Wisdom of crowds and AHP for Rural eGovernance

IIPA
Indian Institute of Public Administration
Workshop on
Rural e Governance Round Table t i n g
craf innovation together

A Decision Framework for Rural e-Governance
Initiatives combining The Wisdom of Crowds with
the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
crafting innovation together

www.crafitti.com
navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com

September 16-17, 2010
Confidential New Delhi

What have we done …..

• We have asked a group of Experts (Chosen)
– What key attributes should be considered while
designing a rural e-Governance Initiative?
• We have asked them in multiple Delphi rounds a simple question for each of
the attributes in Yes, No, Can’t say format

Results are available in %age terms, such as …..

• 99% of experts believe that
Citizen Characteristics
should be included while
designing a citizen centric
rural e-governance Initiative

Confidential © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. September 23, 2010 2

Can these %ages be considered as relative
importance of each of the attributes? crafting innovation together

Obviously not…

Information Theory tells us ….

If the likelihood/probability of all
alternatives/attributes is uniform (equal likely)
– then there is no information.


Do the Experts Really Know?

"... after a few more flashes in the pan, we shall hear very little more of Edison or his electric
lamp. Every claim he makes has been tested and proved impracticable." [New York Times,
January 16, 1880]
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."[Lord Kelvin,
president, Royal Society, 1895]

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value."
[Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure
de Guerre]
"Fooling around with alternating

current is just a waste of time.
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“ Nobody will use it, ever."
[Thomas Watson, chairman IBM, 1943] [Thomas Edison, 1889]

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their "There is not the slightest indication
home." that nuclear energy will ever be
[Ken Olson, Chairman and founder Digital Equipment obtainable. It would mean that the
Corp., 1977] atom would have to be shattered at
will."
"640K ought to be enough for anybody." [Albert Einstein, 1932]
[Bill Gates, 1981]

WISDOM OF CROWDS

• Collective Intelligence can be brought to bear on a wide variety of problems,
and complexity is no bar
– Cognition Problems – have/will have definite
solutions (who will win the World cup?)
– Coordination Problems – members of a group to find
out how to coordinate their behaviour with each

other (how can you drive safely in heavy traffic?)
– Cooperation Problems – challenges of getting self-
interested, distrustful people to work together
(paying taxes, dealing with pollution)

James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds – Why the Many Are Smarter than
the Confidential
Few © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. September 23, 2010 9

WISDOM OF CROWDS

Individual Experts may not know about the whole;
however a crowd knows more than what the individual
knows provided

• The crowd is composed of diverse set of individuals
• They are independent of each other

• Paradoxically, the best way for a group to be smart is for each person in it
to think and act as independently as possible

James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds – Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few

We need….

To include the crowd – rather than thinking about
experts

Secondly we need to ask the right question – How
much relative importance be given to each

attribute rather with respect to the constructs
and overall goal …

We propose … The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Estimating the relative importance of each
attribute to evaluate /decide ReGI options

• A Proposal
– Combining the Wisdom of Crowds with the Analytic
Hierarchy Process (AHP)
 Similar to Decision Matrix approach but allows a wider
range of values in comparison of alternatives
 Developed by T.L. Saaty (1980)

 AHP invites pair-wise qualitative comparisons
 The problem is organized as a hierarchy

Bhushan N. and Rai K., Strategic Decision Making – Applying the Analytic
Hierarchy Process, Springer, 2004


The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two:
Some Limits on our Capacity for cProcessingi oInformation
rafting innovat n together

George A. Miller (1956)
Harvard University
First published in Psychological Review, 63, 81-97.

[1] This paper was first read as an Invited Address before the Eastern Psychological Association in Philadelphia on April 15, 1955.

The point seems to be that,
as we add more variables to
the display, we increase the
total capacity, but we

decrease the accuracy for
any particular variable. In
other words, we can make
relatively crude judgments of
several things simultaneously.

Confidential

Why AHP ?

Qualitative Inputs Sound Mathematical Basis

Pairwise comparisons Consistency Evaluation
Gartner
Reduces Complexity of decision by organizing it in structured
format
Promotes comparison of homogeneous characteristics

Framework to check logical consistency
Facilitates What if Scenarios
It undermines Political Agendas
Facilitates Senior Managers’ buy-in
Confidential


AHP for ReGI

Confidential
15

The Initial Hierarchy
Rural e-Government Initiative (ReGI) Design

Citizen Goal-Task Environment e-Technology
Characteristics (CC) Characteristics (GTC) Characteristics (EC) Characteristics (eTC)
(GTC) (GTC) (GTC)
 Educational background  Tasks Composing the  Prevailing traditional  User –controlled interactive
of citizens in the region Goal techniques, skills, tools for interface
 Prime occupation of  Priority of the task for addressing the governance  Representational Vividness of
citizens in the region the achievement of Goal issue/ task. services offered by use of
 Subsidiary occupations  Type of the task (Simple  Local resources (material) multimedia techniques as
of citizens in the region Task/Decision Task/ available in the community, to animation/narration
 Income slabs of citizens Judgment Task/Problem address the governance  Availability of local content and
in the region Task/ Fuzzy Task) issue/task. information
 Social composition of  Core task characteristics  Prevailing beliefs of the  Use of local language
citizens in the region  Method/technology community for the governance  Design of multiple access
such as schedule being currently used to issue/ task. mechanisms

tribe/schedule address the task  History of all other traditional  Social Support to initiative:
caste/other backward  Time required to solutions to address the acceptance/awareness of
classes accomplish the task governance issue/task. technology in the region
 Ability of citizens in the using present  Whether there is continuity  Political support to initiative
region to access method/technology between traditional skills and from the elected
technology related to e-  Information generated methods and the present representatives and higher
governance initiative by the task method to address the task. administrative officers of the
(Computer self-  Complexity of the task  Any other Details of state/district
efficiency) using present collaborative development of  Technical support to initiative:
 Experience of citizens in method/technology knowledge pertaining to Hardware availability, software
the region with profession (farming, upgradeability support Details
technology related to manufacture, forest products, of indigenous means of
ReGI health and nutrition) reaching out to Community
Details of indigenous means of such as community
reaching out to Community such celebrations , festivals and get-
as community celebrations , togethers
festivals and get-togethers  Details of health issues, natural
Details of health issues, natural disasters endemic to the region
disasters endemic to the region
Figure 1: The ReGI Design Evaluation Hierarchy
Confidential

Rural e-Government Initiative (ReGI) Design

Citizen Goal-Task Environment e-Technology Regional
Characteristics Characteris Characteristics Characteristicsa f t i n g i n nCharacteristicso g e t h e r
cr ovation t
(CC) tics (GTC) (EC) (eTC) (RC)
(GTC)
 Computer self -  Time required to  Traditional gov.  Availability of  Geographical
efficiency accomplish the solutions local Indicators
 Gender task  Local resources content/informati  Infrastructure
 Educational  Priority of the task for gov. on Available
background  Method/technolo  Indigenous  Use of local  Primary Language of
 Prime occupation gy Communication language Communication
 Income slabs  Using present means  Cost of Access  Critical Governance
 Social method/technolo  History of  Technical support needs of the region
composition gy traditional gov  Physical security  Citizen Groups
 Subsidiary  Tasks Composing sol. & H/W Security  Social
occupations  Information  health, natural issues networks/bonding
 Citizens’ generated by the disasters endemic  Training of  Accessibility
Awareness/Acce task  Collaborative stakeholders  Local technical
ptance  Cost of the task develop. of  Social Support resources available
 Technology Exp.  Time Saved for knowledge  Data  Bureaucratic setup
 Age Profile the task using  Beliefs for gov. management & relation with gov.
 Community ReGI  Continuity b/w Attributes

specifications  Feedback traditional &  Representational
 Sample study of  Sustainability and present method Vividness of
Citizen’s daily Revenue task  Local Culture & services
routine  Core task Traditions  Design of multiple
 Family members characteristics  Community access
 Importance of responses in past mechanisms
task to citizen situations  User–controlled
 Participatory rules reaching out to interactive
for citizens Community such interface
 Re-engineering as community  Available IT
specifications celebrations , Resources
 Measurability of festivals and get -  Political support
goal togethers  Maintenance
 Type of the task  Details of health Mechanisms
 Analysis of issues, natural  Feedback about
inter/intra disasters endemi c the technology
dependencies to the region  Regional demand
 Task performance for the technology
 Information
gathering
Confidential strategies © Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd. September 23, 2010 17

Pairwise Comparisons


Confidential

Pairwise Comparisons


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√ √
√

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√
√

Confidential

Relative Weights Derivation and Consistency
Evaluation

Confidential

Top Level Radar Plot


Confidential

Similar Process for sub level of each construct


Confidential

Relative Global Weights for All Attributes


Confidential

Consensus Creation with Multiple Experts
(Next Steps)

Weights Variation Chart with
Normalized Geometric Means

5.32%

7.68%

4.86% Process/Tools

Documentation
14.40%
External

19.23% Constraints
Stability
15.32%
Complexity

9.45% Staffing Constraints

19.17% Expertise

4.57%

0.0000 0.1000 0.2000 0.3000 0.4000
Weights

Confidential

http://www.crafitti.com

Crafitti helps in crafting
innovation in Business,
Science and Technology.

Your Innovation Think Tank

• Navneet Bhushan, Co-crafter
• Founder Director| Crafitti Consulting Pvt Ltd |www.crafitti.com
• +91-9902766961 |+91-80-41688077
• (navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com)
• 1B-401, Akme Harmony, Amblipura, Sarjapur Outer Ring Road,
Bangalore 560037, INDIA
Confidential 26 September 23, 2010

Wisdom of crowds and AHP for Rural eGovernance

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