Presentation to the Oregon Legislature on the latest economic and revenue outlook for the State of Oregon. Overview of the U.S. and international economic landscape in addition to what is happening in Oregon. Tax revenue tracking and outlook for personal income taxes, corporate income taxes and Lottery sales.

1. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic and Revenue
Outlook: June 2016
June 3rd, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Mark McMullen
Josh Lehner

2. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic Update and
Outlook
2

3. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic Outlook
3

4. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Diminishing Slack
4

5. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
U.S. Weakness is Concentrated
5

6. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Global Weakness To Hit Oregon
6

7. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Intel Layoffs
7

8. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Intel Layoffs
8

9. 9
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Affordability
Quality
of Life
Job
Availability
Policy
The Housing Trilemma
Cities face tradeoffs in terms of
housing affordability, job availability
and quality of life. Comparing the
100 largest MSAs in the country.
Source: David Albouy, BEA, BLS, Census,
IHS Global Insight, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Youngstown, OH
Detroit, MI •
Cincinnati, OH • Houston, TX •
• Atlanta, GA
• Phoenix, AZ
• Omaha, NE
Oklahoma City, OK •
Des Moines, IA•
• Seattle, WA
Portland, OR •
San Francisco, CA •
Boise, ID •
Providence, RI •
Sacramento, CA •

10. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Housing Supply is Low
10

11. 11
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Rural Price to Income Ratio
> 4.5
3.3-4.5
2.3-3.3
< 2.3
Urban
Data: AmericanCommunitySurvey, 2009-2014 Estimates
Source: Census, Oregon Office ofEconomic Analysis
Map Template: www.clearlyandsimply.com

12. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Demographic Drag Abating
12

13. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
New Minimum Wage Legislation
13

14. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Revenue Trends
14

15. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Final Payments Tracking Low
15

16. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
So are Refunds, Which is Good
16

17. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Kicker Credits by Week
17

18. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2015 Income Growth Down Across
The Board
18
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Interest Cap GainsDividends Pensions Total
Income
Tax After
Credits
Wages IRAs Business Social
Security
Schedule
E
Matched Returns, Full Year Filers, % change
2014 2015

19. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Corporate Taxes Turn Down
19

20. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Revenue Outlook
20

21. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Lottery: La Center, WA Casino
21

22. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2015-17 Forecast Evolution
22

23. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Forecast Changes
23
June 2016 Forecast Changes Relative to the March 2016 Outlook
(millions of dollars)
2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23 2023-25
General Fund
Revenues $16.9 $132.6 $134.9 $60.9 -$51.6
Other General Fund Changes
Beginning Balance $0.0 -$57.1 $0.9 $1.7 $0.8
ORDF Transfer $0.0 -$0.7 -$0.7 -$1.3 -$0.6
Expenditures -$74.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Sub-Total -$74.0 -$57.9 $0.2 $0.4 $0.2
General Fund Ending Balance -$57.1 $0.9 $1.7 $0.8 -$0.6
Lottery Fund
Revenues $37.2 -$55.1 -$46.8 -$19.4 -$20.8
Other Lottery Changes
Beginning Balance $0.0 $39.9 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Total Available Resources -$19.9 $59.6 $88.2 $41.8 -$72.3

24. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2424
Forecast Changes
Difference from March Forecast, $ millions
54.1
117.4
88.0
41.5
-72.5
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23 2023-25
Personal Corporate Lottery Other Total

25. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2525
Biennial Revenue Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Personal Income Taxes Total Net Revenue

26. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
26
Reserves
Effective Reserves ($ millions)
Apr
2016
End
2015-17
ESF $257.5 $381.6
RDF $371.7 $387.9
Reserves $629.2 $769.5
Ending
Balance $261.8 $261.8
Total $891.1 $1,031.4
% of GF 4.9% 5.7%

27. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
27
For More Information
Standard Contact:
155 Cottage Street NE
Salem, OR 97301
(503) 378-3405
oea.info@state.or.us
www.oregon.gov/das/oea
Social Media:
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@OR_EconAnalysis