1. FOOD SECURITY
Concepts, Basic Facts,
and Measurement Issues
June 26 to July 7, 2011
Dhaka, Bangladesh

2. Talukder 5e:
Supporting Policies for FS with Monitoring,
Forecasting and Early Warning
R. K. Talukder
NFPCSP, FAO/MoFDM
Learning: Trainees will become familiar with the
conceptual aspects of monitoring, forecasting and early
warning; get acquainted with the tools and techniques of
early warning exercises, and will be able to understand the
integration mechanism of domestic early warning with
global early warning systems relating to food production,
supply and management.

3. Brief Contents
 Concepts of monitoring, forecasting and early earning
 Early warning system for food management
 Factors affecting crop production and availability
 Methods used to arrive at forecast of production and prices of
food crops
 Early warning system for natural disasters
 Rapid intervention and emergency management
 Review of early warning practices in Bangladesh
 Integration of domestic early warning with global early
warning system.

4. Concepts of Monitoring,
Forecasting and Early Warning (1)
Monitoring:
 Monitoring refers to systematic collection and analysis of
information during execution of a project or an activity.
 It is based on targets and activities set during the planning
phase of the project.
 It helps to keep the work on track, and can let the management
know if things are going wrong so that corrective measures
can be taken.
 Monitoring is performed for increasing efficiency and
effectiveness of a project.

5. Concepts of Monitoring,
Forecasting and Early Warning (2)
Forecasting:
 The term forecasting is generally used to indicate
the qualitative and quantitative information on
the future type and magnitude of an event (or a
variable).
 Forecasting is done with a stipulated lead time of
occurrence of an event.
 Forecasting differs from ‘prediction’ which
generally refers to very specific events based on
measurement, and implies a level of likelihood.

6. Concepts of Monitoring,
Forecasting and Early Warning (3)
Early Warning:
 Early warning can be conceptualized as the provision of timely and
effective information, through some identified institutions, that allows
individuals exposed to hazards to take action to avoid or reduce risk
and prepare for effective response.
 Early warning systems can help reduce economic losses and
mitigate the number of injuries or deaths from a disaster.
 Monitoring and prediction can be a part of early warning process. If
monitoring and prediction system is associated with communication
system and response plans, it can constitute an early warning
system.

7. Figure: Early warning system operational aspects
Communicating
Alerts
Monitoring
and Early
Prediction
Warning
System
Responding

8. Early Warning System for Food
Management
 Early warning system is an essential management tool for
safeguarding and improving food security.
 Its main objective is to give timely signals of impending
food shortages or surpluses.
 An effective early warning system provides sufficient lead
time between prognosis and actual occurrence of food
shortages or surpluses.
 It also enables the government to plan import/export and
maintain optimum stock and thereby minimize
storage, transportation and handling costs.
 An effective early warning system provides a precise degree
of food security at lowest possible cost to the nation.

9. Factors affecting Crop Production and
Availability
 Weather including precipitation and temperature ;
 Other natural factors such as Flood, Cyclone and Crop
Diseases;
 Status of Implementation of relevant Programmes.;
 Price behaviour of basic food staff;
 Quantities marketed - pace and pattern of arrivals;
 Stocks held by government, traders and farmers;
 Procurement, import and public distribution of food.

10. Methods used to arrive at Forecast of
Crop Production
 Monitoring crop conditions on the basis of agro-climatic
data;
 Crop development and conditions, area damaged and
other factors related to crop production;
 Making regular survey to assess area, yield and
production of crop;
 Estimating regression models describing the relationship
between selected weather parameters and final yield.

11. Early Warning System for Natural
Disasters (1)
Storm Warning Centre, BMD:
 Provides weather forecast on routine basis and issues
warnings for severe weather phenomena such as
storms, heavy rainfall, tropical cyclones and tornadoes;
 Receives round the clock satellite imageries for timely
use in operational meteorology;
 Provides 1 monthly and 3 monthly weather forecasts to
related stakeholders including the Ministry of Agriculture,
Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, BARC, DAE
and other related Departments.

12. Early Warning System for Natural
Disasters (2)
Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, BWDB:
 Provides daily monsoon bulletin and river
situation report;
 Provides river level forecasts for 24, 48 and 72
hours;
 Prepares and disseminates flood and inundation
status map up to Upazila levels;
 Prepares and disseminates flood maps through
GIS links and satellite imageries.

13. Early Warning System for Natural
Disasters (3)
Disaster Management Information Centre, DMB, MoFDM:
 Ensures e[ffective dissemination of appropriate warnings about flood,
cyclones and water surge through collaboration with BMD, BWDB,
Radio, TV and administrative personnel;
 Works as a facilitator for the preparation of local Disaster
Management Action Plans at Union, Upazila and district levels;
 Performs emergency information exchange and facilitates relief
management through the Emergency Operation Centre.

14. Rapid Intervention and Emergency
Management
 The Emergency Operations Centre of the MoFDM gets activated
with early information about occurrence of a disaster;
 The emergency relief management system makes use of the
services of the civil administration along with the services of the
Armed Forces and NGOs in the rescue operations during and after
disaster;
 The Directorate of Relief and Rehabilitation, in association with
other government and non-government agencies, operates relief
activities during emergency situation;
 The plan and practice of disaster management of the GOB involve
preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation as the key
strategies for building self-reliance of the communities in managing
disasters.

15. Review of Early Warning System in
Bangladesh (1)
Earlier Initiatives:
 A World Bank report in 1979 provided an outline of a proposed early
warning system.
 In 1982, a USAID mission commissioned a study for the
development of an early warning crop forecasting model.
 A mission from the FAO Food Security Assistance Unit visited
Bangladesh in 1982 to review the country's food security
programme.
 On the basis of the recommendation of the mission, a project
entitled "Development of Early Warning System in Bangladesh" was
formulated in 1983.
 The project was executed by the FAO from 1984 to 1988 with
financial assistance from the government of Japan.

16. Review of Early Warning System in
Bangladesh (2)
The New Project: Early Warning and Food
Information System (EWFIS):
In view of the vacuum situation prevailing in respect of early warning
practices, a new project entitled "Strengthening Early Warning and
Food Information System" was designed and undertaken by the
government.
The project started functioning from April1998 and was completed in
December 2002

17. Review of Early Warning System in
Bangladesh (2)
Works Accomplished under the EWFIS Project:
Production Trend Analysis
Price Analysis
Water Balance Index
Crop Yield-Weather Regression Analysis
Analysis on Nutritional Indicators
Preparation of Database for Early Warning Exercises
Training
Workshop and Seminar

18. Development of Integrated Early
Warning System
 The scheduled completion of the project led to setting up
of an Early Warning Cell (EWC) in the FPMU/MoFDM.
 This cell was entrusted with the technical jobs of
performing analytical exercises on early warning and
providing information and advice to the Early Warning
Technical Committee (EWTC) chaired by the DG, FPMU.
 The EWTC in turn would evaluate the information and
provide policy advice to the Food Planning and Monitoring
Committee (FPMC), the highest level interministerial body
responsible for formulation of food policy in the country.

19. Integration of Domestic Early Warning with
Global Early Warning System (1)
Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), FAO:
 The principal mandate of GIEWS is to keep the world food supply
/demand situation under continuous review, issue reports on the
world food situation and provide early warning of impending food
crises of individual countries.
 The important GIEWS tool is called the WinDisp which is a map,
image display and analysis software used for display and analysis
of satellite images, maps and related databases, with an emphasis
on early warning for food security for a country or a specific area.
 The important publications of GIEWS are Crop Prospect and Food
Situation (quarterly), Food Outlook (biannual) and Global Food Price
Monitor (monthly), CFSAM Reports (occasional).

20. Integration of Domestic Early Warning with
Global Early Warning System (2)
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), USAID :
 This network deals with food security monitoring, assessment.
analysis and early warning. It monitors trends in staple food prices in
countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The price monitoring
information of key markets and commodities are made available
through the Price Watch Annex.

21. Integration of Domestic Early Warning with
Global Early Warning System (3)
GIEWS Workstation Information Management System:
 The GIEWS Workstation provides a decentralized, web-based,
geo-referenced information management system that facilitates
collection and sharing of standardized food security related
information;
 The Workstation includes software functions such as GIS mapping,
tables and charts that enables users to perform cross-analysis of
multidisciplinary data and determine the food security implications
of economic, social and environmental factors;
 All Workstations installed at key institutions in different countries
form a Network across which information can be shared directly;
 The FPMU/MoFDM is at an advanced stage of building a
Workstation, to be integrated with the Global Workstation
Network.