1. Plagues and People: Planning for Pandemics
. . F
āļ āļ
F F
2552 āļ
F F āļ āļ
. . F āļ
āļ Imperial College F āļ
āļ
F Plagues and People :
Planning for Pandemic
āļ F āļ āļ
āļ F
āļ āļ āļ āļ āļ āļ āļ
āļ āļ F F F F āļ
F F F āļ āļ
F FF F āļ Fāļ
F F āļ FF āļ
F āļ āļ
āļ F F 3 F āļF āļ establishment
F āļ F F āļ F exponential āļ
endemicity F F F F F
R ate of new infec tions
e x h a p ti b l e s
s s
s us c
x a u ib s
R andom effec ts
u s ti o
e
ep
ti n o
n f
E quilibrium,
t
G
f
)/T
or rec urrent
-1
0
(R
epidemic s
e
â
y
T ime
es tablis hment ex ponential endemic ity
g rowth
2. . . āļF F āļ āļ āļ F
F āļ F āļ āļ F
F āļ F F
āļ āļ F F F F āļ āļ
āļ F
F āļ F āļF āļ āļ Influenza virus
āļ F āļ āļ F
āļ F F F F āļF F āļ F F
āļ F āļ F F F āļ F
āļ āļ
Fāļ āļ āļ āļ āļ āļ FF F āļ F
āļ āļ Fāļ F F F āļ āļ āļ āļ
āļ Fāļ F F F F F
F F F āļ āļ āļ āļ āļ F Fāļ
F āļF āļ āļ F āļ F āļ Spanish flu 1918
F 40 F āļ āļ āļ F F F āļF āļ F
F āļF F F āļ F āļ āļF āļ (prophylaxis) āļ
āļ F F F F āļāļ āļ F
WHO āļ āļ āļF F
āļ F
1. Tetravalent influenza vaccines (seasonal plus e.g. H5N1)
2. Careful benefit-risk evaluation required
Influenza virus
3. Regional Flu-vaccine production
4. Decentralized stockpiles
5. Development of stable vaccine substance or vaccine product
A suitable and stable H5N1 vaccine produced once in large quantities
would keep its economical and public health value for at least ten years.
3. āļ āļ āļ āļ F āļ F āļ F
antiviral prophylaxis āļ āļ F āļ āļ F
Fāļ āļ āļ āļ āļāļ F
āļ āļ F F F āļ F āļ F FF
F āļ F āļ āļ
F āļ F F F āļ F F
āļ F F F āļ
āļ āļF F Fāļ āļ
āļ āļ āļ F F F āļ F F āļ
āļ āļ āļ F
F F F
āļ F/ āļ āļ F āļ
āļ F F
F 0 2644 8150-9 F 501 0 2644 8083 0 2564 7000 F 2609
0 2644 8100 0 2564 7008