The document discusses the concept of the adjacent possible, which is the idea that inventions emerge when the necessary enabling technologies are available to support them. It provides examples throughout history of how this has occurred, such as the telephone being invented in 1876 because the necessary technologies of electricity, wires, and batteries were available, whereas they were not in 1826. It also discusses concepts like Moore's Law, exponential growth, enabling technologies, prevailing technologies, layers of technology, and how perceptions of what is possible can limit or enable new innovations.

1. LECTURE L04
ADJACENT POSSIBLE

2. The S-curve
Based on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle
Improvements in
performance varies
throughout the life
of the technology

3. Number of transistors on
an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law

4. The Law of Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more
capable methods resulting from one stage of
evolutionary progress are used to create the next
stage.
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary
process increases exponentially over time.

5. Exponential World
Local and linear
Global and Exponential

6. February 14th 1876

7. Alexander G. Bell filed a
patent application at the
US Patent Office, on the
harmonic telegraph,
including its use for
transmitting vocal sounds

8. On the same day another
inventor, Elisha Gray,
filed a patent caveat for
improving the telegraph

9. The Bell vs. Gray Controversy

10. Ideas usually come at similar time
Who invented the telephone?

11. Why was the telephone invented in 1876, but
not 1826 or 1926?
With electricity, wires, batteries and with the
workmanship and tools and with the knowledge of
these, at the time, it was possible in 1876 to create
a working telephone
Think about this!

12. When All the Enabling Technologies are Ready

13. Adjacent Possible

14. Adjacent Possible
Inventions have their time in history
due to the possibilities of the
environment at any given time
Steven Johnson

15. Inventions tend to happen within the
boundaries of the adjacent possible,
or the realm of possibilities available
at any given moment
Steven Johnson
Adjacent Possible

16. ...a kind of shadow future, hovering on
the edges of the present state of
things, a map of all the ways in which
the present can reinvent itself
Steven Johnson
Adjacent Possible

18. Enabling Technology
Existing technology that can be used
to build new technologies

19. Why was the computer
invented in the 1940s
and not in the 1840s?
Think about this!

20. Charles Babbage
Sometimes called
Inventor of the
Computer
Wanted to remove the
inevitable human errors
from computing

21. Believed that
machines could
replace laborious and
error-prone
calculations -
“calculate by steam”
Charles Babbage

23. Machine to compute polynomials
Got grants but efforts were slow
Lack of workmanship of the time
delayed the project
Worked stopped 1833
Difference Engine

25. Analytical engine
Babbage started on a new machine in 1834
Programmable machine – with
primitive programming language
Input was in punched cards
Run by steam

26. Augusta Ada Byron
Countess of Lovelace
Mathematician and
scientist
Worked with Babbage on
his Analytical Engine
The first programmer

28. Notes by the Translator
Ada wrote notes on the Analytical machine
1. General purpose machine - mill to
calculate, store to keep data, and
formulas
2. Machine was not limited to math -
could by any symbol - words, logic,
music
3. Step by step instructions - programs,
subroutines

29. The Analytical Engine was a failure
It was never built
It was not possible of the time
Adjacent Possible

30. The room was
too far out
No doors
Adjacent Possible

31. When all the enabling
technologies are ready, new
inventions will be emerge
Adjacent Possible

32. The inventor must use the
components that exist in his
environment
Steven Johnson
Adjacent Possible

33. Image source: http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm
Vacuum tubes were used
to build computers

34. Toaster

35. Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project

36. Source: TED.com

37. “Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster.
He could just about make a sandwich
and that was it.”
— Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams, 1992

40. “And that was something that reoccurred
throughout the project, was, the smaller the scale
you want to work on, the further back in time you
have to go”
— Thomas Thwaites

41. Layers of Technology

42. Prevailing Technology
The dominant
technology at any
given time
New inventions will
improve
Source: www.pianoworld.com/gallery/piano_pictures2.htm

43. Alexander G. Bell was
trying to create an
harmonic telegraph to
improve the telegraph,
the prevailing
communication
technology at the time

44. Ideas build upon Ideas
Every generation of
technology
becomes a source
for new innovations

45. Combinatory Process
New technology is created
by combining other existing
technology in new ways

46. Layers of Technology
Technologies evolves layer by
layer, from simple to complex
technologies

47. Web of Technology
Products are made using different parts
using many technologies - confection of
ideas

48. Gall’s Law
All complex systems that work, evolved from
simpler system that worked

49. “I, Pencil” by Leonard E. Read

50. “The most important single
central fact about a free market
is that no exchange takes place
unless both parties benefit.”
— Milton Friedman

52. The Law of Disappearing Technology
When some technique is mastered, it
will “disappear” as something
obvious and trivial, and other more
useful things that are built on top of it

53. That means when
technology disappears
it becomes useful
The Law of Disappearing Technology

54. Electricity
The Law of Disappearing Technology

55. Internet
The Law of Disappearing Technology

56. The Resistance Corollary
Even outdated things that
should “disappear” don’t
due to supposed importance

57. Phone books
Checks
Fax machines
Keys
Plastic cards
Landline phones
Printed
newspapers
Lottery terminals
Technology that should disappear…
Flashlight
Check-in machine

58. The Prevailing Technology Trap

61. The Prevailing Technology Trap

62. The Prevailing Technology Trap
Current and dominant technology will highly
influence new innovation, and can even restrict
them
Innovators are so influenced by the current
technologies that they will try to work according
to them, including their limitations

63. Technology Cramming

64. Technology Cramming

66. Two Waves of Products Development
In the first wave the product is
restricted by the prevailing
technology, but in the second,
there is something new

67. Web 1.0 Web 2.0
Two Waves of Products Development

68. One2Many
Many2Many
Two Waves of Products Development

69. Perception of Technology

70. Perception of Technology
The current state of technology
very much creates our
perception of what we think is
possible and at the same time
limits our ability to invent

71. Perception of Technology
Perceptions are slow to change
and usually we need to
experience new technology to
change our perception

72. Perception of Technology
In 2000, talking about the future of
the car as being electric and self-
driving was outrageous
Any fool that would suggest this was
laughed to scorn

74. First time…

76. Perception of Technology
With self-driving cars available cities
might change…

77. What a driverless world could look like
Wanis Kabbaj

79. Uber's air taxi revealed at CES 2019
What The Future

81. Timeline
Each wave creates number of
new inventions

82. When the time is right,
new ideas will emerge
Timeline

83. Next
L05 Technological Revolutions