Oregon Income Trends
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Overview of income trends in the state of Oregon. Comparing total personal income, wages, transfer payments over time and across regions within Oregon. Assessing the Great Recession's impact on median family incomes in the Portland and Salem regions. Also showing how to apply Census and BEA income data to similar topics and pair with other data sources, like housing costs, household debt, and job polarization.
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Oregon Income Trends
- 1. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Oregon Income Trends October 2015 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh Lehner
- 2. 2 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Overview • Big Picture Trends • Per capita income, poverty, and income source • Household Income • Changes, low-income demographics, and debt • Regional Income Trends • Comparisons, business cycle impacts and educational attainment • Data Sources • Incomplete list of good sources
- 3. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Big Picture Trends
- 4. 4 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Historical Look at Income vs Wages 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20102015 Oregon Personal Income Share of U.S., 4 Quarter Moving Average Source: BEA, IHS Global Insight, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Per Capita Personal Income Average Wage
- 5. 5 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis State Poverty in Perspective
- 6. 6 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Averageincome Age Wage/Salary/Self-employment Interest/dividend/rental income Social Security Retirement Sup. SS, Public Assist. & Other All other income Income, Sources and Age Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, ACS 2011-13, PUMS. For More on Aging Revenues: http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/03/19/aging-revenues/
- 7. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Household Income
- 8. 8 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Oregon Household Income Distribution 2014 American Community Survey Rural Urban
- 9. 9 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% U.S. PortlandMSA Oregon Portland LakeOswego Hillsboro Tualatin OregonCity Milwaukie Beaverton Vancouver Tigard Gresham Region City Median Family Income, 2008-2013 Inflation (Core PCE)
- 10. 10 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% U.S. Oregon SalemMSA Springfield Corvallis Salem Eugene Keizer Albany Woodburn Region City Median Family Income, 2008-2013 Inflation (Core PCE)
- 11. 11 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis -15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 < $25k $25-50k $50-75k $75-100k $100-150k > $150k Thousands Portland MSA Households by Income Change from 2007 to 2014 Housing Affordability* Rent $450 $625+ $1,250+ $1,875+ $2,500+ $3,750+ Home Price $80k $120k+ $240k+ $360k+ $480k+ $730k+ *Monthly housing costs equal to 30% of income. Home price assumes 20% down payment, 4% 30 year fixed mortgage, average property taxes and homeowners insurance. | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis More High Income Households Today
- 12. 12 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Number of Low-Income Oregonians by Age Notes: Low-Income Defined as Less than 200% FPL, Source: 2011-13 Census Public Use Microdataset
- 13. 13 Single Adult, 1 Child, 22,686 Single Adult, 2 Children, 31,816 Single Adult, 3 Children, 21,410 Single Adult, 4 Children, 7,897 Single Adult, 5+ Children, 2,784 Multiple Adults, 1 Child, 51,620 Multiple Adults, 2 Children, 100,707 Multiple Adults, 3 Children, 83,951 Multiple Adults, 4 Children, 37,576 Multiple Adults, 5+ Children, 32,966 All Children Below 200% of Federal Poverty Level
- 14. 14 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Household Debt Stabilizing
- 15. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Regional Income Trends
- 16. 16 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Real Income Trends $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Thousands Oregon Real Per Capita Personal Income Portland MSA Other Urban Rural Latest Data: 2013 | Source: BEA, BLS, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 17. 17 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Unfortunately Oregon Has Been Here Before -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% Peak 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 yr 6 yr 7 Yr 8 Yr PercentJobLoss Oregon Employment Loss by Recession '73 '01 '80'07 '48 '53 '69 '60 '90 Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 18. 18 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% Peak 5 Years 10 Years Recessionary Income Losses in Oregon Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments South Coast ('78) Southern ('06) Central ('08) Latest Data: 2013 | Source: BEA, BLS, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
- 19. 19 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Shifting Income Composition $- $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 South Coast Per Capita Personal Income, 000s 2013$ Wages Transfers Other $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 South Coast Per Capita Personal Income, 000s 2013$
- 20. 20 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Labor Market Changes
- 21. 21 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Local Comparative Advantage? - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Management Healthcare… Legal Engineer/Arch Computer /… Business,… Scientists Teachers Construction Arts, Design, Ent Protective… Install, Maint,… Community… Sales Production Admin Support Transportation Heathcare… Agriculture Bldg Cleaning… Personal Care Food Prep Coast Workers with High School or Less Actual Worker Distribution Statewide Average Equiv. - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Management Healthcare… Legal Engineer/Arch Computer /… Business,… Scientists Teachers Construction Arts, Design, Ent Protective… Install, Maint,… Community… Sales Production Admin Support Transportation Heathcare… Agriculture Bldg Cleaning… Personal Care Food Prep Coast Workers with Bachelor's or More Actual Worker Distribution Statewide Average Equiv.
- 22. 22 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Local Comparative Advantage -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% Bend Corvallis Eugene Salem Portland S. Oregon Medford Gorge NE Oregon N. Coast SE Oregon Transportation
- 23. 23 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Data Sources • Census and Fact Finder • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis • County/MSA income by source since 1969 • Oregon Employment Department and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics • Wages by industry, occupation, county • BLS: Consumer Expenditure Survey • Federal Reserve • Board of Governors (Survey of Consumer Finance) • Bank of New York (Household Debt)
- 24. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 24 For More Information Josh Lehner joshua.lehner@oregon.gov (503) 378-4052 Social Media: www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis