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LECTURE L06
DIFFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY
Why is it that good products can fail and inferior – “good enough”
products can succeed?

What are the customers really buying?
Menlo Park

1876-1881
Tomas Edison
Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
Enrico Caruso 

1873-1921
Edison’s ideas for the phonograph
1. Letter writing and all kinds of dictation

2. Phonographic books, which will speak to blind people

3. The teaching of elocution.

4. Reproduction of music.

5. The "Family Record” ... and of the last words of dying persons.

6. Music-boxes and toys.

7. Clocks that should announce... time for going home, going to meals, etc.

8. The preservation of languages

9. Educational purposes

10. Connection with the telephone
http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/edhtml/edcyldr.html
Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
Phonograph conclusion:
Customers wanted music by their favourite singers - the stars
Disk are more convenient
Porn Industry
Licensing Issues
Betamax standard tape was 60
minutes while VHS was 2 hours
Betamax conclusion:
Customers wanted to record and/or rent movies
Legal issues also played some part
And the Porn Industry was forced to adopt VHS
Development started 1978
Release 1983
Sold 100.000 machines
Featured preemptive multi-

tasking OS with Graphical
User Interface
Lisa conclusion:
The vision was right
Technology just was not there
Too many features
Customer Motivations
Customer are not always buying products for the reason
the inventor thinks
VisiCalc
Technological change is relatively easy
It’s the social, organisational and cultural change that is hard
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
In the early days
The innovators and technology
enthusiasts drive the market
They demand technology
Small percentage of the market
In the later days
The pragmatists and conservatives
dominate; they want solutions and
convenience
The big market
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
In the early days
THEY BUY FOR THE
WHY
In the later days
THEY BUY FOR THE
WHAT
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
VISIONARIES
WHY
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
Innovations that will transform the world
Self-driving car
MOOC - massively open online courses
Why is Apple so
successful when other
companies fail?
APPLE WAS IRRELEVANT AND 

ALMOST BACKRUPT IN 1997
IN 2012 IT WAS THE MOST 

VALUABLE COMPANY 

IN THE WORLD
image:	
  cultformac
AAPL Apple stock from 1997 to now
Brain NEO CORTX: RATIONAL, 

ANALITICAL THOUGHT, LANGUAGE
LIMBRIC SYSTEM: FEELINGS, TRUST, LOYLTY,
BEHAVIOUR, DECISION MAKING
REPTILIAN: INSTINCTS, 

HUNGER, DANGER
Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Action

Simon Sinek
FORMULA FOR SUCCESS?

1. Strong funding

2. Right people

3. Market conditions
Is this all it takes?
Samuel Pierpont Langley
Technology Adoption Life Cycle
VISIONARIES
Source:	
  Geoffrey	
  A.	
  Moore:	
  Crossing	
  the	
  chasm
Crossing the Chasm
The	
  change	
  in	
  customers	
  as	
  technology	
  matures	
  
Crossing	
  the	
  chasm	
  –	
  or	
  the	
  Tipping	
  point	
  
What triggers the tipping point?
What caused the tipping point for the iPod?
Apple	
  said	
  it	
  sold	
  a	
  record	
  22.7	
  million	
  iPods,	
  
which	
  commands	
  a	
  70%	
  share	
  of	
  the	
  U.S.	
  market	
  
for	
  music	
  players.	
  (source:	
  LA	
  times)
Apple	
  iPod	
  Sales
NEXT
BECOMING INVISIBLE

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L06 Diffusion of Innovation