2. Where Next?
The Future Of DigitalâŠ
This is a summary of the presentation Neil
Cartwright gave at the GoNorth festival
opening keynote. The blue panels are notes
added to assist the understanding if viewing
the the presentation remotely. Some panels
have been edited for better viewing.
3. The Generation Gap
âą âPeople couldnât stream so had
to wait for music to be played on
the radioâ
âą âThe iPod has made music
portable, which means you can
listen to it anywhereâ
âą âPeople stopped listening to CDâs
whenYouTube was inventedâ
âą âBefore Napster people had to
pay for musicâ
Students at a college I lectured
at were asks to write an
assignment at the end of term.
Some of their comments
highlight how a âyounger
generationâ view change within
the music industry
4. We constantly
overestimate the impact
technology will have in
one year but
underestimate the
impact it will have in ten.
- Bill Gates
â
5. It all started for
me with the
ZX81. This PC
had 1k of
memory,
enough to hold
0.2 seconds of
music.
9. Sony Music, 1997
!
No email
One internet PC
No iPods
âPidgeon Holesâ
Business was very different back in
1997. Even communication tools
such as email were in their infancy.
And yet only 16 years later over half
of Sonyâs global revenue is now
generated by âdigitalâ formats.
11. We constantly
overestimate the impact
technology will have in
one year but
underestimate the
impact it will have in ten.
- Bill Gates
â
So, letâs remind ourselves of Bill
Gatesâ quote and see what has
changed in 10 years
12. Change in 10 years
2007
2008
2006
2006
2006
2013
13. We can see that although change is constant
it can be almost imperceptible at the time.
Therefore, how do we predict what is going to
change and why do companies ïŹnd it so
difïŹcult?
14. The graph shows the dramatic
drop in US album sales over a 10
year period. The failure to predict
change was catastrophic to the
people working for the high street
retailers who closed as a result.
15. !
Companies are quick to adopt
technologies that support their
business model but are slow to
adopt technologies that disrupt it.
- Clayton M. Christensen,The Innovators
Dilemma
â
16. This is Steve Sasson who in 1975
invented the worldâs ïŹrst digital
camera. It was 0.01 mega pixels and
took 23 seconds to take a photo. But
which company did he work for?
17. âą 1975, Invented digital camera
âą 1976, 90% of photographic US ïŹlm sales and 80%
of cameras
âą 1990âs, âKodak Momentâ
âą 1996, $15.7bn revenues
âą 2012, ïŹled for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
18. It was ïŹlmless photography,
so managementâs reaction
was, âthatâs cute - but donât
tell anyone about itâ.
Steve Sasson, Inventor of the
digital camera
â
19. iTunes
The âtraditionalâ music
industry gave us the choice
of buying singles, albums or
compilations. The digital
service most favoured by
the music industry gives us
the choice of buyingâŠ.
singles, albums or
compilations. In other
words, the music industry
has offered consumers a
âsolutionâ that is most like the
one that went before.
20. iTunes has dominated the
paid music market since its
launch. This is often cited as
proof that the music industry
âgetsâ digital and has offered
consumers an alternative to
piracy.
21. However, as a percentage of all
the music traded, shared and
streamed, iTunes represents a
tiny fraction. Itâs clear that
consumers have rejected the
download model favoured by
the industry and want a more
convenient and cost effective
way of accessing music with
their multitude of devices.
22. The drop in global music
sales has been huge, yet
peopleâs appetite for
music is higher than ever.
Clearly the market
demand for music is not
being fulïŹlled due to the
industryâs general
reluctance to embrace a
âdisruptiveâ model such
as streaming or P2P
23. If something is going
to happen in the end,
you may as well do it
in the beginning.
- Henry Kissinger
â
Consumer trends, such as streaming and
mobile phones should be seen and acted
upon. Too often companies look to the past and
say, âWell, that has worked well for usâ rather
than in to the future and make the changes that
may be necessary to their business.
24. The total number of streams (UK) in 2013 (3.7bn) is
more than the total number of singles sold in 60
years.
25. 26% of all entertainment revenue is now access to
content
Millions of consumers are showing
entertainment industries the way they want to
consume their products by signing up with
âon-demandâ services.
26. 90% of all the worldâs data was created in the last 2
years The staggering amount of data created is
growing exponentially each year and is an
indication of how important our browsing,
purchasing, sharing and social media habits
will become to companies.
27. NFC
Biggest revolution is yet to comeâŠ..?
50% of all
marketing will
be spent on
SoMoLo
Gerd
Leonard
I believe NFC will have
as great an impact on
our lives as any
previous technology.
The ability to tap on
virtually any object with
our phones, allied with
the ability to purchase
through an app or use
our mobiles to pay will
profoundly alter the way
companies do business.
28. Feeling overloaded?
Our constant need to feel
connected is a cause of
anxiety, stress & sleep
disorders. Furthermore, could
children be affected by the
constant stimulus? Many
people can feel overwhelmed
by new technology.
29. We look far less to the mainstream for our
inïŹuences. Online communities, niches, tribes,
personal networks, social media, digital natives.
Fashion, music, ïŹlms and television will change
dramatically but content worth less and less.
!
!
PewDiePie is the most subscribed YouTuber in the
world (27m subscribers) and so probably has more
inïŹuence over his audience than any mainstream
media. And yet the photo of him was only
recognised by a handful of the younger members in
the audience at GoNorth.
30. Are we becoming more disconnected
as we become more connected?
We are feeling a growing disconnect with politicians, corporations,
banks, media, security services and âthose in powerâ, resulting in
seismic, life changing events such as Scottish independence vote,
Arab Spring, Ukraine, UKIP, etc. And yet simultaneously we are
more connected to our friends, family, communities and personal
networks. The impact of the Internet is huge and will affect
enormous social change and upheaval that is very difïŹcult to
predict.
31. Bladerunner
An illustration of how difïŹcult to future can
be to predict. In 1984 Ridley Scottâs
masterpiece, âBladerunnerâ, featured hover
cars, space travel and androids so
humanlike they didnât even know they were
androids. And yet, which future year was
Bladrunner set in?