The document examines rural housing affordability in Oregon. It finds that while overall rural affordability is better than urban areas, some rural counties face equivalent challenges to the least affordable urban counties. Regional patterns show wide variation, with counties in eastern and southwestern Oregon generally less affordable. The most expensive rural counties have price-to-income ratios exceeding 5. Factors driving differences in rural affordability include housing values, incomes, population growth, and economic performance across counties. While high home values are positive for current homeowners, affordability should be the goal of housing policy, and declining populations could impact the ability of rural homeowners to sell in the future.

1. Rural Housing
Affordability
February 2017
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

2. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
2
Overall Rural Affordability is
Better, but not Everywhere
Median Price to
Income Ratio:
Rural – 2.4
Urban – 2.9
10% least
affordable rural
counties face
equivalent of 20%
least affordable
urban counties

3. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
3
Regional Patterns Stand Out
Rural Housing Affordability (Price to Income Ratio)
Data:AmericanCommunitySurvey, 2011-2015 Estimates
Source:Census, Oregon Office ofEconomic Analysis
Map Template:www.clearlyandsimply.com
60-80th Percentile
(2.5-3.1)
80-90th Percentile
(3.1-3.7)
90th+ Percentile
(>3.7)
Urban County
< 20th Percentile
(<1.9)
20-40th Percentile
(1.9-2.2)
40-60th Percentile
(2.2-2.5)

4. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
4
Rural Oregon is Expensive
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
NumberofCounties
Rural America Housing Affordability
Median Home Value to Median Household Income Ratio
Source: Census (2011-2015 American Community Survey), Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Price to Income Ratio
Morrow (2.4, 52nd)
Gilliam, Harney (2.7, 68th)
Umatilla (3.0, 78th)
Jefferson (3.2, 83rd)
Wheeler (3.4, 86th)
Baker, Malheur (3.6, 88th)
Sherman, Union (3.7, 90th)
Klamath, Grant (3.8, 91st)
Lake, Wasco (4.0, 93rd)
Douglas (4.1, 94th)
Coos (4.4, 95th)
Crook (4.5, 95th)
Wallowa (5.0, 97th)
Lincoln, Tillamook (5.2, 98th)
Clatsop, Curry (5.3, 98th)
Hood River (5.8, 99th)
County(Price-Income Ratio, National Percentile)U.S. Rural Median (2.37)

5. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
5
What Drives Affordability
Differences?

6. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
6
Rural County Scatter

7. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
7
High Valuations Not All Bad,
But Shouldn’t Be Goal of Policy
Flipside of
affordability
challenges is high
values are positive for
current homeowners
in terms of asset
valuations. Not that
that should be the
goal of housing
policy, of course.
More rural
households own their
homes outright, or
with no mortgage.
Potential problem
may be ability to sell
rural homes in
regions facing
declining populations
and/or
underperforming
economies.

8. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
8
Contact
mark.mcmullen@oregon.gov
(503) 378-3455
josh.lehner@oregon.gov
(503) 378-4052
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis