The document summarizes perspectives on global energy trends from a US viewpoint, including: 1) Global energy consumption is projected to increase fourfold by 2100 to raise living standards in developing nations. 2) Climate change is occurring faster than expected, with precipitation changes projected to intensify over the 21st century. 3) Infrastructure vulnerabilities in the US energy sector are growing due to factors like increased weather-related power outages, cyber threats, and interdependencies revealed by events like Superstorm Sandy.

1. Melanie Kenderdine
US Department of Energy
UN Student Energy Summit
June 19, 2014
1
Energy Security, Natural Gas, Climate Change:
A US Perspective

2. 2
Challenge: Global Energy Consumption 2030
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, John Ziagos
680
quads/yr.

3. Annual per Capita Electricity Consumption
3
“The world will need to consume four times
as much energy by 2100 to raise the
standard of living in developing
nations to that of those in
developed nations.”

4. Without Policy With Policy
Analysis of Climate Policy Targets Under Uncertainty, Prinn, et al 2009 4
It’s later – and more serious -- than we think

5. Changes in Precipitation (%) in the 21st century
Source: IPCC, 2007 5

6. Life Cycle Water Consumption for Electricity
Production (gal H2O/MWh)
6

7. 7
894
543
456
347
286
72
54
45
37
19
15
10
7.5
2.4
Biodiesel/corn
Electricity/biomass
Ethanol/cellulose
Ethanol/corn
Ethanol/sugar cane
Wind
Hydropower
Petroleum
Solar Photovoltaic
Natural Gas
Solar Thermal
Coal
Geothermal
Nuclear
Land Use Intensity per Unit of Energy by
Energy Source (Km2/TW-hr/year)
McDonald, et al, Energy Sprawl or Energy Efficiency: Climate Policy Impacts on Natural Habitat for the United States of America, 2009
Funded by the Nature Conservancy

8. Sources: EIA, Richard Newell Presentation, 2010
Barnett Shale: 13,5000 Wells Drilled in 12 Years

9. Population Density &
European
Shale Development
Source: EIA, World Shale Resources , 2011
Poland Shale Basins
Marcellus/Pennsylvania
ei
Poland Population Density

10. 10
In the US, This is Where the “Money” Is!

11. G-7 Leaders: Energy Security at the Center of
Collective Agenda
The use of energy supplies as a means of political coercion or
as a threat to security is unacceptable.
The crisis in Ukraine makes plain that energy security must be
at the centre of our collective agenda…”
We will ask the IEA…to present by the end of 2014 options for
individual and collective actions of the G-7 in the field of gas security
We will…promote a more integrated Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
market, including through new supplies, the development of
transport …and further promotion of flexible gas markets…
11
Excerpt, THE BRUSSELS G-7 SUMMIT DECLARATION, June 5, 2014
Energy Security

12. G-7 Rome Initiative: Energy Security for the 21st
Century
Flexible, transparent and competitive energy markets,
including gas markets, should be developed.
Energy fuels, sources and routes should be diversified and development
of indigenous sources of energy supply should be encouraged.
Infrastructure modernization will improve energy system resilience.
Promoting supply and demand policies will help withstand systemic shocks
Reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and accelerating the
transition to a low carbon economy are key contributors to
enduring energy security.
Energy efficiency in demand and supply, and demand response
management should be enhanced.
Deployment of clean and sustainable energy technologies and continued
investment in research and innovation should be promoted.
12
Adapted from Joint Statement, Rome G7 Initiative for Energy Security, May, 2014
Market Development
Resilience
Diversification
Innovation
Competitiveness
Climate Change
Climate Change
Competitiveness
Climate Change
Competitiveness
Energy Equity

13. Source: Eurogas
c
89
83
80
60
60
59
59
57
56
37
29
24
24100
100
100
100
Gas Supplied by Russia
% of Total Consumption, 2012
Russian gas
Non-Russian gas 13
Energy Security
Diversification

14. Lowering Energy Intensity Can Enhance Energy
Security in Countries w/High Russian Imports
14
Source: IEA
Intensity: 2012, USD base, toe/thousand, intensity numbers are rounded
0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09
0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.3
0.4
0.8
Country % Gas Russian Imports Energy Intensity
Czech. Rep 57 .20
Estonia 100 .30
Hungary 80 .19
Lithuania 100 .17
Poland 59 .20
Slovakia 83 .18
Bulgaria 89 .40
Romania 24 .20
Ukraine 60 .80
OECD avg.
Competitiveness
Climate Change

15. US Potential Contribution to Global LNG Supplies*
15
Sources: IGU World LNG Report, 2014 , DOE Office of Fossil Energy
Qatar LNG
exports
US Volumes Europe LNG
imports
Worldwide
LNG
consumption
10.30 9.27
4.38
31.59
*Qatar and worldwide volumes are bcf/day in 2013. US volumes are for
approved or conditionally approved export permits as of 5/14
US conditionally-approved export
volumes are almost equal to those
of Qatar, the world’s largest LNG
exporter
Market Development

16. 52
44
63
7
38 36
66
28
17
33
51
4
23 22
48
18
LNG Regasification Utilization Rates by Country,
2012/2013 (% utilization)
2012 2013
Numbers in parenthesis are 2013 capacity in mmt/a (1mmt = 47.6 bcf)
2013: Disconnected
from crude prices
Because of large Asian/
European LNG price spreads,
LNG cargoes are moving to
Asia. Utilization rates of
European regasification
facilities have dramatically
declined.
Benchmark Natural Gas Prices: U.S., Europe, Asia,
2013, forecasts to 2030
$16.87
$16.72
$12.82
$5.49
2013
2030
16
39% decline62% decline
24% decline
19% decline
Brent: $16.87
Asian Term: $14.80
Eur. Spot: $10.59
Henry Hub: $3.61
2013: Tracking
Crude
Importance of Regional LNG Pricing to Global
Destinations of LNG Supplies
Shut down of nuclear
reactors post- Fukushima
has increased competition
for fossil fuels worldwide.
Market Development
Source: International Gas Union

17. A mild winter that reduced household heating demand
A decline in coal-fired electricity generation, due largely to
historically low natural gas prices
Reduced gasoline demand
17Source: EIA Website
US CO2 emissions lowest in 20 years
Coal to Gas Fuel Substitution Benefits, contd.
Climate Change

18. 18
PM on the Quadrennial Energy Review
“Affordable, clean, and secure energy and
energy services are essential for improving U.S.
economic productivity, enhancing our quality of
life, protecting our environment, and ensuring
our Nation's security.
Achieving these goals requires a comprehensive
and integrated energy strategy resulting from
interagency dialogue and active engagement of
external stakeholders.
To help the Federal Government better meet
this responsibility, I am directing the
undertaking of a Quadrennial Energy Review.”
President Barack Obama
January 9, 2014

19. Draft / Pre-Decisional / Not for Distribution 19
Near and Long-term Infrastructure
Vulnerabilities Are Growing
Climate Change: weather related power outages have increased from
5-20 each year in the mid-1990s to 50-100 per year in the last five years.
Cyber-security: 53% of all cyber-attacks from October 2012 to May
2013 were on energy installations.
Physical Threats: There were three highly visible attacks on grid
infrastructure in 2013. Supply chains for key components
of grid infrastructure are not robust.
Interdependencies: The interdependencies of the
electric and fuel infrastructures seen in Superstorm
Sandy greatly complicated the response and recovery.
Supply/demand Shifts: The lack of pipeline
infrastructures for associated gas in the Bakken has resulted in large-scale
flaring of this gas, in amount sufficient to be seen from space.

20. Recent Events Illustrate U.S. Energy Sector
Vulnerability to Climatic Conditions
Cooling water
intake or discharge
too hot: Shutdown
and reduced
generation from
power plants
Water restrictions due to
drought: Limiting shale
gas and power production
Wildfires: Damaged
transmission lines
Lower water levels:
Reduced hydropower
Lower river levels: Restricted
barge transportation of coal and
petroleum products
Intense storms: Disrupted
power generation,
distribution and oil and gas
operations
Flooding: Impacts on inland
power plants
20
Source: U.S. DOE (2013), U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather.

21. Supply/Infrastructure Geography Changing Rapidly
2010 Crude Oil by Train Loading
(red) and Offloading (blue)
Facilities
2013 Crude Oil by Train Loading
(red) and Offloading (blue)
Facilities
Source: Final SEIS, Keystone XL Project; Chapter 1.4, Market Analysis.

22. 22
Growth in Oil Transport by Rail