2. Joe Duffy’s Picks
• 20-7 football
• 3 college football Wise Guys, 5 Majors
OffshoreInsiders.com
3. Western Kentucky vs. Illinois
Total opened at 60, now 51. Weather fine, winds 10-15
Illinois edged Ball State 24-21
WKU won 31-17 to EKU
o Failed to pressure QB
WKU 0-6 SU to Big 10, last one in 2015 losing by three to Illinois
WKU QB Mike White threw for 4363 yards last year
WKU lost 1600 yard rusher Anthony Wells
WKU lost 46 percent of production
o Historically a regression, almost half the time by TD or more
o Averaged 44.7 points per game last three years
WKU new head coach in Mike Sanford, first road game
Illinois WR Mike Dudek back at WR after missing two years
Illinois freshman RB Mike Epstein rushed for 54 yards on 11 carries
Nebraska vs. Oregon
Oregon has had practice time disrupted because of hazardous air conditions
4. UL Monroe vs. Florida State
FSU starting QB Deondre Francois, who was a Heisman contender, is out for the year
True freshman James Blackman takes over
o He is considered a major dropoff
Fade teams off a loss in a game they covered by at least 16 point is 236-178 against the spread
o Would say go with Florida State
A bubble burst angle that says to fade highly ranked teams off a loss is 73-46
o Go with ULM
o But truthfully much better later in season (higher they go harder they fall)
Georgia vs. Notre Dame
Georgia starting QB Jacob Eason is out
Highly touted true freshman Jake Fromm makes first start at UND
o Many believe Fromm is the better QB as Eason’s freshmen year had mixed success at best
5. Oklahoma vs. Ohio State
Teams ranked 7th or better and road underdogs of more than 7 are just 6-10 against the spread
o Go with Ohio State
TCU vs. Arkansas
Arkansas opened as favorite but now TCU -3 and 59
Going with home teams off a win of 36 or more is 595-424
o 67-42 underdogs (48-61 SU)
Teams averaging more than 39.5 points per game total is less than 60, goes under 603-478
o Applies to both teams
TCU has not won on road against SEC since 1995
Arkansas RB Rawleigh Williams III who dominated TCU last year retired with neck injury
o New starter Devwah Whaley rushed for more than 600 yards
Arkansas two extra days rest but TCU had few starters play more than 20 snaps
o Such teams are only 185-191 against the spread at home
ARKANSAS +3
6. Florida Atlantic vs. Wisconsin (-31.5, 58)
Opened at Wisconsin -36
FAU is in Baco Raton, so possible distraction of Hurricane Irma
Line higher than 30, but total 58 or less actually sees favorite 194-159
o Over 213-140 at 60.3 percent
Home teams off a win of 36 or more are 595-424 for 58.4 percent
Also, FAU played against triple-option last week and spread offenses in C-USA, traditio
Wisconsin ran 45 times, passing just 23 last week
FAU gave up 416 on ground to Navy
When a team averages 39.5 or more and total is less than 60, goes UNDER 603-478
7. Spread 30 or higher, total 58 or less, favorite is 194-159 and over 213-140
ALABAMA over Fresno State
COLORADO over Texas State
FLORIDA STATE over UL Monroe
KANSAS STATE over Charlotte
MICHIGAN over Cincinnati
WISCONSIN over Florida Atlantic
Wake Forest vs. Boston College
BC starting center Jon Baker is out
o He’s made 27 straight starts, most on the team
o True freshman Alec Lindstrom takes over
Houston vs. Arizona
Arizona starting TB Nick Wilson is questionable
o 8 carries for 87 yards versus Northern Arizona