The ideas for cellular phones were developed in the 1940s. However, it was not until the microprocessor becomes available that practical commercial solutions are possible. Today there are more than 4 billion mobile phone subscriptions in the world. In the last few years the increase has been most dramatic in developing countries. Telecoms operators have tried to capitalise on this by offering new services that will generate new revenues for them. Mobile Applications are increasing revenues for the operators while voices revenues are getting less and less. But what are mobile applications? In this lecture we look mobile.

2. Lecture L17
THE MOBILE REVOLUTION

4. Why is the mobile
phone so important
to us?
Q1

5. 400M daily circulations of all newspapers
800M registered cars
900M total cable/satellite TV subscribers
1.1B of all types of computers (PC, netbooks...)
1.2B total landline phones
1.5B total TV sets
1.7B total unique holders of credit cards
2.1B total unique holders of bank accounts
3.9B total FM radios in use

6. Mobile Phones
6.9billion connections
!
https://gsmaintelligence.com/

7. There are more mobile phones in the
world than there are toothbrushes
Mobile Phones

8. Will grow to 8 billion
phones in the next
few years
Image:
Nokia
Mobile Phones

9. Why is the mobile
phone so important
to us?
Q1

11. Survival

12. There are 48 million people in
the world who have a mobile
phone but do not have
electricity at home
Mobile Phones
provide safety
Cisco,
January
2011

13. The Digital Revolution

14. Early Systems
The First Cell phone (1973)
Name:
Motorola
Dyna-­‐Tac
Size:
9
x
5
x
1.75
inches
Weight:
2.5
pounds
Display:
None
Number
of
Circuit
Boards:
30
Talk
time:
35
minutes
Recharge
Time:
10
hours
Features:
Talk,
listen,
dial

15. Microchip
!
Digital Signal Processor
!
Mobile phones became
practical in the 1980s
Technical Improvements

16. Cellular Networks
Radio network made up of radio
cells
!
Tower and base

17. Base stations connect to
Mobile Telephone Switching Office
MTSO
!
SID – System identification Code
!
SIM-cards
Cellular Networks

18. Handoff
Calls are automatically moved from
one cell to the next
MTSO controls the switch
!
Roaming
Connecting from one
phone company to another
Cellular Networks

19. Copyright
©
2011,
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson
Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones
▪ Mobile phones provide safety
▪ The most common device of all
▪ Mobile phones are not practical until 1980s
due to size of technology – Adjacent
Possible
▪ The invention of the microchip played
crucial role in the development of cell
phones

21. 1G Analog

22. 1G Analog
1980s
Voice only
NMT, AMPS, FDMA

23. Early systems were in Bahrain, US, Japan and in
the Nordic countries
!
First international system
was NMT in the Nordic
!
Frequency Division
Multiple Access - FDMA
1G Analog

24. Copyright
©
2011,
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson
Q2 When the first mobile phones become
possible, how does the market evolve?

25. NMT in Nordics
AMPS in the US
TACS in UK
C-Nets in West Germany
Radiocom 2000 in France
RTMI/RTMS in Italy
1G Analog

26. Copyright
©
2011,
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson
Q3 What are the characteristics of the
first mobile phones and who where
the users?

27. Big
Expensive
Limited
Characteristics
Business users
Field users
Mobira
Talkman
frá
Nokia
1G Analog
Early users

29. Copyright
©
2011,
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson
Q4 Early on multiple system were developed all
over Europe. What was the problem with that?

30. Multiple standards – roaming is a problem
!
In the US this is not a problem
1G Analog

31. European countries decide to define
common standard – digital
Work on a Global System for Mobile
Communication (GSM) starts 1982
1G Analog

32. 2G Digital

33. 1990s
Voice and data
9.6 – 14.4 Kbps
GSM, TDMA
Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 31-41 min.
2G Digital

34. Digital mobile phones appear in early 90s
!
GMS takes off in 1991 –
unites Europe
!
Time Division Multiple
Access – TDMA
2G Digital

35. Copyright
©
2011,
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson
Q5 US is slow to adopt 2G, why?

36. US was slow in adopting 2G because roaming
worked well
!
Digital did not add enough over analog
!
Texting and SIM cards was not known
2G Digital

37. GMS

38. Global System for Mobile Communication
!
Built on TDMA – Digital
!
Three times the capacity of analog, encryption,
texting, SIM cards
GMS

39. GMS
GSM association has 800
networks in 220 countries

40. Texting
Short Message System allowed 160 letters
!
Became an accidental killer app – messages,
chat, ring tones
!
First message sent 03.12.1992:
“Merry Christmas”

41. Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones
▪ Cars became the first platform for phones
▪ First phones are analog
▪ Multiple standard – each country invents its
own
– Problem with standards (history repeats itself?)
▪ Roaming problems in Europe call for a
standard
▪ Digital standard developed in Europe, G2
▪ US does not have roaming problems and
gets stuck in G1

42. 3G

43. Mobile networks and the Internet start to
converge
!
1G and 2G are circuit switched – fine for voice
The Internet is packet-switched
3G

44. 3G Packet Switching
IMT – 2000 was a global standard for 3G
mobile communications defined in mid-1990s
!
Goals:
Available 2000,
Data rage 2000 kbps,
Frequencies in the 2000 Mhz region

45. 2000s
More
data
128+
Kbps
GPSR,
EDGE,
UMTS,
CDMA
Downloading 3 min. MP3 song:
11 sec. – 1,5 min.
3G Packet Switching

46. More bandwidth, more applications
!
Email, Images, music, movies, streaming
!
Based on Code Division
Multiple Access – CDMA
3G Packet Switching

48. Copyright
©
2011,
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson

54. 3G Solutions
Messages Browsing Apps

55. Built with limitations
!
Screen size, bandwidth restrictions
Input limited – one-handed keyboard
Limited memory, battery life
!
Fragmentation nightmare
3G Solutions

56. Then, in 2007, the world changed

58. Copyright
©
2011,
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson

59. How does the
competition
respond?
Think about
The Arrogance of the Present

61. iPhone hit the market in June 2007

63. Ok, let’s check the facts
five years later

64. http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-­‐bigger-­‐than-­‐microsoft-­‐2012-­‐2

65. Copyright
©
2011,
Ólafur
Andri
Ragnarsson
The
iPhone
Effect

66. Touch screen

67. Industrial strength
desktop quality OS

68. Software and User
interface

69. Platform for Apps

70. 60 billion apps downloaded (Oct 13)

71. ~400 apps per second

72. Smartphone Market

73. Smartphone Market

74. Source: Mary Meeker Slide Deck
Smartphone Market

75. Smartphone Market

76. iPhone

77. The App Store
is to the iPhone
what iTunes is
to the iPod
!
Google Play is
the same
Availability

78. Specialized Apps
with Quality of
Service – Innovation
Context

79. Mobile media
users pick up their
phone 18 times a
day to consume
content via apps/
browser

88. Key Trends
Mobile became
important in 2010 and
will be a revenue
opportunity going
forward

89. Bandwidth on 3G
mobile networks is
growing by
approximately
400%
annually
Source: Heavy Reading
Smartphones

90. Source: Skynews
Smartphones
How long does it take to download a HD movie
3G - 1 hour
4G - 40 seconds
5G - 1 second

91. Image
courtesy
of
Admob
(Google)
Looking forward
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

92. Source:
Morgan
Stanley
Mobile vs. Desktop

93. Source:
Morgan
Stanley
Mobile vs. Desktop

94. Cameron Says UK And Germany To Work On 5G,
Internet Of Things

95. Solutions
Voice, text Apps, music, videos,

96. Worldwide tablet sales are
predicted to grow by more than
400% over a two-year period,
reaching 81.3 million units in
2012.
Tablets

98. Work
More
focused
More
information
Digital Online World
Browsing
Consuming
content
Checking
Mobile
Want’s
it
now

99. The “mobile web” is just
the web – there is only
one web. It’s just
displayed in multiple of
screen sizes
Source:
The
Next
Big
Thing:
Mobile,
http://www.olafurandri.com/?p=408