Presentación del VNI Argentina - Febrero 2016

February 2016
Cisco Visual Networking Index
(VNI) Update
Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast,
2015–2020
Gonzalo Valverde – Director Operations Sales
Argentina, Uruguay & Paraguay

2© 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential
Global
Mobile
Speed
Data
Global
Forecast
Data
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)
Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership
Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study
focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
VNI
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020

Overview

Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
2015 2020
4.8
Billion
5.5
Billion
More
Mobile Users
More
Mobile Connections
Faster
Mobile Speeds
More
Mobile Video
7.9
Billion
11.6
Billion
2.0 Mbps 6.5 Mbps
55% of
Traffic
75% of
Traffic
Mobile
Momentum
Metrics

By 2020, global mobile data traffic
will reach an annual run rate of
367 exabytes per year, up
from 44 exabytes in 2015
(8-fold growth).
367X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000
81 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)
7 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line
Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8-Fold from 2015─2020
Exabytes
per Month
53% CAGR
2015–2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
21.7 EB
3.7 EB
14.9 EB
9.9 EB
6.2 EB
30.6 EB

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions
MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (71%) from 2015–2020
APAC will Generate 45% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2020
53% CAGR
2015–2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Latin America (LATAM)
Middle East and Africa (MEA)
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
Western Europe (WE)
North America (NA)
Asia Pacific (APAC)
Exabytes
per Month 11%
45%
9%
14%
7%
14%

31%
39%
46%
46%
46%
47%
56%
56%
56%
56%
57%
57%
58%
59%
64%
67%
68%
79%
81%
86%
89%
111%
129%
Sweden
Korea
Spain
Canada
Australia
Japan
France
Russia
Germany
US
Italy
UK
Mexico
South Africa
Brazil
New Zealand
Chile
Argentina
Poland
Saudi Arabia
India
China
Indonesia
Cisco VNI Mobile
Year in Review—
2015
Strong Growth
Worldwide

Drivers

Global Mobile Users
From 65% (4.8B) in 2015 to 70% (5.5B) of Global Population by 2020
Global Mobile Users Growing 2X Faster than Global Population
North America
2015: 302 Million
2020: 322 Million
CAGR 1.3%
Latin America
2015: 477 Million
2020: 577 Million
CAGR 1.6%
Western Europe
2015: 368 Million
2020: 378 Million
CAGR 0.5%
Middle East & Africa
2015: 709 Million
2020: 879 Million
CAGR 4.4%
Central & Eastern Europe
2015: 352 Million
2020: 360 Million
CAGR 0.5%
Asia Pacific
2015: 2,597 Million
2020: 3008 Million
CAGR 3.0%

Global Mobile Device and Connections
From 7.9 Billion in 2015 to 11.6 Billion by 2020 at 8% CAGR
North America
2015: 486 Million
2020: 1,036 Million
CAGR 16.4%
Latin America
2015: 770 Million
2020: 1,018 Million
CAGR 5.7%
Western Europe
2015: 627 Million
2020: 1,129 Million
CAGR 12.5%
2015: 1,295 Million
2020: 1,845 Million
CAGR 7.3%
2015: 642 Million
2020: 910 Million
CAGR 7.2%
Asia Pacific
2015: 4,031 Million
2020: 5,707 Million
CAGR 7.2%

Global Mobile Speed Growth
Average Mobile Speed Will More Than Triple from
2.0 Mbps (2015) to 6.5 Mbps (2020)
North America
2.6-fold Growth
5.9 to 15.3 Mbps
Latin America
3.3-fold Growth
1.5 to 4.9 Mbps
Western Europe
3.5-fold Growth
4.1 to 14.1 Mbps
6.3-fold Growth
0.8 to 4.8 Mbps
4.7-fold Growth
2.3 to 10.6 Mbps
Asia Pacific
3.6-fold Growth
2.4 to 8.6 Mbps

Global Mobile Video Traffic
By 2020, Video Will Drive 75% of Mobile Traffic, Up from 55% in 2015
North America
77% of traffic by 2020
49% CAGR
Latin America
60% CAGR
Western Europe
54% CAGR
87% CAGR
62% CAGR
Asia Pacific
64% CAGR

Ten-Year Mobile VNI
Retrospective View

Mobile Data Traffic, 2000–2015
Trends Menu
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
“Call Me”
User Growth Era
“There’s an app for that”
Smartphone Era
“Watch this”
Mobile Video Era
“Where’s Wi-Fi?”
Data Cap Era
2G 3G 4G

Historical View of Mobile Users
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mobile
Users
in
Billions
2000
Mobile Users:
0.6 B
% of WW
Population:
9%
2003
Mobile
Users:
>1 B
% of WW
Population:
17%
2005
Mobile Users:
1.7 B
% of WW
Population:
25%
2003
Mobile Users:
3.5 B
% of WW
Population:
>50%
2015
Mobile Users:
4.8 B
% of WW
Population: 65%

-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Historical View of Devices
Mobile
Devices and
Connections
in Billions
Primarily
2000
Introduced
2003
>
2004 2007 2008
•  One device/
capita
•  1.5 devices/
mobile user
2010 2013 2015

Historical View of Mobile Speeds
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Average
Mobile
Speed
(Kbps)
Mobility for
the Masses
GSM, GPRS,
CDMAOne
Basic Mobile
Broadband
EV-DO, CDMA,
HSPA
Faster Mobile
Broadband
LTE, LTE Advanced
First
Commercial
3G Network
LTE First
Public
Release

Historical View of Video
2G 3G 4G
Introduction of 3G
enabling video
YouTube
introduced
for mobile
devices
iTunes
launches
video
content
Netflix
transforms
video
model
360 Video
offers new
experience
Live video streams
deliver current
events

Top Trends

VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2015–2020
Top Mobile Networking Trends
1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices
2 Defining Cell Network Advances ─ 2G, 3G, 4G (5G Perspectives)
3 Measuring Mobile IoT Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables
4 Tracking Wi-Fi Growth
5 Profiling Mobile Applications Use and Bandwidth Consumption Patterns
6 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements
7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing—Unlimited Data and Shared Plans
8 Mobile Milestones and Innovations Through The Years

Trend 1
Adapting to Smarter
Mobile Devices
•  Total devices and
connections growth
•  Traffic by device category
•  Smarter devices growth
•  Smart devices traffic
•  IPv6 Analysis

Global Mobile Device Growth by Type
By 2020, Smartphones / Phablets Attain Largest Share
Reaching Nearly 50%
8% CAGR
2015–2020
Billions of
Devices
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 device share
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Smartphones (32%,40%) Phablets (6%,8%)
M2M (8%,26%) Nonsmartphones (50%,21%)
Tablets (2%,3%) PCs (2%,2%)
Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.1%)

Global Mobile Traffic Growth by Device Type
Globally, Smartphones / Phablets Will Continue to Dominate Mobile
Traffic, but M2M Will Gain Share by 2020
53% CAGR
2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 traffic share
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Smartphones (inc. Phablets) (76%,81%)
M2M (3%,7%)
Nonsmartphones (2%,1%)
Tablets (9%,8%)
PCs (9%,3%)
Other Portable Devices (0.03%,0.00%)Exabytes
per Month

Smart Devices and Connections Share
Percent of Total Mobile Devices and Connections
2015 2020
Global
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
36%
74%
59%
35%
34%
43%
12%
72%
95%
86%
72%
70%
84%
52%
Latin America
Back to Trends Menu
*Excludes LPWA

Trend 1
Adapting to Smarter
Mobile Devices
•  Total devices and
connections growth
•  Traffic by device category
•  Smarter devices growth
•  Smart devices traffic
•  Ipv6 analysis
Globally, in 2015, a smart device
generated 14 times more traffic
than a nonsmart device.
* Smart devices are those having advanced multimedia/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity

Global Impact of Smart Devices and Connections
on Mobile Traffic
By 2020, Smart Devices Will Have 98% Share of Traffic
Exabytes
per Month
53% CAGR
2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nonsmart Traffic
Smart Traffic
98%
97%
95%
93%
91%89%
11%
9%
7%
5%
3%
2%

Smart Devices and Connections Traffic Share
Percent of Total Mobile Devices and Connections Traffic
2015 2020
Global
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
89%
99%
95%
90%
87%
90%
64%
98%
100%
99%
99%
98%
100%
95%
Latin America
Back to Trends Menu

Trend 2
Defining Cell Network
Advances—2G, 3G, 4G
(5G Perspectives)
•  Total Connections by
Network Type
•  Network Connectivity for M2M
•  Traffic by Network
Connectivity
•  5G Perspectives

Global Connections by Network Type
By 2017, 3G Surpasses 2G Connections
By 2020, 4G Connectivity Surpasses All Other Connection Types
Back to Trends Menu
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G LPWA
Billions of
Devices or
Connections
40.5%
38.7%
13.5%
7.4%
52%
34%
14%
0.3%
*Includes M2M

Connections by Network Type
Regional Share by 2020
Global
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
2G
13%
3%
9%
15%
14%
8%
22%
Latin America
Back to Trends Menu
3G
39%
14%
21%
52%
37%
42%
60%
4G
40%
59%
53%
32%
43%
42%
17%
LPWA
7%
24%
16%
1%
6%
8%
1%
Includes
M2M

Global M2M Connections by Network Type
By 2020, 4G and LPWA Lead M2M Connections
Back to Trends Menu
Billions of
Devices or
Connections
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G LPWA
32%
12%
28%
26%
42%
40%
10%
4%

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G
Globally, 4G Already Carries Largest Share of Traffic – 47%
By 2020, 4G Will Support 72% of Mobile Traffic
Back to Trends Menu
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G
72%
27%
<1%
Exabytes
per Month
47%
10%
43%

Globally, in 2015, a 4G connection generated
1.6 GB/mo, nearly 6X higher than the
288 MB/mo for non-4G connections.
Back to Trends Menu

5G Perspectives
The Perspectives and The Path to Deployment
BarriersBenefits
•  Super-efficient, cost optimized
•  Dynamic resource allocation
•  High bandwidth and ultra-low
latency
•  IoT Capable
•  Power efficient
•  Monetization potential
Recouping 4G investments
•  Device availability
•  Regulatory issues
Spectrum allocation
•  Use case / test data
development
Back to Trends Menu

Generations of Mobile Technology—
A Snapshot
Back to Trends Menu
2G
1980–99
14–64 Kbps
Digital voice,
SMS, MMS
1G
1970–84
2 Kbps
Analog
voice
Generation
Deployment
Bandwidth
Service
3G
1990–2002
2 Mbps
Integrated
high quality
audio, video
and data
4G
2000–10
200 Mbps
Dynamic
information
access, variable
devices
5G
2020+
1 Gbps+
Dynamic
information
access with AI
capabilities–IoT,
Wearable devices

Trend 3
Measuring Mobile IoT
Adoption—M2M and
Emerging Wearables
•  M2M Connections growth
•  M2M by vertical
•  M2M Device usage—
traffic examples
•  Wearables analysis

Global M2M Connection Growth
Global M2M Connections will Grow 5-Fold from 2015-2020;
By 2020, 4G Will Have the Largest Global M2M Connections Share
38% CAGR
2015–2020
Billions of
M2M
Connections
Back to Trends Menu
* In 2015, 4G accounts for 10% and LPWA accounts for 4% of global mobile M2M connections.
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2G 3G 4G LPWA
40%
10%
3.1 B
2.4 B
1.8 B
1.3 B
0.9 B
0.6 B
46%
26%
28%
12%
34%

By 2020, M2M modules will be 26% of total global
mobile devices and connections and will account
for 7% (2.1 EBs/month) of mobile data traffic.
Back to Trends Menu

Global Mobile M2M Connections By Vertical
By 2020, Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth
38% CAGR
2015–2020
Millions of
M2M
Connections
Back to Trends Menu
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Other* (58.1% CAGR)
Energy (44.1% CAGR)
Manufacturing & Supply Chain (43.2% CAGR)
Retail (15.4% CAGR)
Connected Cities (42.3% CAGR)
Connected Health (52% CAGR)
Connected Car (32% CAGR)
Utilities (33.8% CAGR)
Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (46.6% CAGR)
Connected Home (41% CAGR)
*Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services

Global Connected Wearable Devices
Global Connected Wearables will Grow 6-Fold from 2015-2020;
By 2020, 7 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity
44% CAGR
2015–2020
Millions of
Connected
Wearables
Back to Trends Menu
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
8,0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
97 M
489 M
3.3%
601 M
6.9%
% with
Embedded
Cellular
Connectivity
261 M
167 M
373 M

Regional Connected Wearable Devices
Asia Pacific Will Have the Largest Share by 2020
44% CAGR
2015–2020
Millions of
M2M
Connections
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 regional wearable devices share
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Western Europe (17%,21%)
North America (40%,30%)
Middle East & Africa (4%,4%)
Latin America (2%,4%)
Central & Eastern Europe (5%,8%)
Asia Pacific (31%,32%)
489 M
97 M
601 M
167 M
261 M
373 M

Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic
Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 23-Fold from 2015-2020
87% CAGR
2015–2020
Monthly
Traffic
(PB)
Back to Trends Menu
%
Embedded
Cellular
Traffic
15 34
68
125
209
335
2,3%
6,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic
Asia Pacific will Maintain the Largest Share, Followed by North America
87% CAGR
2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 regional wearable devices traffic share
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Western Europe (12%,19%)
North America (38%,30%)
Middle East & Africa (2%,3%)
Latin America (1%,3%)
Central & Eastern Europe (5%,11%)
Asia Pacific (42%,34%)
Monthly
Traffic
(PB)

Trend 4
Tracking Wi-Fi
Growth
•  Total mobile vs. Wi-Fi vs.
fixed traffic growth
•  Mobile offload
•  Growth of Wi-Fi hotspots
•  Day in connected life/
day-parting
•  VoWiFi vs. other types of
mobile voice

Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology
Starting in 2017, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic
23% CAGR
2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile Data (59% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67% CAGR)
Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (22% CAGR)
Fixed/Wired (11% CAGR)
55%
38%
3%
4%
37%
34%
13%
16%
53% is
Wi-Fi
29% from
Mobile Devices
Exabytes
per Month

Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload*
55% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2020
51% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2015
Back to Trends Menu
*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. PCs) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks
Exabytes
per Month
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
45%
55%

Global Public Wi-Fi Hotspots
Asia Pacific leads with 164 Million (37%) hotspots by 2020
Source: Maravedis, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
Millions of
Hotspots
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Middle East and Africa *
Central and Eastern Europe
Latin America
North America
Western Europe
Asia Pacific
37%
27%
21%
9%
64M
5%
109M
191M
278M
355M
433M
* Middle East and Africa represents 1% of global public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2020

Day in a Connected Life
Data Consumption by Location
Back to Trends Menu
* Reflects mature mobile markets and working adults usage
Home 52% Work 33% Hotspot 10% On the Go 5%

Global VoWiFi Deployments/Availability
North America West Europe Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa
Back to Trends Menu

VoWiFi Minutes of Use Exceed VoLTE by 2016
VoWiFi Accounts for 53% of Mobile IP Voice by 2020
VoWiFI MoU Exceed VoIP by 2018
Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Minutes of
Use (Billions)
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VoWiFi (15.7% , 52.9%)
VoLTE (18.0% , 26.3%)
VoIP (66.3% , 20.8%)
66%
53%
26%
21%
18%
16%
* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 share of minutes of use

VoWiFi Voice Traffic Exceeds VoIP by 2017
VoWiFi Is More Widely Available than VoLTE
Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
Petabytes
per Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VoWiFi Traffic
VoLTE Traffic
VoIP

Trend 5
Profiling Mobile Applications
Use and Bandwidth
Consumption Patterns
•  Mobile traffic by applications
•  Average vs. busy hour
•  Average per mobile user
•  Average per connection
•  Average for different device

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps
Video Three-fourths of Mobile Data Traffic by 2020
53% CAGR
2015–2020
Back to Trends Menu
* Figures (n) refer to 2015 and 2020 mobile data traffic shares
Exabytes
per Month
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)
Mobile Audio (8%,6%)
Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,17%)
Mobile Video (55%,75%)

Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic
Busy Hour Is 66% Higher than Average Hour in 2015, 88% in 2020
Back to Trends Menu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Average-Hour Traffic
Busy-Hour Traffic
Tbps

Time Spent Per Device Type, 2015
Time on Smartphones Exceeds Time on PCs for all Regions Except NA
Billions of
Hours per
Day
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
APAC CEE LATAM MEA NA WE
PC Smartphone Tablet
Back to Trends Menu

Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic
per Month)
2015 2020GLOBAL
Global MB per Month
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Latin America
746
1,792
1,134
588
568
1,529
409
5,216
8,887
6,528
4,237
3,785
11,835
4,790
Asia-Pacific
Back to Trends Menu

Global Average Mobile Connection
(Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month
2015 2020
Global MB per Month
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia-Pacific
469
1,147
690
568
392
849
227
2,625
3,097
2,476
3,785
2,403
4,879
2,338
Latin America
GLOBAL
Back to Trends Menu

Mobile Device Data Traffic
2015 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
PC 118 X
(monthly basic mobile
phone data traffic)=
113 X
41 X
7 X
7 X
Back to Trends Menu

Average Cellular Traffic
Per Mobile Device Type
Back to Trends Menu
Note: In 2015, 4G smartphones generated 14GBs/month and 4G tablets generated 3.2GBs/month
2015 2020
MBs per Month MBs per Month
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
164 670
153 558
929 4,406
2,576 7,079
2,679 5,232
M2M Module
Wearable Device
Smartphone
Tablet
PC
Nonsmartphone 23 116

Trend 6
Comparing Mobile
Network Speed
Improvements
•  Mobile speeds
•  Wi-Fi Speeds
•  Mobile speed
by device
•  Mobile speed
by network

Mobile Network Speeds Increase 3.2X by 2020
Average Cell Connection Speed (2.0 Mbps in 2015)
Will Grow at a 26% CAGR—Reaching 6.5 Mbps by 2020
2015 2020
Global Mbps
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia Pacific
2.0
5.9
4.0
1.5
2.4
2.3
0.8
6.5
15.3
14.1
4.9
8.6
10.6
4.8
Latin America
GLOBAL
Back to Trends Menu

Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds
Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2015-2020
2015 2020
Global Mbps
BY REGION
North America
Western Europe
Asia Pacific
12.5
17.4
13.9
5.9
11.4
13.4
4.4
19.9
31.9
22.4
9.1
18.3
24.0
6.8
Latin America
GLOBAL
Back to Trends Menu

Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type
Tablet Speeds are 2.5x Higher than Average by 2020
Smartphone Speeds are 1.9x Higher than Average by 2020
Mbps
Back to Trends Menu
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tablets
Smartphones
11.6 Mbps
7.5 Mbps
2.0 Mbps
16.2 Mbps
12.5 Mbps
6.5 Mbps

0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
4G 3G All Network Types 2G
Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type
4G Speeds will be 3.3X Higher than Average by 2020
Average Speeds will Surpass 3-3.5G Speeds by 2020
Mbps
Back to Trends Menu
15.3 Mbps
2.6 Mbps
2.0 Mbps
21.5 Mbps
116 Kbps
6.5 Mbps
85 Kbps
4.8 Mbps

Trend 7
Reviewing Tiered
Pricing—Unlimited
Data & Shared Plans
•  Top mobile user profile
•  IOS vs. Android
•  Tiered vs. unlimited plans
•  Shared vs. regular plans

Top 20% Users Consume 59% of Monthly Traffic
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* Study limited to few North American Tier 1 and Tier 2 operators
7% 28%
42%
59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%
Top-Tier
Percentage
Usage
(Nov 2015)

Top 20% Users Consume Nearly 11 Gigabytes
per Month *
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27,9
21,4
15,7
11,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Top 1% Top 5% Top 10% Top 20%
Top-Tier
Percentage
Usage GB/
month
(Nov 2015)

7 Percent of Users Consume 10 GB per Month
51 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month *
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Percentage
of Users
(Nov 2015)
7% 21%
51%
94%
99%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Greater than
10 GB
Greater than 5
GB
Greater than 2
GB
Greater than
200 MB
Greater than
20 MB

iOS Usage Surpasses Android
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Average GB/
month
(Nov 2015)
3,1
3,8
0
1
2
3
4
5
Android iOS

“Sponsored” Data Examples
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•  Three free hours of
internet per day on the
Opera Mini Browser
•  Unlimited mobile calls
with higher tier fixed
line subscription
•  2GB Free data for XL
and above plans
•  Testing “toll free”
•  Stream HBO, Netflix
and ESPN
•  Free Hulu to switch
from Verizon
•  Paid data carry
forward service
•  Cut your bill in half to
switch from other
carriers
•  Unlimited plans for
DirecTV and U-verse
customers
•  Connected car program
•  Free trial Facebook
and YouTube to first
time customers

Trend 8
Mobile Milestones
and Innovations
Through The Years

Then and Now
92%
8%
1 : 1
Average number of contacts: 14
Calling, texting
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2000
1 : Many
Average contacts and connections: 250
2015
10%
90%
Calling, texting, tweeting, posting, watching,
gaming, banking, navigating, shopping, reading

Then and Now
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2000 2015
Storage: 4 MB
Speed: 200 Kbps
Data consumed in a month: 0.05 MB
Storage: 32 GB
Speed: 8 Mbps
Data consumed in a month: 1.2 GB
The average smartphone user in 2015 consumes more data in less
than a minute than a mobile user in 2000 did in an entire month.

The Pervasiveness of Mobile in 2015
Two out of three people over the age of five have mobile phones
People with mobile phones: 4.5 billion
People with bank accounts: 4.2 billion
People with running water: 3.0 billion
People with landlines: 2.7 billion
People with cars: 2.6 billion
62% of Global Population
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Mobile Perspective:
The number of mobile users
has quintupled since 2000.
In 2015, more people have
mobile phones than bank
accounts, running water,
cars, and landlines.

Mobile Growth Continues Through 2020
By 2020, more people will have mobile phones than electricity at home
People with mobile phones: 5.4 billion
People with electricity: 5.3 billion
People with bank accounts: 4.5 billion
People with running water: 3.5 billion
People with cars: 2.8 billion
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Mobile Perspective:
Already in 2015, mobile exceeds the
electrical grid in a few regions and
countries, including the Middle East,
Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and
Indonesia. In Uganda, 3 million
have electricity; 10 million have
mobile phones.People with landlines: 2.2 billion

Conclusion

Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, 2015–2020
Key Takeaways / Summary
Back to Trends Menu
GLOBAL MOBILE USERS By 2020, there will be 5.5 Billion global mobile users,
representing 70% of the global population.
GLOBAL MOBILE DEVICES/CONNECTIONS By 2020, there will be 1.5 mobile connections
per capita globally.
GLOBAL MOBILE NETWORK SPEEDS By 2020, avg mobile connection speed will increase
3.2X (2.0 Mbps to 6.5 Mbps).
GLOBAL MOBILE VIDEO By 2020, over 75% of the world’s mobile data
traffic will be video.
GLOBAL MOBILE TRAFFIC OFFLOAD By 2020, 55% of mobile data traffic will be
offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.
GLOBAL MOBILE SMART DEVICES TRAFFIC By 2020, smart devices will generate
98% of global mobile data traffic.
GLOBAL MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC By 2020, mobile data traffic will reach
30.6 EB /per month (366 EB annually).

Argentina

Argentina 4G Traffic
•  4G will account for 61.1% of total mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to
14.4% at the end of 2015.
•  4G traffic will grow 29-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate
of 96%.
•  4G smartphone traffic will be 54% of total smartphone traffic by 2020,
compared to 10.2% at the end of 2015.
•  The average 4G smartphone will generate 3,224 MB of traffic per month by
2020, compared to 1,685 MB for non-4G smartphones.
•  The average 4G smartphone generated 1,456 MB of traffic per month in 2015,
compared to 577 MB for non-4G smartphones.
•  4G tablet traffic will be 93% of total tablet traffic by 2020, compared to 43.5% at
the end of 2015.

Argentina 4G Traffic
•  The average 4G tablet will generate 6,774 MB of traffic per month by 2020,
compared to 3,805 MB for non-4G tablets.
•  4G connections will be 35.6% of total mobile connections by 2020, and 61.1%
of total mobile data traffic.
•  The average 4G connection generated 2,024 MB per month in 2015, 6.3X
higher than the average 321 MB per month for the average Non-4G
Connection, and 3.0X higher than the average 673 MB per month for the
average 3G Connection.

AR Mobile Data Traffic
•  Mobile data traffic will grow 7-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual
growth rate of 47%.
•  Mobile data traffic will grow 2 times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2015 to
2020
•  Mobile data traffic will account for 13% of Argentinian fixed and mobile data
traffic by 2020, up from 5% in 2015
•  87% of mobile connections will be 'smart' connections by 2020, up from 42% in
2015

AR Mobile Users
•  There were 35.7 Million (82% of Argentina's population) mobile users in 2015,
up 3% from 34.8 Million in 2014
•  There will be 38.3 Million (84% of Argentina's population) mobile users by
2020, up from 35.7 Million in 2015, a CAGR of 1.4%.

Argentina Mobile Data Traffic
•  In 2015, Argentina's mobile data traffic grew 1.8-fold, or 79%.
•  Mobile data traffic grew 3.3 times faster than Argentinian fixed IP traffic in 2015
•  The average mobile-connected end-user device generated 382 megabytes of
mobile data traffic per month in 2015, up 76% from 217 megabytes
•  The average smartphone generated 615 megabytes of mobile data traffic per
month in 2015, up from 402 megabytes per month in 2014.
•  In 2015, Argentina's consumer mobile data traffic grew 1.8-fold, or 80%.
•  In 2015, Argentina's business mobile data traffic grew 1.7-fold, or 73%.

Argentina Mobile Applications
•  In Argentina, mobile video traffic will grow 9.3-fold from 2015 to 2020, a
compound annual growth rate of 56%.
•  Video will be 75% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to 55%
at the end of 2015.
•  Video reached half of Argentina's mobile data traffic by year-end 2014 or
earlier.
•  Streaming Audio will be 6% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020,
compared to 8% at the end of 2015.
•  Filesharing will be 2% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to
1% at the end of 2015.
•  Web and other data will be 17% of Argentina's mobile data traffic by 2020,
compared to 36% at the end of 2015.

AR Number of Mobile-Connected Devices
•  1.9 Mobile connections per capita for this region/country by 2020, up from 1.5
mobile connections per capita in 2015.
•  2.0 million net new devices and connections were added to the mobile network
in 2015.
•  6.7 million smartphones were added to the mobile network in 2015.
•  There were 66 million mobile-connected devices in 2015, approximately 1.5
per capita.
•  There will be 86 million mobile-connected devices by 2020, approximately 1.9
per capita.
•  The number of mobile-connected devices will grow at a compound annual
growth rate of 5% from 2015 to 2020.

AR Number of Mobile-Connected Devices
•  The number of mobile-connected tablets grew 1.2-fold during 2015, reaching
0.7 million in number.
•  The number of mobile-connected tablets will grow 2.2-fold between 2015 and
2020, reaching 1.6 million in number.
•  The number of mobile-connected PCs grew % during 2015, to 1 million in
number
•  The number of mobile-connected PCs will grow 1.2-fold between 2015 and
2020, to 1 million in number
•  The number of smartphones grew 30% during 2015, reaching 29 million in
number.
•  The number of smartphones will grow 2.0-fold between 2015 and 2020,
reaching 58 million in number.

Mobile Connection Speeds
•  Average mobile connection speed was 619 kbps in 2015.
•  Average mobile connection speed will grow 4.1-fold (32% CAGR) from 2015 to
2020, reaching 2,515 kbps by 2020
By Device
•  Average smartphone connection speed was 4,580 kbps in 2015
•  Average smartphone connection speed will grow 1.7-fold from 2015 to 2020,
reaching 7,766 kbps by 2020
•  Average tablet connection speed was 6,418 kbps in 2015
•  Average tablet connection speed will grow 1.8-fold from 2015 to 2020, reaching
11,752 kbps by 2020.

By Network Connection Type
•  In 2015 the average 4G speed was 10,730 kbps, the average 3G speed was
1,801 kbps, and the average 2G speed was 65 kbps.
•  By 2020 the average 4G speed will be 17,921 kbps, the average 3G speed will
be 3,785 kbps, and the average 2G speed will be 79 kbps
•  In 2015 the average Wi-Fi connection speed was 4,358 kbps, up 19% from
3,677 kbps in 2014
•  In 2020 the average Wi-Fi connection speed will be 7,603 kbps, up 1.7-fold
(12% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020.
•  The average 3G speed will grow 2.1-fold (16% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020,
reaching 3,785 kbps by 2020.
•  The average 2G speed will grow 1.2-fold (4% CAGR) from 2015 to 2020,
reaching 79 kbps by 2020.

Conclusion

Cisco VNI Argentina Mobile Forecast, 2015–2020
Key Takeaways / Summary
Back to Trends Menu
AR MOBILE USERS By 2020, there will be 38.3 Million mobile users,
representing 84% of the AR population.
AR MOBILE DEVICES/CONNECTIONS By 2020, there will be 1.9 mobile connections
per capita.
AR MOBILE NETWORK SPEEDS By 2020, avg mobile connection speed will increase
4.1X (619 Kbps to 2.515 Mbps).
AR MOBILE VIDEO By 2020, over 75% of the AR’s mobile data traffic
will be video.
AR MOBILE TRAFFIC OFFLOAD By 2020, 47% of mobile data traffic will be
offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.
AR MOBILE SMART DEVICES TRAFFIC By 2020, smart devices will generate
98% of mobile data traffic.
AR MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC By 2020, mobile data traffic will reach
165.2 PB /per month.

Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2015–2020
Get more info—see Tools and Resources
Back to Trends Menu
www.cisco.com/go/vni
traffic-inquiries@cisco.com

Presentación del VNI Argentina - Febrero 2016

Presentación del VNI Argentina - Febrero 2016

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Presentación del VNI Argentina - Febrero 2016