The following is an erratic thought-experiment to place the significant, incremental technologies required to produce true, emergent Artificial Intelligence (AI). It is a culmination of thousands of hours of discussions and parallel-thought experiments I've had with Tristan and others over the past 5 years. It is a work in progress and dates are approximate. If you have any further ideas, thoughts or feedback, please contact me via my blog. I'd love to hear from you!

1. Emergent AI
Path to AI © Nathan Waters 2010. With credit to Tristan Grace.
Feel free to distribute and change this however you want, just give some credit :)
Saturday, February 06, 2010 Hive Mind
The following is an erratic thought-experiment to place the significant, incremental Neural-Link
technologies required to produce true, emergent Artificial Intelligence (AI). It is a
culmination of thousands of hours of discussions and parallel -thought experiments I've Nanotechnology
had with Tristan and others over the past 5 years. It is a work in progress and dates are
approximate. If you have any further ideas, thoughts or feedback, please contact me 3D Printing
via my blog. I'd love to hear from you!
Single Website
As an entrepreneur I believe the fastest and
most effective method to achieve these stages
is to develop companies and business models BCI
to make them happen. You can follow the
activities of our company, Singularitus, or Semantic Web
watch our video podcast, Hive45. AI Agents
Tech-Glasses
Attention Economy
Mobile/Augmented Web
Conclusion
AGI Agents
Recommendation Feed Engines Anarcho-Capitalism
Evolutionary Paradigms
Singularity
Collective Platforms
Edutainment
2010 2013 2015 2017 2029?
AI Page 1

2. Preface
Sunday, February 07, 2010
If you do not think the human species is capable of creating AI, or if you do not think AI could emerge, then please read the
following last. Even if you are unsure, please read this last, for it may cloud your judgment, and I would prefer you to foll ow
my thought pattern from one technological paradigm to the next. I've attempted to write as simplistic as possible, using as
many examples as possible; however my thoughts are still scattered even in writing, so I hope you can follow well enough :)
The creation of AI is truly the holy grail of human achievement. Intelligence has always been the key to the survival of our species and its
continued advancement. Evolution via natural selection has luckily bestowed upon us not only the physical ability to manipulate our
environment, but the cognitive ability to seek patterns and imagine solutions to the many problems we face. We're now entering into a
post-Darwinian world where we can guide the evolutionary path of our technology and of ourselves, but do so at an exponential pace .
We are a collective species, much like ants and bees. As such, we are prone to create extraordinary feats through collective cooperation
and collective intelligence. Take for example our global economy, or the Internet. Both of these are phenomena that have emerged via
collective intelligence. No group or individual has any idea what is exactly happening, and no individual can explain the sys tems; they just
are, and they work rather well on the macro scale.
This is why I think in regards to the development of Artificial Intelligence, it will not be realised solely by a well -coordinated effort by
research groups or by companies like Google (who have said they're working on it). Instead, AI will gradually emerge by harne ssing the
collective intelligence of the entire human populace all connected and interacting in much the same way as they already do on line.
I attempt to make the case that the next stages of incremental consumer technologies will push the species towards the eventual
outcome of connecting individual brains to each other on a neural level. Out of such an intimate connectedness, AI will most likely emerge
as a result of such extreme collective intelligence. Whilst this AI may begin and appear as reliant on the continued use by the collective
species, it won't take long for the system to fully automate itself and replace past human activities/behaviour with accurate , dynamic
algorithms which advance further as each individual continues to utilise and rely on the interconnected system.
AI will emerge from collective intelligence.
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3. The Internet already is feeding our brains
Edutainment Learning and enhancing our intelligence. The entire
Saturday, February 13, 2010 network infrastructure, telephone
exchanges, server farms, and the web itself
This is an interesting phenomena in regards to computer-based learning, but more specifically the idea that computers with all the data, information and websites
are beginning to become our teachers; guiding our thoughts and opinions via entertaining mediums, such as games. could be labeled "AI in Construction".
Guitar Hero (or Rockband) is an amazing piece of simple game architecture that presents a timid, but substantial move Think about it. What you are reading now
toward a future where we are taught by computers to be more intelligent, or even more musically adept to rhythm as was written by myself using a rather
is the case with Guitar Hero. We're starting to see games that utilise the addictive nature of RPG games with rewards, "dumb" laptop with arbitrarily-placed
levels of accomplishment and clever use of symbols to teach players real-world applicable knowledge/education. plastic buttons that route electricity for
processing. I wrote this in your past,
Guitar Hero has an ability to be intuitive enough for a first-time player to pickup the basics very quickly. I've also uploaded it to the Internet "machine"
noticed that often you'll begin a song missing a lot of notes, but you rapidly learn the rhythm and start gaining where you came across it, asked the
confidence to finish the song well. As you watch a player advance over time through the 5 levels of difficulty, you can Internet "machine" to show it to you, and
see they have clearly learnt a lot of the skills to best play the guitar/drums/bass/vocals controllers (which feel realistic now you're reading this information.
despite being plastic instrument controllers). But looking back throughout gaming history, this has always been the
case. As players advance through a game, they learn the skills to become better at the game, which helps them pass As we reach matured Recommendation
each incremental level. They go from being "noobs" to advanced gamers, for that particular game scenario. Thus Feed Engines, this process of information
sophisticated games or edutainment of the future could actually be used to solve global real -world problems by retrieval will become automatic and
harnessing the collective intelligence of millions of players. Or games could be used to teach millions of players specific personal. It will be the "AI in Construction"
skills/knowledge/opinions that would enhance their intelligence and problem-solving skills. Internet machine feeding you information
you're interested in, and thus improving
This same system, the same game has been running around the globe for decades already, the Internet. Browsing the your overall intelligence and knowledge.
web has become the predominant #1 past-time for a large percentage of the population, particularly those under 30.
By browsing the web, reading various articles, posts, comments, watching videos and making use of all that the web Why not learn from the greatest mind in the
has to offer… we are actually improved in some way. Yes, it could have the opposite effect if all you do online is just world?, the Internet. I think as platforms
look at funny pictures. However with the Internet now, people are able to research, learn and educate themselves on mature, edutainment evolves, and an "open
anything in their own time, at their own pace, for free. A great site I use every day is Reddit, and what's interesting is learning" culture emerges, the human
many members publicly thank the community for helping them learn so much about various topics. Personally I think I species could be taught and cognitively
have learnt more about the world and numerous topics of interest, via daily web surfing, than I have probably learnt in enhanced by a single global teacher, the
my entire period of formal education. Internet of collective knowledge: AI to be.
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4. Collective Platforms Already within large online communities, collective The evolution of the social platform
Saturday, February 06, 2010 intelligence is emergent and powerful. With the addition will be necessary to channel and
of Recommendation Feed Engines and the Semantic Web, harness the thoughts, ideas and
we'll create social platforms for various applications knowledge of the entire species.
(news, information, education, activism, government,
The initial 'HTML' web was very static and one-way. Social community etc), and these platforms will allow higher The emergent properties of these
media and social platforms are definitely a welcome orders of collective intelligence, and in essence this will basic Hive Minds, allow for the best
extension, and here to stay. The recent battle on the allow the Internet "machine" to extract implicit knowledge information and ideas to surface.
Internet has been essentially about creating the best from people, and promote new ideas and thoughts by There is also a strong cultural
platform for communication and collaboration, as well as connecting like-minds and like-interests. influence via memes.
simple methods for harnessing the power of the masses to
filter excessive amounts of information.
Emergent collective intelligence often has We'll also begin to see a
an economic model attached (for example shift in culture. Today,
our global economy). The next platforms social networking is The next platform will be
will use points and awards to help groups plagued by thoughtless about connecting not only
and individuals to further filter information, spam. These new platforms people-to-people, and
which will lead into the Attention Economy. will better filter interests people-to-content… but
and ideas of substance to people-to-content-to-people
receptive individuals. Info (connecting people to each
Allowed easy publishing Person-to-person of substance will other through their
and RSS feeds for filtering connection beneficially outweigh. interests). Much like how our
closest friends share our
interests, platforms will focus
Chat (IRC, MSN) >>> Forums (vBulletin etc) >>> Blogs >>> Digg >>> MySpace/Facebook >>> Reddit >>> Twitter >>> ??? on grouping people together
around interests/topics/ideas
First social platforms, focus Democratic, social news Real-time, quick and brief
on comments and threading Social filters via interest
filtering via voting and one groups (aka subreddits) broadcasts (though too much data
of the first introductions of and too little filtering to function)
"feeds" of information
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5. Recommendation Feed Engines The ultimate implications of this move is that the entire WWW as we know
Saturday, February 06, 2010 it, will become completely dynamic per individual user. In other words:
every website will personally adapt it's displayed content and even things
like GUI, design and colours… they will do so dynamically, and in real-time.
There is an excessive amount of information available online,
which is increasing in volume and frequency at exponential rates.
Conventional methods for filtering information relevant to e.g. when you go to the BBC website, a small script will recognise Facebook Connect is
individual interests are already becoming ineffective (e.g. who you are, it will then query all of your social profiles to build a already beginning this,
"digging", up/down voting, "subreddits", following demographic picture of your interests, and will then display only although is currently too
niches/people). news stories relevant and interesting to you. If you're not interested proprietary to make a
in sports, it won't be shown. If there are any news stories displayed significant impact.
All current popular platforms (Facebook, Digg, Reddit, Twitter that are not of interest, the algorithm will learn and adapt.
etc) operate on feeds of information. Ideally, 100% of that feed
should be relevant and interesting to the user. Recommendation
engines and algorithms will push toward this goal over the next For this transition, we'll need what's been called the
Such a service will begin via "social cloud" - where all of an individual's social data
few years. plugin scripts, allowing the is stored in the cloud, openly accessible with
smallest of websites the ability to permission, and not held captive by any one company
In order to achieve this, meta-data will need to be extracted dynamically display content
from the entirety of the user's online activities, social profiles or social platform. Semantically linking the social data
based on the social data of the will also be beneficial. These companies will be very
and behaviours. A collaboration between social platforms will be visiting user. But the Semantic
beneficial to aggregate data across platforms (e.g. combining reluctant to make this move, but ultimately it will be
Web will help push this practice necessary to cooperate, or risk becoming obsolete.
your activity data on both Facebook and Reddit would be more as a standard across the web.
beneficial to create recommendation algorithms).
Culturally this phenomenon could segregate individuals, and restrict certain kinds of
The more a user interacts on the platform, the more their information from getting to users. e.g. a Creationist may never be displayed information
personal recommendation algorithm will develop and return about Evolution. So this could be dangerous. In fact, there is also an ability for severe
more relevant information. The algorithms will be fractal, with manipulation the likes of which has never been seen before. For example the algorithm
heavy focus on feedback loops to automatically develop highly could be designed to slowly and discretely alter the views, opinions and behaviour of any
complex arrays of variables. Facebook and others have already particular user by feeding advertising or content using techniques like behavioural
begun utilising user behaviour to adapt offerings. marketing. I like to call this "Hitler 2.0" or "Propaganda 2.0".
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6. Mobile/Augmented Web
Saturday, February 06, 2010 Google is already encouraging Android mobile users to use voice search. Every
voice search is recorded and analysed, thus allowing Google to refine their speech -
to-text recognition algorithms and the ability within the next few years for real -
time language translation. The more people use voice to search, the greater
The mobile web is already well underway, but it is significant in conversational Natural Language Processing (NLP) will become. The futuristic idea
the process of achieving AI for many reasons: of being able to talk to your computer and have it talk back, is less than 5 years
away now. It will seem like AI, but it is merely the advancement of NLP.
1) The majority of Internet users will use their mobiles to gain
access. The experience is different, but the mobility and always - Augmented reality apps have also begun and are rapidly evolving. With the use of a
on connected attitude will likely result in more information standard platform (all data accessible and open), these apps will essentially allow us
creation and greater/longer Internet use. to digitally tag the entire globe with metadata. With such a database, we'll have vast
2) Mobiles are cheap and will allow developing countries to
amounts of on-demand information about the world around us. In essence, it is a
connect billions of people over the next decade. With more
merging of the digital and the natural world.
people connected, and more information being shared,
collective intelligence will become more powerful.
3) Additional metadata is available through phones. E.g. GPS
coordinates opens the door to location-awareness, camera and What this digital tagging will achieve in regards to AI,
video also offer a great deal more input into the Internet is to become the eyes and ears into the world.
"machine" including augmented reality Everything about anything in the world will be known
4) Bandwidth demand will push communication companies to to it. The AI will be able to recognise any object and
increase 3G/4G/wireless speeds and coverage give detailed information. Plus of course, the act of
5) With a computer permanently in every person's pocket, digital tagging will be very beneficial to users, and the
additional pieces of technology can be attached. E.g. devices that potential applications are only limited by imagination.
monitor health vitals, or monitor climate weather and pollution
levels. The aggregation of such data would be immensely
powerful in medical and climate science. Once Tech-Glasses become more mainstream and socially accepted, this augmented
6) Tech-Glasses will begin as add-ons to mobile phones and slowly layer will be near-permanently available on-demand. Eventually this will allow for
evolve to the point of non-invasive brain-scanning, and virtual reality environments to be overlaid on the real world, and offer the ability to
ultimately a complete worldwide Neural-Link. personally customise the real world to individual likings. Want to make your girlfriend
more attractive? Or change her from a brunette to blonde? … that'll be doable.
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7. AGI Agents
Saturday, February 06, 2010 These kind of agent applications will also So long as there is consumer demand for
enable a life-casting revolution in order to such services, input into these systems will
acquire the kind of data necessary to offer continue to increase, and thus the
the best features. For example, you'd algorithms and complex behind-the-scenes
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) agents will come about record GPS locations and cross-reference
as the mobile web becomes more developed. But the idea systems will continue to advance.
with user-entered diary/itinerary… as well Harnessing and extracting collective
is that with voice recognition and conversational NLP as maintaining a complete backup of the intelligence is the key.
algorithms improving, users will be able to essentially have data in the cloud.
a conversation with their phones. This includes not only
searching the web, but asking questions like "What was
the name of the Italian restaurant I went to last week?".
Speech and conversation are a much more efficient and
effective way to interact with computers, and with efforts
such as those at Google with voice NLP, we'll finally see
this come to reality.
Various agent apps will become available using this Much like the AGI Agents that came out of Web 1.0… such as search algorithms, text
technology. These agents won't be anywhere near as translation and even something as seemingly trivial as the Google spell-check ("Did you
powerful as the AI Agents available as a result of the mean?"); we will also see numerous AGI Agents built via extracting the collective
Semantic Web, but to the average user, it will seem as intelligence of consumer use of the mobile web.
though their phone has incredible intelligence. Until we
achieve the standardised connections and data of the So for example, Google (you've got to love this company) has been perfecting speech-to-
semantic web, all of these AGI Agents will be reliant on text algorithms by recording all the voice searches of its users. By keeping records and
proprietary APIs which are often tedious to work with. through analysation, every new piece of recording helps perfect the algorithm and the
Already we're seeing incredible applications function via a system that provides the service. I expect further advancements in areas such as real-
messy inter-mic of multiple APIs from multiple sources. time speech-to-speech translation (another thing Google has said they expect in a few
Though hopefully this will push for standardised data, as years), and also some really cool innovations based off geolocation data or personal
demand increases. assistants (e.g. Siri was in this news at the time of writing).
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8. Tech-Glasses The "Tech-Glasses" or "HUD Overlays" or "Digital Eyewear", whatever they'll be called, will create a drastic shift in human
culture and a more distinct merging of man and machine. Already there are commercial versions available, and
Saturday, February 06, 2010
proponents of the trend, like Steve Mann, have been playing with prototypes since the 80s. However, even today's
versions are bulky and "dorky". The overall benefit to social cost is not justified to most people (including myself).
The display technology is just not there yet, but it will be within 5 years. These devices will begin their lives as very basic add-ons
to mobile phones. For example, I'd really like to see a "cool/hip" eyewear manufacturer like Oakley release the most basic version
that simply begins with glasses that have bluetooth connectivity to your mobile, and an inbuilt camera. You could connect that
with an Oakley app on your iPhone or Android, and manually take pictures or be able to set the glasses to automatically take
photos every X seconds. It would be such a simple beginning prototype that could be marketed easily toward say, the Twitter
generation. Naturally this would push further features and lead into digital screens within the glasses.
Why are tech-glasses significant to AI development? … well, again it is The culture-shock to come from mainstream adoption of
encouraging more use and connectedness of the Internet (but not as we tech-glasses will be astonishing. There is not enough room
currently know it), it will further the augmented web… but what could here to explain all the possibilities, but I'll share one:
be significant is the thought experiment of "what if we put some brain- These glasses will be able to monitor minute changes in body language and voice tone of
scanning technology into those glasses?". Already we have some basic, the people you're looking at. Much like advances in airport security. Monitoring will be
but amazing, small commercial headset devices capable of reading
incredibly minute, such as seeing the exact movement of facial muscles. With such
brainwaves. Once we can control our computers (or what we're shown
precision, these glasses will be able to tell you what a person is feeling at any particular
on the tech-glasses) with our minds, things become very interesting.
time. And if you'd like, you could ask the glasses to give advice on what to say/do to
manipulate/comfort/excite/encourage the individual. The game of pickup artists and
We all know that communication is a driving factor of collective entire social interactions will change, for better or worse.
cooperation, the spread of ideas and ultimately, the emergence of
collective intelligence. But both the spoken and written word are
incredibly limiting mediums for sharing our thoughts, our ideas, our
And of course, this is when life-casting, life-recording will go mainstream. Everything you
feelings. Even the most articulate speakers, and eloquent writers of the
see, every conversation, every location, every thought you have will be recorded,
world suffer from this limitation… not to mention the lack of retention
catalogued, indexed and intricately searchable.
each of us suffer from when reading or listening to others. By moving
closer to monitoring and sharing brainwave activity, we can slowly begin
The impact of this on thought development, mental development, memory and a range of
to understand the brain more intricately. Primitive forms of telepathy
cognitive and social aspects will be astonishing. Entire books can be written on this stuff.
and thought-sharing will be possible (in fact DARPA is already
researching such applications for military use). And again, such a move
will propel us to the Neural-Link.
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9. Semantic Web
However, much like the idea of "cloud computing" and the
Saturday, February 06, 2010
"social cloud" there is often similar ambiguity regarding the
Semantic Web amongst people (including those in the tech
Once you truly grasp what the Semantic Web is to be… in industry). The single biggest hurdle holding the semantic web
all seriousness, this is AI. Well, using AI Agents. back is that the terminology and methods for converting
one's data into RDF/RDFa format are too complicated. I think
the first step of the process must focus on simply
For those who don't know what the Semantic Web is, it's basically standardising and linking databases only. To do so, we need
about linking data to data. Much like how the Internet connected to convince companies that making the move and sharing
computers-to-computers, and the WWW connected websites-to- their data will be beneficial, and then we need simple web-
websites; the Semantic Web (or Web 3.0) is about connecting apps to make that transition happen. Tim Berners-Lee has
databases-to-databases, and the information on any website to that been trying to push this move to the mainstream, but I fear Connecting this data will take
of any other… so connecting thoughts-to-thoughts. the entire concept is still clasped in the realms of large some time, but again it will
educational institutions, governments (slowly) and giant spur a collective intelligence to
It doesn't sound like much, but the implications and subsequent multinational companies. create the next evolution of
applications (AI Agents) that can be built are truly amazing. Whilst the Internet which will be
so many unique web apps these days are built off the back of APIs or Too much of the world's information and data is locked away completely changed from how
by combining multiple APIs (Twitter, Google Maps etc), the issue in servers ("data silos"), held tight and made inaccessible to it exists today.
with this approach is that each API has proprietary markup and the world.
program calls to extract pieces of information. If all the websites It will take longer in order to
releasing these APIs converted their data into RDF (the current With databases alone linked, then other data/information see applications fully harness
semantic standard), then each database and each piece of data not already structured in some sense can begin to be linked this intelligence, but things like
could be linked to one another other easily and seamlessly. (e.g. basic information within a HTML website). With simple creative thinking (linking
algorithms, it will be possible to automatically analyse any thoughts together) and even
What this creates is a further level of hierarchy of connection across new piece of information input into the Internet "machine", new discoveries in science will
the Internet. The era of HTML hyperlinks allowed for the WWW we and automatically slot that information into RDF format, as be automatic (e.g. linking one
know today. The intricate linking of data to other data across the well as create an ontology to automatically link the new scientific discovery to another).
web is more analogous with that of the deep parallel, neural information to every other piece of similar information
connections of the human brain; of an AI brain. throughout the entire web.
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10. The culmination of these AI Agents to come out of the Semantic Web will hit today's concept of what AI
AI Agents ought to be, right on the head. This is AI. It won't be sentient, but it will be incredibly intelligent and
Saturday, February 06, 2010 seem to the average user to be AI, to be a "Hal". But of course, as we humans have done with every new
advent of AI-based technology (which frankly run much of this civilisation already)… we'll want more.
We won't consider it to be AI, until we hit Emergent AI.
Search engines will become amazingly accurate in
So what are AI Agents? … they're basically little programs that run in the cloud and utilise the
providing the exact answer to any question. Since all
semantically-linked data to provide intelligent services, mostly automatically. The best way to
data is linked on the web, "search spiders" won't be
understand this is to give some very basic examples:
lagging, slow things like Google and others use, but
they will be real-time and utilise the power of various
1) Say you're on a flight from one city to another flying, say, Virgin. You're watching an in-flight movie on
servers to serve the result. The search will bounce
the back of the chair in front, but since it's a short flight, the movie cuts off when you land. However
from server to server across the entire Internet,
when book into a motel, and switch-on the television, you're instantly greeted with a message asking if
following the linked data to find the exact answer to
you'd like to continue watching the movie from where you left off. Click play, and the movie starts
complex questions.
playing.
a. It sounds futuristic and a little surveillance-ridden, but the technology behind the scenes is based
Also with conversational NLP, these searches will be
on simple linked-data. Virgin releases the data that shows you were in seat X, watching movie Y,
very conversational and catered to the individual. If
that cut-off at time Z. The motel you book into gains access to this data after verifying your
there is anything you ever want to know, you'll just
identity, and then simply pulls those variables to give you the option of finishing the movie… all
talk to your phone as it scours the web for the precise
automatically. In such a system, you would also have complete control over your privacy and there
information.
would be checks and balances to ensure anonymity except where granted.
2) Say you need a dental checkup (or have been reminded you do). We'll each have our own personal
Everything becomes smarter when everything is
assistant AI Agents, so you'll speak to yours and say something like "I want a dentist appointment
connected. AI Agents able to combine pieces of
sometime in the next week, within a 10km radius". The AI Agent then automatically follows all the linked
information/ideas to create new ones will give
data and finds reputable dentists (based on aggregate ratings/reviews/friend recommendations) within
computers the creativity edge which so far humans
a 10km radius. It looks at your current schedule/itinerary for the next week and the available bookings
have held reign on. Scientific advances will begin to be
at the returned dentists… then instantly pulls back some options for you. If you want to refine your
developed by machines more than man, done by
requests you can, or you can select the appointment you'd like. This will then instantly book you into
simply connecting all currently known science and
the dentist, and the records will automatically show in your schedule, and in the dentist's database. You
running automated simulated experiments 24/7 at a
go to the dentist, and you're automatically billed (currency becomes obsolete with this system, finally).
trillion+ cycles per second.
Again seems futuristic, but it's nothing but simple linked-data and some basic programming.
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11. Attention Economy e.g. with a ridiculous abundance of music, movies,
Saturday, February 06, 2010 information and any other content with demand… why
should consumers be required to pay for this content?
This isn't really necessary for the path to AI, but the concept is We're already seeing this transition across the board,
very interesting and worth giving thought to. You can read particularly in regards to music. A majority of the public
more about the Attention Economy via the Wikipedia page. The already pirate music. But with so many songs to choose
idea stems from looking at how our current economy is based from, musicians should be honored for us to pay our
on scarcity (there are only so many goods, so much raw opportunity cost in order to spend 3min listening to their
materials etc). Our current materials economy becomes quite song. Independent artists have adopted this attitude, simply Advertising has been a
different when looking at our information economy. because the more people listen to their music, the more contentious issue with the
Information by its very nature is not scarce, but abundant (and people know about their music, and the greater their rise of "Web 2.0". So many
exponentially growing) and is only limited by the total energy reputation becomes. Even if they give their music away, with apps have no business
required to fuel information. such a large fan base, it becomes easy to make a living via model other than advertising
merchandising or via concerts. revenue, and yet the
With scarcity in our current materials economy, we can apply a industry hasn't caught-up.
currency to value goods and services, which provides for the What we will see in just over the next decade is a reversal of What we'll be seeing in the
platform for collective intelligence (aka our global economy). To the old paradigm, to the new attention economy. Eventually next decade is content-
achieve a similar system in an information economy, and apply I think musicians and any content producer will actually based advertising whereby
a value to information, we need a source of scarcity. begin to pay consumers (in hard dollars or perhaps virtual content producers pay
currency) in order for the privilege of having people consume advertising middle-men to
Since humans are only able to consume information at a their content. distribute the actual content
theoretical maximum of 24 hours per day, our scarcity factor to relevant consumers and
becomes that of the time required to consume information. e.g. consumers should be paid to give-up 2 hours of their pay on an
time to see a specific movie, when they could be doing any attention/consumption
Thus, what will take-over as the global economy of choice in number of other things with their time, or even watching any model rather than just a
regards to information abundance and ubiquity, is the of the other dozens of movies available. I should be paid click-through model.
Attention Economy. "real" money or a virtual currency of sorts to watch your
movie over others.
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12. Anarcho-Capitalism It will be a turbulent transition, but we're beginning to see the initial
Tuesday, February 09, 2010 steps as governments start opening their doors more to public scrutiny
and input. Social networking sites played a large role in the 2008 US
elections, and will play a greater role in the 2012 elections. Many
Again, this doesn't really relate to AI development, but is an interesting governments around the world have been allowing social sites to
thought nevertheless…. submit and vote-up various questions to ask politicians. It won't be long
before specific policies will be developed and voted-in with help from
The term "anarchy" has such a bad reputation amongst the public, but the online community.
really it just refers to a bottom-up order of governance, instead of a
top-down order. Top-down order is very rare in this world, and never Our current political system seems absurd given our technological
works particularly well to that of a bottom-up approach, such as ability at present. For what we like to call a "democracy", our individual
Evolution, our economy, the Internet. These are all examples of chaotic input tends to boil down to voting for one person, of one party, once
systems whose platforms (DNA, finance/money, computers/HTML) every 4 years. All policy decisions between those 4 years tends to be
allow for self-organisation and cooperation without a dictatorial leader. left to the hands of politicians each pushing party agendas, and
lobbyists working for large companies, pushing their industry agendas.
I envisage that within the next decade or two with the ubiquity of social
networking, and organisational platforms; government systems will Why we can't now implement a basic system where each political bill is
begin to phase out and be replaced by digital platforms for societal developed, refined and voted on by the entire public… doesn't make
communication, organisation and community action. much sense. There is a platform that could achieve this, but with
current progress it is still a few years away.
A great example is that of eBay. Every day millions of transactions are
made with no top-down control or middle-man. The system functions
on a basic platform and self-regulates via buyer reviews.
Wikipedia is another fantastic example of this same phenomenon.
All that will be required to almost completely phase-out government is
the right virtual platform.
AI Page 12

13. BCI Whatever timeframe eventuates for this technology,
Saturday, February 06, 2010 it will allow for incredibly fast interactions between
not only humans and computers, but between
humans everywhere. This technology will allow for
One of the fastest growing research areas at the moment is that hands-free use of the previously mentioned Tech-
of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI). This has to do with devising Glasses and push further toward the ultimate hive
ways to bypass the slow and cumbersome input/interactive mind, via the Neural-lInk.
devices commonly held by the keyboard and mouse, and touch-
screen devices as we're seeing now. Speech input is picking up
Telepathy, mind-reading, sharing thoughts and feelings in real-time with anyone in the
speed as an alternative, but the holy grail is the idea of just using
world will be possible as a result of the research in this area and the consumer devices it
your mind/thoughts to control a computer/device.
produces. I still think the technology will reach consumers first via non-invasive head-sets
or the Tech-Glasses with this tech embedded. Eventually though as society accepts tiny
As mentioned before, we're already seeing leaps into this
brain implants, this will become the norm. This technology will likely come about well
technology with basic consumer "mind reading" devices used to
before nanotechnology, but nanotech will take this trend further and thus not require
control limited software functions; as well as brain implants used
surgery to embed a chip (instead we'll just need a small injection of nanbots).
to help Alzheimer's sufferers.
Once we start monitoring brain waves using these devices, we can match each electrical
I have friend's working in this field now, with research work into
brain pulse/wave to the actions the user is performing, and as a result use that data to
soft materials (basically solving the problem of connecting, in
intricately understand how the human brain works, including memory, learning etc etc.
layman's terms, a wire to a nerve). With so much excitement and
funding in this area, they expect the research to come to fruition
As the technology matures and we're able to achieve two-way communication between
within 5 years, and for consumer applications to come shortly
the brain (e.g. store and retrieve memory), then we can start augmenting our brains. So for
after. Intel has recently announced that they have a team
example, if you're memory is poor we'd simply route all memories to digital mediums and
dedicated to creating chips or devices that will allow consumers
whenever we want to search or recall any memory we can have them fed back into our
to exclusively control computers using just their brains (no
brains instantly. Things like intelligence augmentation, sensory replacement (for ultra-
keyboard or mouse) within 10 years. I imagine we'll be using a
realistic virtual reality), the ability for groups of individuals to create temporary or
combination of touchscreen, keyboard and hand gestures, along
permanent neural networks (literally) so that 100s or 1000s of brains could be combined to
with our minds for quite a while as the technology matures.
work in parallel to solve a problem… and of course numerous other scenarios will be
possible with brain-computer interface technology.
AI Page 13

14. Single Website
Saturday, February 06, 2010 Sites like Digg and Reddit,
including news/content
This is a rather unique, new and potentially worrying idea I had… that you may not aggregators are a brief, initial
agree with, but give it some thought… the name is also horrible, it should perhaps be peek at this trend of
something like "Content Display via AI" or "Information Singularity" … I'm not sure :) concentrating the whole
Internet into a single
With the combination of Recommendation Feed Engines, the Semantic Web, BCI website.
technology and a little bit of AI programming… I see no reason why every single
website or web/phone app cannot be produced via a single "website".
In other words there becomes no such thing as separate websites… facebook.com,
Why this is potentially scary is that the current capitalist-driven system
google.com, twitter.com etc… but you essentially go onto the Internet and are
that exists on the Internet, will be destroyed. There would be no reason for
given exactly what content you desire, with features, GUIs, UIs, colours, designs
anyone to create the next facebook.com or youtube.com or twitter.com
(everything you'd expect) produced and output onto the "screen" in real-time,
because it wouldn't be necessary, this "single website" would do it on the
uniquely designed and suited just for you. The same applies for phone apps (which I
fly far faster than any company could, and with far more advanced
think will all be purely web-based in 5 years) and desktop apps (which again, will all
features.
be purely web-based in 5 years).
Should this come to eventuate however, I think this "single website" would
To help wrap your head around this, say you want to search for content (since the
hopefully act as a platform onto which a new paradigm of software/web-
BCI device can sense your desires)… you are instantly displayed something
app development will spawn… perhaps in regards to the development of
analogous to today's google.com … but it isn't google, and everything about the
virtual reality and augmented reality.
website is unique to you. Or say you want to socially interact with your friends…
instantly this "single website" generates something analogous to facebook.com but
The 2D screens (desktops, laptops, tablets, mobile phones etc) would thus
with unique features, unique colours, unique buttons/links/functions/content etc
be conquered. This "single website" would display the perfect app and
just for you.
content in real-time on any 2D screen… so perhaps the next battle will be
that of the 3D immersion, of virtual reality, of augmented reality.
It's like a magic "website" that creates entirely new "websites" with entirely new
features/functions/designs/content, on-the-fly, as you want it.
And perhaps a "single website" AI will come to fruition for those mediums
too. Information perfection and saturation. An Information Singularity.
This sounds very out-there, but I think this will be achievable given the above-
mentioned technologies within the next 10-15 years.
AI Page 14

15. 3D Printing The MakerBot is kicking off the 3D printing
Saturday, February 06, 2010 revolution with a cheap, open-source
alternative. Hopefully open-source
maintains a lead over the commercial
Why 3D printing? … that doesn't seem to be linked to intelligence or options… which will speed innovation as
neuroscience! Well, firstly it's just really cool that one day in the near individuals across the world share, adapt
future we'll be able to print anything we want within our homes. and improve each other's designs for any
Secondly, the commercial and consumer demand of such devices will particularly product. And hopefully
encourage the refinement of arranging small things, which is what copyright and IP laws will finally catch-up
nanotechnology is all about… arranging things, atom by atom. and align with the culture.
As these devices mature, we'll begin to see the physical world come under the same principles that
power the information/digital world. In other words, the physical world becomes somewhat
exponential, and very malleable. Innovations in physical products and design will propel at similar
speeds to the innovation we're seeing in information technology (e.g. the Internet).
Currently these 3D printers are only able to print plastic, but it won't be long before they can print
The 3D printing revolution will push for further
metals and alloys, and thus the ability for people to print their own microchips and circuit boards in their
innovation toward nanotechnology as demand
own homes.
increases for finer printing abilities and smaller
products.
Particularly as wearable computing becomes widespread (such as the Tech-Glasses), we'll see individuals
around the world developing interesting prototypes and add-ons… and sharing them free with the
This will be the next trend for product production, and
world. Other people will pickup these blueprints, alter them and make them better. The innovation
really the only place to go after 3D printing is self-
propelled by this open-source 3D printing will be amazing. It won't be long before groups of individuals
organising molecular production and nanobot building
operating in this cooperative fashion will be able to R&D and deploy new gadgets and devices far
(of making things atom by atom).
quicker than today's multinational corporations can.
Crowd-sourcing is already replacing age-old business
As 3D printing becomes a cheaper alternative for producing large items like cars or even mass-produced
models as a direct result of new technologies in the
electronics, I imagine existing manufacturing companies will establish "3D printing factories" in every
space of industrial production.
major city in the world. So that whenever a new product is R&D'd and ready for manufacturer, the
digital blueprints will be sent to these printing factories where they can instantly begin mass producing
the product and distributing directly within that country (thus saves shipping costs and time delays).
AI Page 15

16. Nanotechnology
Saturday, February 06, 2010
Biotechnology, particularly in regards to chemical/drug/gene-therapy (whatever) that increase
human intelligence and cognitive function, will be very beneficial to enhancing the hive mind
necessary for powerful AI development. Also, brain scanning and a greater understanding of
how the brain works, will be very important. However I have excluded biotechnology from this
"Path to AI" because nanotechnology will be the main area in which we can drastically increase
intelligence, BCI connectivity and achieve global neural-to-neural linkage between human
beings… what I call the Neural-Link. Scientists working in the nanotechnology field have already
developed working computer simulations of nanobots just a
Nanotech has been a long-held pursuit in science for the last few decades. Famous few atoms in size that are able to perform various functions and
physicist Richard Feynman knew back in 1960 that there appeared to be no move in certain ways (e.g. a nano-sized motor). Once we have
physical laws in the universe that prohibited moving things atom by atom. With the tools able to rapidly build these self-replicating nanobots,
trillions of self-replicating nano-machines able to pickup and move atoms of raw the world changes instantly. Humans will be able to build
material, absolutely anything can be built almost instantly by these nanobots. With anything on an atomic level, allowing for gadgets of atomic
the ultimate maturation of such technology there is the fear of a grey-goo scenario sizes and the ability to exploit the unique properties of
where unstoppable, rouge nanobots mix all the atoms of Earth into a single glob. nanomaterials. With nanotech we'll be able to create perfect
But once we have safety immune systems in place, we'll be able to manipulate the brain-computer interfaces which seamlessly merge and
real world atoms into anything we can imagine… and we could do so using just our intertwine biology with technology.
minds (with BCI). The real world becomes as malleable as the digital world.
That's a distant scenario, but for AI development, nanotechnology would boil While genius in self-directed Evolution, the human brain is already
down to developing nanobots that would attach themselves to each neuron, and losing to computers in various functions. The brain has very slow
thus intercept and send signals to merge the brain's neural network with electrical transfer speeds between neurons, it often has difficulty
machines. With such an intimate merging, we'll be able to increase our with logic, cannot process large mathematical calculations, has very
intelligence, memory and cognitive skills by unimaginable factors. 1million-fold poor short and long-term memory, and is restricted in processing
intelligence increase would be a conservative estimate… and if this technology power to just one brain. Computers can already overcome and
leads to a Neural-Link then the theoretical intelligence increase would be 6billion exceed these problems, and are gaining ground on the parallel -
(i.e. the entire size of the population at the time, similarly plugged into the processing network power of the brain.
Internet via neural nanobot connection).
AI Page 16

17. Neural-Link
Saturday, February 06, 2010
The Neural-Link is the obvious end game of everything previously mentioned.
Imagine you draw a circle to represent the Earth. Then around the circumference you draw dots to
The technology to achieve this is very possible and
represent the 10billion living humans. Now draw a link from each dot, to the other 9,999,999,999 dots.
basically just an extension of the current technological
The total number of connections is astonishing. And what's more is that each of those dots is a nanobot -
trends of smaller, more mobile devices. BCI and Tech-
enhanced mobile computer (aka, a human brain) with roughly 100billion neurons each. If every human
Glasses will kickoff the trend for neural linkage, as they
neuron is connected to every other human neuron, this is a single global brain, the ultimate Hive Mind.
integrate brain-scanning functions into headsets or
offer commercial brain implants. But once you can
It then becomes interesting to think what this develops into. Firstly it will create a brain larger than
wrap each neuron with a nanobot capable of wirelessly
anything ever seen before, and thus we'd have created a superior intelligence analogous to AI. The total
connecting neural activity then the merger is complete.
number of neurons in this brain exceeds 1 sextillion or 1 x 10 21. With all humans connected, this brain
will have access to the sight, hearing, emotions, experiences, knowledge and intelligence of all 10 billion
An interesting thing to note is that we don't have to
humans. Any single firing of a neuron or any single thought would instantly reverberate to all humans
limit this technology and connectedness to just
around the globe and naturally incite further neural firings and thoughts. A snowball effect or singularity
humans. There is the potential to connect the neurons
of thoughts would occur.
of every animal and biological systems of every plant in
the world. Perhaps a collective intelligence of world
The Internet has all this time been just us. Humans interacting with each other and sharing
dogs could shed light on a super-effective algorithm for
thoughts/ideas via a computer network medium. This Neural-Link will plug humans into the Internet,
identifying smells. Or perhaps we could solve specific
where every single neural firing is recorded for posterity (so every thought, memory, sight etc is
problems by combining the reasoning of the human
recorded), and where every thought is routed to receptive individuals (e.g. if someone has a thought I'd
collective brain with the reasoning of the dolphin
be interested in, I instantly want to "hear" it).
collective brain.
Minds will decide to temporarily merge to solve particular problems or to socialise. Global telepathy
And of course, by including animals in this link, we
becomes reality allowing individuals to share thoughts, feelings and ideas intimately with little to no
could temporarily have an out-of-body experience
noise or communication loss (as is the case with both written and verbal communication). We would
where you could feel exactly what it is like inside the
solve so many of our social and cultural disputes and biases. If everyone can very accurately "walk in
brain of, say a cat.
someone else's shoes" then we understand each other, and so issues like racism become obsolete.
AI Page 17

18. Hive Mind There will be a few dissenters who will object to
Saturday, February 06, 2010 having non-invasive nanobots injected to connect
them to the hive mind. But a brief look at a cost-
benefit analysis shows you would fall behind the
As a result of this Neural-Link, the human species becomes a hive rest of the populous by factors of billions in areas
mind with superior capacity for cognitive reasoning, problem solving of knowledge and intelligence. Those people will
and intelligence. Much like individual ants and bees go about their find life difficult from basic living standards to even
business with no idea of the complexity of their constructions, trying to get a job. They would become as
humans will go about their business not really knowing what we've influential and significant in society as the Amish
created as a collective. The hive mind intelligence is beyond the level are today (i.e. not at all).
at which any individual could understand.
Looking at current human achievements you can see that by adopting The Evolution of ideas, the speed of innovation, the pace of progress will dramatically
currency, capitalism, and financial markets we were able to create a improve as a result of this hive mind. Age-old scientific problems could potentially be
giant organism known as "the economy". The economy is an solved within hours. If any human has any problem that requires solving or any question
intelligent system able to route money and resources to where they they would like an answer to, they merely have to think it, and have the entire hive mind
are required, and has brought about large increases in wealth and "reply" with solutions and answers.
living conditions. Though despite the fact that we have "economists",
the economy is so large and has so many variables (since it is a I have witnessed the power of parallel thinking between just two or three people, and
collective intelligence) that humans cannot understand how the the resulting thoughts and ideas are astonishing. The hive mind will be able to send you
economy fully works. thoughts very relevant and interesting to yourself. Just like when you're told an idea, and
you then create further ideas on top… as you are fed thoughts/neural-spikes of interest,
The same goes for the Internet. Once we connected all our computers your brain will have additional thoughts/neural-spikes which will then be immediately
together, they were able to share information quickly amongst each routed to other receptive individuals or those who thought of the original idea.
other… and thus we have the Internet. Already the Internet is the
greatest machine man has ever built. It has been functioning without It is a singularity of thought, a snowball effect where individual brains will become honed
downtime since its inception many decades ago. It is a collective in certain cognitive skills. One brain might be an expert in theories of life extension,
intelligence produced by mammalian primates banging buttons on another might be an expert in philosophy. If ever a problem arises, those brains can be
keyboards. So when we follow a similar setup of the Internet and called on to help solve it (since the humans who own the brains would be receptive and
connect every human neuron together around the world, I think it is interested in solving the problem anyway). Of course, knowledge and intelligence in any
fair to say, that we'll create something far greater than any individual area can be outsourced to the hive mind. If you want expert knowledge about quantum
can understand. I think we'll create Emergent AI. theory, just think it.
AI Page 18

19. Emergent AI
Saturday, February 06, 2010 This is how emergent AI will develop. It will slowly co-
evolve with the collective hive mind, and will continue to
OK, so now the Internet as we know it is a combination of the co-exist as long as possible. Since the more input and
entire computing power of all the servers and personal feedback the AI can obtain from the human collective, the
computers plugged in, as well as the entire computing power more it learns and grows.
of every human brain connected to each other via nanobots.
As a result, I think the AI will develop goals and desires that
However there remains the problem that without human input are a collective amalgamation of the goals and desires of
(their thoughts and brain activity), then the whole system the hive mind. Thus, the AI adopts human traits, human
wouldn't operate. It seems that the created AI is just the pure goals, and human desires. Hopefully this would divert the
result of collective intelligence. Whether there would be a doomsday scenario of a rouge AI which finds humans
difference between the two is a point for contention, but just unnecessary and so kills them. Instead it is in it's best
in case this stated system isn't emergent AI, I'll add this… as interests to keep the human species as alive and happy as
possible, engaging in various activities and pursuits to Uploading ourselves fully into
the entire network matures, I can envisage the Internet cloud the AI will change us quite a
keeping records and backups of every single neural firing for produce a range of differing thoughts/ideas.
lot, but again, the cost-
each individual. By doing so, the Internet machine can actually benefit analysis will make
develop highly complex algorithms to simulate perfectly the With an automated (emergent) AI, science will progress
faster than the imagination can operate. It won't be long sense. By completely
past behaviour/thoughts/actions of the individual. removing biology and
until humans become annoyed by the limits of biology and
start replacing parts of their bodies with technologically physical hardware body
I think the human brain is just like any other computer. We replacements, we can exist as
have sensory inputs, an electrochemical black-box, and superior systems (like nanobot blood cells that can allow
you to hold your breath under water for an hour, or can pure energy. We'd be able to
physical outputs. If there is indeed no mystical aspect to the live in virtual environments of
brain, then the Internet AI will be able to do what so many of keep oxygen cycling even if you have a heart attack).
Humans can then upload their entire selves in digital form our making, interact in virtual
our current-day AGI technologies do: watch and record, to bodies with others, and of
create better algorithms. The Internet will dynamically build into the AI machine. We would still exist as separate
entities, but have become pure energy (bits of electricity) course live forever and be
our individual brain algorithms with every new thought. With
merged into the AI. And ultimately, if possible, the idea of able to travel at the speed of
such information, the AI machine will be able to perfectly
becoming a free-floating energy able to traverse the light around the Universe.
simulate you as a person in thought and behaviour from the
moment you plugged-in nanobots, to the present. Universe would be pretty neat :)
AI Page 19

20. Conclusion
Monday, February 08, 2010
I'm fairly confident that these technological paradigms are naturally occurring, or on
their way. The only areas I am currently concerned about are the Semantic Web and
Tech-Glasses. These paradigms are rather necessary to push toward AI, and I've been
seeing very little or very slow progress toward these. The Semantic Web needs
organisations to standardise their data and share it openly with the world. And the
Tech-Glasses require smaller electronics, and a beginning basic prototype; since the All of the pre-mentioned incremental technologies will each overlap
biggest issue will be cultural acceptance. and many will continue throughout the entire process. But I've tried to
show that each is important for the next paradigm to begin.
The thing I'd like you to take away from this is that AI is not likely to emerge from a
massive coordinated scientific effort, like the 1969 moon-landing. There is a chance I myself have numerous business models and ideas to hopefully help
that it could be developed that way, but it seems much more likely that AI will emerge kickstart and grow each paradigm. I'd love to see entrepreneurs
from the collective intelligence of the human species. Consumer electronics has been develop some really cool companies to become leaders in these areas
pursuing this trend of always-on, always-connected, smaller and smaller devices. It and push them to the next level.
makes sense that within the next two decades we will have the technology to
intimately, wirelessly link brains around the world. Just like how the connection, So I'd encourage you to run with these ideas, give them some thought
cooperation and communication between individual bees and ants, can produce in your spare time and point out flaws, as well as replacement ideas to
complex housing structures… by connecting human brains and merging them with our better those flaws and make the overall idea much greater… this is
current exponentially growing machine (the Internet), then a superior intelligence will one of the concepts of parallel thinking.
emerge, a god-like AI.
If these ideas manage to turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, I have
The combination of AI and nanotechnology will change the entire world, period. So absolutely no problem with that :) … it would be amazing to see AI
many of the things we take for granted, or put up with, will become incredibly develop within our lifetimes.
obsolete when AI emerges. If done correctly, humans become the gods they've always
imagined, and we'll have a scientifically created Utopia. Telepathy, teleportation, and To the future.
the manipulation of matter in real-time atom-by-atom will be common-place. Death,
disease, hunger and suffering will be non-existent relics. Creative thinking, ideas and Cheers
knowledge become the most valuable commodities in the Universe. Nathan Waters
AI Page 20

21. Evolutionary Paradigms
Thursday, February 11, 2010
This is just an interesting closing point…
Evolution from the Big Bang to today has been a process of incremental hierarchies of
complexity. These increments occur in paradigms (S-Curves when graphed out) where a
technological paradigm will advance, and then plateau before a new paradigm takes over.
You get the basic idea. What I also find interesting is that since
We've gone through the Evolution of stars, planets, through biology and are now seeing most of nature appears to operate via Chaos Theory, then a lot of
technology take-over as the latest paradigm which is accelerating faster than anything the growth, movements and patterns of the world can be
else. Evolutionary progression has always been exponential from the outset and made of a discovered and interpreted via fractal mathematics.
series of s-curve paradigms. Technology is continuing this exponential progression.
Nature is a chaotic, but mathematical system. Onto which,
I have an idea still in development that equates these paradigms and plateaus to the humans have been building a rigid civilisation built from the
phenomena between chaos and order within nature (Chaos Theory). Without chaos there Newtonian mathematical equations discovered hundreds of years
is no order, and without order there can be no chaos. Thus each s-curve is a technological ago. We've now discovered that the world operates on fractal
paradigm of chaotic nature, and each plateau is an ordering of that chaos into a platform; mathematics which constantly feed variables back through a
onto which the next paradigm can find its foundation. So for example, the chaos of feedback loop, thus producing the seemingly random and chaotic
electricity was ordered down so that we could run processors and various electronic behaviours of nature.
appliances. This then allowed for the chaos of computers, which eventually developed a
platform on the Internet. Now we're seeing the same thing occur with software, whereby The next paradigm of mathematics and the future civilisation we
a chaotic mess that is the Internet is gradually ordering itself into platforms… such as build, will be based around discoveries in fractal maths. We've
communication platforms (Reddit, Digg, Facebook, Twitter) or the more ordered platform been ordering nature to produce the platform onto which we can
of the Semantic Web… which in turn will allow for a mass of chaotic systems to emerge (AI build chaotic, fractal systems like self-replicating nanbots.
Agents).
The fact that so many systems in this world are fractal in nature is
Life itself has its platform foundation in DNA. Prior to DNA, it was a chaotic mess, until amazing, and must have applications yet to be exploited. Our
particular amino acids joined together and began replicating. Thus creating the platform neural networks, and even the Internet itself are fractal systems.
for every fragment of life in the world (which again, created another chaotic paradigm of
biological Evolution).
AI Page 21

22. Singularity
Thursday, February 11, 2010
The Singularity is a name to describe a lot of what I've just written about. It is the idea that once a super
intelligent AI is built, it will be able to self-improve at incredibly rapid speeds… and eventually it will hit a
point where its intelligence and knowledge become far greater than humans could possibly imagine.
How the world changes after that point simply cannot be known.
The concept has been thrown around for many decades now, but it was science fiction writer, Vernor
Vinge, who popularised the idea in a 1993 essay. A famous quote of his is "Within thirty years, we will
have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be
ended". Currently the leader in this realm is Ray Kurzweil, and I thoroughly recommend you read his
book, The Singularity is Near. He makes the case for the Singularity occurring around the year 2045 and
gives proof of historical trends and current research to make his point. The amount of detail and data in
his book is quite amazing.
As you read more about the Technological Singularity and its potential impacts on the world, most
people would agree that sometime in the future (provided humans survive) that we'll produce AI and it
will self-improve. However the thing that us humans fail drastically with, is the difference between
linear and exponential thinking. Our brains have evolved in line with our environments. Thus to
anticipate where a predator would be in X seconds required forward linear thinking. With information
If you want to learn more about the
technology though, things progress exponentially. Instead of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 … exponentially you
Singularity, checkout these sites:
have 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512 and thus there is a large discrepancy.
Singularity Summit
The price/performance of computing is doubling every year. So that roughly every Christmas, there are
Singularity University
computers at twice the speed for half the price. And what's more, this doubling used to occur every 18
Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
months. The time required to achieve exponential growth is shrinking. By plotting out the simplest of
SingularityHub
paradigms, Moore's Law, we can accurately predict the price/performance rate of computing power
within say 10 years. Further extrapolations can be accomplished looking at various other technological
trends such as the amount of information, the capacity of storage, the resolution of brain scanning etc.
AI Page 22