORATION

              AFRICAN CONSUMER

              MIDDLE EAST RECOVERY

              SAUDI ARABIA OPENING GATES




16
protection during difficult times while providing an         intention to punish companies that do not disclose their
excellent upside.                                            ESG practices but rather engage with them, explain the
                                                             mutual benefits, and encourage them to open up. In
  The most important principle                               frontier markets, the challenge is big – most companies
                                                             do not have a habit of disclosing their ESG information,
  is to have at least 50 percent                             the reasons can be anything from cultural to the fear
  upside for each theme and                                  of competition or clients’ reaction. Among many good
                                                             causes the ESG integration serves, it is also a vital risk
  company over the next 6 to 18
                                                             management tool against damaging event risks in an
  months.                                                    environment where public information availability is
                                                             underdeveloped.
Clearly, nobody has a crystal ball in the office. Even if
all the fundamentals support the upside principle and
inefficient markets approach, the performance can turn
                                                               According to Risklab research,
out to be less than expected. But it can also turn out         “tail risk”, the risk of unlikely
to be much better. There are themes that will probably         events causing catastrophic
bring some disappointment but there are some that
will go through the roof. Following the principles makes
                                                               damage, can be reduced nearly
it less probable to get stuck in themes and companies          40 percent in an emerging
that could probably end up being on the losers’ side.          markets portfolio that has
In accordance with the Northern Star group wide
                                                               limited its exposure to ESG
principles, no investment is done without thorough ESG         risks.
considerations. Discussions of sustainability issues form
an integral part of management and analyst meetings
and play important role in assessing the long term           Investment Themes in Focus
business prospects of most companies. In choosing its        To give example of some out of more than ten
investment themes, Globetrotter prefers developments         investment themes in the portfolio, food and cement, as
that support local societies and improve people’s living     basic crucial necessities in frontier markets, make good
conditions. ESG factors are integrated to financial          cases. Food, one of the latest additions to Globetrotter,
models in the calculation of the target price. There is no   is a crucial issue everywhere, but especially so in the

                                                                                                                          17
developing world, where population growth is strong         Cement theme has its main focus on emerging Asia and
     and urbanization pace rapid.                                Africa. These regions are stepping in the era of big social
                                                                 and structural changes in the coming years. In China,
     There are 925 million undernourished people in the          social housing construction plan foresees building 36
     world, according to Food and Agriculture Organization       million housing units in the next five years, and local
     of the United Nations (FAO) estimate for this year,         cement producers are due a prosperous period.
     with most of them, 62 percent, living Asia and Pacific,
     followed by Sub-Saharan Africa with 26 percent of           Even bigger changes are expected in Africa where
     world’s hungry people. Along with the very poor, very       infrastructure development is picking rapidly. Nigeria
     hungry people, come the “newly rich people” or those        has a housing deficit of 17 million homes and poor state
     who have the benefit of increasing personal income          of infrastructure, both which the country’s Vision 2020
     together with the development of the broad economy.         plan intends to relief. Currently, Nigeria has one of the
     Higher disposable income reflects on the kitchen-table      lowest annual cement consumptions per capita in Africa
     quite fast – products with higher quality or even more      of 57 kg. That compares to South-Africa’s 210 kg and
     shiny labels have high attraction factor. These people      Gabon’s 330 kg consumption per capita. The country is
     live, additionally to the regions mentioned above, also     currently in cement deficit that is expected to end by
     in Middle East and Eastern Europe with the last one         2013 when only local production will be sold. That also
     having recorded the most rapid growth in per capita         means better returns for the producers.
     consumption of basic foods in recent years.
                                                                 All of the companies we have chosen to our Cement
     Approaching the companies through the eyes of               theme have very modern technologies and waste
     responsible investing, we look for evidence that the        management to reduce environmental effects. They
     production is clean, traceable and sustainable, that        are big employers and take initiative in the local social
     the companies create new jobs and give their share in       projects.
     improving living conditions of local people or customers.
     They also have to preserve local environment and take
     steps to reduce their negative influence.




                                                                 Ari-Pekka is one of the most experienced frontier
                                                                 market investors in the Nordic investment industry.
                                                                 With over 23 years of total experience in equity markets
       Head of Frontier Market Equities




                                                                 and portfolio management, he first started investing in
                                                                 emerging markets in early 1990’s. A-P has managed
                                                                 funds of various size and style, including 1.5 billion euro
                                                                 emerging/frontier market equity portfolio in Finnish
                                                                 Varma. Prior to Varma, from where he left to co-found
       Ari-Pekka Hilden




                                                                 Northern Star, A-P worked as the Head of Equities for
                                                                 institutions like LGPI and SEB Private Bank Luxembourg.
                                                                 AP has acted as a seed and anchor investor for numerous
                                                                 emerging market funds, including the first China A share
                                                                 Fund, and funds in Iraq, Iran, Vietnam and Cambodia.



18
In Russia, Governance Is Everything
Russia, always the land of plenty and full of promise,        the bottom ten companies increased shareholder value
has yet never really fully delivered. Blame it on difficult   by mere 583 percent and 145 percent, respectively.
history or bad luck, the Russian market has retained          The RTS index rose 613 and 190 percent during
its reputation of being risky and opaque. And yet, for        these periods. Statistics prove clearly that selection
skilful investors, there have been periods over the last      from corporate governance viewpoint makes a large
decade when substantial outperformance could have             difference in performance.
been extracted. Northern Star, in the search for the
right model in Russia, has turned its main attention
to corporate governance of Russian companies, as a
                                                                A straightforward strategy
natural source of much needed portfolio risk reduction.         for investors with a long term
                                                                investment horizon in Russia:
It is generally accepted that governance issues are
one of the most important factors differentiating great
                                                                concentrate on firms with solid
companies from poor ones but also one of the biggest            corporate governance
hurdles that investors must overcome in Russia. A
recent study by Aton, a Russian investment bank, shows        Unfortunately, there are a number of companies in
strong relationship between the quality of corporate          Russia that have no understanding of trust between
governance and company market performance. When               shareholders and companies. They are having hard
100 leading companies were ranked according to their          times to comply even with the very minimum legal
corporate governance scores weighted by market                requirements enforced by the exchange. Good thing is
capitalization, the top ten companies delivered a             that the regulations are improving, slowly but surely.
growth of over 2,700 percent starting from 2002 up to         For example, insider trading became criminal offence in
2Q 2011, and over 400 percent since 2009. Conversely,         January 2011 and according to new reform, dividends

                                                                                                                        19
must be paid in 60 days instead of 6 months allowed             and what is prohibited: anything can potentially used
     earlier. It is unfortunate that often companies that            against you. And what is most important, the general
     underperform in terms of governance make public                 understanding of the potential benefits of improving
     spotlights, and that creates a biased image of the whole        the image of the company is just not yet entrenched
     market.                                                         the business-community. Old habits die hard, especially
                                                                     when the top down environment in the form of rule of
     When investing in Russia, it is vital to know the controlling   law is hardly supportive.
     shareholders’ background and their ambition with
     regard to the company. Cases of speculators who wrap
     up poor businesses in attractive packages in order to           A closer look reveals, however, that there are amazingly
     make a quick sale are not uncommon. At the same time,           many Russian companies that aspire to become a
     there are plenty of new generation entrepreneurs truly          modern company by means of governance and investor
     interested in long-term value creation. Making a clear          relations. They have moved out of the “comfort” zone
     distinction is crucial but definitely not an easy task.         and working in the name of gaining foreign interest and
     The main obstacle to make things easier is the still poor       having an international investor base. In many cases,
     information disclosure habit in Russia. Among the main          they just do not know how to communicate their efforts
     reasons behind that is the Russian legal and financial          to the public. This is where dedicated research and
     infrastructure that is still underdeveloped. Also, tax          engagement based analysis can make a big difference.
     legislation is deficient, which makes companies afraid of       Management meetings and thorough homework will
     disclosing information as it is not clear what is allowed       help to find the true gems in the market.




                                                                     A veteran of the Russian financial markets, Maxim
                                                                     was advising Pohjola Asset Management’s OP 650m
                                                                     EUR OP Russia Fund prior to joining Northern Star in
                                                                     2011. During his tenure with Pohjola from 2008, OP
                                                                     Fund was firmly at the top of peer group rankings.
       Head of Russian Equities




                                                                     Previously, Maxim was Director of International Equity
                                                                     Sales at Deutsche Bank, Moscow. Having more than 20
                                                                     years of experience in Russian and emerging market
       Maxim Achkasov




                                                                     equities from New York, London, Moscow and Helsinki,
                                                                     Maxim deep knowledge of the Russian equity markets
                                                                     and boasts a unique network of connections in local
                                                                     business community.




20
Integrated Research the Only Way Forward
Research is the cornerstone of Limestone, and the
whole Northern Star Group’s, investment process.               Development    opportunities
While necessarily effective in its traditional fundamental     in this field are endless,
focus, the true uniqueness in the approach lies in
the continuing development of the integration of
                                                               providing further prospects
environmental, social and governance (ESG) research to         for streamlining of the
fundamental valuation.                                         methods and practices we use
Since the last Yearbook, we have developed further
                                                               in investment decisions that
the concept of including ESG assessment to company             take into consideration ESG
valuations and have been able to reach remarkable              aspects.
results. Our approach to responsible investing is
obviously integration, defined as an inclusion of            In previous Yearbooks we have described the grading
ESG considerations to traditional financial analysis.        mechanism that is implemented in calculation of cost of
Theoretically, integration should belong under the broad     capital, which has been developed in order to provide
SRI umbrella that is regarded to lead to mainstreaming       distinct tools for our research analysts for uniform
of the process. Emerging markets are not broad based         assessment of ESG factors. In addition to in-house
enough to enable thematic approach that is regarded          work, we have been communicating our message and
more fashionable in the developed world. Therefore,          have become even more visible in the SRI community.
already before the launch of Limestone New Europe            Our presentations in several high profile responsible
Fund, it was obvious to us that while traditional approach   investment conferences and investor events have
provides a starting point for ESG implementation to          received a lot of positive feedback. It is understandable
fundamental analysis, it did not offer any readymade         that our structured and scalable solution to integration
solutions.                                                   raises widespread interest among industry professionals

                                                                                                                         21
who have mostly seen and been sold traditional ratings-                   universe was graded slightly below average, and the
     based qualitative assessment methodology that has                         fund portfolio constituents were doing significantly
     little to do with investment analysis.                                    better. Altogether, the grades give a snapshot of the
                                                                               management quality and awareness of environmental
     Our methodology in the nutshell is the following: an                      and social issues, as there can’t be perfect environmental
     ESG matrix is developed, where the analyst can rate                       management and a total disregard of social issues
     each company by these three factors that combined                         within one company.


        There are better and worse                                             Having built that assessment mechanism, without
                                                                               additional tools, every individual result would depend
        companies in the investment                                            only on single analyst’s subjective view, which would
        universe and their respective                                          not ensure the comparability of results that is needed
        risk levels are taken into                                             for portfolio construction purposes. Thus, although
                                                                               the analyst responsible for assessing companies knows
        account in assignment of                                               more than anybody else on the subject and is most
        target price through cost of                                           qualified for granting the grades, supporting tools for
        equity calculation.                                                    reaching a certain degree of uniformity in final grades
                                                                               are required.
     will create an overall ESG score of the company. To
     make the building blocks simple, a rating score from                      For building the tools, the starting point would be the
     1-5 is applied, where the score of 3 will not ignite any                  assessment of information, analytical equipment and
     changes to the cost of equity and each notch below or                     concepts that we had at hand. One of the key building
     above respectively adds or subtracts basis points from                    blocks we derive from screening of the investment
     cost of equity. In the selected scale of adjustment, the                  universe is sector based risk level assessment. Obviously,
     cost of equity can vary by 240 bps on scores from one                     oil companies have higher environmental risk than
     to five. Screening of the investment universe and fund                    banks, whereas social risk is higher in construction
     portfolio at one point indicated that the average score in                and retail than in technology, for example. Therefore,
     the universe was 2.85 and that of the portfolio was 3.9.                  mapping of risk on Environmental and Social scale
     Therefore, although 3 different analysts were granting                    for each company in the universe serves as the core
     the grades independently, the average company in the                      concept in construction of risk assessment tools.

              LOW


                                                                                             Media                 IT Services

                                                                                     Telco               Finance



                                                              Real Estate      Tourism & Leisure
               Social Risk




                                                 Automotive
                                                                            Pharma


                                   Utilities                                    Food
                                               Construction                                     Retail
                             Oil & Gas

                                         Metals & Mining

              HIGH                                                 Environmental Risk                                            LOW


     Source: Limestone




22
The risk profile of different sectors                          information available and are therefore most qualified
Position of sectors in Environmental and Social scale          for such task. Quality of governance and approach of
is arbitrary and in real life the differences between          executive management towards ESG issues are the
risk levels are narrower than can be deducted from             prevailing criteria affecting all relevant metrics. In
the graph above. Inherent company risk level provides          addition to implementation of relevant policies and
only the first step for assigning ESG grades and               availability of documentation on governance, social
adjustment to cost of equity. When the starting point,         and environmental aspects are analysed. In addition,
or base risk as we call it, is set, the risk evaluation will   community support, stakeholder relations and charity
be adjusted. Information required for evaluation is            work are also taken into consideration. Description of
gathered by sector analysts that have the widest set of        the methodology is depicted on the following graph:




          Factors                     In-House
                                      Research
        Environmental Risk


                                      Risk Based Grade              Modified Grade                   Cost of Equity


            Social Risk




                                     Risk Based Grade




In New Europe and emerging markets in general the key          can also be downgraded, i.e. the risk level can also be
risk factor is management quality or governance in more        increased from the base level when our analyst has proof
broad terms. Therefore, assessment of management               that e.g. social aspects of the business are disregarded
quality is the decisive factor behind ESG risk assessment      or there is evidence of inferior management quality.
in every step and analysts will pay significant attention      Also here governance is decisive. For adjustment of
to it throughout the process. It is the dominant factor        risk level, based on additional information gathered
and in every step of evaluation governance is the silver       and processed by analysts, we introduced a descriptive
lining that at the end will be decisive. The base risk         tool Risk Adjustment Levers or RAL, as illustrated on the
can move to both positive and negative side, meaning           picture below.
that e.g. initially low risk profile of financial companies



                                   HIGH                                          LOW
       Environmental Risk




           Social Risk
                                   HIGH                                          LOW
                                                                                               GOVERNANCE


                                   HIGH                                          LOW
       Management Quality




                                                                                                                           23
Risk Adjustment Levers                                        This happens when we have proof of irresponsible
     The underlying principle in RAL is that every company         development, e.g. there might be labour relations’
     is put on respective scale from environmental and             issues in certain telecom companies that usually should
     social perspective, based on a pre-assessed sector risk.      be of low risk, or predatory lending practices in banks
     Separate issue is managment quality that is given its         that by default have low sector ESG risk. That will lead
     respective position on the weak-versus-strong scale.          to increase in cost of capital and lower fair value target.
     Unlike environmental and social evaluation, there is no
     pre-set base, and evaluation is already based on available      There is no doubt in our minds
     detailed information, not just sector risk. So, the levers
     are moved towards positive or negative side of the axes
                                                                     that ESG integration is really
     according of the results of research. Final position of         the only way forward.
     the company on these three measures will serve as the
     foundation in assigning of grades and adjustment to           Through adaptation of risk adjustment levers we have
     cost of equity. Accordingly, position at the high risk area   provided our investment team an additional tool to
     by environmental and social risk indicates grades 1-2 on      better grasp risk profiles of the companies and to
     our ESG matrics for these items, 3 is average and 4 and       further enhance the integration of ESG principles into
     5 indicate already superior performance and lowering          financial modelling and investment decisionmaking.
     risk position. Practical application has proven that          However, the road does not stop here and we expect
     we have very few companies with grades in extreme             the work on research process to continue. The goal
     positions like 1 or 5.                                        is to get the environmental, social and governance
                                                                   research completely out from the „soft values“ closet
     In essence, each company’s starting position is               and make them a natural and fully accepted part of
     determined by the industry risk profile, and then the         everyday decisionmaking. Now, with the Limestone
     analyst starts to look for justifications for moving the      New Europe SRI Fund having 3 years of excellent track
     levers in either way, preferrably towards lower risk.         record to present, we have even more confidence in the
     It is not uncommon that companies will be given the           righteousness of our path.
     final grade that is less than their starting position.




                                                                   Rein is heading the research process at Limestone and
                                                                   Northern Star Group. Before co-founding Limestone in
                                                                   2007, Rein run the research team in Hansa Investment
                                                                   Management, the largest investment manager in
                                                                   the Baltic region, and managed Hansa Central Asia
                                                                   Equity Fund, the first dedicated UCITS fund investing
                                                                   in the region. Started as an equity analyst at Suprema
                                                                   Securities in 1997, Rein later held the positions of Senior
       Rein Ojavere, CFA
       Head of Research




                                                                   Analyst, Associate Director and Director until 2006. He
                                                                   participated in a number of landmark M&A deals and
                                                                   IPO’s in the Baltic region with main responsibility areas
                                                                   of valuation and structuring. Rein is a CFA Charterholder
                                                                   and holds MSc in Economics and Business Administration
                                                                   degree from University of Tartu.


24
Serbia
         25
Country Focus: Serbia, the Last European Frontier
     Republic of Serbia is a landlocked country in the            few. Agricultural products such as wheat, maize, sugar
     south-eastern Europe, covering the southern part             beets, sunflower, raspberries, beef, pork and milk are
     of the Carpathian basin. Serbia has borders with             produced.
     seven countries: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia and
     Montenegro to the west, Kosovo and Macedonia to the          The capital of Serbia, Belgrade, has a population of
     south, Bulgaria and Romania to the east and Hungary to       close to 1.5 million out of 7.3 million in the country.
     the north. Covered with rich fertile plains in the north,    Serbian national identity began emerging in the 8th
     limestone ranges and basins in the east, and ancient         century, with the ruling of prince Višeslav. The country’s
     mountains and hills in the south-east, the total territory   territories expanded until being defeated by the Turks
     of 77,474 square kilometres ranks Serbia the 117th in        in 1389. In the next century, Ottoman Empire exerted
     the world.                                                   complete control over all Serb lands for nearly 4
                                                                  centuries. Serbia formally gained independence in
     Serbia offers a range of natural minerals. As of             1878 at the Congress of Berlin which was regained in
     January 2010, it has proved reserves of oil and gas          2006 after a number of political and military struggles.
     of 78 million barrels and 50 billion cubic meters,           In 2009, Serbia submitted its application for European
     respectively. Additionally, the surface holds coal, iron     Union membership.
     ore, copper, zinc, gold and silver reservoirs, to name a

26
2005    2006    2007      2008      2009      2010     2011F     2012F

       Nominal GDP (EUR bn)                   20.4    23.6    29.1      33.4      30.0      29.5      34.3     36.4

       Real GDP (% YoY)                        5.6     5.2     6.9       5.5      -3.1      1.8       3.0       3.8

       Industrial production (% YoY)           0.7     4.7     3.7       4.5      -12.1     2.9       4.8       6.0

       Unemployment rate                      20.8    20.9     9.7      13.7      16.1      19.2      19.0     18.5

       CPI, year end (%)                      171.0    6.0    11.0       8.6       6.6      10.3      8.5       5.7

       Monthly average gross wages (EUR)      307.7   377.2   484.4     561.1    470.3     460.5     502.4     532.0

       Gross nominal wages (% YoY)            24.1    24.4    22.0      17.9       8.8      7.5       8.0       9.0

       Foreign direct investment (% of GDP)    5.9    14.4     8.6       6.0       4.7      3.4       4.0       7.0

       Budget balance (% of GDP)               0.7    -1.5    -1.9      -2.6      -4.3      -4.5      -4.1     -3.5

       Public debt (% of GDP)                                 31.0      27.0      34.0      43.0      42.0     43.0

       Trade balance (% of GDP)               -20.3   -20.5   -22.8     -22.6     -17.0    -16.2     -15.6     -15.4

       10-year interest rate (avg)             5.6     5.5     5.6       6.4       5.7      3.9       5.5       5.5

Source: Erste, Raiffeisen, IMF




Development and Challenges                                       of sustainable future growth. World Bank in its report
Following the democratic changes in 2000, Serbian                has praised Serbia for some reform achievements
economy witnessed relatively high annual economic                as already having very positive effect on the private
growth rates of 5.7 percent on average from 2000 to              businesses operating environment. Last building blocks
2008. The average growth in Western Balkan region was            soon to be put in place, not least because the promise
5 percent. That supported one of the highest levels of           of eventual EU membership, we share the opinion that
foreign direct investment inflows in Serbia during that          Serbia will be one of the greatest European success
period. Due to severe impact of the financial crisis,            stories in the coming years.
the Serbian market has been largely abandoned by
international investors in the past three years. Together        In the “Ease of doing business” business climate
with the positive signs of recovery, interest is, though,        rankings from IMF, Serbia still ranked just 89th of 183
returning.                                                       in the world (Poland at 70, Croatia at 84, Greece at 109,
                                                                 and Russia at 123) in 2010. Companies operating in the
The biggest challenges for the Serbian transition                country have brought up issues of political instability,
process for becoming an open-market economy and                  practices of informal sector and limited access to
a modern European state seem to be behind by now.                finance. Dedicated efforts to tackle the issues hindering
The painful and violent break up process of Yugoslavia           a better ranking were started in 2009 and are at their
in 90’s, climaxed by extensive NATO bombing of Serbia            final stages of implementation.
in 1999, set the country lagging its regional peers. Over
the last few years Serbia has made great efforts to shrug        Another tool to strengthen and accelerate the
off the legacy of that unfortunate period, including the         transition is the EU integration process. It provides a
much publicized catching and extraditing alleged war             unique incentive for political and economic reform and
criminals.                                                       aims to bring the country up to European standards in
                                                                 all areas covered by EU treaties. Following free travel
The business infrastructure modernization is still in            arrangements from 2010, accession talks have begun
early stages. Governance regulations and enterprise              in 2011 and an official opinion regarding Serbia’s
restructuring laws, and competition policies are already         membership is expected by 2012. Based on our hands
recognized at the highest levels as the important pillars        on experience from the region, this kind of run up


                                                                                                                             27
period to EU membership could be very rewarding for          Corporate social responsibility (CSR) approach is
     investors willing to take on some liquidity risk.            relatively new to Serbia. Although awareness of this
                                                                  exists, it is mostly on the level of concept-formation
                                                                  rather than on the level of locally realized practice. Yet
       Serbia is the last country
                                                                  it does not encompass all of the companies.
       in Europe with critical scale
       for financial investors to go                              In order to promote the emerging interest in CSR in
                                                                  Serbia, many projects have been put together. In 2004,
       through the accession process.                             Responsible Business Initiative was introduced and in
                                                                  2008, Business Leaders Forum was established. While
     Capital Markets and                                          the first one was founded to inspire, institutionalize
     Corporate Governance                                         and put into practice the concept of corporate social
     Belgrade stock exchange is considered one of the oldest      responsibility, the forum actually gathers Serbia’s
     exchanges in Europe, having been founded in 1894             socially responsible companies to one network. These
     to promote, facilitate and regulate trading in various       companies have a shared goal of promoting CSR and
     commodities. In the beginning of 20th century, the most      operating in a sustainable way to benefit the interests
     wanted and stable securities listed on the exchange          of the whole community. On one hand, the forum is
     were government securities. The rule to observe was “if      designed to encourage Serbian companies and their
     you want to eat well, invest in shares. But if you want to   employees to contribute to social and environmental
     sleep well, invest in government bonds”, according to        causes as part of their everyday operations. On the
     the exchange’s homepage. In 1953 the stock exchange          other side, it also has a task of connecting business
     was closed to be reborn again in 1989 as Yugoslav            leaders to government representatives to identify social
     Capital Market that changed its name to Belgrade Stock       and economic problems and find appropriate solutions.
     Exchange three years later. The BELEX trading system         It’s a start.
     was launched in 2001.
                                                                   We have met many managers
     There is a corporate governance code in place for listed
     companies or others who wish to get acquainted with
                                                                   during our company meetings
     and implement corporate governance principles. It             in Serbia who are very well
     depicts a set of rules and principles expressed through       aware of the values of CSR
     recommendations which should be implemented.
     The code was adopted in 2008. On stock market’s
                                                                   and are pursuing the practices
     home page, there is Corporate Governance Scorecard            in their companies for all the
     introduced for companies to fill and evaluate their           right reasons.
     corporate governance practices on different aspects
     of the issue. That helps them improve their knowledge
     about corporate governance factors and also see where
     their efforts are still lacking.




28
Companies in Focus
Tigar                                                        compact and well-equipped industrial complex, Tigar 3,
A company established in 1935 in the southern Serbian        which enjoys a surface area of some 22 hectares, and
town of Pirot, has transformed itself from the simple        encompasses cutting-edge industrial capacities in one
car tire manufacturer for the entire Yugoslavia into         of the region’s largest industrial zones. Tigar operates
world class rubber footwear and technical rubber             now in attractive sector, as market share of rubber
specialist. Being historically the largest producer of car   boots on global scale is increasing, as leather boots are
tires, the management realised in the early stage that       significantly more expensive. Also competitive situation
in highly competitive international environment with         is favourable, as there is only one competitor left in
ever expanding R&D budgets of major competitors,             Europe and there is some competition from China.
there is no place for a small independent tire producer.     During the years Tigar has acquired several brands
Therefore, more than 10 years ago the Company started        and has developed its own brands and introduced
to look for strategic partner and in 2001 Tigar formed       specialised footwear retail chain in Serbia. Overall, the
a joint-venture with Michelin that was financially           revenues from rubber footwear sales are expected to
supported by EBRD and IFC. By 2009 the Company               more than double in 2011.
exited the tire business and focused on production of
rubber footwear and technical rubber products.               Tigar also owns and operates the only national chain
                                                             of car service stations and distributes tires, batteries
With an investment of over 23 million Euros in               and motor oils in Serbia. This forms a unique asset with
development, reengineering and upgrading of                  high potential for disposal to strategic investors that are
manufacturing facilities, the company has created a          expanding their operations in the CEE region, where


                                                                                                                           29
Serbia is the natural next market to enter. In addition to   enables AIK Banka to be present in all important regions
     excellent competitive position, the Serbian market will      of the country. As a typical wholesale bank, AIK provides
     also witness high growth, as only from 2011 all cars are     various banking services across all main business
     obliged to use winter tires.                                 segments. Its retail banking services include various
                                                                  accounts, credits, and deposits while corporate banking
     Tigar has made good progress in the field of CSR. It         offers short term credit, credits for both export financing
     has implemented ISO and OHSAS certificates, as well          and development financing, as well as corporate
     as established modern, highly efficient production           depositing products. Great variety of payment cards,
     facilities with low level of energy use and minimum          safe-depositing, money transfer, and electronic banking
     waste. In 2010 the Company commissioned the plant            services are also on the offer. The bank has also built a
     for production of recycled-rubber products. Corporate        reputation of a strong dealer-broker company on local
     Governance practices are of high standard, developed         capital markets. Among other Serbian banks, AIK Banka
     in cooperation with IFC, and they are exceeding the          especially differentiates from the rest of the group by
     requirements of local stock exchange. Tigar is also          its exceptional capitalization level with CAR above 30%,
     considered to have one of the most professional investor     together with excellent operational efficiency: cost to
     relation services in Serbia, which Limestone team has        income ratio is well below 30%.
     experienced several times in company meetings during
     our trips to Serbia.                                         Such a strong market position combined with
                                                                  remarkable development potential of the country itself,
                                                                  adds further responsibilty for AIK Banka in order to
                                                                  step up as a pioneer in shaping sustainable values in
                                                                  local society. Although there is a long way to go, the
                                                                  awareness is there, as Limestone team concluded after
                                                                  meeting the newly appointed Chairman in Belgrade
                                                                  in spring 2011. Strength of the capital base, massive
                                                                  earnings potential and extremely low valuation make
                                                                  AIK an exellent case for any investor who is looking to
                                                                  get exposure to Serbian development.

                                                                  Energoprojekt
                                                                  Energoprojekt is the largest engineering and
                                                                  construction group in Serbia. Through its network
                                                                  of regional branches, subsidiaries, joint ventures
                                                                  and other corporate entities, Energoprojekt controls
                                                                  projects in 24 countries across four continents. From
     AIK Banka                                                    the Yugoslav days, Energoprojekt has retained its
     Founded in 1976 as the internal bank for the Agro-           position as one of the major design, engineering and
     industrial Combine of Nis, AiK Banka has emerged             construction companies in the South-eastern Europe.
     into one of the leading wholesale banks in Serbia. AIK       With a solid reputation, and revenues of approximately
     Banka obtained the license from the National Bank of         €200 million per annum and annual contracts in excess
     Yugoslavia in August 1993 and was restructured as a          of €400 million, Energoprojekt presents a very good
     joint-stock company in June 1995. From October 2005          platform for regional expansion. The investments in
     company`s shares are listed on the Belgrade Stock            infrastructure and energy projects in Serbia and South-
     Exchange and in September 2006, Greece’s ATE Bank            Eastern Europe are expected to exceed €3bn over the
     became the major shareholder in the Bank by acquiring        next several years, from which the company will get its
     20 percent stake. Current network of 66 branches             fair share. From July, 2007, Energoprojekt is listed on

30
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011
Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011

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Limestone Sustainability Yearbook 2011

  • 3. Interaction Transparency Knowledge Value Northern Star Northern Star is a global multi-boutique asset manager specializing in active investment management and strategic partnerships with clients. Established in Helsinki by a senior team of financial industry professionals, Northern Star is striving to become a leading international investment management business with scale and institutional credibility. Leveraging its partnership with Limestone, Northern Star is pioneering in introducing responsible investing in worldwide emerging and frontier markets. Limestone Investment Management Limestone is a specialist Emerging European equity fund manager based in Tallinn. The company was founded in 2007 and is managed by its owners. We focus exclusively on delivering outstanding investment performance to our clients. Our home region and investment universe, Central and Eastern Europe, is one of the most dynamic investment markets in the world. Limestone is one of the very first New Europe based investment managers that integrates the concepts of socially responsible investment and sustainable development into fundamental research process as essential factors for long term performance and risk management. Limestone is a signatory to the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (UN PRI) and European SRI Transparency Code The European SRI Transparency logo signifies that the Limestone commits to provide accurate, adequate and timely information to enable stakeholders, in particular consumers, to understand the Sustainable Responsible Investment (SRI) policies and practices relating to the fund. Detailed information about the European SRI Transparency Code can be found on www.eurosif.org, and information of the SRI policies and practices of the Limestone SRI Fund can be found at Limestone website. The Transparency Code are managed by Eurosif, an independent organisation. The European SRI Transparency Logo reflects the fund manager’s commitment as detailed above and should not be taken as an endorsement of any particular company, organisation or individual 3
  • 4. Dear Reader If there is one clear message to learn from the financial crisis that has rocked the world for the better part of last four years, it is that change is needed. From the sudden understanding that borrowed welfare is not an asset but liability, to the realisation that the sacred ratings that the entire financial system relies upon are nothing more than more or less educated guesses, there are signs everywhere that the current Western financial model is not entirely sustainable. Find-the-greater-fool in highest possible frequency has become an ever more popular game in stock markets, places that were created to mediate capital between investors and entrepreneurs, diversifying the risks and distributing the gains. We believe it is time to return to the very basics of investing, to do it in a way it was meant to be. Limestone took up the task of introducing sustainable investing practices in Eastern Europe four years ago. Meanwhile, we found a like-minded partner in Northern Star and decided to create together something truly unique: a global multi boutique investment house with common sustainable investment framework. Northern Star Group brings together Limestone’s team with experience from emerging Europe and ambitious international investment professionals with their own experiences from all over the world. This creates synergy that will lead to a all new type of investment culture with sight and focus on long term gains arising from sustainable growth, something that will always outperform eventually. Limestone New Europe Fund has reached three year milestone, often considered by institutional investors the minimum proof of meaningful performance history. Meanwhile, Northern Star Group has launched two new funds, dedicated to deliver the best there is from other emerging regions of the world. A concept, contrarian to the mainstream world-view, of looking at the emerging world as a collection of investment themes driven by long term demographic and social shifts, as opposed to a political map of separate countries, is the underlying idea of Globetrotter Fund. Northern Star Russia was created to answer to the demand for a more sophisticated view on Russia than presented by the usual index driven mega funds playing the ever more virtual commodities-game. While GDP in most rich economies is still below its level at the end of 2007, emerging economies’ output has jumped by almost one fifth over the same period. The rich world’s woes have clearly hastened the shift in global economic power towards the emerging markets. The long-term outlook for emerging economies remains bright, with less debt, more growth and huge potential to lift productivity. Investment flows will follow. Northern Star was created to accommodate that shift in a pioneering way. Building on long experience from global capital markets and grass root level ground work practice, Northern Star and Limestone team has something novel to offer. We sincerely hope that this book will achieve its primary goal and convince you that it is not only possible to do things differently but it is also necessary in order to survive and prosper in these turbulent times. The world is full of opportunities. Tomi Långström Alvar Roosimaa CEO, Northern Star CIO, Limestone 4
  • 5. Contents Northern Star Group: Nourishing the Best of Boutique Culture 6 Responsible Investing Makes Sense From Day One 8 Nothing Sacrificed and Whole Lot Gained 8 Leveraging Limestone’s Three Year Success Track 8 Best Risk Management Tool for Emerging Markets 8 Integrated Research as Yin and Yang of Successful Investing 9 Limestone New Europe Fund 10 Update And Outlook 11 Globetrotter – Unlocking the Undiscovered World 14 What Are Frontier Markets? 14 Clear Investing Principles: Key to Success 16 Investment Themes in Focus 17 In Russia, Governance Is Everything 19 Integrated Research the Only Way Forward 21 Country Focus: Serbia, the Last European Frontier 25 Development and Challenges 27 Capital Markets and Corporate Governance 28 Companies in Focus 29 Why Governance Matters: From Investing To Litigation in A&D Pharma 32 Northern Star Group Responsible Investment Principles 34 Framework for ESG Evaluation 34 Evaluating Corporate Governance 36 5
  • 6. Northern Star Group: Nourishing the Best of Boutique Culture The post crisis investment community is looking for new and were embedded with poor internal governance to solutions with better alignment of motivation between enter into anything complex or risky. investors and managers and more straightforward value and risk proposition. In the boom days when funds The recognition is universal that even when it is obvious could pick and choose investors and assets piled up that small management controlled investment teams without too much effort, these were easily overlooked have higher motivation and potential to outperform, – unless things went horribly wrong. business risks often outweigh that prospect. People who are good at trading or investing are not necessarily Recent investment innovation has focused on themes good at running businesses. Growth is hard to achieve like new asset classes and allocation techniques, new now without building a robust infrastructure with high risk and return enhancing tools, theme investing, and quality internal controls. new business models. Institutions that have gained the most from that innovation had strong investment beliefs Northern Star has been created to tap this opportunity which they were able to implement in a disciplined way, by creating a multi-boutique asset management house: often benefiting from early mover advantage. a base where talented fund managers could operate and share resources. A flight to quality and size often means Institutions that lost the most were victims of their a flight to “boring”, or benchmark-hugging strategies – herd instinct combined with low engagement with their entrepreneurs supported by institutional infrastructure asset managers. Usually these were lacking also skills are the solution. By partnering up with Limestone, 6
  • 7. Northern Star got to an instant start with licensed that are an opportunity for investment managers with Luxembourg based infrastructure, and a talented team analytical resources and investment infrastructure that had been building institutional quality service for capable to collect and process non-standardized data, the last three years. including non-financial information. Creating something new is an opportunity to combine Asset managers with success have often had strong all the newest and best innovations into one. In addition overlay of human judgement in risk models and to modern business concept, Northern Star is focusing investment processes. The example of Limestone on the integration of two other areas of investing that investment team being a pioneer in East Europe is promise to be market share winners in the coming broadened up to be the core element of the whole years: responsible investing and emerging markets. Northern Star group and its products and services. Our multi-boutique business model is determined to Non-financial risks demand strong human judgement, be decisively outward looking and more ideas seeking. disciplined processes and high engagement with Special insights and foresight will be driven from investment targets. Mere lip service, such as having learning-by-doing, learning by experimentation and signed a global principle, can be a good start, but learning from others. unfortunately too often leaves everything else unchanged within the investment process. Responsible investing is not so recent innovation, but is undergoing a Creating something new is an transformation to adapt to real needs by real investors. opportunity to combine all the There is still a rather small group of asset managers and institutional investors who take it seriously. Ahead of newest and best innovations the crowd, Northern Star is being ESG implementation into one. pioneer in new geographical areas and in new ways to integrate ESG into traditional valuation methodology. We may not be able to change the world, but we will seek to be better by putting into action such investment Over the coming years, massive debt burdens will be beliefs which we believe to create an alignment of a drag on rich countries’ growth. At the other end, the interest with our long term clients and ourselves. One long-term outlook for emerging economies remains such belief is having integrated ESG as unique value bright, with less debt, more favourable demography driver. Northern Star products are often classified as and huge potential to lift productivity. Investing in high alpha seeking against indices. We believe that by developing markets is traditionally considered to carry being benchmark agnostic against traditional indices a higher degree of risk, and the main reason is the can actually lead into less risky portfolios when ESG is information problem: company specific data is not fully integrated into investment process. readily available. The pricing inefficiencies created by 7
  • 8. Responsible Investing Makes Sense From Day One Northern Star has taken on a unique challenge to build that goal and, as with every new thing in an established up an emerging markets multi-boutique platform with environment with sticky traditions, more threats and a dedicated focus on sustainability and responsible immediate problems are on the visible surface than investing. There are no readymade solutions towards quick wins. Nothing Sacrificed and social and governance analysis before. The first three Whole Lot Gained years have proven highly successful: fund’s long term Mainstream investment community still views anything returns are at the top of CEE ex-Russia peer group that has to do with social responsibility or sustainability without having to compromise on our standards. The with a fair share of suspicion. Being pioneers in the area, track record has also been characterized by a constant we have had to spend considerable amount of effort search for more effective ways of assessing the extra- to demystify the concept of ESG research and social financial side of companies. The approach has earned responsibility in investing. It is the one of the basic praise from several investors, encouraging Northern traits of human nature, the present-bias, that needs to Star to strive for a group wide sustainable investment be taken good care of in order for SRI to break out into policy development. mainstream. Prevailing view of SRI investing is that it requires for immediate sacrifices in the performance Best Risk Management Tool and selection of opportunities, for the sake of doubtful for Emerging Markets benefits in the unclear future. This should not be the All investment portfolios would benefit from managing case. Our minimum exclusion and integrated research ESG risks, but it is in emerging markets where the approach adds value from day one without any degree is most acute. Gathering and assessing sacrifices. We hope that by increasing the size of our environmental, social and governance information, business we reach more investors and help turn socially and limiting exposure to risks associated with extra responsible investing concept from „frown upon“ into financial factors significantly reduces „tail risk“ – the „smiled upon“. risk of unlikely events causing catastrophic damage. The real challenge hereby is the significant information Leveraging Limestone’s Three Year problem. This can only be tackled by building up an Success Track inhouse research process that is capable of gathering Limestone New Europe Socially Responsible Fund has the necessary information from outside the public data since 2008 served as a real life experiment. Nobody had vendors’ services, and to integrate it into company tried to do fundamentals driven all-cap active investing valuation methodology. in Emerging Europe with integrated environmental, 8
  • 9. The Yin and Yang of Investment Analysis A dynamic, unified relationship exists between financial and extra financial information. Omitting either part leads to insufficient knowledge about the company and creates exposure to unforeseen risks. Rational Visible Hard Facts Weak financials diminish Financial strength opportunities for innovation and sustainable development YANG Balanced analysis can be Financial results achieved by evaluating both parts. Tensions in both parts can be creative and YIN constraining Corporate governance Environmental and Poor corporate governance social sustainability and management of environmental and social Managerial strength risks leads to fines, bad press, loss of customers, and valuable employees – reflected in financials. Intuitive Invisible Soft Facts 9
  • 10. Limestone New Europe Fund Limestone New Europe SRI Fund celebrated its third New Europe, and invest investors’ funds in their publicly anniversary in August 2010. Launched in the wake of the traded stock at the best possible terms. The ultimate worst financial crisis in modern history – a few weeks goal is to outperform any competitive peer and before Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy filing – the fund investable market proxy in any three year time period. was the first equity fund managed from New Europe To achieve that goal the management team employs to incorporate sustainability factors in its investment rigorous bottom up investment process, which is based process. The fund has been equally successful in on an in-house developed research framework and pioneering in corporate social responsibility in tools, including unique ESG factor integration serving New Europe and producing strongly outperforming primarily as a risk management tool. investment returns. The fund has a simple and straightforward purpose: to find the best companies with the highest upside in Limestone New Europe Fund STOXX EU Enlarged Total Return 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 July 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 April 09 July 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 April 10 July 10 Oct 10 jan 11 April 11 Source: Bloomberg 10
  • 11. Update And Outlook Looking back to last year, and reviewing year-old from Baa3 to Baa2 with a stable outlook. The increase forecasts, it feels like deja vu. The final run-up to is a consequence of the continuing fiscal discipline, the Limestone New Europe Fund’s three year milestone improved institutional stability as well as the relative was again characterized by uncertainty about the flexibility of the financial system, the report reads. sustainability of global recovery. Plenty of one off Bulgaria is effectively running a balanced budget and threats and hurdles kept popping up, like US debt ceiling has very low levels of the public debt, something that debate, earthquake in Japan and of course the Greeks is quite rare these days. In addition, Moody’s assessed keeping the financial markets all over the world their hostage, threatening to blow up Eurozone. No wonder then that external factors were heavily prevailing over While the world was holding its local progress reports in setting the sentiment for breath during most of the spring Central and Eastern European markets. and summer over Eurozone and Looking beyond the generic risk-on and risk-off market US debt, news from New Europe view that dominated investment flows, New Europe has grew constantly more positive. shown surprisingly strong recovery from the crisis. From economic to political spectrum, all signs show healthy the public finance and the Bulgarian banking system restructuring and quick return to convergence path with to remain out of the influence of the Greek debt growth returning to long term double-the-EU-average crisis owing to the considerable liquidity and capital already in 2011. While the world was holding its breath buffers. EBRD revised upward its forecast for Romanian during most of the spring and summer over Eurozone economic growth, saying it expects harsh austerity and US debt, news from New Europe grew constantly measures implemented under a multilateral financial more positive. program will pay off. And again, EBRD also assessed Greek influence and concluded that Greece’s seemingly The European Council concluded that Croatia is ready to turn for the worse is unlikely to push Romanian economy become the 28th member of the European Union and into recession. And Serbia, the last European “outcast” accession treaty should be signed during 2011, which with size, made a giant leap towards EU accession when will enable the country to become a full member state it caught the last missing war criminals and handed in 2013. Moody’s raised the credit rating of Bulgaria them over to Hague court. 11
  • 12. COUNTRY, 2011E POPULATION GDP (PPP) NOMINAL GDP PER 2011F WAGE/MONTHS PUBLIC DEBT BUDGET DEFICIT MARKET CAP STOCKS MAIN INDEX FREEFLOAT RETURN FROM MN PER CAPITA CAPITA 2012F %YOY € %GDP 2012F €MN ‘07 HIGH Poland 38.2 70% 11.5 3.6% 904 54 -3.2% 418 118 WIG20 45% -39% Czech Rep 10.5 91% 15.9 2.9% 1069 40 -3.8% 27 32.7 PX 40% -48% Romania 21.5 44% 6.8 3.5% 472 35 -4.0% 82 13.4 BET 20% -55% Bulgaria 7.4 47% 5.6 3.5% 353 16 -2.1% 98 5.0 SOFIX 25% -81% Hungary 10.0 69% 11.5 2.8% 880 80 -3.6% 55 17.7 BUX 53% -38% Croatia 4.3 65% 11.6 1.8% 1043 55 -4.8% 256 19.2 CROBEX 30% -63% Serbia 7.3 40% 5.0 4.0% 493 42 -3.0% 90 8.7 BELEX15 20% -81% Estonia 1.3 68% 12.3 3.7% 792 8 -1.8% 15 1.3 OMXT 30% -44% Slovenia 2.0 103% 20.0 2.4% 1405 36 -5.0% 34 3.2 SBITOP 25% -38% Lithuania 3.1 63% 9.7 3.8% 614 37 -4.5% 38 5.5 OMXV 30% -75% New europe (10) 106 66% 11.0 3.2% 803 40 -3.6% 1113 207 DJ STOXX 42% -49% Euro area (17) 332 100% 38.6 1.8% 2450 81 -4.0% 6 700 STOXX 600 79% -42% share of... 32% 66% 28% 178% 33% 50% 3.1% Source: GDP: World Bank , GDP Forecast: IMF World Economic Recent financial crisis and subsequent reforms have turned New Europe into a Outlook April 2011, Budget Deficit: Eurostat financially sound and very competitive region within the borderless European Union. The above selection of news delibaretly focuses to room for future growth definitely is. the Southern part of New Europe, the least liked by The importance of Eurozone stability for New Europe is investors in the crisis aftermath and therefore the hard to overestimate. At the same time it is important most neglected. Most markets in that region trade to understand the difference between the direct not much higher than at the bottom of the crisis in impact on domestic economy of CEE countries and Spring 2009. We see it as an extraordinary investment the potential damage that would come from another opportunity, something alike the second half of 2009 wave of risk aversion and renewed general perception downgrade, would Greek crisis escalate further. The In the „periphery“ of Eastern former is relatively moderate and the effects have already run their course. The latter, however, is what Europe we find the cheapest moves financial markets and short term asset prices; companies with the most to the “risk off ” trade that pushed prices lower in CEE is the direct consequence of that. benefit from both the short term recovery and the longer Naturally, all depends on the scale of crisis escalation. term convergence. A real renewed economic slowdown in the Eurozone would cause stronger decline in CEE exports and growth when the fund nearly doubled its unit price. Our strictly in whatever other areas of the local economies will not fundamentals-driven portfolio has throughout 2011 be able to make up for that. In addition, investments shifted more weight to the newest members of EU and into the CEE region largely come from the Eurozone, and the next two hopefuls, together often characterized as would therefore be negatively affected in such a case, the „periphery“ of Eastern Europe. This is where we too. Even though there are indications of a recovery find the cheapest companies with the most to benefit that should shift in the coming months and years from from both the short term recovery and the longer term export-driven growth to more balanced growth, the convergence. With careful liquidity management and economic recovery will continue to rely on external rigorous bottom up research we are certain that for our factors from the Eurozone. While CEE countries with a portfolio the fundamental risk is not significantly higher larger domestic demand base may be able to counter in the Balkans than it is in Warsaw or Prague. But the some negative external effects more efficiently than 12
  • 13. smaller and less diversified economies in the future, not only mirror the chances stemming from continued the overall region will continue to depend on economic convergence but also the risks of a slowdown in growth. trends in the Eurozone, and especially Germany. CEE will Itraxx CEEMEA Itraxx Western Europe 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Jan 10 Feb 10 March 10 April 10 May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sept 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 March 11 Apirl 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Source: Bloomberg For the first time ever, risk of CEEMEA, as measured by CDS spreads, has dropped below Western European level. This would suggest that convergence of asset valuation levels should converge, too. Considering that New Europe is a relatively small and near-emerging market growth rates. Limestone investment region with open economies and strong New Europe Fund management team will continue ties to Western Europe, it is unlikely to decouple from to do what we know best: finding the most attractive general trends in global markets. What it offers, is a companies in the region and constructing a unique large long term outperformance if and when European portfolio to deliver the outperformance. economy recovers, with near-developed market risk Working in equity markets from 1996 as equities trader and portfolio manager, Alvar joined Suprema Fund Head of Eastern European Equities Management in 2000 as a fund manager. In 2003 Alvar started in Hansa Investment Funds where he initiated the set up of CEE investment management team and a portfolio of funds including the Morningstar 5* rated Hansa Eastern Europe Equity Fund. In 2007, Alvar co-initiated the setup of Limestone Investment Alvar Roosimaa Management, an independent specialist Eastern Europe equity funds investment manager, where most of the team from previous employer eventually followed. He was nominated the Fund Manager of The Year in Estonia in 2005 and 2006. Alvar has a MSc in Finance degree from London Business School. 13
  • 14. Globetrotter – Unlocking the Undiscovered World For those with the skill and patience to choose carefully as well as assessing the soft values and company’s and a strong view on how the world will look like in the interaction with the environment around it. coming years, global frontier markets provide excellent opportunities. There are many unexplored markets with There are many, both objective and subjective, reasons exceptional value and growth opportunities that the big for the inefficiencies to pop in these markets. There are money has not found yet. Accessing these markets in some markets that have not been found yet because earnest requires experience and takes a lot of ground they are very new or very small and investors just work, research, and network building. That is what the haven’t noticed them yet. Some markets are restricted Globetrotter fund was created to do. from foreign investors, which provide opportunities for What Are Frontier Markets? The lack of investor base Northern Star defines frontier markets as the most inefficient emerging markets with historically low overlap with global markets correlation with major global markets. Mainstream systematically creates asset research coverage from investment banks and brokers mispricing in frontier markets. does not reach these markets and that, along with other reasons, keeps the mass of foreign investors away. those who have the capability to dodge the restrictions. This lack of investor base overlap with global markets Good examples of these are Chinese and Saudi Arabian systematically creates asset mispricing and that gives local markets that Globetrotter has access to, thanks to remarkable opportunities for investors who are capable the local network created over many years of activity of conducting a deeper research on the grass-root level in the region. Then there are markets like Russia, and 14
  • 15. Central Asian and Eastern European smaller countries these high-potential markets are in the beginning of or that suffer from reputational downgrades that have already going through their fast growth phases where little to do with real developments, thus offering the highest returns come from. Indexes consider extraordinary opportunities for investors with deeper local knowledge. Companies operating in the high-potential markets are Selected countries in Globetrotter frontier market universe in the beginning of their fast Quite often, frontier markets funds base their portfolio growth phases where the construction on indexes and geographical borders. This highest returns come from. usually means that large countries and regions have large weights and small ones have small weights, no adding the companies remarkably later, long after such matter what the outlook. Stock-wise, biggest companies prosperous gains. in the market that are added to indexes usually get more attention. In the end of the day, everybody is Racing the index does not necessarily make anybody doing pretty much the same thing and earning the same rich either. A fund can outperform a benchmark index money because they let someone else decide where but still give a negative return. Who would win in and how much to invest. this case? Working on one’s own speed, having only the target performance in sight will create value for That approach will not capture the true potential in investors and increase their wealth. frontier markets. Some large countries are way too expensive during some periods while small markets Parts of the world considered frontier are going through could have tremendous potential. But higher risk the fast-growth-phase and large structural changes, but profile that comes with big potential makes it seem to not equally in all sectors and all markets. That is where be safer to keep away while it really only requires more the theme-investing comes in. homework. Moreover, the companies operating in Balance on Time required Ease of doing Current to start a business Urban Mortality rate Population, GDP growth, GDP growth, Account, % of business, days, (1=best, Railways, km, population, % under-5, of Area km² mln, 2010 2011 est 2012 est GDP, 2011 est 2010 183=worst) 2010 of total, 2010 1000 Cambodia 181,035 14.3 6.5 6.5 -11.4 8 147 690 22.8 88 China 9,596,961 1,341.0 9.6 9.5 5.7 38 79 86,000 45.2 19 Congo, Dem Rep 2,344,858 62.6 6.5 6.0 -2.8 84 175 4,007 35.2 128 Egypt, Arab Rep 1,001,450 75.5 1.0 4.0 -2.7 7 94 5,083 42.8 21 Ghana 238,533 23.5 13.7 7.3 -6.8 12 67 947 51.5 69 India 3,287,263 1,182.1 8.2 7.8 -3.7 29 134 63,974 30.1 66 Indonesia 1,904,569 234.0 6.2 6.5 0.9 47 121 5,042 53.7 39 Iran, Islamic Rep 1,648,195 76.9 0.0 3.0 11.7 8 129 8,442 69.5 31 Iraq 438,317 30,399.6 9.6 12.6 -3.2 77 166 2,272 66.4 44 Kazakhstan 2,724,900 16.1 5.9 5.6 5.8 19 59 15,079 58.5 29 Kenya 580,367 37.5 5.7 6.5 -9.3 33 98 2,066 22.2 84 Kuwait 17,818 3.5 5.3 5.1 39.4 35 74 98.4 10 Liberia 111,369 3.8 5.9 9.8 -37.6 20 155 429 61.5 112 Malaysia 329,847 27.6 5.5 5.2 11.4 17 21 1,849 72.2 6 Mongolia 1,564,116 2.8 9.8 7.1 -13.3 13 73 1,908 57.5 29 Mozambique 799,380 21.4 7.5 7.8 -12.0 13 126 4,787 38.4 142 Nigeria 923,768 148.1 6.9 6.6 14.6 31 137 3,505 49.8 138 Qatar 11,586 1.5 20.0 7.1 36.1 12 50 95.8 11 Saudi Arabia 2,149,690 27.7 7.5 3.0 19.8 5 11 1,378 82.1 21 United Arab Emirates 83,600 8.9 3.3 3.8 10.4 15 40 78.1 7 Vietnam 331,210 86.9 6.3 6.8 -4.0 44 78 2,347 28.8 24 Source: IMF, World Bank, CIA, FAO 15
  • 16. Clear Investing Principles: Investing thematically captures Key to Success the maximum growth in the Falling in love with companies is quite easy when doing selected areas of economy as much work with them as frontier markets require. Knowing them so well and seeing the opportunities while not dragging the lagging they offer could lead to buying assets that are relatively parts of it along. fairly priced. To prevent that, quite straightforward investing principles have to be set in place. The idea of investing thematically is to capture the maximum growth in the selected areas of economy while The whole investment process of Globetrotter is based not dragging the lagging parts of it along. The strategy is on fundamental and geopolitical analysis as well as to identify those themes that benefit first and pick up the grass root level research while also adding soft values future winning companies in each theme, wherever they like environmental, social and governance factors. All operate in our universe or where they are listed. That the markets in frontiers’ universe are very different, helps achieve real diversification benefits in the fund. there are no homogenous areas. All markets have different political regimes and cultural characteristics. While different parts of the frontier markets are in a They all have different risks involved. Before investing, different phase of development, the themes to benefit all these aspects must be considered and measured are also different. As changes take place, the winning accordingly. This is the one place where geographical themes change, so modifications should also be done in borders actually do matter and are reckoned with. the portfolio in order to stay ahead of the market. In Globetrotter, the most important principle while The benefitting themes are usually quite well protected building the portfolio is having at least 50 percent during the times of market turbulence, because the upside for each theme and each company over the big money has not reached them yet or does not care next 6 to 18 months. That is clear enough to prevent about them. Only smaller number of focused investors making hasty investment decisions and together with is involved in the beginning. inefficient market approach, will give enough downside CASH LOCAL CHINA MARKET CHINA LUXURY GOODS FSU BANKING EE LAGGARDS FOOD ASIAN NEW TIGERS CENTRAL ASIAN COMMODITY RESERVES CEMENT OIL SERVICES AND EXPLORATION AFRICAN CONSUMER MIDDLE EAST RECOVERY SAUDI ARABIA OPENING GATES 16
  • 17. protection during difficult times while providing an intention to punish companies that do not disclose their excellent upside. ESG practices but rather engage with them, explain the mutual benefits, and encourage them to open up. In The most important principle frontier markets, the challenge is big – most companies do not have a habit of disclosing their ESG information, is to have at least 50 percent the reasons can be anything from cultural to the fear upside for each theme and of competition or clients’ reaction. Among many good causes the ESG integration serves, it is also a vital risk company over the next 6 to 18 management tool against damaging event risks in an months. environment where public information availability is underdeveloped. Clearly, nobody has a crystal ball in the office. Even if all the fundamentals support the upside principle and inefficient markets approach, the performance can turn According to Risklab research, out to be less than expected. But it can also turn out “tail risk”, the risk of unlikely to be much better. There are themes that will probably events causing catastrophic bring some disappointment but there are some that will go through the roof. Following the principles makes damage, can be reduced nearly it less probable to get stuck in themes and companies 40 percent in an emerging that could probably end up being on the losers’ side. markets portfolio that has In accordance with the Northern Star group wide limited its exposure to ESG principles, no investment is done without thorough ESG risks. considerations. Discussions of sustainability issues form an integral part of management and analyst meetings and play important role in assessing the long term Investment Themes in Focus business prospects of most companies. In choosing its To give example of some out of more than ten investment themes, Globetrotter prefers developments investment themes in the portfolio, food and cement, as that support local societies and improve people’s living basic crucial necessities in frontier markets, make good conditions. ESG factors are integrated to financial cases. Food, one of the latest additions to Globetrotter, models in the calculation of the target price. There is no is a crucial issue everywhere, but especially so in the 17
  • 18. developing world, where population growth is strong Cement theme has its main focus on emerging Asia and and urbanization pace rapid. Africa. These regions are stepping in the era of big social and structural changes in the coming years. In China, There are 925 million undernourished people in the social housing construction plan foresees building 36 world, according to Food and Agriculture Organization million housing units in the next five years, and local of the United Nations (FAO) estimate for this year, cement producers are due a prosperous period. with most of them, 62 percent, living Asia and Pacific, followed by Sub-Saharan Africa with 26 percent of Even bigger changes are expected in Africa where world’s hungry people. Along with the very poor, very infrastructure development is picking rapidly. Nigeria hungry people, come the “newly rich people” or those has a housing deficit of 17 million homes and poor state who have the benefit of increasing personal income of infrastructure, both which the country’s Vision 2020 together with the development of the broad economy. plan intends to relief. Currently, Nigeria has one of the Higher disposable income reflects on the kitchen-table lowest annual cement consumptions per capita in Africa quite fast – products with higher quality or even more of 57 kg. That compares to South-Africa’s 210 kg and shiny labels have high attraction factor. These people Gabon’s 330 kg consumption per capita. The country is live, additionally to the regions mentioned above, also currently in cement deficit that is expected to end by in Middle East and Eastern Europe with the last one 2013 when only local production will be sold. That also having recorded the most rapid growth in per capita means better returns for the producers. consumption of basic foods in recent years. All of the companies we have chosen to our Cement Approaching the companies through the eyes of theme have very modern technologies and waste responsible investing, we look for evidence that the management to reduce environmental effects. They production is clean, traceable and sustainable, that are big employers and take initiative in the local social the companies create new jobs and give their share in projects. improving living conditions of local people or customers. They also have to preserve local environment and take steps to reduce their negative influence. Ari-Pekka is one of the most experienced frontier market investors in the Nordic investment industry. With over 23 years of total experience in equity markets Head of Frontier Market Equities and portfolio management, he first started investing in emerging markets in early 1990’s. A-P has managed funds of various size and style, including 1.5 billion euro emerging/frontier market equity portfolio in Finnish Varma. Prior to Varma, from where he left to co-found Ari-Pekka Hilden Northern Star, A-P worked as the Head of Equities for institutions like LGPI and SEB Private Bank Luxembourg. AP has acted as a seed and anchor investor for numerous emerging market funds, including the first China A share Fund, and funds in Iraq, Iran, Vietnam and Cambodia. 18
  • 19. In Russia, Governance Is Everything Russia, always the land of plenty and full of promise, the bottom ten companies increased shareholder value has yet never really fully delivered. Blame it on difficult by mere 583 percent and 145 percent, respectively. history or bad luck, the Russian market has retained The RTS index rose 613 and 190 percent during its reputation of being risky and opaque. And yet, for these periods. Statistics prove clearly that selection skilful investors, there have been periods over the last from corporate governance viewpoint makes a large decade when substantial outperformance could have difference in performance. been extracted. Northern Star, in the search for the right model in Russia, has turned its main attention to corporate governance of Russian companies, as a A straightforward strategy natural source of much needed portfolio risk reduction. for investors with a long term investment horizon in Russia: It is generally accepted that governance issues are one of the most important factors differentiating great concentrate on firms with solid companies from poor ones but also one of the biggest corporate governance hurdles that investors must overcome in Russia. A recent study by Aton, a Russian investment bank, shows Unfortunately, there are a number of companies in strong relationship between the quality of corporate Russia that have no understanding of trust between governance and company market performance. When shareholders and companies. They are having hard 100 leading companies were ranked according to their times to comply even with the very minimum legal corporate governance scores weighted by market requirements enforced by the exchange. Good thing is capitalization, the top ten companies delivered a that the regulations are improving, slowly but surely. growth of over 2,700 percent starting from 2002 up to For example, insider trading became criminal offence in 2Q 2011, and over 400 percent since 2009. Conversely, January 2011 and according to new reform, dividends 19
  • 20. must be paid in 60 days instead of 6 months allowed and what is prohibited: anything can potentially used earlier. It is unfortunate that often companies that against you. And what is most important, the general underperform in terms of governance make public understanding of the potential benefits of improving spotlights, and that creates a biased image of the whole the image of the company is just not yet entrenched market. the business-community. Old habits die hard, especially when the top down environment in the form of rule of When investing in Russia, it is vital to know the controlling law is hardly supportive. shareholders’ background and their ambition with regard to the company. Cases of speculators who wrap up poor businesses in attractive packages in order to A closer look reveals, however, that there are amazingly make a quick sale are not uncommon. At the same time, many Russian companies that aspire to become a there are plenty of new generation entrepreneurs truly modern company by means of governance and investor interested in long-term value creation. Making a clear relations. They have moved out of the “comfort” zone distinction is crucial but definitely not an easy task. and working in the name of gaining foreign interest and The main obstacle to make things easier is the still poor having an international investor base. In many cases, information disclosure habit in Russia. Among the main they just do not know how to communicate their efforts reasons behind that is the Russian legal and financial to the public. This is where dedicated research and infrastructure that is still underdeveloped. Also, tax engagement based analysis can make a big difference. legislation is deficient, which makes companies afraid of Management meetings and thorough homework will disclosing information as it is not clear what is allowed help to find the true gems in the market. A veteran of the Russian financial markets, Maxim was advising Pohjola Asset Management’s OP 650m EUR OP Russia Fund prior to joining Northern Star in 2011. During his tenure with Pohjola from 2008, OP Fund was firmly at the top of peer group rankings. Head of Russian Equities Previously, Maxim was Director of International Equity Sales at Deutsche Bank, Moscow. Having more than 20 years of experience in Russian and emerging market Maxim Achkasov equities from New York, London, Moscow and Helsinki, Maxim deep knowledge of the Russian equity markets and boasts a unique network of connections in local business community. 20
  • 21. Integrated Research the Only Way Forward Research is the cornerstone of Limestone, and the whole Northern Star Group’s, investment process. Development opportunities While necessarily effective in its traditional fundamental in this field are endless, focus, the true uniqueness in the approach lies in the continuing development of the integration of providing further prospects environmental, social and governance (ESG) research to for streamlining of the fundamental valuation. methods and practices we use Since the last Yearbook, we have developed further in investment decisions that the concept of including ESG assessment to company take into consideration ESG valuations and have been able to reach remarkable aspects. results. Our approach to responsible investing is obviously integration, defined as an inclusion of In previous Yearbooks we have described the grading ESG considerations to traditional financial analysis. mechanism that is implemented in calculation of cost of Theoretically, integration should belong under the broad capital, which has been developed in order to provide SRI umbrella that is regarded to lead to mainstreaming distinct tools for our research analysts for uniform of the process. Emerging markets are not broad based assessment of ESG factors. In addition to in-house enough to enable thematic approach that is regarded work, we have been communicating our message and more fashionable in the developed world. Therefore, have become even more visible in the SRI community. already before the launch of Limestone New Europe Our presentations in several high profile responsible Fund, it was obvious to us that while traditional approach investment conferences and investor events have provides a starting point for ESG implementation to received a lot of positive feedback. It is understandable fundamental analysis, it did not offer any readymade that our structured and scalable solution to integration solutions. raises widespread interest among industry professionals 21
  • 22. who have mostly seen and been sold traditional ratings- universe was graded slightly below average, and the based qualitative assessment methodology that has fund portfolio constituents were doing significantly little to do with investment analysis. better. Altogether, the grades give a snapshot of the management quality and awareness of environmental Our methodology in the nutshell is the following: an and social issues, as there can’t be perfect environmental ESG matrix is developed, where the analyst can rate management and a total disregard of social issues each company by these three factors that combined within one company. There are better and worse Having built that assessment mechanism, without additional tools, every individual result would depend companies in the investment only on single analyst’s subjective view, which would universe and their respective not ensure the comparability of results that is needed risk levels are taken into for portfolio construction purposes. Thus, although the analyst responsible for assessing companies knows account in assignment of more than anybody else on the subject and is most target price through cost of qualified for granting the grades, supporting tools for equity calculation. reaching a certain degree of uniformity in final grades are required. will create an overall ESG score of the company. To make the building blocks simple, a rating score from For building the tools, the starting point would be the 1-5 is applied, where the score of 3 will not ignite any assessment of information, analytical equipment and changes to the cost of equity and each notch below or concepts that we had at hand. One of the key building above respectively adds or subtracts basis points from blocks we derive from screening of the investment cost of equity. In the selected scale of adjustment, the universe is sector based risk level assessment. Obviously, cost of equity can vary by 240 bps on scores from one oil companies have higher environmental risk than to five. Screening of the investment universe and fund banks, whereas social risk is higher in construction portfolio at one point indicated that the average score in and retail than in technology, for example. Therefore, the universe was 2.85 and that of the portfolio was 3.9. mapping of risk on Environmental and Social scale Therefore, although 3 different analysts were granting for each company in the universe serves as the core the grades independently, the average company in the concept in construction of risk assessment tools. LOW Media IT Services Telco Finance Real Estate Tourism & Leisure Social Risk Automotive Pharma Utilities Food Construction Retail Oil & Gas Metals & Mining HIGH Environmental Risk LOW Source: Limestone 22
  • 23. The risk profile of different sectors information available and are therefore most qualified Position of sectors in Environmental and Social scale for such task. Quality of governance and approach of is arbitrary and in real life the differences between executive management towards ESG issues are the risk levels are narrower than can be deducted from prevailing criteria affecting all relevant metrics. In the graph above. Inherent company risk level provides addition to implementation of relevant policies and only the first step for assigning ESG grades and availability of documentation on governance, social adjustment to cost of equity. When the starting point, and environmental aspects are analysed. In addition, or base risk as we call it, is set, the risk evaluation will community support, stakeholder relations and charity be adjusted. Information required for evaluation is work are also taken into consideration. Description of gathered by sector analysts that have the widest set of the methodology is depicted on the following graph: Factors In-House Research Environmental Risk Risk Based Grade Modified Grade Cost of Equity Social Risk Risk Based Grade In New Europe and emerging markets in general the key can also be downgraded, i.e. the risk level can also be risk factor is management quality or governance in more increased from the base level when our analyst has proof broad terms. Therefore, assessment of management that e.g. social aspects of the business are disregarded quality is the decisive factor behind ESG risk assessment or there is evidence of inferior management quality. in every step and analysts will pay significant attention Also here governance is decisive. For adjustment of to it throughout the process. It is the dominant factor risk level, based on additional information gathered and in every step of evaluation governance is the silver and processed by analysts, we introduced a descriptive lining that at the end will be decisive. The base risk tool Risk Adjustment Levers or RAL, as illustrated on the can move to both positive and negative side, meaning picture below. that e.g. initially low risk profile of financial companies HIGH LOW Environmental Risk Social Risk HIGH LOW GOVERNANCE HIGH LOW Management Quality 23
  • 24. Risk Adjustment Levers This happens when we have proof of irresponsible The underlying principle in RAL is that every company development, e.g. there might be labour relations’ is put on respective scale from environmental and issues in certain telecom companies that usually should social perspective, based on a pre-assessed sector risk. be of low risk, or predatory lending practices in banks Separate issue is managment quality that is given its that by default have low sector ESG risk. That will lead respective position on the weak-versus-strong scale. to increase in cost of capital and lower fair value target. Unlike environmental and social evaluation, there is no pre-set base, and evaluation is already based on available There is no doubt in our minds detailed information, not just sector risk. So, the levers are moved towards positive or negative side of the axes that ESG integration is really according of the results of research. Final position of the only way forward. the company on these three measures will serve as the foundation in assigning of grades and adjustment to Through adaptation of risk adjustment levers we have cost of equity. Accordingly, position at the high risk area provided our investment team an additional tool to by environmental and social risk indicates grades 1-2 on better grasp risk profiles of the companies and to our ESG matrics for these items, 3 is average and 4 and further enhance the integration of ESG principles into 5 indicate already superior performance and lowering financial modelling and investment decisionmaking. risk position. Practical application has proven that However, the road does not stop here and we expect we have very few companies with grades in extreme the work on research process to continue. The goal positions like 1 or 5. is to get the environmental, social and governance research completely out from the „soft values“ closet In essence, each company’s starting position is and make them a natural and fully accepted part of determined by the industry risk profile, and then the everyday decisionmaking. Now, with the Limestone analyst starts to look for justifications for moving the New Europe SRI Fund having 3 years of excellent track levers in either way, preferrably towards lower risk. record to present, we have even more confidence in the It is not uncommon that companies will be given the righteousness of our path. final grade that is less than their starting position. Rein is heading the research process at Limestone and Northern Star Group. Before co-founding Limestone in 2007, Rein run the research team in Hansa Investment Management, the largest investment manager in the Baltic region, and managed Hansa Central Asia Equity Fund, the first dedicated UCITS fund investing in the region. Started as an equity analyst at Suprema Securities in 1997, Rein later held the positions of Senior Rein Ojavere, CFA Head of Research Analyst, Associate Director and Director until 2006. He participated in a number of landmark M&A deals and IPO’s in the Baltic region with main responsibility areas of valuation and structuring. Rein is a CFA Charterholder and holds MSc in Economics and Business Administration degree from University of Tartu. 24
  • 25. Serbia 25
  • 26. Country Focus: Serbia, the Last European Frontier Republic of Serbia is a landlocked country in the few. Agricultural products such as wheat, maize, sugar south-eastern Europe, covering the southern part beets, sunflower, raspberries, beef, pork and milk are of the Carpathian basin. Serbia has borders with produced. seven countries: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro to the west, Kosovo and Macedonia to the The capital of Serbia, Belgrade, has a population of south, Bulgaria and Romania to the east and Hungary to close to 1.5 million out of 7.3 million in the country. the north. Covered with rich fertile plains in the north, Serbian national identity began emerging in the 8th limestone ranges and basins in the east, and ancient century, with the ruling of prince Višeslav. The country’s mountains and hills in the south-east, the total territory territories expanded until being defeated by the Turks of 77,474 square kilometres ranks Serbia the 117th in in 1389. In the next century, Ottoman Empire exerted the world. complete control over all Serb lands for nearly 4 centuries. Serbia formally gained independence in Serbia offers a range of natural minerals. As of 1878 at the Congress of Berlin which was regained in January 2010, it has proved reserves of oil and gas 2006 after a number of political and military struggles. of 78 million barrels and 50 billion cubic meters, In 2009, Serbia submitted its application for European respectively. Additionally, the surface holds coal, iron Union membership. ore, copper, zinc, gold and silver reservoirs, to name a 26
  • 27. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F Nominal GDP (EUR bn) 20.4 23.6 29.1 33.4 30.0 29.5 34.3 36.4 Real GDP (% YoY) 5.6 5.2 6.9 5.5 -3.1 1.8 3.0 3.8 Industrial production (% YoY) 0.7 4.7 3.7 4.5 -12.1 2.9 4.8 6.0 Unemployment rate 20.8 20.9 9.7 13.7 16.1 19.2 19.0 18.5 CPI, year end (%) 171.0 6.0 11.0 8.6 6.6 10.3 8.5 5.7 Monthly average gross wages (EUR) 307.7 377.2 484.4 561.1 470.3 460.5 502.4 532.0 Gross nominal wages (% YoY) 24.1 24.4 22.0 17.9 8.8 7.5 8.0 9.0 Foreign direct investment (% of GDP) 5.9 14.4 8.6 6.0 4.7 3.4 4.0 7.0 Budget balance (% of GDP) 0.7 -1.5 -1.9 -2.6 -4.3 -4.5 -4.1 -3.5 Public debt (% of GDP) 31.0 27.0 34.0 43.0 42.0 43.0 Trade balance (% of GDP) -20.3 -20.5 -22.8 -22.6 -17.0 -16.2 -15.6 -15.4 10-year interest rate (avg) 5.6 5.5 5.6 6.4 5.7 3.9 5.5 5.5 Source: Erste, Raiffeisen, IMF Development and Challenges of sustainable future growth. World Bank in its report Following the democratic changes in 2000, Serbian has praised Serbia for some reform achievements economy witnessed relatively high annual economic as already having very positive effect on the private growth rates of 5.7 percent on average from 2000 to businesses operating environment. Last building blocks 2008. The average growth in Western Balkan region was soon to be put in place, not least because the promise 5 percent. That supported one of the highest levels of of eventual EU membership, we share the opinion that foreign direct investment inflows in Serbia during that Serbia will be one of the greatest European success period. Due to severe impact of the financial crisis, stories in the coming years. the Serbian market has been largely abandoned by international investors in the past three years. Together In the “Ease of doing business” business climate with the positive signs of recovery, interest is, though, rankings from IMF, Serbia still ranked just 89th of 183 returning. in the world (Poland at 70, Croatia at 84, Greece at 109, and Russia at 123) in 2010. Companies operating in the The biggest challenges for the Serbian transition country have brought up issues of political instability, process for becoming an open-market economy and practices of informal sector and limited access to a modern European state seem to be behind by now. finance. Dedicated efforts to tackle the issues hindering The painful and violent break up process of Yugoslavia a better ranking were started in 2009 and are at their in 90’s, climaxed by extensive NATO bombing of Serbia final stages of implementation. in 1999, set the country lagging its regional peers. Over the last few years Serbia has made great efforts to shrug Another tool to strengthen and accelerate the off the legacy of that unfortunate period, including the transition is the EU integration process. It provides a much publicized catching and extraditing alleged war unique incentive for political and economic reform and criminals. aims to bring the country up to European standards in all areas covered by EU treaties. Following free travel The business infrastructure modernization is still in arrangements from 2010, accession talks have begun early stages. Governance regulations and enterprise in 2011 and an official opinion regarding Serbia’s restructuring laws, and competition policies are already membership is expected by 2012. Based on our hands recognized at the highest levels as the important pillars on experience from the region, this kind of run up 27
  • 28. period to EU membership could be very rewarding for Corporate social responsibility (CSR) approach is investors willing to take on some liquidity risk. relatively new to Serbia. Although awareness of this exists, it is mostly on the level of concept-formation rather than on the level of locally realized practice. Yet Serbia is the last country it does not encompass all of the companies. in Europe with critical scale for financial investors to go In order to promote the emerging interest in CSR in Serbia, many projects have been put together. In 2004, through the accession process. Responsible Business Initiative was introduced and in 2008, Business Leaders Forum was established. While Capital Markets and the first one was founded to inspire, institutionalize Corporate Governance and put into practice the concept of corporate social Belgrade stock exchange is considered one of the oldest responsibility, the forum actually gathers Serbia’s exchanges in Europe, having been founded in 1894 socially responsible companies to one network. These to promote, facilitate and regulate trading in various companies have a shared goal of promoting CSR and commodities. In the beginning of 20th century, the most operating in a sustainable way to benefit the interests wanted and stable securities listed on the exchange of the whole community. On one hand, the forum is were government securities. The rule to observe was “if designed to encourage Serbian companies and their you want to eat well, invest in shares. But if you want to employees to contribute to social and environmental sleep well, invest in government bonds”, according to causes as part of their everyday operations. On the the exchange’s homepage. In 1953 the stock exchange other side, it also has a task of connecting business was closed to be reborn again in 1989 as Yugoslav leaders to government representatives to identify social Capital Market that changed its name to Belgrade Stock and economic problems and find appropriate solutions. Exchange three years later. The BELEX trading system It’s a start. was launched in 2001. We have met many managers There is a corporate governance code in place for listed companies or others who wish to get acquainted with during our company meetings and implement corporate governance principles. It in Serbia who are very well depicts a set of rules and principles expressed through aware of the values of CSR recommendations which should be implemented. The code was adopted in 2008. On stock market’s and are pursuing the practices home page, there is Corporate Governance Scorecard in their companies for all the introduced for companies to fill and evaluate their right reasons. corporate governance practices on different aspects of the issue. That helps them improve their knowledge about corporate governance factors and also see where their efforts are still lacking. 28
  • 29. Companies in Focus Tigar compact and well-equipped industrial complex, Tigar 3, A company established in 1935 in the southern Serbian which enjoys a surface area of some 22 hectares, and town of Pirot, has transformed itself from the simple encompasses cutting-edge industrial capacities in one car tire manufacturer for the entire Yugoslavia into of the region’s largest industrial zones. Tigar operates world class rubber footwear and technical rubber now in attractive sector, as market share of rubber specialist. Being historically the largest producer of car boots on global scale is increasing, as leather boots are tires, the management realised in the early stage that significantly more expensive. Also competitive situation in highly competitive international environment with is favourable, as there is only one competitor left in ever expanding R&D budgets of major competitors, Europe and there is some competition from China. there is no place for a small independent tire producer. During the years Tigar has acquired several brands Therefore, more than 10 years ago the Company started and has developed its own brands and introduced to look for strategic partner and in 2001 Tigar formed specialised footwear retail chain in Serbia. Overall, the a joint-venture with Michelin that was financially revenues from rubber footwear sales are expected to supported by EBRD and IFC. By 2009 the Company more than double in 2011. exited the tire business and focused on production of rubber footwear and technical rubber products. Tigar also owns and operates the only national chain of car service stations and distributes tires, batteries With an investment of over 23 million Euros in and motor oils in Serbia. This forms a unique asset with development, reengineering and upgrading of high potential for disposal to strategic investors that are manufacturing facilities, the company has created a expanding their operations in the CEE region, where 29
  • 30. Serbia is the natural next market to enter. In addition to enables AIK Banka to be present in all important regions excellent competitive position, the Serbian market will of the country. As a typical wholesale bank, AIK provides also witness high growth, as only from 2011 all cars are various banking services across all main business obliged to use winter tires. segments. Its retail banking services include various accounts, credits, and deposits while corporate banking Tigar has made good progress in the field of CSR. It offers short term credit, credits for both export financing has implemented ISO and OHSAS certificates, as well and development financing, as well as corporate as established modern, highly efficient production depositing products. Great variety of payment cards, facilities with low level of energy use and minimum safe-depositing, money transfer, and electronic banking waste. In 2010 the Company commissioned the plant services are also on the offer. The bank has also built a for production of recycled-rubber products. Corporate reputation of a strong dealer-broker company on local Governance practices are of high standard, developed capital markets. Among other Serbian banks, AIK Banka in cooperation with IFC, and they are exceeding the especially differentiates from the rest of the group by requirements of local stock exchange. Tigar is also its exceptional capitalization level with CAR above 30%, considered to have one of the most professional investor together with excellent operational efficiency: cost to relation services in Serbia, which Limestone team has income ratio is well below 30%. experienced several times in company meetings during our trips to Serbia. Such a strong market position combined with remarkable development potential of the country itself, adds further responsibilty for AIK Banka in order to step up as a pioneer in shaping sustainable values in local society. Although there is a long way to go, the awareness is there, as Limestone team concluded after meeting the newly appointed Chairman in Belgrade in spring 2011. Strength of the capital base, massive earnings potential and extremely low valuation make AIK an exellent case for any investor who is looking to get exposure to Serbian development. Energoprojekt Energoprojekt is the largest engineering and construction group in Serbia. Through its network of regional branches, subsidiaries, joint ventures and other corporate entities, Energoprojekt controls projects in 24 countries across four continents. From AIK Banka the Yugoslav days, Energoprojekt has retained its Founded in 1976 as the internal bank for the Agro- position as one of the major design, engineering and industrial Combine of Nis, AiK Banka has emerged construction companies in the South-eastern Europe. into one of the leading wholesale banks in Serbia. AIK With a solid reputation, and revenues of approximately Banka obtained the license from the National Bank of €200 million per annum and annual contracts in excess Yugoslavia in August 1993 and was restructured as a of €400 million, Energoprojekt presents a very good joint-stock company in June 1995. From October 2005 platform for regional expansion. The investments in company`s shares are listed on the Belgrade Stock infrastructure and energy projects in Serbia and South- Exchange and in September 2006, Greece’s ATE Bank Eastern Europe are expected to exceed €3bn over the became the major shareholder in the Bank by acquiring next several years, from which the company will get its 20 percent stake. Current network of 66 branches fair share. From July, 2007, Energoprojekt is listed on 30