Excess capacity

1. Statistical Publications
Shipping Statistics
and Market Review
Volume 55 No 4 - 2011
Market Review
Analytical Focus
World Merchant Fleet
World Tanker Market
World Bulk Carrier Market
World Container and General Cargo Shipping
World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns
World Passenger and Cruise Shipping/
ISL Cruise Fleet Register
World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders
Major Shipping Nations
World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffic
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3. Volume 55 (2011) No 4 - 2011
ISSN 0947 - 0220
published 9 times per year
(double issues Jan./Feb., May/ June.
and Sept./ Oct )
.
Shipping Statistics
and Market Review
Analytical Focus
World Bulk Carrier Market
ISL Comment ........................................................... 5
ISL InfoLine Special ................................................. 15
ISL Statistical Tables ................................................ 19
Market Review
Economic Indicators ................................................. 45
World Merchant Fleet .................................................. 48
Freight and Charter Market ....................................... 51
Shipping Prices and Costs ......................................... 63
World Shipbuilding ................................................... 64
World Port Traffic ..................................................... 66
Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics

4. Abbreviations/Symbols www.isl.org
Abbreviations n.a. Not available
NDRF National Defence Reserve Fleet
ARA Antwerp/Rotterdam/Amsterdam range
n.e.c. Not elsewhere classified
AWES Association of West European Shipbuilders
neg. Negligible
b/d Barrels per day
NIS Norwegian International Ship Register
BHP Brake horsepower
no Number
cgt Compensated gross tonnage
NODC Non-oil Producing Developing Countries
cif Cost, insurance, freight
nrt Net register tonnage
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
nt Net tonnage
COD Country of Domicile
NWE,NW Northwest Europe
CPE Centrally-planned Economies
o.a. Over all
CPI Consumer price index
OBO Ore/bulk/oil carrier
cST Centi Stokes
OECD Organization for Economic
cu.m Cubic metres (also m3) Cooperation and Development
DB Double bottom O/O Ore/oil carrier
DC Developing Countries OPEC Organization of Petroleum
DH Double hull Exporting Countries
DIS Danish International Ship Register OR Ordinary Register
DME Developed market economies P/C Products carrier
DS Double sides Pr/OBO Product/ore-bulk-oil carrier
dwt Deadweight tons r Revised
d/y Day/year Ro/ro Roll-on/roll-off
ECB European Central Bank RT Revenue ton
EMEs Emerging Market Economies SAR Special administration region
EU European Union SBT Ship segregated ballast tanks
FY Fiscal year SDR Special drawing rights
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization SSMR ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review
of the United Nations ST Short ton
fio Free in and out t Ton/tonne
fob Free on board TB Tug/barge
FT Freight tons TEU Twenty feet equivalent unit
ft Foot TKB Tanker barge
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade T/S Tanker/steam
gt Gross tonnage T/T Tanker/turbine
HP Horsepower ULCC Ultra large crude carrier
HT Harbour ton USAC United States Atlantic Coast
ibf Intermediate bunker fuel USD US Dollar
IEA International Energy Agency VLCC Very large crude carrier
IMF International Monetary Fund WS Worldscale
IMO International Maritime Organization WTO World Trade Organization
in. Inch YR, YRS Year, Years
ITF International Transport Workers Federation
km Kilometre
loa Length overall
Symbols
lbs Pounds
... Data not available
LDT Light displacement tons
- Nil
LDC Less Developed Countries
0/0.0 Less than half of unit employed
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
1995-2004 From 1995 to 2004 inclusive
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
2002/03 Crop year, fiscal year etc., beginning
LR/Fairplay Lloyd’s Register - Fairplay
in 2002 and terminating in 2003
LT Long ton
m Metre
Billions means a thousand million
mbd Million barrel per day
Detailed items in tables do not necessarily add to totals
mdo Marine diesel oil because of rounding
MED Mediterranean
MfA Marine fishing area
mill Million
M/T Motor tanker
MT Metric tons
mtd per ton fob delivered
mth Month
For further explanation (e.g. Glossary)
mtw Per ton ex wharf
please visit: www.isl.org/infoline
2 SSMR April 2011

5. Contents – Comment and Statistical Tables www.isl.org
Page
ISL Comment – World Bulk Carrier Market 5-14
(1) WORLD BULK CARRIER FLEET
1.1 Bulk Carrier Fleet Development ............................................................................... 5
1.2 Age Profile of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ................................................................. 5
1.3 Size Dimensions of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ......................................................... 6
1.4 Ownership Patterns of the World Bulk Carrier Fleet ..................................................... 7
(2) FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BULK CARRIER MARKET
2.1 Major Dry Bulk Commodities – Production, Consumption and Trade Patterns .................. 8
2.2 Global Insight – Major Bulk Commodities Outlook Until 2013 ........................................ 9
2.3 Seaborne Bulk Trade Development .......................................................................... 10
2.4 Dry Bulk Port Traffic – Regional Highlights 2011 ......................................................... 10
2.5 Dry Bulk Market – Freight Rates and Prices ............................................................... 12
(3) FUTURE BULK CARRIER TONNAGE SUPPLY
3 Future Bulk Carrier Tonnage Supply ......................................................................... 13
(4) THE SHIPBUILDING MARKET FOR BULK CARRIERS
4.1 New Orders and Order Book Development ................................................................. 14
4.2 Leading Shipbuilding Countries ................................................................................ 15
SUMMARY TABLES - COMMENT
Tab. 1 World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type 2007 and 2011 ........................................................ 5
Tab. 2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Tonnage Reductions by Type 2005 – 2010 ............................ 5
Tab. 3 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Additions (Newbuildings) by Type 2007-2010 ........................ 6
Tab. 4 World Bulk Carrier Fleet and Order Book by Size 2011 ................................................ 6
Tab. 5 Largest Bulk Carriers by Type 2011 ......................................................................... 6
Tab. 6 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Top Registered Flags 2007 and 2011 .................................... 7
Tab. 7 World Bulk Carrier Tonnage Registered for Panama and Hong Kong According to Countries of
Domicile 2007, 2010 and 2011 ................................................................................ 7
Tab. 8 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Controlled Tonnage of Major Shipping Nations 2007-2011 ....... 8
Tab. 9 World Seaborne Foreign Trade by Major Bulk Commodities and Regions 2003 – 2008
and Outlook 2013 .................................................................................................. 10
Tab. 10 World Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade by Major Commodities 2009 and
Average Growth Rates 1993-2009 ............................................................................ 10
Tab. 11 Dry Bulk Traffic of Major Ports by Exporting and Importing Areas 2000-2010 .................. 11
Tab. 12 Total Coal and Iron Ore Trade in the World’s Largest Dry Bulk Ports by Port
Regions 2005-2010 .................................................................................................. 12
Tab. 13 Coal and Iron Ore Imports of Major European Ports 2005-2010 .................................... 12
Tab. 14 Rate Level for Benchmark Bulk Carrier Trades 12/2008-12/2010 and 04/2011 ............... 13
Tab. 15 Demolition and Contracting Prices of Capesize Bulk Carriers 1999 - 2010 ....................... 13
Tab. 16 World Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type 2007 – 2011 ................................................... 14
Tab. 17 World Bulk Carrier Order Book by Major Countries of Build 2007 and 2011 ..................... 15
Tab. 18 Bulk Carrier Order Book - Delivery Schedule by Major Countries of Build 2010 ................ 15
FIGURES - COMMENT
Fig. 1 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Annual Tonnage Changes 1992- 2011 .................................. 5
Fig. 2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Tonnage Additions and Reductions 1995 – 2010 .................... 5
Fig. 3 World Bulk Carrier Fleet – Size Development 1992 – 2011 ........................................... 6
Fig. 4 Bulk Carrier Fleet - Tonnage Development of Major Shipping Nations 2007-2011 ............ 8
Fig. 5 World Steel Production by Area 1997-2010 ................................................................ 8
Fig. 6 Overview on Major Commodity Markets 2000-2009 .................................................... 9
Fig. 7 World Seaborne Trade of Major Dry Bulk Commodities 1980 – 2010 .............................. 10
Fig. 8 World Seaborne Trade of Iron Ore and Coal by Major Regions/Countries 2003-2009 ........ 11
Fig. 9 Total Coal and Iron Ore Trade in the World’s largest Dry Bulk Ports
by Port Regions 2005-2010 ..................................................................................... 12
Fig. 10 Development of Dry Bulk Voyage Rates on the Tubarao to China Trade
January 2003 – March 2011 .................................................................................... 13
Fig. 11 Monthly Development of Bulk Indices 2003-2011 ....................................................... 13
Fig. 12 World Bulk Carrier Fleet - Share of the Ordered Tonnage on the Existing Fleet 1999-2011 14
Fig. 13 Bulk Carrier Fleet - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage, Quarterly 2002 – 2011 ............ 14
Fig. 14 World Bulk Carrier Order Book, Quarterly 2003 – 2011 ............................................... 14
15-18
ISL InfoLine Special – World Bulk Carrier Market
SSMR April 2011 3

6. ISL Statistical Tables– World Bulk Carrier Market 19-42
(1) TOTAL BULK CARRIER FLEET
1.1 Key Figures on World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type and Size Class 2011 ............................ 19
1.2 World Bulk Carrier Fleet Development by Type 2007 - 2011 ......................................... 20
1.3 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Ownership Patterns ..................................................... 21
1.3.1 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Major Flags 2010 and 2011 ................................................ 21
1.3.2 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Country of Domicile 2011 ................................................... 22
1.3.3 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Registered Flag and Country of Domicile
According to Country Groups and Type 2007 and 2011 ................................................ 23
1.3.4 Total Bulk Carrier Fleet by Registered Flag and Country of Domicile
According to Regions and Type 2007 and 2011 .......................................................... 24
1.3.5 Total Bulk Carriers by Country Groups and Division of Age 2011 ................................... 25
1.3.6 Total Bulk Carriers Additions to Fleet by Top Countries of Domicile During 2007 - 2010 .... 25
1.3.7 Total Bulk Carriers by Size Class and Division of Age and Deliveries up to 2011 .............. 26
1.3.8 Total Bulk Carriers Fleet - Size Dimensions 2011 ........................................................ 26
1.4 Broken-up Bulk Carriers ........................................................................................ 27
1.4.1 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Type January 1999 - December 2010 ................................. 27
1.4.2 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Major Flags 1999 - 2010 ................................................... 27
1.4.3 Broken-up Bulk Carriers by Size Class 1999 - 2010 ..................................................... 27
(2) BULK MARKET -
SHIPPING COSTS AND PRICES
2.1 Second Hand Prices of Bulk Carriers, Average Values 2000 - 2010 ................................ 28
2.2 Contracting Prices for Newbuildings 2000 - 2010 ........................................................ 28
2.3 Demolition prices 2000 - 2010 ................................................................................. 28
(3) BULK MARKET -
COMMODITIES, SEABORNE TRADE, PORTS
COMMODITIES
3.1 Coal Production and Consumption ......................................................................... 29
3.1.1 World Coal Production by Country 2000 - 2009 .......................................................... 29
3.1.2 World Coal Consumption by Country 2000- 2009 ........................................................ 30
3.2 World Iron and Steel Production ........................................................................... 31
3.2.1 World Pig Iron Production by Selected Countries 1990, 2004 - 2009 .............................. 31
3.2.2 World Crude Steel Production by Country 2000 - 2009 ................................................ 32
3.3 World Total Grain Production and Trade ............................................................... 33
3.3.1 Production of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002 - 2009 ............................... 34
3.3.2 Import of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002/2004-2006/2009 and
Forecast for 2009/2010 .......................................................................................... 34
3.3.3 Export of Grain by Region and Selected Countries 2002/2004-2006/2009 and
Forecast for 2009/2010 .......................................................................................... 34
SEABORNE TRADE
3.4 Seaborne Coal Trade ............................................................................................. 35
3.5 Seaborne Iron Ore Trade ....................................................................................... 35
3.6 Seaborne Grain Trade ............................................................................................ 35
PORTS
3.7 World Dry Bulk Ports ............................................................................................. 36
3.7.1 Selected Major World Coal Ports - Traffic 2005 - 2010 ................................................. 36
3.7.2 Selected Major World Iron Ore Ports - Traffic 2005 - 2010 ........................................... 37
(4) FUTURE
BULK CARRIER TONNAGE SUPPLY- WORLD BULK CARRIER ORDER BOOK
4.1 Existing World Bulk Carrier Fleet by Type and Major Areas of Build 2011 ........................ 38
4.2 Bulk Carrier Order Book and New Orders by Type 2006 – 2011 .................................... 39
4.3 Order Book by Major Countries of Build and Type 2011 ............................................... 39
4.4 Bulk Carriers on Order by Type and Delivery Schedule 2011 ....................................... 40
4.5 Bulk Carriers on Order by Countries of Build and Delivery Schedule 2011 ....................... 40
4.6 Bulk Carriers on Order by Ship Yard and Delivery Schedule 2011 .................................. 40
4.7 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and
Major Countries of Build 2005 - 2010 ....................................................................... 41
4.8 Additions to the Bulk Carrier Order Book by Type and
Major Countries of Domicile 2005 - 2010 ................................................................... 42
4 SSMR April 2011

7. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org
This “short comment” is an excerpt from the “Analytical Comment” published in the
ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 4 2011.
The SSMR includes detailed statistical information concerning the “analytical focus”
and provides approx. 30 monthly/quarterly market indicators (Market Review).
For more information compare attached “contents”
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covering all details (tables & figures), please
contact our subscription department
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All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any
means, electronic, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without
prior permission of the editors.
ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information
contained in "ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)"
(this is also true for the “Short Comment”) nor does it accept
responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences.
SSMR April 2011 1

8. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org
Fig. 1: World bulk carrier fleet – annual tonnage changes as of January
1 WORLD BULK CARRIER FLEET 2010/2011 1st, 1992-2011 (dwt- per cent)
17.0
18.0
The year 2010 turned out to be rather disappointing for 16.0
bulk carrier operators. While rate levels increased during 14.0
the course of 2009 to reach reasonable levels towards the 12.0
10.0 8.9
end of the year, the increase of capacity in 2010 was too 8.0 5.8
7.1 6.4 6.3 7.2
strong to be covered by demand growth, leading to 4.7 4.7
6.0
3.1 3.4 3.7
decline of rates. 4.0 1.7 2.4 2.0 1.6
2.0 0.4 0.0
In early 2011, we see a huge oversupply of vessels in the 0.0
bulk carrier segment. The future supply/demand balance -2.0
-1.3 -1.6
in the bulk market is determined by a surprisingly high 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
contracting of newbuildings and a moderate volume of
broken up tonnage. Tab. 1: World bulk carrier fleet by type as of January 1st, 2007 and
2011
In 2010, at least 93 million dwt were reported as new 2007 2011 Av. growth Average size
bulker orders. At the same time a total of 79 million dwt mill mill rate '07-'11 (1000 dwt)
were delivered equal to a fleet increase of “historical” 17 Ship type No dwt No dwt No dwt 2007 2011
per cent, while only 148 bulk carriers with 6.4 million dwt Bulk carriers 5758 345.1 7317 474.5 6.2 8.3 59.9 64.9
Other bulk carrier 1023 12.5 1264 49.5 5.4 41.1 12.2 39.2
were reported as demolitions. OBO carriers 106 6.1 71 4.1 -9.5 -9.3 57.3 58.1
Part of the high ordering activity in 2010 most likely goes Total 6887 364 8652 528 5.9 9.8 52.8 61.0
back to orders that had been cancelled after the crisis.
These cancellations amounted to 70 million dwt. At the
Tab. 2: World bulk carrier fleet – tonnage reductions by type 2006-
beginning of 2011, the resulting bulk carrier order book 2010
reached 253 million dwt and represents about 48 per cent
of the fleet. Most of these vessels are due for delivery in 2006 2009 2010 dwt-%
Ship type No mill dwt-% No of mill dwt-% No mill dwt-% change
the next two years.
dwt share ships dwt share dwt share '09/'10
The current overcapacity and the strong fleet growth that Bulk carriers 54 2.5 87.1 254 10.2 86.6 133 6.2 95.9 -39.6
can be expected during the next years make it highly Other bulk
carriers 10 0.4 12.9 35 1.5 12.7 15 0.3 4.1 -82.6
unlikely that rates will recover quickly.
Total 64 2.8 100.0 286 11.8 100.0 148 6.4 100.0 -45.5
1.1 Bulk carrier fleet development
Tab. 3: World bulk carrier fleet – additions (newbuildings) by type 2006-
With an increase of 17 per cent in 2010, the total bulk 2010
carrier fleet showed the highest growth ever. At the end of
2010, the total bulk carrier fleet was composed of 8,652 2006 2009 2010 dwt-%
Ship type No mill No mill No mill dwt change
vessels with a capacity of 528 million dwt. dwt dwt dwt %- '09/'10
At the beginning of 2011, the following “Special types”, Bulk carriers 306 24.5 531 42.3 937 72.9 92.6 72.1
Other bulk
namely sub-types specified by IHS Fairplay, can be carriers 9 0.2 37 1.1 50 5.8 7.4 427.3
distinguished: Total 315 24.7 568 43.2 987 78.7 100.0 82.3
There have been massive deliveries in 2010. Compared
with 2009 figures, the total world bulk fleet increased by Fig. 2: World bulk carrier fleet – size development as of January 1st,
about 77 million dwt to 528 million dwt. Thus, the bulk 1990-2009 (average dwt)
carrier fleet continued its extraordinary growth path since 65000
2004. 60000
Fleet development trends can be summarised as follows:
av. dwt size
55000
Deliveries of new bulk tonnage amounted to 50000
historical 78.7 million dwt during 2010, the biggest
delivery year ever. For comparison: The average 45000
volume of deliveries in the last decade amounted to 40000
21 million dwt per year. 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
The average ship size of the new deliveries in 2010
was about 80,000 dwt. Sources:
If not otherwise mentioned, the source for tables and figures concerning the
Over the last 12 months, the capesize fleet (over world merchant fleet and order book information is “ISL based on IHS
Fairplay”, please quote accordingly. In general merchant fleet data refer to
80,000 dwt) has increased by at least 26 per cent in ships of 300 gt and over.
dwt, whereas the Panamax fleet (60-80,000 dwt) Explanatory notes:
increased by only 4.1 per cent and the Handy Bulker The “total bulk carrier fleet” includes Bulk carriers and Ore/Bulk/Oil carriers
(OBOs). Bulk carriers: include – Bulk carriers, ore carriers and other bulk
fleet (10-40,000 dwt) by 6.4 per cent. carriers like: Aggregates carriers, Cement carriers, Wood chip carriers, Urea
carriers, Limestone carriers Alumina carriers, Refined sugar carriers,
During 2010, a further five million dwt of oil tanker Powder carriers. OBO carriers include Bulk/oil carriers and Ore/oil carriers.
tonnage were converted to bulk carriers. Fig. 3: Bulk carrier fleet – tonnage development of major shipping
SSMR April 2011 5

9. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org
nations (controlled tonnage) as of January 1st, 2007-2011 (dwt
148 bulk carriers with 6.4 million dwt were sold to – yearly average growth rate)
breakers, compared to 286 vessels with 11.8 million
dwt a year earlier. This is only 1.4 per cent of the 125.0
fleet.
100.0
Between 2007 and 2011, the bulk carrier fleet
expanded on average by 9.8 per cent per year in Japan
75.0
mill dwt 2011
terms of deadweight tonnage and the number of Greece China, PR of
carriers by 5.9 per cent. 50.0
Korea, Rep. of
During the period 2006-2010 2,540 bulk carriers
with 194 million dwt were added to the trading fleet. 25.0
In the same period, only 609 bulk carriers with 25 Germany
million dwt were reported to be broken-up. 0.0
0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5 20.0
average annual dwt growth 2007- 2011 in %
1.2 Size dimensions of the world bulk carrier fleet Ships of 1,000 gt and over
The average size of bulk carriers increased from 43,500
Fig. 4: World steel production by area 1994-2011 (a)
dwt in 1990 to 61,000 dwt at the beginning of 2011.
Looking at the new deliveries, there is a trend to larger 1400 Others CIS
units, at least 464 Capesize carriers entering the fleet in the 1200 North America EU-15
past five years were attributable to size classes above
1000 Asia
150,000 dwt. Altogether, the world bulk carrier fleet
comprised 1,023 of these very large units. mill tonnes 800
During the next years, the increasing importance of larger 600
size classes will continue. The average size of bulk carriers 400
on order is over 86,000 dwt. The ordered tonnage
200
concentrates on bulk carriers in the Capesize segment
above 80,000 dwt, thereof 518 vessels with a capacity of 0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
150,000 dwt and above.
ISL, based on International Iron and Steel Institute; (a): 2011 estimated
2 FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BULK CARRIER MARKET Fig. 5: Overview on major commodity markets 1996-2009 (Tonne-
2010/2011 based Index 1996 = 100)
220 220
2.1 Major dry bulk commodities – production, coal consumption coal production
200
consumption and trade patterns 200
China
China
The strong and steady growth of bulk tonnage, as well as 180
1.6 OECD 180 OECD
economic uncertainty in several industrialized countries 160 World World
160
like EU, US and Japan, are expected to keep dry bulk
shipping rates depressed. The supply growth in available 140 140
capacity exceeds the demand growth for raw materials by
120 120
far. However, due to changing regional patterns of
production and consumption of raw materials, seaborne 100 100
trade may increase more strongly. In addition, transport
80
distances for major bulk commodities such as ore and coal 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
80
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
are increasing. 1200
420
iron ore imports
World crude steel production jumped 15.2 per cent from iron ore production
2009 to 2010. Most recent statistics of the International 1000 370
China China
Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) indicate that China had a 320 Australia
800 OECD
share of 44.5 per cent of the 1.4 billion tonnes world steel Brazil
World
production. China’s average yearly production growth in 270
600 World
the period 2001-2010 was 17 per cent. Compared with
220
this development, the year on year change in 2010 reached 400
a rather moderate 9.3 per cent, but one has to keep in 170
mind that China was the only main steel producer that had 200
120
increased production in 2009. The EU countries showed a
steel production growth of around 20 per cent across the 0
70
board, but they are still short of their 2008 production 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
volumes. ISL, based on WTO, World Trade Statistics 2010
Tab. 4: Dry bulk traffic of major ports by exporting and importing
6 SSMR April 2011

10. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org
areas (port regions) 1999-2009 (mill tonnes, per cent)
According to preliminary statistics of the Australian
Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, world No average an.
of growth in % % share of total
iron ore trade in 2010 exceeded 1.1 billion tons, of which Port regions (a) Ports 99-04 04-09 1999 2009
the lion’s share went to China. The People’s Republic Exporting areas 53 6.0 5.4 100.0 100.0
imported 692 million tons of ore, an increase of 8.6 per Oceania 16 5.8 6.9 52.5 55.6
South America 23 8.5 4.3 29.7 31.6
cent compared to the 637 million which were supplied in
Africa 14 2.0 2.5 17.8 12.8
2009. At the same time, China is one of the largest iron Importing Areas 80 2.6 -0.4 100.0 100.0
ore producing countries in the world. North Range/UK 30 1.8 -3.9 29.8 23.8
Far East 13 3.6 -0.3 31.4 32.8
On the export side, the top four exporting countries, US 15 -0.8 0.1 26.1 22.6
namely Australia, Brazil, India and South Africa, exported South East Asia 22 8.2 4.2 12.8 20.8
a combined 830 million tons of iron ore exports in 2010, (a) South East Asia: India, Pakistan, Thailand, Singapore,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines; North Range: 10 major North
equal to a market share of 80 per cent. Range ports (Europe)
ISL Port Data Base 2011
2.2 Trade in major bulk commodities 2009/2010
and short term outlook Fig. 6: Quarterly iron ore and coal traffic of major exporting ports
by regions 2009-2011 (1st quarter)
World seaborne iron ore trade nearly doubled during the
past ten years, reaching 1.07 billion tonnes in 2009. 40.0 Iron ore
growth over same quarter prev. year
Almost three quarters of this growth (manifested in an 30.0
average growth of 25 per cent per annum) were 20.0
attributable to Chinese imports. Although nearby 10.0
Australia is the most important exporter for China, South 0.0
American iron ore was also used to cover demand in the
-10.0
Far East, leading to rising long haul transports of raw Australia Brazil
-20.0
materials.
-30.0
2.3 Dry bulk port traffic – regional highlights
2009/2010
40.0
growth over same quarter prev. year
The development of seaborne trade in major bulk Coal
30.0
commodities is mirrored in the development of the major 20.0
Australia South Africa
exporting and importing ports. 10.0
Between 2009 and 2010, the world’s largest ports’ dry bulk 0.0
traffic recovered and grew overproportionally. Due to -10.0
strong Chinese demand for iron ore and, more recently, -20.0
-30.0
for coal, Australian and Brazilian ports of loading were
increasingly busy and show, if there were no problems
caused by administrative barriers or technical problems, ISL Port Data Base 2011; Brazil: total exports, based on Ministry of
consistently double digit growth rates (compare Table 10). Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
Leading exporting bulk ports
The world’s largest dry bulk port, the port of
Qinhuangdao, handled 224 million tonnes of coal in 2010,
up 8.6 per cent from 2009. While demand development Tonnage additions/reductions:
was mixed in the Asian OECD countries, China’s coal Additions (newbuildings) entering the fleet refer to the fleet data of the
following year. Reductions (broken-up) tonnage refer to the fleet data of the
consumption actually increased as described above. respective year.
The Australian ports of Newcastle, Hay Point and Explanatory note – Bulk carrier dwt-size grouping
Gladstone together loaded 263 million tonnes of coal in Handysize: 10,000 - 39,999 dwt
the fiscal year ending June 2010, approximately 29 million Handymax: 40,000 - 49,999 dwt
Supramax: 50,000 –59,999 dwt
tons more than in 2009, equal to a growth of 12.2 per Panamax: 60,000 - 79,999 dwt
cent. Capesize: >= 80,000 dwt
The recovery of the US and Canadian heavy industries Explanatory note
helped some of the bulk ports located at the Great Lakes Major Open Registries
and the Saint Lawrence Seaway reach a better utilisation. Countries permitting the registration of ships owned by non-residents. In
general, ISL figures on open registry flags are restricted to the top ten major
Sept Iles, for example, shipped 23 million tons of coal in flags: Panama, Liberia, Bahamas, Malta, Marshall Islands, Cyprus, St.
2010, a quarter more than during 2009. Vincent, Antigua & Barbuda, Bermuda and Cayman Islands. (01.01.2008).
The Chinese demand for raw materials also helped Fig. 7: Development of dry bulk voyage rates on the Tubarao to
Rotterdam trade January 2005 to March 2011
Australian iron ore ports to consolidate their market
SSMR April 2011 7

11. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org
position. In the fiscal year 2009/2010, combined iron ore 110
100
shipments in Port Hedland and Dampier grew by 16.5 per
90
cent to 315 million tons. Interestingly, the three top 80
Brazilian iron ore ports grew at the same pace up to the 70
US$/Tonne
same traffic volume. Their growth ranged between 31.2 60
per cent for Tubarao (118 million tons in 2010) and 6.3 50
40
per cent for Sepetiba (88 million tons). Together with the
30
port of Itaqui (another 110 million tons) they serve 20
especially the European market. 10
Traffic rebound 2009/2010 0
01.05 01.06 01.07 01.08 01.09 01.10 01.11
The quarterly development of bulk traffic of major ISL based on Fearnleys
exporting ports reveals the impact of China’s increased
demand in 2010. Iron ore exports of the three major Fig. 8: Monthly development of bulk indices 2005-2011
Australian ports actually increased by 7.3 per cent in the 18000
Baltic Dry Index
calendar year 2010. The record volume of 86.9 million 16000
tonnes loaded during the last quarter of 2010 was even 8.8 14000
Baltic Panmax Index
per cent above the respective volume of 2009. Baltic Capesize Index
12000
The top Brazilian ports outperformed these results and 10000
climbed 27.5 per cent during the four quarters in 2010. In 8000
total, Tubarao, Sepetiba and Itaqui shipped 327 million
6000
tons in 2010.
4000
Coal shipments showed a similar development, though on
2000
a lower level. During 2010, China’s increasing imports of
0
coal enabled Australian ports to let their coal shipments
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
rise by 8.8 per cent, while South Africa’s port of Richards
Bay saw an increase in demand of 28 per cent (see Figure ISL based on Baltic Exchange
7).
2.4 Dry bulk market – freight rates and prices
Time charter rates
SSMR Guide to relevant market information:
Oversupply issues have plagued the dry bulk market since Fearnleys: www.fearnleys.com
Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: www.platou.com
mid-2010. In 2009, these oversupplies were to a large Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information:
extent cushioned by cancelled orders, China’s healthy www.brs-paris.com
ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook 2010
growth and rising demand for foreign coal, and a high Esso – Oeldorado: www.esso.ch
number of demolitions. Since last year’s autumn, a huge BP – Statistical Review of World Energy http://www.bp.com
EIA Energy Information Administration: www.eia.doe.gov
number of pre-crisis orders came into service and still will International Grains Council: www.igc.org.uk
hit the waters in the next two years to come, as it normally
IHS Global Insight: World Trade Service
takes three years for a ship to be delivered after ordering. IHS Global Insight's World Trade Service provides clients with the most
These deliveries put pressure on the market and keep dry comprehensive view of international trading markets and commodities.
bulk shipping rates from recuperating. Forecasts are updated on a quarterly schedule and are delivered
electronically via the Internet.
Even though the seaborne sector sees a pick-up in global Exports by Country/Region with Trade Partner Regions/Countries
Imports by Country/Region from Trade Partner Regions/Countries
demand for coal and iron ore, the enormous rise in Real Value of Trade and Nominal Value of Trade
available vessels led to decreasing rate levels. More History for Total Value Data: since 1980.
History for Value by Volume: since 1995.
recently, shipping rates have oscillated around rather low
levels. ISL Port Data Base
Demolition, second hand and contracting prices The ISL Port Data Base contains structured, comparable data from 1980
onwards for approximately 400 leading world ports. This unique data
The bulk sector recently had to absorb the highest amount base is made possible by our network of port partners throughout the
world providing the broad information for our annual ISL Port Data Base
of new ships ever. Moreover, ships totalling 253 million Survey. Since 2005, ports can provide their data via our online
dwt are on order, including 31 bulkers for Vale carrying questionnaire.
400,000 dwt each coming afloat in 2013 to serve China. Cargo traffic and commodities (154 items)
Total cargo traffic
Demolition prices during the last year react counter- Loading categories
Major bulk commodities
cyclically. Normally relatively low scrapping prices should Cargo traffic by continents
be due, but because of increasing steel prices and the Container traffic by continent (55 items)
Pakistani scrapping yards back in service after closing due TEU (laden/empty)
Containerised cargo (tons)
to new environmental laws, scrapping prices were around Degree of containerisation
8 SSMR April 2011

12. Comment - World bulk carrier fleet www.isl.org
25 per cent higher than one year before. Broken-up bulk Fig. 9: World bulk carrier fleet - share of ordered tonnage (dwt) on
carrier tonnage reached a volume of only 6.4 million dwt existing fleet as of January 1st, 2001-2011
in 2010, but analysts expect a gigantic 22 million dwt to be 80
scrapped this year in prospect of rates still at the bottom. 70
orderbook dwt % of fleet
60
50
3 THE SHIPBUILDING MARKET FOR BULK
40
CARRIERS/FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY
30
20
3.1 New orders and order book development 10
In 2010, ordering activity was surprisingly strong in the 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
bulk carrier segment, knowing that the order volume was
already at a high level. After the rapid decline in
shipbuilding orders in 2009 with only 47 million dwt at Fig. 10: World bulk carrier fleet - new orders and broken-up
least 93 million dwt were reported as new orders in 2010 tonnage, quarterly 2004- 2010 (mill dwt)
(incl. late news from previous years). Though some of
these reported orders may actually be contracts that had 60.0
Broken-up
previously been cancelled or resold, the high number of 50.0 New orders
‘fresh orders’ exceeds experts’ expectations by far. 40.0
In early 2011, the order book for bulk carriers comprised 30.0
mill dwt
2,944 carriers with 57 million cgt (253 million dwt). The 20.0
dwt-share of the ordered tonnage in the existing bulk 10.0
carrier fleet stood at 48 per cent. These figures indicate 0.0
huge overcapacities in the coming years. Around 33 10.0
million cgt (144 million dwt) of new bulk carrier tonnage 04/I 04/III 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III 10/I 10/III
is due for delivery in 2011, which represents more than
half of the ordered tonnage. Provided that these ships will Fig. 11: World bulk carrier order book, quarterly 2004- 2011
be delivered as scheduled, the new deliveries will lead to a (mill cgt)
fleet increase of about 20 per cent until the end of 2011. 70
However, it is expected that some of the orders will be 60
stretched, and there may still be further cancellations. 50
40
mill cgt
3.2 Leading shipbuilding countries
30
At the beginning of 2011, 99.2 per cent of the total bulk
20
carrier tonnage on order was attributable to yards in Asia
(China, Japan, South Korea). The Asian dominance is not 10
only reflected in the order book at the beginning of 2011, 0
but also in the existing world bulk carrier fleet. Only 6.4 04/I 05/I 06/I 07/I 08/I 09/I 10/I 11/I
per cent of the existing bulk carrier tonnage was not built
on Asian yards. Statistical details
Broken-up bulk carriers p. 29
Looking at the order book end of 2010, China has Second hand and newbuilding prices p. 30
Demolition prices p. 30
strengthened its leading position and is in the first rank Market review
with 29.6 million cgt equal to 51.3 per cent of the total Freight and charter market p. 55– 65
Shipping prices and costs p. 67 – 69
world bulk carrier order book, followed by Japan with SSMR InfoLine Special
12.1 million cgt (21.0 per cent) and Korea with 10.9 Statistical details “The world bulk carrier order book”
million cgt (18.9 per cent). Besides the Philippines (3.9 per Bulk carriers on order by type p. 39
cent), all other shipbuilding countries had a share of less Bulk carriers on order by type and delivery schedule p. 40
New bulk carrier orders by type and major countries
than 3 per cent. The European shipyards, organised in of build p. 41
CESA, hold a cgt market share of only 0.7 per cent, New bulk carrier orders by type and major countries
of domicile p. 42
slightly lower than in 2000 (1.0 per cent). According to Explanatory note
IHS Fairplay, about 200 yards are currently involved in The compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised by shipbuilder
bulk carrier shipbuilding. Hyundai is the largest associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working Party on
Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accurate measure of
shipbuilder for bulk carriers. shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross ton (gt) and
deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross tons (cgt) is
calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a coefficient, which is
determined according to type and size for a particular ship. Cgt is used as
an indicator of the volume of work that is necessary to build a given ship.
The new compensated gross ton system (cgt) coefficient for a 10,000 gt
bulk carrier is 7,987 cgt.
SSMR April 2011 9

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