1. The Structure and Dynamics of
Th S dD i f
Online Political Discussions
Online Political Discussions
Sandra Gonzalez‐Bailon
sandra.gonzalezbailon@oii.ox.ac.uk
d l b il ii k

2. The Questions We Will Consider Today:
• Do online political discussions promote
deliberation? (focus: structure of discussion threads)
deliberation? (focus: structure of discussion threads)
Gonzalez‐Bailon, Kaltenbrunner and Banchs (2010) “The Structure of Political
Discussion Networks: A Model for the Analysis of Online Deliberation“,
Di i N t k A M d l f th A l i f O li D lib ti “
Journal of Information Technology, 25 (2): 230‐243
• Can we use online political discussions to track
p
public opinion? (focus: content of discussions)
p (f f )
Gonzalez‐Bailon, Kaltenbrunner and Banchs (2010) “Emotional Reactions and
the Pulse of Public Opinion: Measuring the Impact of Political Events on the
the Pulse of Public Opinion: Measuring the Impact of Political Events on the
Sentiment of Online Discussions”, under review

3. Paper 1: Analysing Deliberation
p y g

4. The Logic of Deliberation
• Based on social interactions, not on private decisions
• Superior form of collective decision making:
()
(i) Decisions are more informed (plurality of views)
(p y )
(ii) Decisions are more legitimate (all voices are
represented)

5. The Logic of Deliberation
• Based on social interactions, not on private decisions
• Superior form of collective decision making:
()
(i) Decisions are more informed (plurality of views)
(p y )
(ii) Decisions are more legitimate (all voices are
represented)
Deliberation requires:
D lib i i
Multiple points of view and conflictive arguments
Multiple points of view and conflictive arguments
Do political discussions involve more points of view and
p p f
more argumentation?

6. The Analysis of Online Deliberation: Data

7. Data: September 2005 to August 2006
# posts (N=10016) # comments (N=2075085)
yro yro
science science
politics politics
linux linux
it it
interviews interviews
hardware hardware
games games
features features
developers developers
bsd bsd
books books
backslash backslash
ask ask
apple apple Thousands
Hundreds apache
apache
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0 5 10 15 20 25
# users (N=93636)
yro
science
politics
linux
it
interviews
hardware
games
features
developers
bsd
books
backslash
ask
apple
Thousands
apache
0 10 20 30 40 50

8. Discussion Threads as Hierarchical Networks
Post
Layer 1 Comment Comment
Layer 2 Comment
C t Comment
C t Comment
C t
Layer 3
L Comment
C Comment
C Comment
C Comment
C

9. Discussion Threads as Hierarchical Networks
Post
Layer 1 Comment Comment
Layer 2 Comment
C t Comment
C t Comment
C t depth
d th
Layer 3
L Comment
C Comment
C Comment
C Comment
C
width

10. Four Types of Discussion
max
Type II Type I
T
tion)
depth (argumentat
Type III Type IV
min max
width
(representation)
( i )

11. Models of Decision Making (Who and What)
Ackerman, B., and J. S. Fishkin (2002) Deliberation Day. The Journal of Political Philosophy, v. 10,
n. 2, p. 150.

12. The Empirical Measurement of Deliberation
p
max
Type II
T Type I
T
tation)
dept (argument
Type III Type IV
th
min max
width
(representation)

13. Classification of Discussions in Possibility Space
max
Type II Type I
ation)
dep (argumenta
Type III Type IV
pth
min max
width
(representation)
( t ti )

14. Additional Measures of Width and Depth
Width Depth
Max # comments # nested levels
Total # comments H‐index users
Total # use s
# users H‐index comments
H i dex co e ts

15. Classification of Discussions in Possibility Space
max
Type II Type I
ation)
dep (argumenta
Type III Type IV
pth
min max
width
(representation)
( t ti )

16. Conclusions
Do political discussions involve more points of view
and more argumentation?
and more argumentation?
Yes. They reproduce important pre‐conditions for
Yes They reproduce important pre conditions for
deliberation to take place.
Future research
Comparative analysis: do other online forums
promote the same type of dynamics?
promote the same type of dynamics?

17. Paper 2: Analysing Public Opinion
p y g p

18. The Importance of Public Opinion
p p
• Public opinion: proxy to the way citizens
u i opi io p o y o e ay i i e
perceive political issues and react to current
affairs
•S
Surveys and Polls – mechanism behind
d P ll h i b hi d
opinion tides? (focus: emotions)
 What explains polarisation and volatility?
p p y

19. Measuring the Emotional Content of Discussions
g
Valence
Arousal
A l
Dominance
Bradley and Lang. 1999. ʺAffective norms for English words (ANEW) Technical report C‐1.ʺ
The Center for Research in Psychophysiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.
y p y gy, y , ,
Dodds and Danforth. 2009. ʺMeasuring the Happiness of Large‐Scale Written Expression:
Songs, Blogs, and Presidents.ʺ Journal of Happiness Studies DOI: 10.1007/s10902‐009‐9150‐9.

20. Data: Usenet Political Discussions (1999‐2005)
x 10000 8
6
4
2
0
09/1999 09/2000 09/2001 09/2002 09/2003 09/2004
gun white war war world war war
white
black
gun white news
world gun white
people news
white
news
time world
good time
news war news terrorist peace gun death
world time people
o d
people people
l news time
people
hate house dead
peoplegood
black terrorist party
hate dead
hatewhite
socialdead
hate world war house good f ree man truth lie
man house good man
party free black death hate party death house party
deathgood
mancrime time man dead black free black lie god death
truth gun torture fraud win free
house time house peace truth free
letter god terrorist
t i t gun bl k
black
money boy
abortion flag
party
world
good cut
death
power
hate man
fraud free
truthcrime

21. Discussions become unhappier over time...
pp

22. Discussions become angrier over time...
g

23. Discussions reflect higher vulnerability over time...
g y

24. How Do Emotions Compare to Approval Rates?
p pp

25. Do Emotions Help Predict Approval Rates?
p pp

26. Do Emotions Help Predict Approval Rates?
p pp

27. Conclusions
• Emotions help predict public opinion
E o io e p p e i pu i opi io
(politics is as much about passions as about
reasons)
•A
Arousal is the most significant emotional
l i th t i ifi t ti l
dimension – does this also apply to other time
windows?

28. Future Research
• Combine these two approaches: Do emotions
o i e e e o app oa e o e o io
help explain the growth of discussion threads?
• Validate approach across platforms and
linguistic communities
li i ti iti