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When to run how many A/B-tests (based on data) - MeasureCamp Amsterdam - Ton Wesseling
1.
2. M e a s u r e C a m p , A m s t e r d a m , A p r i l 9 t h 2 0 1 6
To n W e s s e l i n g - F o u n d e r - Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
Tw i t t e r : @ To n W - To n @ Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
Utilize your test capacity
3. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
4. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
5. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Johan Cruijff
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Johan Cruijff
1947 - 2016
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Lead the way
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
”You will only be able to
see it once you get it.”
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Online Dialogue
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Testing.Agency
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Test capacity
13. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Test capacity
maximum number of
a/b-tests per year
that you could run
on your users
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What do companies do within CRO?
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Are companies improving conversion?
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Is it because of the easy of testing?
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Most effective to improve conversions
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Regret
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Regret
amount of money
you are losing per year by
not using your full test capacity
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
the
ROAR
model
21. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
22. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
23. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
24. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk
25. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization
26. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation
27. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
28. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
29. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
10.000 conversions
per month
1.000 conversions
per month
30. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
How much impact do you need?
http://ondi.me/size
31. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Optimization phases - ROAR
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
10.000 conversions
per month
1.000 conversions
per month
15% impact
needed
5% impact
needed
Impact needed: all conversions with an average conversion rate of 2%, a test length of 3 weeks and a power of 80%
32. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Yes, I’ve got those 1000+ conversions
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
33. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
With 1000+ conversions a month
Your test capacity is max.
20+ tests a year
with a statistical power of 80%
on predicted uplifts of 15%
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Tests with measurable impact
On average
1 out of 3
Simple truth: you’re just not always able to create a winner with enough impact
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So in this case, you’ve got impact
Every 7 or 8 weeks
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Slower? Energy will run out!
And your continous optimization program will die
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What to test? Business cases!
Delivery –test with
in stock. 4 weeks
or 2 days?
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What to test? Business cases!
Service charge, do
it or not? Include in
price or not?
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
What to test? Big design changes
40. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
ROAR – Optimization – moving up
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Source: Psychology
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Use that persuasion knowledge
Wheel-of-Persuasion.com
Resource & courses
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Tests that can be done
44. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
45. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
46. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
47. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
48. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Tests that can be done
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
+ Optimization + Automation
Back to the ROAR model
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
51. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
ROAR – Optimization – moving up
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
52. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Test capacity users
IT releases Campaigns Behavior
53. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
IT release testing
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IT release testing
Testing to see if the release is not
lowering the conversion rate
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Main result example
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Campaign testing
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Multi-arm bandit problem
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Maximize your exploitation
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Behavior learning
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Behavior learning
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Store your learnings
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
That’s why you need the traffic
Time span
Conversionspermonth
Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think
1.000 conversions
per month
10.000 conversions
per month
63. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Test capacity users
IT releases Campaigns Behavior
25% or less 25% or less 50% or more
64. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Calculating behavioral capacity
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Behavioral knowledge test capacity
• Sum your # tests per element
• Take the behavior share
• divide by 2 (no major overlap!)
66. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Behavioral knowledge test capacity
• Sum your # tests per element
• Take the behavior share
• divide by 2 (no major overlap!)
• Consider your resources
• Get resources or test with higher Power
67. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Winner ratio
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Winner ratio
• Know your % winners bottom limit
• Better testing
• Bolder testing
• Less testing (more data in 1 test)
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Winner
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No Winner?
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Or Winner?
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Yes, business case
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Session: Annemarie Klaassen
Usabilla room:
13.40 – 14:10
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Bayesian tools & pdf
R Calculator: ondi.me/bayes
White Paper PDF
Free download:
http://ondi.me/change
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Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Be a pro, like Johan was
76. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
ü Use your full test capacity by
great planning
ü Separate test bandwidth for IT,
campaigns and for learnings
ü Think like a manager – work with
business cases
Be a pro, like Johan was
77. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
An the whole company will love you
78. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
One more thing
79. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
One more thing
Celebrate failures
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Celebrate failures
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Not enough winners?
Your continous optimization program will die
82. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Session: Jorrin & Tom
Usabilla room:
14.15 – 14:45
83. M e a s u r e C a m p , A m s t e r d a m , A p r i l 9 t h 2 0 1 6
To n W e s s e l i n g - F o u n d e r - Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
Tw i t t e r : @ To n W - To n @ Te s t i n g . A g e n c y
Utilize your test capacity
84. Ton Wesseling | @ TonW
Utilize your test capacity #MeasureCamp
Conversion.Camp
Get a ticket: http://anali.st/ccfriends