Global Cities Initiative | Detroit
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Presented by Bruce Katz, director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, on April 22 2015 at the Detroit Economic Club.
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Global Cities Initiative | Detroit
- 1. GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVE A JOINT P ROJ ECT O F BR OOK IN GS AND J PMORGAN C HASE T H E D E T R O I T EC O N O M I C C LU B H O S T S Detroit, MI | April 22, 2015 @bruce_katz! #globalcities
- 2. -10,000,000 -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 2007 2009 2014 Payroll Count Jobs Gap Growth-Based Jobs Gap Source: The Hamilton Project analysis of Congressional Budget OfďŹce and Current Employment Statistics data. 4.0 million! missing jobs Jobs Gap Caused by Great Recession
- 3. -5% 40% 1990 2000 2012 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 36% 0% -4% Change in Output Per Capita and Median Household Income! Since 1990 Output Per Capita Median Household Income Source: Current Population Statistics, BLS Consumer Price Index, Census Population Estimates, Moodyâs Analytics. Output per capita: ! +$14,589 Median income: ! -$2,120
- 4. 81 millionpoor or near poor in 2000
- 5. 107 millionpoor or near poor in 2011
- 6. HUMAN CAPITAL INNOVATION MANUFACTURING INFRASTRUCTURE STEM ADVANCED ENERGY EXPORTS R&D OPPORTUNITY CONSUMPTION DEBT CONSUMPTION DEBT DEBT CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION DEBTDEBT CONSUMPTION DEBT Pre-Recession Economy Next Economy
- 7. The imperative for global engagement 1 2 3 1 2 3
- 8. 2009 Global GDP 28.2%! BIC Countries 19.9%! US Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013
- 9. 2018 Global GDP 17.6%! US 21.0%! BIC Countries Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013
- 10. Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Global Metro Population 50% 2009
- 11. Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Global Metro Population 50%60% 2030
- 12. Global Middle Class - 2009 | Share of Global Totals 18%!North America 36%!Europe 28%!Asia PaciďŹc Source: Kharas and Gertz, âThe New Global Middle Class,â 2010
- 13. Global Middle Class - 2030 | Share of Global Totals 7%!North America 14%!Europe 66%!Asia PaciďŹc Source: Kharas and Gertz, âThe New Global Middle Class,â 2010
- 14. offers a path to more and better jobs Global Engagement
- 15. Global Engagement Exports Foreign Direct ! Investment
- 16. 22%wage premium in foreign-owned ďŹrms 14%US productivity growth contributed by foreign-owned ďŹrms 5.0% foreign-owned ďŹrms employ US workers
- 17. Global Investment Flows Are Growing FDI Flows (Capital) Source: UNCTAD 1984 1999 2012 $2 trillion $1 trillion Global U.S. $1.3 trillion $168 billion
- 18. 1984 1999 2012 U.S. Share of Global Investment is Shrinking U.S. Share of Global FDI (Capital) 45 percent 26 percent 12 percent Source: UNCTAD
- 19. 5,000 $1 billion increase in exports supports jobs 11%wage premium in exporting ďŹrms Greater likelihood of health and retirement beneďŹts in export-intense industries
- 20. Exports Share of GDP! 2012 13.5% United States 29% 22% 15% 30% Japan China Canada India European Union 15% Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2013
- 21. $944 billionUS manufactured exports 2010
- 22. Japan $680 $944 United States GermanyFrance $409 China $1477 $1091 Top Manufacturing Exporting Countries! Billions, 2010 Source: World Trade Organization, 2011
- 23. $358 Service Imports Service Exports $518 US Service Trade! Billions, 2010 $160 billion! trade surplus Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reďŹect Commercial Services)
- 24. U.S. Value Added in U.S. Imports 2009 2% 25% 40% 4% European Union Canada MexicoChina Source: Brookings, Metro North America (2013)
- 25. Can we increase ! our ! ! ! ! ! ! ! in global markets? competitiveness
- 26. R&D-intensive industries that concentrate the nationâs science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce A M E R I C W H A T W H E R E W H Y B R O O K I N G S A D V A N C E D I N D U S T R I E S P R O J E C T W H A T W H E R E W H Y B R O O K I N G S A D V A N C E D I N D U S T R I E S W H A T W H E R E W H Y B R O O K I N G S A D V A N C E D I N D U S T R I E S P R O J E C T W H A T W H E R E W H Y B R O O K I N G S A D V A N C E D I N D U S T R I E S P R O J E C T Advanced Industries
- 27. Pharmaceuticals Medical EquipmentMotor Vehicles & Parts Aerospace Manufacturing 35 Software Computer Systems Design Telecommunications R&D Consulting Services Services 12 Oil & Gas ! Extraction Electricity ! Generation Energy 3 Advanced Industries
- 28. Advanced Industries 60.0% 8.7% 90.0% 81.2% 17.7% 80.0% U.S. ⨠GDP ExportsU.S. Workers Private Sector R&D PatentsEngineers / Architects Concentrate the Assets of the Innovative Economy
- 29. $160 $120 $80 $40 $0 AverageWage(thousands) Associateâs! Degree Some! College Secondary! Diploma No Secondary! Diploma $153 $117 $130 $89 $115 $69 $89 $56 $60 $38 $54 $32 $44 $28 $33 $20 Advanced Industries Offer a SigniďŹcant Wage Premium at Every Level of Education Doctoral! Degree Professional! Degree Masterâs! Degree Bachelorâs! Degree 50 percent! of advanced industry jobs ! require less than a bachelorâs degree
- 30. Drive Productivity in Other Industries Stimulate Local Economies Support Long! Supply Chains Develop Technology that Transforms Lives Advanced Industries 39 million! total jobs supported by advanced industries
- 31. Advanced Industries Innovation Skills Infrastructure
- 32. Advanced Industries Innovation Skills Infrastructure Total Spending on Research and Development 2010-2012 average as share of GDP 0 Korea IsraelFinlandSweden Japan Chinese TaipeiDenm arkGerm any Switzerland Austria United StatesSlovenia Iceland FranceBelgiumAustraliaSingapore Netherlands China 1 2 3 4
- 33. Advanced Industries Innovation Skills Infrastructure Share of population 20-34 with a STEM degree Percentage of graduates majoring in STEM ďŹelds RANK VALUE 24 25 26 27 28 29 0.86% 0.84% 0.82% 0.77% 0.76% 0.75% Slovenia Estonia Canada United States Netherlands Hungary 30 31 32 33 34 35 22.0% 21.9% 21.8% 19.3% 19.2% 18.7% Norway Australia Poland United States Chile Japan RANK VALUE
- 34. Advanced Industries Innovation Skills Infrastructure
- 35. Metros are centers of global trade and investment 1 2 31 2 3
- 37. Source: Brookings analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis data
- 38. Service Exports 75% 63% Manufacturing Exports Population 66% Top 100 Metro Exports Share of U.S. Totals Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
- 39. Top 100 Metro Exports Chemical Products 68% 76% Business/ Professional Computer/ Electronic 78% Population 66% Share of U.S. Totals Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
- 40. Top 100 Metro International Connectivity Air Cargo 83% 83% Water Cargo Air Passengers 96% Population 66% Share of U.S. Totals Source: Brookings, Global Gateways (2012) and Metro Freight (2013)
- 41. Population 66% Advanced Industry Employment 74% FDI Employment 74% Employment in Advanced Industries and Foreign-Owned Firms Top 100 Metro Share of U.S. Totals
- 42. Source: Brookings, Metropolitan Areas and the Next Economy (2011) Population 47% GDP 44% Michigan Detroit Metropolitan Area Metro share of state totals
- 43. Source: Brookings Metro Detroit Performs Well on Exports, But Lags Other Large Metros on Growth Exports 14 Rank 8 Rank $38 B Value 18.7% GDP Share 8 Rank Output $203 B Value 2003 2009 2013 175 100 Top 100 Exports Detroit GDP 150 125 75 Top 100 GDP Detroit Exports Indexed Change in GDP and Exports, 2003-2013 Detroit and Top 100 Metros
- 44. Detroitâs FDI Employment Base Is Declining and Highly Dependent on Auto 1991 2001 2011 160 60 Top 100 100 20 Detroit Metro Indexed Change in FDI Employment Detroit Metro and Top 100 Metros, 1991-2011 Source: Brookings Detroit Metro FDI Employment by Sector Detroit Metro Export Value by Sector 27% Other Goods 34% Motor Vehicles and Parts 38% Services 21% Other Goods 59% Motor Vehicles and Parts 19% Services
- 45. Detroit City Has Few FDI Jobs, Especially Relative to the Metro Source: Brookings share of metro Detroit FOE jobs in Detroit city 20/20 rank among peer cities 16/20 rank among peer cities 15,102 jobs in FOEs in Detroit city 12.1% 5.4% share of city employment in FOEs
- 46. Detroit, MI - Global Engagement City Share of Metro FOE Employment Share of Peer Cities, 2011 Louisville, KY 75.1% Memphis, TN 60.4% Cleveland, OH 48.4% Cincinnati, OH 39.7% Pittsburgh, PA 31.5% Chicago, IL 30.7% Philadelphia, PA 13.9% Detroit, MI 12.1% Share of City Employment in FOEs Share of Peer Cities, 2011 Cincinnati, OH 15.5% Cleveland, OH 11.3% Chicago, IL 6.1% Memphis, TN 5.9% Louisville, KY 5.5% Detroit, MI 5.4% Milwaukee, WI 4.8% Philadelphia, PA 3.3%
- 47. Detroit City Is More Reliant on M&A and Large Firms Than Its Peer Cities Greenfield M&A Pre-1991 Share of FOE Jobs by Mode of Entry, 2011 13% 52% 35% 23% 33% 44% Detroit city Peer city average Source: Brookings 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 51-250 251-500 Detroit City Detroit Metro Top 100 Metros Share of FOE Jobs in Mid-Sized Establishments
- 48. 1 2 31 2 3 Metros are engaging globally in new ways METRO INNOVATION
- 50. Market Assessment Target Sectors 8% 9% 12% Economic Profile 15% 12% 13% 9% Establish Goals & Strategies Boost SME exports Increase global ďŹuency Double exports Support key sectors Government Philanthropy Firms Universities Collaborate to Compete Catalyze Trade! and Investment
- 51. A Model of Cross-Sector Collaboration San Diego
- 52. Catalyze Trade & Investment Invest in ! What Matters
- 53. Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure SUNY Albany! Nanotech Campus Columbus
- 54. Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure
- 55. Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure PORTMIAMI
- 56. PORTMIAMI Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure Deep Dredge Project $220 million project, funded solely through state & local resources Port of Miami Tunnel Innovative public-private partnership Intermodal Rail Reconstruction Project Financed with competitively- awarded federal funds to a partnership of the port, county & railway
- 57. Catalyze Trade & Investment Invest in ! What Matters Network Globally
- 59. Chicago Mexico City2nd largest Mexican immigrant population resides in Chicago metro area 130 Chicago-based ďŹrms with operations in Mexico City $1.7 billion total bilateral trade of locally produced products 290,000 tourists and business travelers between Chicago and Mexico City per year
- 60. Watch on YouTube
- 61. GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVE A JOINT P ROJ ECT O F BR OOK IN GS AND J PMORGAN C HASE T H E D E T R O I T EC O N O M I C C LU B H O S T S Detroit, MI | April 22, 2015 @bruce_katz! #globalcities