2. -On April 15, 1961, the first part of the invasion took place. Eight B-
29 bombers supplied by the CIA bombed Cuban military aircraft on
the ground at several locations. Later, a B-26 bearing Cuban
markings and marked with bullet-holes landed at Miami
International Airport. The goal being to make the raids on Cuba
earlier that morning look like an internal action by defecting Cuban
pilots. On April 17 was the date when the actual invasion took place
where, most of their equipment, ammunition, and food sunk.
There was also a lack of soldiers and were outnumbered by the
Cuban soldiers. The battle continued up to the 20th.
3. On October 14, 1962 a U2 plane flew over Cuba and was able to snap
photographs of what seemed to be missiles.
On October 15, the National Photographic Interpretation Center of the
U.S identified that these were medium range ballistic missiles.
4. On Oct 16, The President and the national defence officials are briefed with what has happened and
the photographs were shown to them. The Executive Committee of the National Security Council is
established.
On Oct 17, The EX- COMM has been discussing what to make of the situation, and the Air Force
strongly argued for an air strike. Another U2 spy plane was able to photograph an additional
intermediate range ballistic missiles.
On Oct 18, JFK and the Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko had a meeting concerning the missiles
in Cuba. According to Gromyko these missiles were only there for defence purposes. Most of the
members of the EX- COMM decided to go for a blockade, however there wasn’t a consensus.
On Oct 19, JFK left for a campaign trip.
On Oct 20, Kennedy returns home from the campaign trip. He was able to discuss together with the
top advisers concerning their policy. They’re still quite confused, however, if they want to go for an air
strike or a quarantine.
On Oct 21, General Walter Sweeny of the Tactical Air Command informs the President that air strikes
cannot totally guarantee the destruction of these missiles. In Kennedy’s speech addressing the nation
he will be making use of the word quarantine instead of blockade, seeing that the word blockade is
considered as an act of war.
5. On Oct 22, The Information concerning the plans of the U.S were
disseminated to their allies. Military alert reached DEFCON 3. Planes with
Nuclear Bombs were already on stand by in case Cuba decides to respond
militarily. The President was live on air at 7pm to address to the citizens of the
U.S, called as the “Highest National Urgency” the current state that they are in
and his plan of action of the U.S. But also on that day, before his speech, a
copy of the speech was sent to Kruschev.
On Oct 23, In the morning Kennedy ordered 6 Jets to fly above Cuba and take some more
Photographs to get a closer look at these missiles. Also, the Organization of American States
gave their full support to quarantine, understanding that they too can be affected if these
missiles were to be launched. It was also settled that the quarantine would start at 10 a.m of the
24th . Robert Kennedy meets with Ambassador Dobrynin at the Soviet Embassy, according the
Soviet he honestly did not know anything about the matter. Also, the Secretary General’s advice
was to postpone the quarantine, until after 3 weeks, to give JFK and Kruschev a longer time to
come up with their Foreign Policy.
6. Members
McGeorge Bundy the assistant to the president for national security affairs
George Ball the under secretary of state
C. Douglas Dillon secretary of the Treasury
Lyndon B. Johnson vice president
John F. Kennedy President
Robert F. Kennedy attorney general
Arthur Lundahl director of the National Photographic Interpretation Center
Edwin Martin assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs
Gen. Maxwell Taylor chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Marshall Carter deputy director Central Intelligence Agency
Robert McNamara secretary of defense
Dean Rusk secretary of state
Sidney Graybeal Central Intelligence Agency
7. On Oct 24, the quarantine started at 10 a.m. As the U.S Ships were about to somehow move
the USSR submarines up to the surface, because it was blocking the path of the USSR
ships, 20 USSR ships turned around and didn’t anymore pursue the travel, while 6 more
ships remained moving towards the Cuba.
On Oct 25, The offer given by the United Nations Secretary General was turned down by
JFK. Also on that day, the Ambassador Adlai Stevenson confronted the Soviet Ambassador
Zorin in the U.N and asked about their purpose for having placed the missiles in Cuba, the
Soviet refused to comment on the matter, the U.S ambassador then showed the
photographs, a clear evidence of Soviet missiles in Cuba.
On Oct 26, The U.S ship allowed the Marcula ship of the USSR to go through the
blockade, because they were not carrying any missiles or anything that could effectively
harm the U.S. The EX-COMM and JFK are now starting to believe that a “quarantine” alone
will not remove the missiles in Cuba. Which led them to the assumption that there were
only 2 choices left. It was either they proceed with and air strike and then an invasion right
after or an agreement of removing their missiles in Turkey and Italy, for the removal of the
missiles in Cuba. But the most important event of that day is letter sent by Kruschev to JFK.
Kruschev promised to remove the missiles in Cuba as long as they promised not to invade
Cuba.
8. You and I should not now pull on the ends of the rope in which you have tied a
knot of war, because the harder you and I pull, the tighter the knot will become.
And a time may come when this knot is tied so tight that the person who tied it
is no longer capable of untying it, and then the knot will have to be cut. What
that would mean I need not explain to you, because you yourself understand
perfectly what dread forces our two countries possess.
I propose we, for our part, will declare that our ships bound for Cuba are not
carrying any armaments. You will declare that the United States will not invade
Cuba with its troops and will not support any other forces which might intend to
invade Cuba. Then the necessity of the presence of our military specialists in
Cuba will disappear.
9. On Oct 27, A U-2 plane was shot, killing the pilot, Major Rudolph Anderson. Also on
this day, A letter from Kruschev was sent to Kennedy with a very different proposal to
that of the first letter.
This is why I make this proposal: We agree to
remove those weapons from Cuba which you
regard as offensive weapons. We agree to do
this and to state this commitment in the
United Nations. Your representatives will make
a statement to effect that the United States, on
its part, bearing in mind the anxiety and
concern of the Soviet state, will evacuate its
analogous weapons from Turkey. Let us reach
an understanding on what time you and we
need to put this into effect.
The EX- COMM decides to respond to the 1st
letter instead.
10. Later that night, Robert Kennedy and Anatoly Dobrynin
discussed U.S plans to remove the missiles in Turkey in a few
months and that’s why the USSR should remove its missiles in
Cuba, but if this information was leaked to the public or aired
in any way, R. Kennedy assured that the U.S would deny such
claims and would call off the agreement.
11.
12. In order to eliminate as rapidly as possible the
conflict which endangers the cause of peace,
to give an assurance to all people who crave
peace, and to reassure the American people,
who, I am certain, also want peace, as do the
people of the Soviet Union, the Soviet
Government, in addition to earlier instructions
on the discontinuation of further work on
weapons construction sites, has given a new
order to dismantle the arms which you
describe to be offensive, and to crate and
return them to the Soviet Union.
13. Views the state’s actions as that of a rational person. As a
rational person, before one comes up with a decision, he
would first consider all of his options and adroitly choose the
one that would maximize his benefits while minimizing the
harms.
1. Why did the Soviet Union decide to place missiles in Cuba?
2. Why did the U.S Respond to the Missile deployment with a blockade?
3. Why did the Soviet Union withdraw the missiles?
14. 1.Why did the Soviet Union decide to place
missiles in Cuba?
Hypothesis 1: Cuban Defense
Bay of Pigs
- There was fear on the part of the U.S.S.R that the fact
that the bay of pigs was a complete failure, the U.S might
want to redeem itself. The USSR wanted to prevent another
invasion.
Operation Mongoose
- The CIA plan to stir up a revolution in Cuba.
15. Flaws
- Missiles were too much for defence purposes.
A sizeable number of troops could’ve been
used to deter invasions.
- The Soviets and Cuba could have signed
public defence treaty, to assure that if the U.S
would try to invade, they will support Cuba
militarily.
- The missiles placed in Cuba were too much.
16. Hypothesis 2: Cold War Politics
-A competition of power and pre-eminence
between the USSR and the U.S
-To try to show to the international community
that the U.S cannot even prevent the
advancement of USSR power even in their own
hemisphere, therefore other states would favor
the USSR more, because of the perceived power.
17. Flaws
-MRBM’s would have been enough to threaten
and possibly intimidate the U.S
-Why try to probe firmness of the U.S after the
American stand on Berlin in 1961?
18. Hypothesis 3: Missile Power
-Power Stability between the USSR and the U.S
-Missiles in Turkey and Greece.
-If there happens to be a war between the U.S
and the USSR, the USSR can attack the allies of
the U.S, but not the U.S, because of it’s
distance.
-“Even the playing field”
20. 2. Why did the United
States Respond to the
Missile Deployment with a
Blockade?
21. Alternative 1: Do Nothing
• If the U.S did not have acted on the situation it
would have been reckless on their part, given
that the U.S already did try to invade Cuba in
the past.
22. Alternative 2: Diplomatic Pressures
• A secret Ultimatum to Kruschev demanding a
removal of the missiles and providing ample time for
him to comply, without the need for military action.
• Be settled through the U.N, as advised by Adlai
Stevenson.
23. Alternative 3: Secret Approach to
Castro
• “Split of fall”
• Castro might break with Moscow if he thought
he was in deadly jeopardy
24. Alternative 4: Invasion
• There were already Contingency plans if ever
this was considered, although this would
probably be the last resort because JFK did
not want the event to herald into a war. Also,
this would cost a lot of money.
25. Alternative 5: Air Strike
• An air strike can possibly damage these
missiles and kill the people in charge of these
missiles, however there is no 100% assurance
that it can damage to the point of it not
working anymore.
26. Alternative 6: Blockade
• A blockade was what they came up with.
Although they used a different word that
made a huge difference. “Quarantine”, instead
of “blockade”, the reason why they had to
change this, according to Mcnamara was
because blockade is considered to be an act of
war.
27. 3.Why did the Soviet Union
withdraw their missiles from
Cuba?
29. In this model, the process of decision making involves a
variety of pre determined solutions in which can plausibly
solve the problem at hand. This is quite different from the
rational actor model in a way where in the Organizational
process you have to consider not the state’s decision as a
whole, but the intricacies of that certain decision.
Decisions are not made from scratch but have already been
planned before.
The head of the state can come up with novel ideas, although
what is usually the case is that he is given options to choose
from.
30. 1. To engage Castro and Khrushchev on the
diplomatic stage in a gamble to resolve the crisis
openly -- an option which most members of EX-
COMM deemed unlikely to succeed.
2. A blockade against offensive weapons entering
Cuba.
3.Military action directed against Cuba, starting
with an air attack against the missiles
31.
32. Bureaucratic Politics
• The process of decision making involves a
hierarchical way of choosing decisions.
• Your ability to contribute, is ideally based on
the power you posses within the Government.
• Results of given problems and situations went
through a lot of
negotiation, lobbying, arguments, and
conflicts within the Government.
