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M e a s u r e C a m p , A m s t e r d a m , A p r i l 9 t h 2 0 1 6 
To n W e s s e l i n g - F o u n d e r - Te s t i n g . A g e n c y 
Tw i t t e r : @ To n W - To n @ Te s t i n g . A g e n c y 
Utilize your test capacity
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Johan Cruijff
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Johan Cruijff
1947 - 2016
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Lead the way
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
”You will only be able to
see it once you get it.”
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Online Dialogue
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Testing.Agency
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Test capacity
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Test capacity
maximum number of
a/b-tests per year
that you could run
on your users
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
What do companies do within CRO?
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Are companies improving conversion?
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Is it because of the easy of testing?
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Most effective to improve conversions
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Regret
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Regret
amount of money
you are losing per year by
not using your full test capacity
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
the
ROAR
model
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
10.000 conversions
per month
1.000 conversions
per month
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
How much impact do you need?
http://ondi.me/size
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
10.000 conversions
per month
1.000 conversions
per month
15% impact
needed
5% impact
needed
Impact needed: all conversions with an average conversion rate of 2%, a test length of 3 weeks and a power of 80%
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Yes, I’ve got those 1000+ conversions
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
With 1000+ conversions a month
Your test capacity is max.
20+ tests a year

with a statistical power of 80%
on predicted uplifts of 15%
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests with measurable impact
On average
1 out of 3
Simple truth: you’re just not always able to create a winner with enough impact
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
So in this case, you’ve got impact
Every 7 or 8 weeks
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Slower? Energy will run out!
And your continous optimization program will die
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
What to test? Business cases!
Delivery –test with
in stock. 4 weeks
or 2 days?
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
What to test? Business cases!
Service charge, do
it or not? Include in
price or not?
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
What to test? Big design changes
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
ROAR – Optimization – moving up
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Source: Psychology
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Use that persuasion knowledge
Wheel-of-Persuasion.com
Resource & courses
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
+ Optimization + Automation
Back to the ROAR model
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
ROAR – Optimization – moving up
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Test capacity users
IT releases Campaigns Behavior
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
IT release testing
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
IT release testing
Testing to see if the release is not
lowering the conversion rate
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Main result example
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Campaign testing
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Multi-arm bandit problem
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Maximize your exploitation
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Behavior learning
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Behavior learning
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Store your learnings
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
That’s why you need the traffic
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Test capacity users
IT releases Campaigns Behavior
25% or less 25% or less 50% or more
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Calculating behavioral capacity
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Behavioral knowledge test capacity
•  Sum your # tests per element
•  Take the behavior share
•  divide by 2 (no major overlap!)
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Behavioral knowledge test capacity
•  Sum your # tests per element
•  Take the behavior share
•  divide by 2 (no major overlap!)
•  Consider your resources
•  Get resources or test with higher Power
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Winner ratio
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Winner ratio
•  Know your % winners bottom limit
•  Better testing
•  Bolder testing
•  Less testing (more data in 1 test)
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Winner
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
No Winner?
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Or Winner?
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Yes, business case
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Session: Annemarie Klaassen
Usabilla room:
13.40 – 14:10
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Bayesian tools & pdf
R Calculator: ondi.me/bayes 
White Paper PDF
Free download:
http://ondi.me/change
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Be a pro, like Johan was
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
ü  Use your full test capacity by
great planning
ü  Separate test bandwidth for IT,
campaigns and for learnings
ü  Think like a manager – work with
business cases
Be a pro, like Johan was
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
An the whole company will love you
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
One more thing
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
One more thing
Celebrate failures
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Celebrate failures
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Not enough winners?
Your continous optimization program will die
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Session: Jorrin & Tom
Usabilla room:
14.15 – 14:45
M e a s u r e C a m p , A m s t e r d a m , A p r i l 9 t h 2 0 1 6 
To n W e s s e l i n g - F o u n d e r - Te s t i n g . A g e n c y 
Tw i t t e r : @ To n W - To n @ Te s t i n g . A g e n c y 
Utilize your test capacity
Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
 Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Conversion.Camp
Get a ticket: http://anali.st/ccfriends

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When to run how many A/B-tests (based on data) - MeasureCamp Amsterdam - Ton Wesseling

  • 1.
  • 2. M e a s u r e C a m p , A m s t e r d a m , A p r i l 9 t h 2 0 1 6 To n W e s s e l i n g - F o u n d e r - Te s t i n g . A g e n c y Tw i t t e r : @ To n W - To n @ Te s t i n g . A g e n c y Utilize your test capacity
  • 3. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
  • 4. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
  • 5. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Johan Cruijff
  • 6. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Johan Cruijff 1947 - 2016
  • 7. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
  • 8. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Lead the way
  • 9. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp ”You will only be able to see it once you get it.”
  • 10. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Online Dialogue
  • 11. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Testing.Agency
  • 12. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Test capacity
  • 13. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Test capacity maximum number of a/b-tests per year that you could run on your users
  • 14. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp What do companies do within CRO?
  • 15. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Are companies improving conversion?
  • 16. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Is it because of the easy of testing?
  • 17. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Most effective to improve conversions
  • 18. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Regret
  • 19. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Regret amount of money you are losing per year by not using your full test capacity
  • 20. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp the ROAR model
  • 21. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth
  • 22. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth
  • 23. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth
  • 24. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth Risk
  • 25. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization
  • 26. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization + Automation
  • 27. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
  • 28. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think 1.000 conversions per month
  • 29. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think 10.000 conversions per month 1.000 conversions per month
  • 30. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp How much impact do you need? http://ondi.me/size
  • 31. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Optimization phases - ROAR Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think 10.000 conversions per month 1.000 conversions per month 15% impact needed 5% impact needed Impact needed: all conversions with an average conversion rate of 2%, a test length of 3 weeks and a power of 80%
  • 32. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Yes, I’ve got those 1000+ conversions Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think 1.000 conversions per month 10.000 conversions per month
  • 33. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp With 1000+ conversions a month Your test capacity is max. 20+ tests a year with a statistical power of 80% on predicted uplifts of 15%
  • 34. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Tests with measurable impact On average 1 out of 3 Simple truth: you’re just not always able to create a winner with enough impact
  • 35. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp So in this case, you’ve got impact Every 7 or 8 weeks
  • 36. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Slower? Energy will run out! And your continous optimization program will die
  • 37. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp What to test? Business cases! Delivery –test with in stock. 4 weeks or 2 days?
  • 38. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp What to test? Business cases! Service charge, do it or not? Include in price or not?
  • 39. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp What to test? Big design changes
  • 40. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp ROAR – Optimization – moving up Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think 1.000 conversions per month 10.000 conversions per month
  • 41. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Source: Psychology
  • 42. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Use that persuasion knowledge Wheel-of-Persuasion.com Resource & courses
  • 43. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Tests that can be done
  • 44. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Tests that can be done
  • 45. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Tests that can be done
  • 46. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Tests that can be done
  • 47. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Tests that can be done
  • 48. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Tests that can be done
  • 49. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Tests that can be done
  • 50. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp + Optimization + Automation Back to the ROAR model Time span Conversionspermonth Risk Re-think 1.000 conversions per month 10.000 conversions per month
  • 51. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp ROAR – Optimization – moving up Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think 1.000 conversions per month 10.000 conversions per month
  • 52. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Test capacity users IT releases Campaigns Behavior
  • 53. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp IT release testing
  • 54. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp IT release testing Testing to see if the release is not lowering the conversion rate
  • 55. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Main result example
  • 56. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Campaign testing
  • 57. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Multi-arm bandit problem
  • 58. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Maximize your exploitation
  • 59. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Behavior learning
  • 60. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Behavior learning
  • 61. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Store your learnings
  • 62. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp That’s why you need the traffic Time span Conversionspermonth Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think 1.000 conversions per month 10.000 conversions per month
  • 63. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Test capacity users IT releases Campaigns Behavior 25% or less 25% or less 50% or more
  • 64. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Calculating behavioral capacity
  • 65. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Behavioral knowledge test capacity •  Sum your # tests per element •  Take the behavior share •  divide by 2 (no major overlap!)
  • 66. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Behavioral knowledge test capacity •  Sum your # tests per element •  Take the behavior share •  divide by 2 (no major overlap!) •  Consider your resources •  Get resources or test with higher Power
  • 67. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Winner ratio
  • 68. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Winner ratio •  Know your % winners bottom limit •  Better testing •  Bolder testing •  Less testing (more data in 1 test)
  • 69. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Winner
  • 70. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp No Winner?
  • 71. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Or Winner?
  • 72. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Yes, business case
  • 73. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Session: Annemarie Klaassen Usabilla room: 13.40 – 14:10
  • 74. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Bayesian tools & pdf R Calculator: ondi.me/bayes White Paper PDF Free download: http://ondi.me/change
  • 75. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Be a pro, like Johan was
  • 76. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp ü  Use your full test capacity by great planning ü  Separate test bandwidth for IT, campaigns and for learnings ü  Think like a manager – work with business cases Be a pro, like Johan was
  • 77. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp An the whole company will love you
  • 78. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp One more thing
  • 79. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp One more thing Celebrate failures
  • 80. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Celebrate failures
  • 81. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Not enough winners? Your continous optimization program will die
  • 82. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Session: Jorrin & Tom Usabilla room: 14.15 – 14:45
  • 83. M e a s u r e C a m p , A m s t e r d a m , A p r i l 9 t h 2 0 1 6 To n W e s s e l i n g - F o u n d e r - Te s t i n g . A g e n c y Tw i t t e r : @ To n W - To n @ Te s t i n g . A g e n c y Utilize your test capacity
  • 84. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp Conversion.Camp Get a ticket: http://anali.st/ccfriends